Early Spring Banter Thread

[earthlight]

But you/the board allows people to post crap from the uneducated pro snow/snow goggle side? Just not fair....

 

I don't understand this. The amount of posts I delete per day in this forum that are crap is astronomical. 

[Guest Patrick]

just to remind everyone... there is a great "off topic" section of this board. or if you have a LOT of extra time on your hands, there are plenty of organizations that can use help with donations and recovery efforts after the extreme weather we all love so much moves through.just sayin'

I don't understand this. The amount of posts I delete per day in this forum that are crap is astronomical.

[earthlight]

just to remind everyone... there is a great "off topic" section of this board. or if you have a LOT of extra time on your hands, there are plenty of organizations that can use help with donations and recovery efforts after the extreme weather we all love so much moves through.just sayin'

 

Also, if you are posting something in a discussion thread and its total crap, don't post it.

[CooL]

 

[earthlight]

Thinking ahead to the summertime, I figured I would warn those of you who are new to the forum how things usually go here on one of the more exciting "SPC Moderate Risk Days"

2:00am: SPC outlook is out. Moderate risk, 45% hatch. Everybody freaking out.

2:02am: We go over models and data that show 50km of 0-6km bulk shear, perfect helicity, tons of instability.

2:05am: Snow88 says there is a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow.

2:10am: Doug posts a sounding and talks about something...I respond and we end up talking to each other for an hour.

3:00am: Everyone goes to sleep with thoughts of a derecho spinning in their head.

7:00am: "Derecho expected to slam northeast" is the headline on CNN.com

8:00am: I wake up. We're socked in with low clouds.

8:03am: Ace posts that this will be another bust.

9:00am: NAM now shows 12 inches of QPF over a 3 hour period at 4pm.

9:30am: New SPC outlook is out, expanding the moderate risk.

10:00am: Tornadojay, myself, doug, etc make quality posts about the threat including mesoanalysis and other information

10:30am: Snow88 says there is a chance of thunderstorms today.

11:00am: tmagan posts RGEM thunderstorm probability graphics that nobody can ever find.

11:30am: GFS is out and shows absolutely no QPF

12:00pm: It's still cloudy over all of NJ, NYC and LI. Parts of LI are in the 50's.

12:30pm: New SPC outlook is out. Moderate risk stays, but its pulled back to a Slight Risk east of NYC.

1:00pm: Clouds begin to break. Sun is coming out.

1:30pm: Forky posts that he can see the sun in Springfield.

1.40pm: Pazzo posts that it was 105 degrees in midtown during his 4th run of the day.

2:00pm: Sun is out. Yanksfan27 is posting SPC Mesoanalysis CAPE maps every 3 seconds.

2:03pm: It is now 108 degrees at Newark Airport.

2:15pm: First updrafts go up in Central PA. Immediately warned.

3:00pm: Now organizing into a line from Central PA to NY State. Approximately 50 warnings issued.

3:15pm: Severe thunderstorm watch box is issued that essentially covers the entire Northeast US.

3:30pm: Some guy from east bumble f*ck PA reports grape fruit sized hail

4:00pm: New SPC outlook is out, remains the same.

5:00pm: Mt Holly has already issued a blanket warning for the severe thunderstorm for all of New Jersey. The storm is still 100 miles away from the Delaware river.

6:30pm: Now 3000 j/kg of surface cape throughout the entire area. People freaking out, expecting a major derecho to slam through the coast.

7:00pm: Storms reach the Delaware river. But they have now outrun the best forcing. Anvil blowoff has reached my house and NYC, and its cloudy again. Instability begins to wane.

7:30pm: The outflow reaches my house, the storm is still 25 miles away. I gust to 30 mph.

8:00pm: Entire area now under a severe thunderstorm warning

8:15pm: Storm hits my area. Heavy rain and a clap of thunder. It was windier during the outflow boundary passage a half hour ago.

8:30pm: Storms hit NYC. Everybody is bored.

8:45pm: The storms blow up into right moving supercells over the waters south of Long Island. Upton issues a Special Marine Warning.

9:00pm: The new SPC outlook is out, keeping a tiny 6 pixel sized slight risk over Suffolk County.

10:00pm: The storms exit the coast. There are a few severe weather reports, mainly in Western NJ.

10:15pm: Doug posts a video of himself in Long Beach standing on the beach in the wind.

10:30pm: The stars are now out, and we start looking forward the See Text or Slight Risk a few days from now which will most likely produce 9x the severe weather that we got on the Moderate Risk day.

