Early Spring Banter Thread

[bluewave]

Someone else up here in Sussex Co. back me up.  It was 47 degrees and snowing for about 3 minutes.  Wild.  I didn't think that was meteoroligically possible???

 

It looks like evap cooling lowered the freezing level to just above the surface so the flakes didn't melt.

 

 

Date: 3 hour Eta valid 21Z TUE 26 MAR 13Station: KFWNLatitude:   41.20Longitude: -74.62-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------  0 1000    76                                                                 SFC  979   246   4.8   0.6  74  4.2   2.9 305   9 279.6 280.3 277.1 290.9  4.07  2  950   494   2.7  -3.6  63  6.3   0.2 309  14 280.0 280.5 276.0 288.6  3.09  3  900   928  -1.6  -4.9  78  3.4  -2.8 310  15 279.9 280.4 275.7 288.2  2.94  4  850  1379  -5.4  -9.1  75  3.7  -6.6 324  17 280.5 280.9 275.0 286.9  2.26

[dbc]

Pretty strong signal today on the 12z GEFS for a SECS in the 7-10 day time frame. Several members have massive hits, this one is my favorite

 

 Bullseye me beotch, lol!

[masomenos]

Was 51 with snow pellets before...interesting.

[BxEngine]

Was 51 with snow pellets before...interesting.

Yeah i had the same thing in the upper 40s

[Rtd208]

Thinking ahead to the summertime, I figured I would warn those of you who are new to the forum how things usually go here on one of the more exciting "SPC Moderate Risk Days"

2:00am: SPC outlook is out. Moderate risk, 45% hatch. Everybody freaking out.

2:02am: We go over models and data that show 50km of 0-6km bulk shear, perfect helicity, tons of instability.

2:05am: Snow88 says there is a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow.

2:10am: Doug posts a sounding and talks about something...I respond and we end up talking to each other for an hour.

3:00am: Everyone goes to sleep with thoughts of a derecho spinning in their head.

7:00am: "Derecho expected to slam northeast" is the headline on CNN.com

8:00am: I wake up. We're socked in with low clouds.

8:03am: Ace posts that this will be another bust.

9:00am: NAM now shows 12 inches of QPF over a 3 hour period at 4pm.

9:30am: New SPC outlook is out, expanding the moderate risk.

10:00am: Tornadojay, myself, doug, etc make quality posts about the threat including mesoanalysis and other information

10:30am: Snow88 says there is a chance of thunderstorms today.

11:00am: tmagan posts RGEM thunderstorm probability graphics that nobody can ever find.

11:30am: GFS is out and shows absolutely no QPF

12:00pm: It's still cloudy over all of NJ, NYC and LI. Parts of LI are in the 50's.

12:30pm: New SPC outlook is out. Moderate risk stays, but its pulled back to a Slight Risk east of NYC.

1:00pm: Clouds begin to break. Sun is coming out.

1:30pm: Forky posts that he can see the sun in Springfield.

1.40pm: Pazzo posts that it was 105 degrees in midtown during his 4th run of the day.

2:00pm: Sun is out. Yanksfan27 is posting SPC Mesoanalysis CAPE maps every 3 seconds.

2:03pm: It is now 108 degrees at Newark Airport.

2:15pm: First updrafts go up in Central PA. Immediately warned.

3:00pm: Now organizing into a line from Central PA to NY State. Approximately 50 warnings issued.

3:15pm: Severe thunderstorm watch box is issued that essentially covers the entire Northeast US.

3:30pm: Some guy from east bumble f*ck PA reports grape fruit sized hail

4:00pm: New SPC outlook is out, remains the same.

5:00pm: Mt Holly has already issued a blanket warning for the severe thunderstorm for all of New Jersey. The storm is still 100 miles away from the Delaware river.

6:30pm: Now 3000 j/kg of surface cape throughout the entire area. People freaking out, expecting a major derecho to slam through the coast.

