Early Spring Banter Thread

[pazzo83]

Euro shows no signs of warm weather at all except for many a day or two of 50s and 60s.

 

I'd be pretty surprised if we have many days below 50 for highs once we get into April.  Avg high during the April 1-15 period since 1970 is 58.07 F.  A high below 50 is only a 1 standard deviation event for the period, but it's still difficult to string together days of something that has roughly a 1 in 6 chance of occurring.

 

For reference, take a look at the March 15-31 period.  Avg high since 1970 is 52.78, and a high below 40F is about a 1.25 sigma event.  How many days below 40 did we have?  By my count, we had 2 (3/17 and 3/18).

[Stormlover74]

I'd be pretty surprised if we have many days below 50 for highs once we get into April.  Avg high during the April 1-15 period since 1970 is 58.07 F.  A high below 50 is only a 1 standard deviation event for the period, but it's still difficult to string together days of something that has roughly a 1 in 6 chance of occurring.

 

For reference, take a look at the March 15-31 period.  Avg high since 1970 is 52.78, and a high below 40F is about a 1.25 sigma event.  How many days below 40 did we have?  By my count, we had 2 (3/17 and 3/18).

Last April featured only 7 days below 60 and none below 50.

 

April 2011 had a high of 47 on the 1st, 2008 and 2009 each had 1 day.

 

Consequently the last chilly April we had, 2007, had a whopping 10 days in the 40s between the 1st and the 16th before finally getting into a springlike pattern to end the month. That also featured the wettest day in April history with the nor'easter on the 15th and traces of snow on the 5th and 8th.

[IsentropicLift]

I'd be pretty surprised if we have many days below 50 for highs once we get into April.  Avg high during the April 1-15 period since 1970 is 58.07 F.  A high below 50 is only a 1 standard deviation event for the period, but it's still difficult to string together days of something that has roughly a 1 in 6 chance of occurring.

 

For reference, take a look at the March 15-31 period.  Avg high since 1970 is 52.78, and a high below 40F is about a 1.25 sigma event.  How many days below 40 did we have?  By my count, we had 2 (3/17 and 3/18).

You can be surprised all you want. I went frame by frame through the 12z Euro and reported what it showed. If it snows next week are you going to call the a mirage?

 

If want warmth, should have stayed in Miami.

[pazzo83]

Last April featured only 7 days below 60 and none below 50.

 

April 2011 had a high of 47 on the 1st, 2008 and 2009 each had 1 day.

 

Consequently the last chilly April we had, 2007, had a whopping 10 days in the 40s between the 1st and the 16th before finally getting into a springlike pattern to end the month. That also featured the wettest day in April history with the nor'easter on the 15th and traces of snow on the 5th and 8th.

 

It would take some consistent cloud cover/storminess to get a run of days below 50.  In the stretch you mention, we had a streak of 6 (4/4 to 4/9), half of which reported some precip.  If we get sun, chances are we'll be above 50.

 

Of note, March 2007 was pretty warm in it's latter half, with 7 days between the 15 and 31 above 60 and one day (3/27/07 ironically) with a high of 78.

[pazzo83]

You can be surprised all you want. I went frame by frame through the 12z Euro and reported what it showed. If it snows next week are you going to call the a mirage?

 

If want warmth, should have stayed in Miami.

 

Model errors in terms of 2m temps past 6-7 days are pretty significant.

[IsentropicLift]

Model errors in terms of 2m temps past 6-7 days are pretty significant.

The blocking over SE Canada mirrors what we saw last week. The pattern is anything but conductive for east coast warmth.

[Stormlover74]

It would take some consistent cloud cover/storminess to get a run of days below 50.  In the stretch you mention, we had a streak of 6 (4/4 to 4/9), half of which reported some precip.  If we get sun, chances are we'll be above 50.

 

Of note, March 2007 was pretty warm in it's latter half, with 7 days between the 15 and 31 above 60 and one day (3/27/07 ironically) with a high of 78.

Right. Unless we get a 2003 repeat, 2007 is probably the worst case scenario right now. 3 degrees below normal for the month, a ton of precip and still our coldest day was 44/30

[earthlight]

The blocking over SE Canada mirrors what we saw last week. The pattern is anything but conductive for east coast warmth.

The blocking to the north over Canada and Greenland is actually far less impressive in terms of height anomalies in the mid levels. It is still pretty reluctant to leave, though.

[IsentropicLift]

The blocking to the north over Canada and Greenland is actually far less impressive in terms of height anomalies in the mid levels. It is still pretty reluctant to leave, though.

On the 12z GFS the blocking was reinforced by the coastal that we get around day 7. That system is non existent on the 12z Euro resulting in a slightly more progressive pattern. This led to a breakdown of the PNA ridge out west and mucked up the pattern for the day ten threat. The storm around day 7 is going to play a critical role going forward wth regards to the overal blockiness of the pattern late in the forecast period.

 

Going forward it seems like the greatest potential is for a major low pressure system to impact the southeastern states with snow potential on the NW side and the higher terrain of the southern Apps.

[pazzo83]

The blocking over SE Canada mirrors what we saw last week. The pattern is anything but conductive for east coast warmth.