11:30pm: Somebody posts a thread about looking ahead to next winter, I roll my eyes and go to bed.

[WE GOT HIM]

Thinking ahead to the summertime, I figured I would warn those of you who are new to the forum how things usually go here on one of the more exciting "SPC Moderate Risk Days"

2:00am: SPC outlook is out. Moderate risk, 45% hatch. Everybody freaking out.

2:02am: We go over models and data that show 50km of 0-6km bulk shear, perfect helicity, tons of instability.

2:05am: Snow88 says there is a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow.

2:10am: Doug posts a sounding and talks about something...I respond and we end up talking to each other for an hour.

3:00am: Everyone goes to sleep with thoughts of a derecho spinning in their head.

7:00am: "Derecho expected to slam northeast" is the headline on CNN.com

8:00am: I wake up. We're socked in with low clouds.

8:03am: Ace posts that this will be another bust.

9:00am: NAM now shows 12 inches of QPF over a 3 hour period at 4pm.

9:30am: New SPC outlook is out, expanding the moderate risk.

10:00am: Tornadojay, myself, doug, etc make quality posts about the threat including mesoanalysis and other information

10:30am: Snow88 says there is a chance of thunderstorms today.

11:00am: tmagan posts RGEM thunderstorm probability graphics that nobody can ever find.

11:30am: GFS is out and shows absolutely no QPF

12:00pm: It's still cloudy over all of NJ, NYC and LI. Parts of LI are in the 50's.

12:30pm: New SPC outlook is out. Moderate risk stays, but its pulled back to a Slight Risk east of NYC.

1:00pm: Clouds begin to break. Sun is coming out.

1:30pm: Forky posts that he can see the sun in Springfield.

1.40pm: Pazzo posts that it was 105 degrees in midtown during his 4th run of the day.

2:00pm: Sun is out. Yanksfan27 is posting SPC Mesoanalysis CAPE maps every 3 seconds.

2:03pm: It is now 108 degrees at Newark Airport.

2:15pm: First updrafts go up in Central PA. Immediately warned.

3:00pm: Now organizing into a line from Central PA to NY State. Approximately 50 warnings issued.

3:15pm: Severe thunderstorm watch box is issued that essentially covers the entire Northeast US.

3:30pm: Some guy from east bumble f*ck PA reports grape fruit sized hail

4:00pm: New SPC outlook is out, remains the same.

5:00pm: Mt Holly has already issued a blanket warning for the severe thunderstorm for all of New Jersey. The storm is still 100 miles away from the Delaware river.

6:30pm: Now 3000 j/kg of surface cape throughout the entire area. People freaking out, expecting a major derecho to slam through the coast.

7:00pm: Storms reach the Delaware river. But they have now outrun the best forcing. Anvil blowoff has reached my house and NYC, and its cloudy again. Instability begins to wane.

7:30pm: The outflow reaches my house, the storm is still 25 miles away. I gust to 30 mph.

8:00pm: Entire area now under a severe thunderstorm warning

8:15pm: Storm hits my area. Heavy rain and a clap of thunder. It was windier during the outflow boundary passage a half hour ago.

8:30pm: Storms hit NYC. Everybody is bored.

8:45pm: The storms blow up into right moving supercells over the waters south of Long Island. Upton issues a Special Marine Warning.

9:00pm: The new SPC outlook is out, keeping a tiny 6 pixel sized slight risk over Suffolk County.

10:00pm: The storms exit the coast. There are a few severe weather reports, mainly in Western NJ.

10:15pm: Doug posts a video of himself in Long Beach standing on the beach in the wind.

10:30pm: The stars are now out, and we start looking forward the See Text or Slight Risk a few days from now which will most likely produce 9x the severe weather that we got on the Moderate Risk day.

11:30pm: Somebody posts a thread about looking ahead to next winter, I roll my eyes and go to bed.

Lmaooooo - love it

[Guest Patrick]

Also, if you are posting something in a discussion thread and its total crap, don't post it.

yeah. And this.

[jm1220]

Also, if you are posting something in a discussion thread and its total crap, don't post it.

This. Honestly, this winter reached a new low around here for the constant trolling, bickering, and weenieism. It was particularly bad on Sat. afternoon when posters were just blindly rejecting models not showing snow, and starting trolling wars with mets saying otherwise. It made the threads unbearable to look through and I hung out in other subforums instead. You shouldn't post here if you don't have the capacity to have at least an ounce of maturity or if you're just here to be a weenie and not learn anything.

