Early Spring Banter Thread

[IsentropicLift]

no severe weather..why is it interesting?

Legit severe season around here doesn't start till the summer....excepet the severe season for Long Island never really begins

[Snow_Miser]

The GFS says that winter may not be over quite yet:

 

 

It brings two storm chances within the next ten days. A pretty impressive cold shot for early April moves in after a brief and weak warm up.

[Sn0waddict]

I wasn't here for the summer in this forum. How dead does it become? I suspect over the next 4 weeks it will become pretty quiet in this forum. I look forward to tracking the warmer temps however.

There will be a dying off period between the end of winter and the start of severe season. But once severe season gets going, people will be posting again. Hurricanes are also popular around here, even if they pose no threat for us.

[IsentropicLift]

The GFS says that winter may not be over quite yet:

 

Maybe you missed my post about an hour ago

[Snow_Miser]

Maybe you missed my post about an hour ago

 

It's definitely an interesting set up Mike. My hopes aren't high at all for any more snow, but the cold shot being depicted on the GFS would definitely bring unseasonably chilly temperatures to say the least.

[IsentropicLift]

It's definitely an interesting set up Mike. My hopes aren't high at all for any more snow, but the cold shot being depicted on the GFS would definitely bring unseasonably chilly temperatures to say the least.

I'm pretty much done with snow but the PNA spike out west can't be ignored. It would argue that the trough might be able to dig deeper as time goes on. Would love one of those really wrapped up rainy, windy noreasters.

[TWCCraig]

Legit severe season around here doesn't start till the summer....excepet the severe season for Long Island never really begins

 

It does. Trust me, last year was one of the best severe weather seasons on LI. Look how many tornado warnings were issued for LI this past summer. However, late spring/early summer sucks with those sea breezes ruining every chance of severe weather. By mid-summer, the ocean becomes plenty warm enough.

[IsentropicLift]

It does. Trust me, last year was one of the best severe weather seasons on LI. Look how many tornado warnings were issued for LI this past summer. However, late spring/early summer sucks with those sea breezes ruining every chance of severe weather. By mid-summer, the ocean becomes plenty warm enough.

I was just busting his chops.

 

Last year was a crazy severe season for a lot of folks.

 

Experienced the mid-atlantic derecheo first hand down in south Jersey in an RV. First and only time I can recall being legit scared about the weather. Place is surrouned by trees.

[dbc]

if there is precip on the GFS, and the 850 line is south of us,this is what you will get probably till May..get used to it lol

Lol:

[TWCCraig]

I was just busting his chops.

 

Last year was a crazy severe season for a lot of folks.

 

Experienced the mid-atlantic derecheo first hand down in south Jersey in an RV. First and only time I can recall being legit scared about the weather. Place is surrouned by trees.

 

Severe thunderstorms and high winds always get me excited. Wicked lighting storms are pretty scary here. There are tons of tall trees around my house, and they were planted in the 1930's. On 6/22/2012 we got a 65mph downburst, and huge branch of a 100ft tall Tulip tree almost ended up hitting our house, just missed us though. Also, the chairs on the deck of our pool got blown into the pool. Similar storm happened here on 7/25/2010.

[pazzo83]

I was just busting his chops.

 

Last year was a crazy severe season for a lot of folks.

 

Experienced the mid-atlantic derecheo first hand down in south Jersey in an RV. First and only time I can recall being legit scared about the weather. Place is surrouned by trees.

 

That thing was business.  People were without power for weeks down in VA afterwards.

[IsentropicLift]

That thing was business.  People were without power for weeks down in VA afterwards.

The next day we went home because of no power. My Granmother lives down in Pomona, NJ for those familiar with the area. They didn't get power back for ten days. It looked like a disaster zone. The only places open were a few businesses along Rt. 30 (White Horse Pike) which had underground cables. To make matters worse, it was followed up by an extreme heatwave with many people having no air condition.

