IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2013 Author Share Posted March 27, 2013 Interesting http://nws.weather.gov/haz_simp/ Disgusting, what is so hard to comprehend about a watch/warning or advisory? Nobody is going to take that wording any more seriously than they do the current system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2013 Author Share Posted March 27, 2013 Interesting, some of the 06z GEFS members focus more on a storm for early next week. Some bring significant snows to the interior, especially PA and up into New England. Here is one example that would affect our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 My last 70F high was October 20th. Would be impressive if I could make it to April 20th for a 6 month span of no 70s. High for January was 67F, and high for both Feb and March was 57F. Pretty nice, no 60s for 2 months now. Yeah despite Dec/Jan being above normal there was no strong max temps. I think we have a shot at 60s next week 4/5 or 4/6 before the next trough amplifies. It will be interesting to see if its suddenly summer come mid or late april. The current cold does remind me of the cold in april 2007 which was about 3 weeks in duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2013 Author Share Posted March 27, 2013 BTW what a great looking storm signal for next week on the 00z GGEM, stays suppressed but what a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Disgusting, what is so hard to comprehend about a watch/warning or advisory? Nobody is going to take that wording any more seriously than they do the current system. Soon we'll be at this point: "The National Weather Service urges caution and has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch, not Warning, we repeat, a Watch, not a Warning, for parts of New Jersey until 6:00pm. We repeat, a watch, not a warning, until 6:00pm, thats one hour after 5:00pm and one hour before 7:00pm." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Soon we'll be at this point: "The National Weather Service urges caution and has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch, not Warning, we repeat, a Watch, not a Warning, for parts of New Jersey until 6:00pm. We repeat, a watch, not a warning, until 6:00pm, thats one hour after 5:00pm and one hour before 7:00pm." The govt is always good at conjuring up a color code; http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/10/Hsas-chart_with_header.svg/383px-Hsas-chart_with_header.svg.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Soon we'll be at this point: "The National Weather Service urges caution and has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch, not Warning, we repeat, a Watch, not a Warning, for parts of New Jersey until 6:00pm. We repeat, a watch, not a warning, until 6:00pm, thats one hour after 5:00pm and one hour before 7:00pm." "The National Weather Service suggests that a Winter Storm Warning should be issued; repeat, should be issued. We think that this means that there could be in the approximate range of 4 to perhaps 35" of snow, somewhere, in many places, or no where in the forecast zone or thereabouts. We can neither confirm nor deny reports or forecasts of snow at this time. Please direct all relevant questions to Franklin, Jones, and Edwards, LLP, 1728 K St NW, Washington, DC 20006" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2013 Author Share Posted March 27, 2013 Soon we'll be at this point: "The National Weather Service urges caution and has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch, not Warning, we repeat, a Watch, not a Warning, for parts of New Jersey until 6:00pm. We repeat, a watch, not a warning, until 6:00pm, thats one hour after 5:00pm and one hour before 7:00pm." Quite sad but I ask this question? How many members of the general public even pay attention to or know what the NWS? I bet 90% of the general public gets the local forecast via radio or TV mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Euro keeps bringing the block back in. It's getting annoying now. We might not be consistently in the 60s for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Quite sad but I ask this question? How many members of the general public even pay attention to or know what the NWS? I bet 90% of the general public gets the local forecast via radio or TV mets. Sadly most go to weather.com if not radio or tv. People always ask me and when I say weather.gov or accuweather they don't know what I'm talking about. Many people get weather on their phone now too though I'm honestly not sure the source of those forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2013 Author Share Posted March 27, 2013 If the Euro/GFS/GGEM are correct, there will be a major low pressure system moving from the plains to the Mid-Atlantic Coast next week. That pattern is not conducive for a warm up. You would want the blocking to weaken so that the low cuts towards the lakes and we get into a SW flow. Of course myself and others are hoping for the opposite because this could bring the Miller A goods. Euro keeps bringing the block back in. It's getting annoying now. We might not be consistently in the 60s for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2013 Author Share Posted March 27, 2013 The 12z GFS now pops a weak miller B and runs it inside the benchmark next Monday-Tuesday. Cold enough for many inches of white plaster in the interior. Heavy cold rain for the city and Long Island. Surface freezing line runs from SWF to MMU. 850 freezing line about 25 miles east of that. Then everyone flips to wet snow as the 850 line pushes way east by hr 147. Snow maps show 2-4/4-8 for the far interior. This is important because it helps reinforce the blocking over SE Canada as a 50/50 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2013 Author Share Posted March 27, 2013 What a pattern on the long range GFS, ridging over Greenland by hr 174 with a massive block in place over SE Canada. Large PNA spike out west. Strong southern stream vort moving across Texas by hr 186 just begging for a piece of northern stream energy to drop down and phase with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 For those who enjoy milder springtime weather in the 60s then you'll probably get one day of that though days like today aren't bad either. Personally