 

Thinking ahead to the summertime, I figured I would warn those of you who are new to the forum how things usually go here on one of the more exciting "SPC Moderate Risk Days"

2:00am: SPC outlook is out. Moderate risk, 45% hatch. Everybody freaking out.

2:02am: We go over models and data that show 50km of 0-6km bulk shear, perfect helicity, tons of instability.

2:05am: Snow88 says there is a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow.

2:10am: Doug posts a sounding and talks about something...I respond and we end up talking to each other for an hour.

3:00am: Everyone goes to sleep with thoughts of a derecho spinning in their head.

7:00am: "Derecho expected to slam northeast" is the headline on CNN.com

8:00am: I wake up. We're socked in with low clouds.

8:03am: Ace posts that this will be another bust.

9:00am: NAM now shows 12 inches of QPF over a 3 hour period at 4pm.

9:30am: New SPC outlook is out, expanding the moderate risk.

10:00am: Tornadojay, myself, doug, etc make quality posts about the threat including mesoanalysis and other information

10:30am: Snow88 says there is a chance of thunderstorms today.

11:00am: tmagan posts RGEM thunderstorm probability graphics that nobody can ever find.

11:30am: GFS is out and shows absolutely no QPF

12:00pm: It's still cloudy over all of NJ, NYC and LI. Parts of LI are in the 50's.

12:30pm: New SPC outlook is out. Moderate risk stays, but its pulled back to a Slight Risk east of NYC.

1:00pm: Clouds begin to break. Sun is coming out.

1:30pm: Forky posts that he can see the sun in Springfield.

1.40pm: Pazzo posts that it was 105 degrees in midtown during his 4th run of the day.

2:00pm: Sun is out. Yanksfan27 is posting SPC Mesoanalysis CAPE maps every 3 seconds.

2:03pm: It is now 108 degrees at Newark Airport.

2:15pm: First updrafts go up in Central PA. Immediately warned.

3:00pm: Now organizing into a line from Central PA to NY State. Approximately 50 warnings issued.

3:15pm: Severe thunderstorm watch box is issued that essentially covers the entire Northeast US.

3:30pm: Some guy from east bumble f*ck PA reports grape fruit sized hail

4:00pm: New SPC outlook is out, remains the same.

5:00pm: Mt Holly has already issued a blanket warning for the severe thunderstorm for all of New Jersey. The storm is still 100 miles away from the Delaware river.

6:30pm: Now 3000 j/kg of surface cape throughout the entire area. People freaking out, expecting a major derecho to slam through the coast.

7:00pm: Storms reach the Delaware river. But they have now outrun the best forcing. Anvil blowoff has reached my house and NYC, and its cloudy again. Instability begins to wane.

7:30pm: The outflow reaches my house, the storm is still 25 miles away. I gust to 30 mph.

8:00pm: Entire area now under a severe thunderstorm warning

8:15pm: Storm hits my area. Heavy rain and a clap of thunder. It was windier during the outflow boundary passage a half hour ago.

8:30pm: Storms hit NYC. Everybody is bored.

8:45pm: The storms blow up into right moving supercells over the waters south of Long Island. Upton issues a Special Marine Warning.

9:00pm: The new SPC outlook is out, keeping a tiny 6 pixel sized slight risk over Suffolk County.

10:00pm: The storms exit the coast. There are a few severe weather reports, mainly in Western NJ.

10:15pm: Doug posts a video of himself in Long Beach standing on the beach in the wind.

10:30pm: The stars are now out, and we start looking forward the See Text or Slight Risk a few days from now which will most likely produce 9x the severe weather that we got on the Moderate Risk day.

11:30pm: Somebody posts a thread about looking ahead to next winter, I roll my eyes and go to bed.

Classic!!

[TWCCraig]

I wasn't here for the summer in this forum. How dead does it become? I suspect over the next 4 weeks it will become pretty quiet in this forum. I look forward to tracking the warmer temps however.

[Guest Patrick]

look at the threads and page counts now. they won't change. uncle will post much appreciated stats everyday. aside from that, crickets.

I wasn't here for the summer in this forum. How dead does it become? I suspect over the next 4 weeks it will become pretty quiet in this forum. I look forward to tracking the warmer temps however.

[nycsnow]

look at the threads and page counts now. they won't change. uncle will post much appreciated stats everyday. aside from that, crickets.