7:00pm: Storms reach the Delaware river. But they have now outrun the best forcing. Anvil blowoff has reached my house and NYC, and its cloudy again. Instability begins to wane.

7:30pm: The outflow reaches my house, the storm is still 25 miles away. I gust to 30 mph.

8:00pm: Entire area now under a severe thunderstorm warning

8:15pm: Storm hits my area. Heavy rain and a clap of thunder. It was windier during the outflow boundary passage a half hour ago.

8:30pm: Storms hit NYC. Everybody is bored.

8:45pm: The storms blow up into right moving supercells over the waters south of Long Island. Upton issues a Special Marine Warning.

9:00pm: The new SPC outlook is out, keeping a tiny 6 pixel sized slight risk over Suffolk County.

10:00pm: The storms exit the coast. There are a few severe weather reports, mainly in Western NJ.

10:15pm: Doug posts a video of himself in Long Beach standing on the beach in the wind.

10:30pm: The stars are now out, and we start looking forward the See Text or Slight Risk a few days from now which will most likely produce 9x the severe weather that we got on the Moderate Risk day.

11:30pm: Somebody posts a thread about looking ahead to next winter, I roll my eyes and go to bed.

LOL! Bring on the severe weather, hopefully it will be an active year.

[Zelocita Weather]

Im officially ending the snow season, as I am taking the 12-13' snowfall YTD numbers and putting into the archive section of my signature

[WE GOT HIM]

Gfs still showing the energy at 18z

[SnoSki14]

Yea I've checked out with regards to anymore snow threats and fully ready for spring. Today actually felt decent, around 50 with light winds.

Could we hit 60F on Easter or perhaps Monday? Current forecast highs are 56 for Sunday and 58 for Monday and warm weather tends to over perform.

[Guest Patrick]

ditto...

Someone else up here in Sussex Co. back me up. It was 47 degrees and snowing for about 3 minutes. Wild. I didn't think that was meteoroligically possible???

[toople]

Earthlight, your post about the severe weather risk is funny.  Do you still have the post about timing when winter storm about to hit? I think you posted that last year but I can't find it.

[uncle W]

the five March's with snowfalls from the 14-22nd had cool Summers...will this year be on the cool side too?

year......ave.....July ave

1956.....72.8...72.9...

1958.....72.8...76.1...

1965.....72.5...74.3

1967.....74.0...75.3

2004.....73.3...74.5

norm.....74.8...76.8

 

 

[HailMan06]

Someone else up here in Sussex Co. back me up. It was 47 degrees and snowing for about 3 minutes. Wild. I didn't think that was meteoroligically possible???

Yep I was driving from Peapack to Bernardsville and encountered quite a bit of grouple around 5:30.

[Edge Weather]

Someone else up here in Sussex Co. back me up.  It was 47 degrees and snowing for about 3 minutes.  Wild.  I didn't think that was meteoroligically possible???

Someone else up here in Sussex Co. back me up.  It was 47 degrees and snowing for about 3 minutes.  Wild.  I didn't think that was meteoroligically possible???

I have seen it snow at 53 degrees here before under these conditions.

[Edge Weather]

Im officially ending the snow season, as I am taking the 12-13' snowfall YTD numbers and putting into the archive section of my signature

Im officially ending the snow season, as I am taking the 12-13' snowfall YTD numbers and putting into the archive section of my signature

That might be a bad move.

[CooL]

would be willing to bet we get another snow threat, the pattern isnt going away yet

[SnoSki14]

would be willing to bet we get another snow threat, the pattern isnt going away yet

I bet we get a snow event when everyone looks away.

[Heisy]

DGEX would be an ideal setup, it phases the tale end of the ULL with the wave out west. Would probably lead to a fairly large snowstorm.