coolish days in the low 50s at the end of March feel pretty nice with some good winds. It doesn't look like Easter Sunday will be above normal anymore, the core of this brief mild surge will be Monday, April fools day, Easter Sunday could be near 50 at best pending cloud coverage/showers. Then things get pretty unfortunate for spring lovers, highs in the 40s, lows near or below freezing, a lot of cold rain, potential for a big storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 What a pattern on the long range GFS, ridging over Greenland by hr 174 with a massive block in place over SE Canada. Large PNA spike out west. Strong southern stream vort moving across Texas by hr 186 just begging for a piece of northern stream energy to drop down and phase with it. This just seems like one of those annoying patterns that lock in cold, raw and wet conditions for the coast. Hard for me to se how a lot of it is snow unless accompanied by a huge high pressure or pre-existing cold air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2013 Author Share Posted March 27, 2013 This just seems like one of those annoying patterns that lock in cold, raw and wet conditions for the coast. Hard for me to se how a lot of it is snow unless accompanied by a huge high pressure or pre-existing cold air mass. Nothing is stopping one of those northern stream vorts from dropping down and phasing. In fact the 06z GFS and 00z Euro/GGEM do just that. Great timing as well as the initial blocking over the northeast is way to strong for a northeast storm. Great pattern for the DC folks though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 The 12z GFS now pops a weak miller B and runs it inside the benchmark next Monday-Tuesday. Cold enough for many inches of white plaster in the interior. Heavy cold rain for the city and Long Island. Surface freezing line runs from SWF to MMU. 850 freezing line about 25 miles east of that. Then everyone flips to wet snow as the 850 line pushes way east by hr 147. Snow maps show 2-4/4-8 for the far interior. This is important because it helps reinforce the blocking over SE Canada as a 50/50 low. I wont be surprised if the city gets in on the snow, look how much cold air is around at 850s it looks like feb. Just need a better set up. Lol look at the monster storm at 216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Disgusting, what is so hard to comprehend about a watch/warning or advisory? Nobody is going to take that wording any more seriously than they do the current system. I actually think the word "advisory" should be something on the level of Special Weather Statement - but a bit higher. The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Advisory for a region. This is a 12-24 hour product that is a region-wide product. A watch could be issued just a few hours in advance of a storm and a warning could be issued within 30-60 minutes of a storm. Same thing with tornadoes. Tornado advisory, tornado watch, tornado warning. I really wonder why they discontinued snow advisory and just replaced it with winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2013 Author Share Posted March 27, 2013 The Euro doesn't have the coastal at day 7 that the GFS showed. I think that's actually good as it makes the pattern a little less suppressive after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 I actually think the word "advisory" should be something on the level of Special Weather Statement - but a bit higher. The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Advisory for a region. This is a 12-24 hour product that is a region-wide product. A watch could be issued just a few hours in advance of a storm and a warning could be issued within 30-60 minutes of a storm. Same thing with tornadoes. Tornado advisory, tornado watch, tornado warning. I really wonder why they discontinued snow advisory and just replaced it with winter weather. Its generally a good idea but I think would mostly confuse the public most of which don't understand the difference between a watch and a warning anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 I can't believe I'm saying this but it's actually snowing in Sussex county. WTF. Great writeup on this from Doug: http://www.nymetroweather.com/2013/03/27/what-explains-the-convective-cumulus-clouds-we-had-yesterday/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2013 Author Share Posted March 27, 2013 There is a convective look to the clouds today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2013 Author Share Posted March 27, 2013 The Euro lost the storm in the long range. Oh well. It's much flatter and weaker and supprsed than 00z. It breaks down the ridge out west faster which kicks everything east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2013 Author Share Posted March 27, 2013 At least the GGEM still has the day 7 storm and then a monster down south at hr 216. That gets kicked OTS but then the setup at day 10 is one of those setups you can only dream about. Day 7 storm Day 8-9 monster Day 10 potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2013 Author Share Posted March 27, 2013 If the Euro is correct, we might see highs in the upper 50's or close to 60 on April 5th before it becomes very cold again. I counted in total maybe 3 or 4 days total with around seasonal temps for highs with most lows in the 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2013 Author Share Posted March 27, 2013 Since this is only a banter thread why not right? 12z JMA for early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2013 Author Share Posted March 27, 2013 The same GEFS member that went nuts at 6z with the day ten storm went nuts again at 12z. Other than that, every other member is suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Navgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 If the Euro is correct, we might see highs in the upper 50's or close to 60 on April 5th before it becomes very cold again. I counted in total maybe 3 or 4 days total with around seasonal temps for highs with most lows in the 30's. Dude, April... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Dude, April... Euro shows no signs of warm weather at all except for many a day or two of 50s and 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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