Unless a hurricane again

[Stormlover74]

look at the threads and page counts now. they won't change. uncle will post much appreciated stats everyday. aside from that, crickets.

Well lets face it, most of us are snow weenies. I love to track wind/heavy rain/severe/tropical threats as well but generally not the same thing and severe threats are a dime a dozen and most don't end up coming to fruition, and even if they do they are rarely widespread.

 

i think whats happened around here is you have alot of different personalities and age ranges of 16 to 60. With that comes experience but not always maturity. You have the eternal optimistics and the grouches who don't want to hear every 10 minutes how we're getting a blizzard and it's led to alot of nasty altercations. I think a general rule would be if its not something you'd say to someone in person you shouldn't say it online either. If all on this board were all at the weather wall discussing model runs and potential outcomes we'd have healthy debates that would hopefully not escalate to petty disagreements and bickering but unfortunately it doesn't always translate online. People seem to be very defensive and take offense pretty easily and I'm sure we've all been guilty of it at one time or another.

[Sundog]

the five warmest April 1st days for NYC were April Fools jokes...

83 in 1917...6" of snow about a week later...

82 in 1978...31 degrees two days later with snow flurries...

75 in 2006...measurable snow a week later...

74 in 1918...3" of snow mid month...

74 in 1967...29 degrees a week later...wet snow twice near the end of the month...

II find this to be very interesting. It must be a hell of a coincidence.

[pazzo83]

Thinking ahead to the summertime, I figured I would warn those of you who are new to the forum how things usually go here on one of the more exciting "SPC Moderate Risk Days"

2:00am: SPC outlook is out. Moderate risk, 45% hatch. Everybody freaking out.

2:02am: We go over models and data that show 50km of 0-6km bulk shear, perfect helicity, tons of instability.

2:05am: Snow88 says there is a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow.

2:10am: Doug posts a sounding and talks about something...I respond and we end up talking to each other for an hour.

3:00am: Everyone goes to sleep with thoughts of a derecho spinning in their head.

7:00am: "Derecho expected to slam northeast" is the headline on CNN.com

8:00am: I wake up. We're socked in with low clouds.

8:03am: Ace posts that this will be another bust.

9:00am: NAM now shows 12 inches of QPF over a 3 hour period at 4pm.

9:30am: New SPC outlook is out, expanding the moderate risk.

10:00am: Tornadojay, myself, doug, etc make quality posts about the threat including mesoanalysis and other information

10:30am: Snow88 says there is a chance of thunderstorms today.

11:00am: tmagan posts RGEM thunderstorm probability graphics that nobody can ever find.

11:30am: GFS is out and shows absolutely no QPF

12:00pm: It's still cloudy over all of NJ, NYC and LI. Parts of LI are in the 50's.

12:30pm: New SPC outlook is out. Moderate risk stays, but its pulled back to a Slight Risk east of NYC.

1:00pm: Clouds begin to break. Sun is coming out.

1:30pm: Forky posts that he can see the sun in Springfield.

1.40pm: Pazzo posts that it was 105 degrees in midtown during his 4th run of the day.

2:00pm: Sun is out. Yanksfan27 is posting SPC Mesoanalysis CAPE maps every 3 seconds.

2:03pm: It is now 108 degrees at Newark Airport.

2:15pm: First updrafts go up in Central PA. Immediately warned.

3:00pm: Now organizing into a line from Central PA to NY State. Approximately 50 warnings issued.

3:15pm: Severe thunderstorm watch box is issued that essentially covers the entire Northeast US.

3:30pm: Some guy from east bumble f*ck PA reports grape fruit sized hail

4:00pm: New SPC outlook is out, remains the same.

5:00pm: Mt Holly has already issued a blanket warning for the severe thunderstorm for all of New Jersey. The storm is still 100 miles away from the Delaware river.

6:30pm: Now 3000 j/kg of surface cape throughout the entire area. People freaking out, expecting a major derecho to slam through the coast.

7:00pm: Storms reach the Delaware river. But they have now outrun the best forcing. Anvil blowoff has reached my house and NYC, and its cloudy again. Instability begins to wane.

7:30pm: The outflow reaches my house, the storm is still 25 miles away. I gust to 30 mph.

8:00pm: Entire area now under a severe thunderstorm warning

8:15pm: Storm hits my area. Heavy rain and a clap of thunder. It was windier during the outflow boundary passage a half hour ago.

8:30pm: Storms hit NYC. Everybody is bored.

8:45pm: The storms blow up into right moving supercells over the waters south of Long Island. Upton issues a Special Marine Warning.

