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Early Spring Banter Thread


IsentropicLift

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8th - 12th looking very warm.  Of course this is still more than a week away and we have to be weary of backdoor cold fronts but we'll likely see our first widespread 70s and maybe 80s for some in this setup.

 

 

test8.gif

Usually when there's a trough NE of us like that over the Maritimes, there's a backdoor cold front. I'd be very cautious about forecasting warmth here (especially the city east and north) with that around.

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Euro had a costal storm for the end of next week. Then brings the warmth mid month

Gfs had the costal also. It's pretty strong with the system. A good amount of rain and wind verbatim

 

I remember some saying that if the northern stream for the Febraury 8 2013 system "Nemo" were to dive in sooner, it would be a colder system. Wouldn't surprise me to see the same thing here. Very chilly rain verbatim.

 

f138.gif

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March will end with a max of 59 in Central Park...That's the 22nd time the max March temp was below 60...March will end up averaging 40.1...Minimum was 27...tied for the sixth warmest on record...

warmest monthly min
33 1942
30 1973
29 1931
29 2010
28 1903
27 1958
27 2008
27 2013

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The GFS isn't so bullish any more with the impending warm spell. A few ensemble members do go crazy and show a heat wave but overall not as warm as before.

 

The Euro continues to show almost nothing for the late week storm threat and a huge ridge by Day 7. The GEFS mean is in agreement. This isn't a very difficult forecast. 

 

test8.gif

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Tuesday looks like one of those days that the winds may come in above guidance with such a deep

mixed layer. We could see very dry conditions with low afternoon dewpoints and RH for the first

week of April here. Several spots may get a taste of some early April 20's Wednesday morning with

near record low temperatures possible.

 

3 lowest April 3rd  temperatures JFK:

 

4/3 29 in 2008 31 in 1978 31 in 1965

 

 

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We have to watch for a high to build in SE Canada and/or an easterly flow develop due to the troughiness in eastern Canada as the ridge builds in. If those happen, we could have raw, nasty conditions while the Midwest and South warm up instead. A warm regime is never a given around here this time of year.

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We have to watch for a high to build in SE Canada and/or an easterly flow develop due to the troughiness in eastern Canada as the ridge builds in. If those happen, we could have raw, nasty conditions while the Midwest and South warm up instead. A warm regime is never a given around here this time of year.

The models have indeed backed off the warmth, or at least delayed it. I noticed this on the 12z ECM OP, which picked up on the GFS idea of trough amplification behind a weak Miller A low pressure system. This trough amplification brings in another chilly airmass, around -5C@850mb, for Saturday and Sunday. By Day 10, a ridge does look to be developing over the area, but it's probably correct that the Midwest warms more with NYC receiving alternating shots of cool and warm. That may not be enough to offset the very cold departures that will characterize the first week of April, though I do think sustained warmth may arrive later on, at least by 4/20. 

 

Tuesday looks like one of those days that the winds may come in above guidance with such a deep

mixed layer. We could see very dry conditions with low afternoon dewpoints and RH for the first

week of April here. Several spots may get a taste of some early April 20's Wednesday morning with

near record low temperatures possible.

 

3 lowest April 3rd  temperatures JFK:

 

4/3 29 in 2008 31 in 1978 31 in 1965

 

attachicon.gifSND.gif

 

attachicon.giff39.gif

Really impressive to see -13C 850s over the area Wednesday morning: that's mid-winter cold. NWS has 43/26 Tuesday and 42/26 Wednesday here, which is around a -12F departure. They have 47/37 Friday, which is around -5F departure. April is definitely going to start off on a chilly note.

 

After the front passage, I've dropped to 40.1/24. Will be nice to get a few freezes to start the month. Can't remember many hard freezes in spring in recent years. 

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