IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2013 Author Share Posted March 26, 2013 no severe weather..why is it interesting? Legit severe season around here doesn't start till the summer....excepet the severe season for Long Island never really begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 The GFS says that winter may not be over quite yet: It brings two storm chances within the next ten days. A pretty impressive cold shot for early April moves in after a brief and weak warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 I wasn't here for the summer in this forum. How dead does it become? I suspect over the next 4 weeks it will become pretty quiet in this forum. I look forward to tracking the warmer temps however. There will be a dying off period between the end of winter and the start of severe season. But once severe season gets going, people will be posting again. Hurricanes are also popular around here, even if they pose no threat for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2013 Author Share Posted March 26, 2013 The GFS says that winter may not be over quite yet: Maybe you missed my post about an hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 Maybe you missed my post about an hour ago It's definitely an interesting set up Mike. My hopes aren't high at all for any more snow, but the cold shot being depicted on the GFS would definitely bring unseasonably chilly temperatures to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2013 Author Share Posted March 26, 2013 It's definitely an interesting set up Mike. My hopes aren't high at all for any more snow, but the cold shot being depicted on the GFS would definitely bring unseasonably chilly temperatures to say the least. I'm pretty much done with snow but the PNA spike out west can't be ignored. It would argue that the trough might be able to dig deeper as time goes on. Would love one of those really wrapped up rainy, windy noreasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 Legit severe season around here doesn't start till the summer....excepet the severe season for Long Island never really begins It does. Trust me, last year was one of the best severe weather seasons on LI. Look how many tornado warnings were issued for LI this past summer. However, late spring/early summer sucks with those sea breezes ruining every chance of severe weather. By mid-summer, the ocean becomes plenty warm enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2013 Author Share Posted March 26, 2013 It does. Trust me, last year was one of the best severe weather seasons on LI. Look how many tornado warnings were issued for LI this past summer. However, late spring/early summer sucks with those sea breezes ruining every chance of severe weather. By mid-summer, the ocean becomes plenty warm enough. I was just busting his chops. Last year was a crazy severe season for a lot of folks. Experienced the mid-atlantic derecheo first hand down in south Jersey in an RV. First and only time I can recall being legit scared about the weather. Place is surrouned by trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 if there is precip on the GFS, and the 850 line is south of us,this is what you will get probably till May..get used to it lol Lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 I was just busting his chops. Last year was a crazy severe season for a lot of folks. Experienced the mid-atlantic derecheo first hand down in south Jersey in an RV. First and only time I can recall being legit scared about the weather. Place is surrouned by trees. Severe thunderstorms and high winds always get me excited. Wicked lighting storms are pretty scary here. There are tons of tall trees around my house, and they were planted in the 1930's. On 6/22/2012 we got a 65mph downburst, and huge branch of a 100ft tall Tulip tree almost ended up hitting our house, just missed us though. Also, the chairs on the deck of our pool got blown into the pool. Similar storm happened here on 7/25/2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 I was just busting his chops. Last year was a crazy severe season for a lot of folks. Experienced the mid-atlantic derecheo first hand down in south Jersey in an RV. First and only time I can recall being legit scared about the weather. Place is surrouned by trees. That thing was business. People were without power for weeks down in VA afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2013 Author Share Posted March 26, 2013 That thing was business. People were without power for weeks down in VA afterwards. The next day we went home because of no power. My Granmother lives down in Pomona, NJ for those familiar with the area. They didn't get power back for ten days. It looked like a disaster zone. The only places open were a few businesses along Rt. 30 (White Horse Pike) which had underground cables. To make matters worse, it was followed up by an extreme heatwave with many people having no air condition. Three things stand out in my memory about that night 1) The lightning was constant yet their was a lack of thunder, I'm guessing because a lot of it was cloud to cloud activity 2) The RV started shaking and literally didn't stop for two hours 3) Even after the wind stopped, the heavy rain and lightning persisted for many hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 I'm pretty much done with snow but the PNA spike out west can't be ignored. It would argue that the trough might be able to dig deeper as time goes on. Would love one of those really wrapped up rainy, windy noreasters. Yuck. I swear, after Sandy, and 3/13/10 I don't want to ever see a raw, windy, rainy Nor'easter. Bring me sunny and 70s or bring me death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 GGEM also has the threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 Yesterday was the straw that broke the camels back. Anybody still holding on to the threat of any snow (that sticks) is either just a real diehard or just a glutton for punishment. In my area North Central NJ this winter has been nothing but a big tease with close calls and near misses.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 If we can get that southern stream shortwave to eject faster, there is the potential for a huge storm system on the East Coast. But I don't think that's very likely. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/f174.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 Yesterday was the straw that broke the camels back. Anybody still holding on to the threat of any snow (that sticks) is either just a real diehard or just a glutton for punishment. In my area North Central NJ this winter has been nothing but a big tease with a close calls and near misses.. The pattern is the pattern. If it supports accumualting snow, nothing we do or say about it, how die-hard someone might be, nor how much punishment someone may want will change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 Euro says what spring lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 GGEM also has the threatThis could be interesting, lots of energy running around. Lets see if the gfs can hold it for a few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 Really nice setup on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2013 Author Share Posted March 26, 2013 The threat is also on the Euro. Huge ULL persisting over SE Canda, look familiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 My prediction for the "threat" next week. NAM shows a huge hit everyone is excited, lots of arguing about how the EURO is the only model that matters. The day before people are saying it is going to be HUGE. The day of people will be saying bust before the precip falls. We get some mangled snowflakes that turn over to rain. Mass weenie suicide thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 we're going to need an amped up system to get accumulating snow here even in the pattern advertised by the Euro. Ligjht to moderate precipitation won't cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 guess that's how get snow in early april. Strong -EPO, strong -NAO and a +PNA. If the northern stream phases with the southern vort that is a perfect setup especially with 50/50 in a great spot. Really getting tired of winter though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 Light Rain falling here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 we're going to need an amped up system to get accumulating snow here even in the pattern advertised by the Euro. Ligjht to moderate precipitation won't cut it. I would like to see those two pieces energy come out more phased day 9-10 instead of strung out like the Euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 we're going to need an amped up system to get accumulating snow here even in the pattern advertised by the Euro. Ligjht to moderate precipitation won't cut it. That southern vort at hour 132 needs to eject faster and fully phase with tail end vort of the ULL. Or the southern vort can wait until the ULL moves into the 50/50 position and then phase with another piece of northern vort days 7-9. Euro was close to doing just that on day 8. Both solutions would work. Both are pipe dreams but the entire 12z suite now shows this southern vort at around hours 132 and they also all show the huge ULL in Canada and it's something to keep an eye out on over the next 3-4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2013 Author Share Posted March 26, 2013 Pretty strong signal today on the 12z GEFS for a SECS in the 7-10 day time frame. Several members have massive hits, this one is my favorite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 I can't believe I'm saying this but it's actually snowing in Sussex county. WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 Someone else up here in Sussex Co. back me up. It was 47 degrees and snowing for about 3 minutes. Wild. I didn't think that was meteoroligically possible??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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