9:00pm: The new SPC outlook is out, keeping a tiny 6 pixel sized slight risk over Suffolk County.

10:00pm: The storms exit the coast. There are a few severe weather reports, mainly in Western NJ.

10:15pm: Doug posts a video of himself in Long Beach standing on the beach in the wind.

10:30pm: The stars are now out, and we start looking forward the See Text or Slight Risk a few days from now which will most likely produce 9x the severe weather that we got on the Moderate Risk day.

11:30pm: Somebody posts a thread about looking ahead to next winter, I roll my eyes and go to bed.

 

Nailed it

[jm1220]

Well lets face it, most of us are snow weenies. I love to track wind/heavy rain/severe/tropical threats as well but generally not the same thing and severe threats are a dime a dozen and most don't end up coming to fruition, and even if they do they are rarely widespread.

 

i think whats happened around here is you have alot of different personalities and age ranges of 16 to 60. With that comes experience but not always maturity. You have the eternal optimistics and the grouches who don't want to hear every 10 minutes how we're getting a blizzard and it's led to alot of nasty altercations. I think a general rule would be if its not something you'd say to someone in person you shouldn't say it online either. If all on this board were all at the weather wall discussing model runs and potential outcomes we'd have healthy debates that would hopefully not escalate to petty disagreements and bickering but unfortunately it doesn't always translate online. People seem to be very defensive and take offense pretty easily and I'm sure we've all been guilty of it at one time or another.

I've never really cared much about the nastiness on here, but this winter it seems to have gotten worse. Maybe it was the frustrating nature of a lot of our storms, maybe it was being on edge constantly, who knows, but this winter it just got out of hand and forced the mods to constantly delete reams of posts. And it doesn't exist on the other subforums the way it does here. People need to learn how to use the ignore button, PM or report functions instead of continuing a trolling war or whinefest that others are forced to read. The fact that mets have to deal with getting piled on by weenies for providing objective discussion is also out of hand. John and Doug did a great job this winter but they shouldn't have to act as babysitters for people in some cases twice or more their age and who should know better. Next winter I'm totally on board with more suspensions and bannings. Act like a grownup or go somewhere else.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Thinking ahead to the summertime, I figured I would warn those of you who are new to the forum how things usually go here on one of the more exciting "SPC Moderate Risk Days"

2:00am: SPC outlook is out. Moderate risk, 45% hatch. Everybody freaking out.

2:02am: We go over models and data that show 50km of 0-6km bulk shear, perfect helicity, tons of instability.

2:05am: Snow88 says there is a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow.

2:10am: Doug posts a sounding and talks about something...I respond and we end up talking to each other for an hour.

3:00am: Everyone goes to sleep with thoughts of a derecho spinning in their head.

7:00am: "Derecho expected to slam northeast" is the headline on CNN.com

8:00am: I wake up. We're socked in with low clouds.

8:03am: Ace posts that this will be another bust.

9:00am: NAM now shows 12 inches of QPF over a 3 hour period at 4pm.

9:30am: New SPC outlook is out, expanding the moderate risk.

10:00am: Tornadojay, myself, doug, etc make quality posts about the threat including mesoanalysis and other information

10:30am: Snow88 says there is a chance of thunderstorms today.

11:00am: tmagan posts RGEM thunderstorm probability graphics that nobody can ever find.

11:30am: GFS is out and shows absolutely no QPF

12:00pm: It's still cloudy over all of NJ, NYC and LI. Parts of LI are in the 50's.

12:30pm: New SPC outlook is out. Moderate risk stays, but its pulled back to a Slight Risk east of NYC.

1:00pm: Clouds begin to break. Sun is coming out.

1:30pm: Forky posts that he can see the sun in Springfield.

1.40pm: Pazzo posts that it was 105 degrees in midtown during his 4th run of the day.

2:00pm: Sun is out. Yanksfan27 is posting SPC Mesoanalysis CAPE maps every 3 seconds.

2:03pm: It is now 108 degrees at Newark Airport.

2:15pm: First updrafts go up in Central PA. Immediately warned.

3:00pm: Now organizing into a line from Central PA to NY State. Approximately 50 warnings issued.

3:15pm: Severe thunderstorm watch box is issued that essentially covers the entire Northeast US.

3:30pm: Some guy from east bumble f*ck PA reports grape fruit sized hail

4:00pm: New SPC outlook is out, remains the same.