 

Three things stand out in my memory about that night

 

1) The lightning was constant yet their was a lack of thunder, I'm guessing because a lot of it was cloud to cloud activity

 

2) The RV started shaking and literally didn't stop for two hours

 

3) Even after the wind stopped, the heavy rain and lightning persisted for many hours.

[jm1220]

I'm pretty much done with snow but the PNA spike out west can't be ignored. It would argue that the trough might be able to dig deeper as time goes on. Would love one of those really wrapped up rainy, windy noreasters.

Yuck. I swear, after Sandy, and 3/13/10 I don't want to ever see a raw, windy, rainy Nor'easter. Bring me sunny and 70s or bring me death.

[MJO812]

GGEM also has the threat

[kingwill42]

Yesterday was the straw that broke the camels back. Anybody still holding on to the threat of any snow (that sticks) is either just a real diehard or just a glutton for punishment. In my area North Central NJ this winter has been nothing but a big tease with close calls and near misses.. 

[earthlight]

If we can get that southern stream shortwave to eject faster, there is the potential for a huge storm system on the East Coast.

 

But I don't think that's very likely.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/f174.gif

[dbc]

Yesterday was the straw that broke the camels back. Anybody still holding on to the threat of any snow (that sticks) is either just a real diehard or just a glutton for punishment. In my area North Central NJ this winter has been nothing but a big tease with a close calls and near misses.. 

The pattern is the pattern. If it supports accumualting snow, nothing we do or say about it, how die-hard someone might be, nor how much punishment someone may want will change that.

[MJO812]

Euro says what spring lol

[WE GOT HIM]

GGEM also has the threat

This could be interesting, lots of energy running around. Lets see if the gfs can hold it for a few runs.

[MJO812]

Really nice setup on the euro

[IsentropicLift]

The threat is also on the Euro. Huge ULL persisting over SE Canda, look familiar?

[StatenWx]

My prediction for the "threat" next week.

NAM shows a huge hit everyone is excited, lots of arguing about how the EURO is the only model that matters. The day before people are saying it is going to be HUGE. The day of people will be saying bust before the precip falls. We get some mangled snowflakes that turn over to rain. Mass weenie suicide thereafter.

[earthlight]

we're going to need an amped up system to get accumulating snow here even in the pattern advertised by the Euro. Ligjht to moderate precipitation won't cut it.

[CooL]

guess that's how get snow in early april. Strong -EPO, strong -NAO and a +PNA. If the northern stream phases with the southern vort that is a perfect setup especially with 50/50 in a great spot.

 

Really getting tired of winter though

[TWCCraig]

Light Rain falling here

[bluewave]

we're going to need an amped up system to get accumulating snow here even in the pattern advertised by the Euro. Ligjht to moderate precipitation won't cut it.

 

I would like to see those two pieces energy come out more phased day 9-10 instead of strung out like the Euro is showing.

[ag3]

we're going to need an amped up system to get accumulating snow here even in the pattern advertised by the Euro. Ligjht to moderate precipitation won't cut it.

 

 

That southern vort at hour 132 needs to eject faster and fully phase with tail end vort of the ULL.

Or the southern vort can wait until the ULL moves into the 50/50 position and then phase with another piece of northern vort days 7-9. Euro was close to doing just that on day 8.

 

Both solutions would work. Both are pipe dreams but the entire 12z suite now shows this southern vort at around hours 132 and they also all show the huge ULL in Canada and it's something to keep an eye out on over the next 3-4 days.

[IsentropicLift]

Pretty strong signal today on the 12z GEFS for a SECS in the 7-10 day time frame. Several members have massive hits, this one is my favorite

 

[96blizz]

I can't believe I'm saying this but it's actually snowing in Sussex county.  WTF.

[96blizz]

Someone else up here in Sussex Co. back me up.  It was 47 degrees and snowing for about 3 minutes.  Wild.  I didn't think that was meteoroligically possible???