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Early Spring Banter Thread


IsentropicLift

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Ruggie tried to get a forum going and only a few folks were posting regularly and now he doesn't even post there - not going to be easy......

I have enough friends/contacts on this site that it shouldn't be terribly difficult. It's not going be larger than this site but then again, that's not what my goal is.

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Exactly, maybe not along the immediate coast but this looks like 60's even for NYC. Not sure what else can be expected this time of year for the folks feeling the effects from the cool ocean temps.

 

I can tell you without a doubt that models tend to over do the effect of the cool ocean temps. Seen it happen too many times before. 

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Or how about earlier than that...DGEX well into the mid 60's on Monday

 

f096.gif

 

The blocking has really taken a huge hit in the modeling these past 2 days, as well as the overall wintry pattern look. Good sign of a gradual pattern change into warmer weather

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Well obviously we're going to see warmth in here eventually, it is almost April. We've almost never made it through the April 1st-10th period without at least one 60 degree day. Per Uncle W's stats, since 1950, only 2003 featured no 60s in the first 10 days of April. So I wouldn't necessarily consider a 60 degree day a sign of a sustained warmer than normal pattern. Keep in mind average highs for the first week of April are around 56-57F, so a 60 degree high is just slightly above normal for this time of year. A 60F high would be quite meaningful in the Dec 1st-March 15th period, but it's not at all exciting for the beginning of April. If we had a shot at 70F+, now that would be a different story. Heck, we've hit 70s on numerous occasions in early/mid March before, so 60F on April 1st is pretty run of the mill.

 

I think April 2nd is probably our last shot at wintry weather though, as the late week sern stream Miller A looks to be disjointed from the nern stream and thus lacking any real intensity or cold air in the mid levels. It'll probably be a rainer or a miss out to sea. It's unfortunate as some northern stream phasing could result in a more wintry outcome, particularly for the interior Northeast. I think the interior may see a couple more shots of snowfall. As for the coastal plain, the frontal short wave for Tuesday morning looks like the best chance. We've got sufficiently cold 850's and surface temps surprisingly would be near freezing, impressive for early April. The 18z GFS indicates this potential for the nern mid atlantic, but that will of course change in future runs. Perfect timing is needed with this one as well.

 

We missed our snow potential in late March due to the 50/50 vortex being a bit too far SW and thus presenting too much confluence to get the solid vv's up to NYC's latitude. Glad to see the mid atlantic, DC-BWI-DE-SNJ crew finally made out with a decent event though.

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We missed our snow potential in late March due to the 50/50 vortex being a bit too far SW and thus presenting too much confluence to get the solid vv's up to NYC's latitude. Glad to see the mid atlantic, DC-BWI-DE-SNJ crew finally made out with a decent event though.

 

It's maddening to watch this loop of the last several days on the RAP re-analysis because most of the major features are in perfect position. But if you look carefully, that last vort lobe that comes around the back edge of the ULL to the north really helped with a last minute push of confluence and dry air. Awful. 

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RUCANL/rucloop.html

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The 06z gfs really killed any shot at 60 for Monday and Sunday looks rather wet and probably around 50F.

On the other hand it's showing signs of Spring warm but its still over a week away. The first few days of April are going to be downright chilly though, only 40s for highs, 20s for lows especially the suburbs.

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