 

[Storm At Sea]

I dont think anyone has mentioned what has been going on in the uk. Video looks like Newfoundland and not scotland or ireland

would be willing to bet we get another snow threat, the pattern isnt going away yet

[ace0927]

Thinking ahead to the summertime, I figured I would warn those of you who are new to the forum how things usually go here on one of the more exciting "SPC Moderate Risk Days"

2:00am: SPC outlook is out. Moderate risk, 45% hatch. Everybody freaking out.

2:02am: We go over models and data that show 50km of 0-6km bulk shear, perfect helicity, tons of instability.

2:05am: Snow88 says there is a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow.

2:10am: Doug posts a sounding and talks about something...I respond and we end up talking to each other for an hour.

3:00am: Everyone goes to sleep with thoughts of a derecho spinning in their head.

7:00am: "Derecho expected to slam northeast" is the headline on CNN.com

8:00am: I wake up. We're socked in with low clouds.

8:03am: Ace posts that this will be another bust.

9:00am: NAM now shows 12 inches of QPF over a 3 hour period at 4pm.

9:30am: New SPC outlook is out, expanding the moderate risk.

10:00am: Tornadojay, myself, doug, etc make quality posts about the threat including mesoanalysis and other information

10:30am: Snow88 says there is a chance of thunderstorms today.

11:00am: tmagan posts RGEM thunderstorm probability graphics that nobody can ever find.

11:30am: GFS is out and shows absolutely no QPF

12:00pm: It's still cloudy over all of NJ, NYC and LI. Parts of LI are in the 50's.

12:30pm: New SPC outlook is out. Moderate risk stays, but its pulled back to a Slight Risk east of NYC.

1:00pm: Clouds begin to break. Sun is coming out.

1:30pm: Forky posts that he can see the sun in Springfield.

1.40pm: Pazzo posts that it was 105 degrees in midtown during his 4th run of the day.

2:00pm: Sun is out. Yanksfan27 is posting SPC Mesoanalysis CAPE maps every 3 seconds.

2:03pm: It is now 108 degrees at Newark Airport.

2:15pm: First updrafts go up in Central PA. Immediately warned.

3:00pm: Now organizing into a line from Central PA to NY State. Approximately 50 warnings issued.

3:15pm: Severe thunderstorm watch box is issued that essentially covers the entire Northeast US.

3:30pm: Some guy from east bumble f*ck PA reports grape fruit sized hail

4:00pm: New SPC outlook is out, remains the same.

5:00pm: Mt Holly has already issued a blanket warning for the severe thunderstorm for all of New Jersey. The storm is still 100 miles away from the Delaware river.

6:30pm: Now 3000 j/kg of surface cape throughout the entire area. People freaking out, expecting a major derecho to slam through the coast.

7:00pm: Storms reach the Delaware river. But they have now outrun the best forcing. Anvil blowoff has reached my house and NYC, and its cloudy again. Instability begins to wane.

7:30pm: The outflow reaches my house, the storm is still 25 miles away. I gust to 30 mph.

8:00pm: Entire area now under a severe thunderstorm warning

8:15pm: Storm hits my area. Heavy rain and a clap of thunder. It was windier during the outflow boundary passage a half hour ago.

8:30pm: Storms hit NYC. Everybody is bored.

8:45pm: The storms blow up into right moving supercells over the waters south of Long Island. Upton issues a Special Marine Warning.

9:00pm: The new SPC outlook is out, keeping a tiny 6 pixel sized slight risk over Suffolk County.

10:00pm: The storms exit the coast. There are a few severe weather reports, mainly in Western NJ.

10:15pm: Doug posts a video of himself in Long Beach standing on the beach in the wind.

10:30pm: The stars are now out, and we start looking forward the See Text or Slight Risk a few days from now which will most likely produce 9x the severe weather that we got on the Moderate Risk day.

11:30pm: Somebody posts a thread about looking ahead to next winter, I roll my eyes and go to bed.

Bust!!!! Great stuff!!!!!!