 

Umm, we aren't going to get a -5 to -6 AO.

[IsentropicLift]

Umm, we aren't going to get a -5 to -6 AO.

You can wishcast for warmth all you want. The ULL in SE Canada refuses to leave, even on the Euro which was the more progressive between the GFS and the EC. Both models however have ridging over Greenland.

 

[pazzo83]

You can wishcast for warmth all you want. The ULL in SE Canada refuses to leave, even on the Euro which was the more progressive between the GFS and the EC. Both models however have ridging over Greenland.

 

 

Where was I wishcasting for warmth?  I'm expecting 50s to perhaps low 60s (towards the 2nd week of April), which is pretty much avg to a bit below.  Expecting -5 to -6 sigma blocking twice in a 2-3 week period is wishcasting.

[IsentropicLift]

Where was I wishcasting for warmth?  I'm expecting 50s to perhaps low 60s (towards the 2nd week of April), which is pretty much avg to a bit below.  Expecting -5 to -6 sigma blocking twice in a 2-3 week period is wishcasting.

Expecting nothing, reporting what the models are showing. If they show something different in a day or two, so be it.

[Allsnow]

This weather blows. It looks a lot warmer outside then it is. The clouds killed the day here.

[Absolute Humidity]

Pretty soon we'll be getting sun burn wih temps in the lower 40's if this keeps up.

[MJO812]

The blocking on the GFS and Euro doesn't want to break down anytime soon.

 

Here is the Euro mean

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zecmwfenshourly850mbTempAnomalyNA144.gif

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zecmwfenshourly850mbTempAnomalyNA168.gif

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zecmwfenshourly850mbTempAnomalyNA192.gif

[earthlight]

On the 12z GFS the blocking was reinforced by the coastal that we get around day 7

 

It still doesn't mirror the intensity of what we were dealing with last week at all. That was a historic block with -4 to -5 SD anomalies extending from Greenland from the NAO, over the pole, into the EPO ridge north of Alaska. 

[Guest Patrick]

another day of 49* with temporarily moderate snow... thanks to this writeup, I understand how that's possible.  still, wicked cool to see.

Great writeup on this from Doug:

 

http://www.nymetroweather.com/2013/03/27/what-explains-the-convective-cumulus-clouds-we-had-yesterday/

[96blizz]

Great writeup on this from Doug:

http://www.nymetroweather.com/2013/03/27/what-explains-the-convective-cumulus-clouds-we-had-yesterday/

Thanks so much John! Just catching up on the forum today and, believe it or not it happened again today and it was 2 degrees warmer! Snowed at 49 degrees IMBY and that's the warmest I've ever see snow! Really cool and now I can explain it or, at the very least, scientifically prove I'm not nuts!!

[CooL]

The models backed off the blocking today which may put any kind of april snow threat to rest 

Hopefully in 2 weeks we are under a mega ridge

[earthlight]

The models backed off the blocking today which may put any kind of april snow threat to rest 

Hopefully in 2 weeks we are under a mega ridge

 

I think our first "warmup" will come as early as next weekend (April 4-7). We'll see.

[TWCCraig]

The models backed off the blocking today which may put any kind of april snow threat to rest 

Hopefully in 2 weeks we are under a mega ridge

 

I hope we're under a ridge this summer. That'll be the summer. 90's every day.

[ict1523]

I hope we have a 2009 repeat. 

[SnoSki14]

Why would anyone want to be under a huge ridge. We'll have plenty of heat in the months ahead, so ill gladly accept this coolish weather.

It's actually pretty seasonable to slightly below normal and this weekend and Monday will be above so what's the problem.

Why the rush for 90s, 80s, and even 70s.

[Dan76]

Why would anyone want to be under a huge ridge. We'll have plenty of heat in the months ahead, so ill gladly accept this coolish weather.

It's actually pretty seasonable to slightly below normal and this weekend and Monday will be above so what's the problem.

Why the rush for 90s, 80s, and even 70s.

Either they don't work outside or they have no electric bills?? oy-vey

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

no need to rush for 90s and upper 80s with humidity. but 70s and low 80s with low humidity is picture perfect. im certainly not looking forward to my first summer down here in the SE, so any way i can hold off the oppressive heat until then is money in the bank. 

[winterwarlock]

Did someone actually say why rush for 70's. Good lord come out of your molehouse sometime and enjoy nature

Ridge me please

[SnoSki14]

Did someone actually say why rush for 70's. Good lord come out of your molehouse sometime and enjoy nature

Ridge me please

70s are nice but they don't last too long, we quickly tend to rise into the 80s and 90s from late May to mid September. This spring the duration of 60s and 70s may be shortened significantly.

Def want to stay away from 80s and 90s though.

[blinkers88]

Did someone actually say why rush for 70's. Good lord come out of your molehouse sometime and enjoy nature

Ridge me please

trough me baby

[IsentropicLift]

A few positive trends on the 00z GFS for those of us hoping for one last shot of snow before we close up shop for the year. The day 7 miller B came back although not as impressive as prior runs and the day ten threat is there, just suppresed.