MJO812 Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 CPC is on board for warmer weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 8th - 12th looking very warm. Of course this is still more than a week away and we have to be weary of backdoor cold fronts but we'll likely see our first widespread 70s and maybe 80s for some in this setup. Usually when there's a trough NE of us like that over the Maritimes, there's a backdoor cold front. I'd be very cautious about forecasting warmth here (especially the city east and north) with that around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 Euro had a costal storm for the end of next week. Then brings the warmth mid month Gfs had the costal also. It's pretty strong with the system. A good amount of rain and wind verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 Euro had a costal storm for the end of next week. Then brings the warmth mid month Gfs had the costal also. It's pretty strong with the system. A good amount of rain and wind verbatim I remember some saying that if the northern stream for the Febraury 8 2013 system "Nemo" were to dive in sooner, it would be a colder system. Wouldn't surprise me to see the same thing here. Very chilly rain verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 If only it was still winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 If only it was still winter Lol we finally get a miller A moisture packed system but its too warm because it'll be April, just our luck. Instead it's going to be a windy, chilly rainy day with temps probably around 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 Looks like high clouds are moving in now. Very limited sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 Lol we finally get a miller A moisture packed system but its too warm because it'll be April, just our luck. Instead it's going to be a windy, chilly rainy day with temps probably around 40. It's 150 hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 It's 150 hrs out Not that i think we are getting any frozen from it, but to act like the storm already happened this far out is not a good idea. It could easily be nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 March will end with a max of 59 in Central Park...That's the 22nd time the max March temp was below 60...March will end up averaging 40.1...Minimum was 27...tied for the sixth warmest on record... warmest monthly min33 194230 197329 193129 201028 190327 195827 200827 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 Big storm signal on all the models for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
socar2001 Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 Big storm signal on all the models for next weekend. Snow88, What days are you talking about? We are visiting NYC for first time beginning Thursday and have a tour scheduled for Friday. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 March will finish here with a mean temp of 39.0 which is 2.5 degrees below normal and the 9th coldest in 35 years of record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2013 Author Share Posted March 31, 2013 This coastal threat is nothing new, the models have been honking since 300hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 This coastal threat is nothing new, the models have been honking since 300hrs out. Euro was not impressive today. The streams are very disjointed. Gfs also backed off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 glad today wasn't a snow event. less than a tenth of an inch areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Big storm signal on all the models for next weekend. Just in time for wrestlemania at MetLife? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Euro was not impressive today. The streams are very disjointed. Gfs also backed off GFS now shows a big rainstorm http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_6z/avnloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 13th snowiest march in history at ewr 6th at bdr 8th ISP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Front has passed now, 47/40 off a high of 64.5F. Chilly NW winds kicking in with a forecasted low of 27F tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Spring cancel. Just dropped 10 degrees since noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 The GFS isn't so bullish any more with the impending warm spell. A few ensemble members do go crazy and show a heat wave but overall not as warm as before. Very windy right now. Had a few gusts near 40mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 44 right now with a high of 62 earlier! Damn it's cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 The GFS isn't so bullish any more with the impending warm spell. A few ensemble members do go crazy and show a heat wave but overall not as warm as before. The Euro continues to show almost nothing for the late week storm threat and a huge ridge by Day 7. The GEFS mean is in agreement. This isn't a very difficult forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Tuesday looks like one of those days that the winds may come in above guidance with such a deep mixed layer. We could see very dry conditions with low afternoon dewpoints and RH for the first week of April here. Several spots may get a taste of some early April 20's Wednesday morning with near record low temperatures possible. 3 lowest April 3rd temperatures JFK: 4/3 29 in 2008 31 in 1978 31 in 1965 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 The Euro continues to show almost nothing for the late week storm threat and a huge ridge by Day 7. The GEFS mean is in agreement. This isn't a very difficult forecast. I was talking in regards to 2mT. The ridge will be there, no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Pattern looks progressive next week so the ridge won't be sustained for days on end. The 18z gfs shows this quite well. There could be some very warm days but there could be some much cooler days mixed in as well, which is very typical for April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 We have to watch for a high to build in SE Canada and/or an easterly flow develop due to the troughiness in eastern Canada as the ridge builds in. If those happen, we could have raw, nasty conditions while the Midwest and South warm up instead. A warm regime is never a given around here this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 We have to watch for a high to build in SE Canada and/or an easterly flow develop due to the troughiness in eastern Canada as the ridge builds in. If those happen, we could have raw, nasty conditions while the Midwest and South warm up instead. A warm regime is never a given around here this time of year. The models have indeed backed off the warmth, or at least delayed it. I noticed this on the 12z ECM OP, which picked up on the GFS idea of trough amplification behind a weak Miller A low pressure system. This trough amplification brings in another chilly airmass, around -5C@850mb, for Saturday and Sunday. By Day 10, a ridge does look to be developing over the area, but it's probably correct that the Midwest warms more with NYC receiving alternating shots of cool and warm. That may not be enough to offset the very cold departures that will characterize the first week of April, though I do think sustained warmth may arrive later on, at least by 4/20. Tuesday looks like one of those days that the winds may come in above guidance with such a deep mixed layer. We could see very dry conditions with low afternoon dewpoints and RH for the first week of April here. Several spots may get a taste of some early April 20's Wednesday morning with near record low temperatures possible. 3 lowest April 3rd temperatures JFK: 4/3 29 in 2008 31 in 1978 31 in 1965 SND.gif f39.gif Really impressive to see -13C 850s over the area Wednesday morning: that's mid-winter cold. NWS has 43/26 Tuesday and 42/26 Wednesday here, which is around a -12F departure. They have 47/37 Friday, which is around -5F departure. April is definitely going to start off on a chilly note. After the front passage, I've dropped to 40.1/24. Will be nice to get a few freezes to start the month. Can't remember many hard freezes in spring in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 Today was a chilly day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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