[Guest Pamela]

Seasonal Snowfall 2012-13
As of 26 March 2013 / 10:00 PM ET

Bridgeport: 64.3"
NWS Upton: 51.8"
Islip: 46.9"
Newark: 29.5"
NYC Central Park: 26.1"
LaGuardia: 22.2"
Allentown: 21.4"
JFK: 17.6"
Philadelphia Intl: 8.3"

[Absolute Humidity]

I dont think anyone has mentioned what has been going on in the uk. Video looks like Newfoundland and not scotland or ireland

Yes the lambs are being silenced by the snow. I have family in Ireland and they say last few years have been like the little ice age.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Seasonal Snowfall 2012-13

As of 26 March 2013 / 11:00 PM ET

Bridgeport: 64.3"

NWS Upton: 51.8"

Islip: 46.9"

Newark: 29.5"

NYC Central Park: 26.1"

LaGuardia: 22.2"

Allentown: 21.4"

JFK: 17.6"

Philadelphia Intl: 8.3"

 

Good old JFK under reporting. It should be at least 20 there.

[Cfa]

Why is it always the low totals that get disputed lol. I believe there were a couple of events this winter where LGA's snow totals were being questioned as well.

I'm not disputing the accuracy of these claims (although I feel 20" is a bit too high), I just find it interesting, just like how the low/nighttime temps at LGA are often dismissed as incorrect.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Why is it always the low totals that get disputed lol. I believe there were a couple of events this winter where LGA's snow totals were being questioned as well.

I'm not disputing the accuracy of these claims (although I feel 20" is a bit too high), I just find it interesting, just like how the low/nighttime temps at LGA are often dismissed as incorrect.

 

Its been said time and time again on this board that JFK has been horrible with its reports the lat few years. I am about 10 miles east also essentially on the water and have 32 on the season. I am far enough west to have missed the big stuff in February. I took pretty accurate measurements this winter too. So how they have almost half what I have seems unrealistic. If you added up the totals at JFK the last 5 winters or so you would really be able to see the difference.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I dont think anyone has mentioned what has been going on in the uk. Video looks like Newfoundland and not scotland or ireland

 

 

yea huge blocking does the trick for europe as well. I found this graph quite interesting on bbc news. below avg march's are rare since 1989. the 5.5C avg is actually from 1981-2010 but if you factor in 1960-1980, the avg dips under 5C...that makes the period from 1989-2012 much above normal. also, 1961 featured record warmth and 1962 record cold...closely resembling 2012 and 2013.

 

[IsentropicLift]

The storm signal remained on the EC in the 8-10 day range. Trough digs all the way to the gulf coast with low pressure off the northern FL gulf coast at hr 216. Then Jacksonville by 222, Outer Banks by 234 and slowly sliding eastward at 240. Large PNA ridge out west a long with low pressure in the 50/50 position. Very nice setup. Precip maps show precip up to Cape May at day ten.

 

The 06z GFS is nearly identical to the 00z Euro. Organized low pressure over the FL Panhandle at hr 216, off the VA Capes at 228, Sub 996 low just inside the benchmark at 240. Nova Scotta by 252.

 

Point is, just a huge storm signal for a miller A in the 8-10 day range. Details to be determined.

[MJO812]

Interesting

http://nws.weather.gov/haz_simp/

[the moors in england]

Interesting

http://nws.weather.gov/haz_simp/

been discussed on the main board since last year.

 

I hate PR.

[Stormlover74]

Does anyone know when Upton is releasing their skywarn spotter training (or if they already have)? I saw that Mt Holly already did and they are offering an online class this year but technically I'm not in their forecasting area so I'd rather take the class from Upton

[Isotherm]

My last 70F high was October 20th. Would be impressive if I could make it to April 20th for a 6 month span of no 70s.

High for January was 67F, and high for both Feb and March was 57F. Pretty nice, no 60s for 2 months now.