5:00pm: Mt Holly has already issued a blanket warning for the severe thunderstorm for all of New Jersey. The storm is still 100 miles away from the Delaware river.

6:30pm: Now 3000 j/kg of surface cape throughout the entire area. People freaking out, expecting a major derecho to slam through the coast.

7:00pm: Storms reach the Delaware river. But they have now outrun the best forcing. Anvil blowoff has reached my house and NYC, and its cloudy again. Instability begins to wane.

7:30pm: The outflow reaches my house, the storm is still 25 miles away. I gust to 30 mph.

8:00pm: Entire area now under a severe thunderstorm warning

8:15pm: Storm hits my area. Heavy rain and a clap of thunder. It was windier during the outflow boundary passage a half hour ago.

8:30pm: Storms hit NYC. Everybody is bored.

8:45pm: The storms blow up into right moving supercells over the waters south of Long Island. Upton issues a Special Marine Warning.

9:00pm: The new SPC outlook is out, keeping a tiny 6 pixel sized slight risk over Suffolk County.

10:00pm: The storms exit the coast. There are a few severe weather reports, mainly in Western NJ.

10:15pm: Doug posts a video of himself in Long Beach standing on the beach in the wind.

10:30pm: The stars are now out, and we start looking forward the See Text or Slight Risk a few days from now which will most likely produce 9x the severe weather that we got on the Moderate Risk day.

11:30pm: Somebody posts a thread about looking ahead to next winter, I roll my eyes and go to bed.

LOL

[earthlight]

I wasn't here for the summer in this forum. How dead does it become? I suspect over the next 4 weeks it will become pretty quiet in this forum. I look forward to tracking the warmer temps however.

I've found that the quality of discussion improves dramatically in the summer.

[IsentropicLift]

Thinking ahead to the summertime, I figured I would warn those of you who are new to the forum how things usually go here on one of the more exciting "SPC Moderate Risk Days"

2:00am: SPC outlook is out. Moderate risk, 45% hatch. Everybody freaking out.

2:02am: We go over models and data that show 50km of 0-6km bulk shear, perfect helicity, tons of instability.

2:05am: Snow88 says there is a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow.

2:10am: Doug posts a sounding and talks about something...I respond and we end up talking to each other for an hour.

3:00am: Everyone goes to sleep with thoughts of a derecho spinning in their head.

7:00am: "Derecho expected to slam northeast" is the headline on CNN.com

8:00am: I wake up. We're socked in with low clouds.

8:03am: Ace posts that this will be another bust.

9:00am: NAM now shows 12 inches of QPF over a 3 hour period at 4pm.

9:30am: New SPC outlook is out, expanding the moderate risk.

10:00am: Tornadojay, myself, doug, etc make quality posts about the threat including mesoanalysis and other information

10:30am: Snow88 says there is a chance of thunderstorms today.

11:00am: tmagan posts RGEM thunderstorm probability graphics that nobody can ever find.

11:30am: GFS is out and shows absolutely no QPF

12:00pm: It's still cloudy over all of NJ, NYC and LI. Parts of LI are in the 50's.

12:30pm: New SPC outlook is out. Moderate risk stays, but its pulled back to a Slight Risk east of NYC.

1:00pm: Clouds begin to break. Sun is coming out.

1:30pm: Forky posts that he can see the sun in Springfield.

1.40pm: Pazzo posts that it was 105 degrees in midtown during his 4th run of the day.

2:00pm: Sun is out. Yanksfan27 is posting SPC Mesoanalysis CAPE maps every 3 seconds.

2:03pm: It is now 108 degrees at Newark Airport.

2:15pm: First updrafts go up in Central PA. Immediately warned.

3:00pm: Now organizing into a line from Central PA to NY State. Approximately 50 warnings issued.

3:15pm: Severe thunderstorm watch box is issued that essentially covers the entire Northeast US.

3:30pm: Some guy from east bumble f*ck PA reports grape fruit sized hail

4:00pm: New SPC outlook is out, remains the same.

5:00pm: Mt Holly has already issued a blanket warning for the severe thunderstorm for all of New Jersey. The storm is still 100 miles away from the Delaware river.

6:30pm: Now 3000 j/kg of surface cape throughout the entire area. People freaking out, expecting a major derecho to slam through the coast.

7:00pm: Storms reach the Delaware river. But they have now outrun the best forcing. Anvil blowoff has reached my house and NYC, and its cloudy again. Instability begins to wane.

7:30pm: The outflow reaches my house, the storm is still 25 miles away. I gust to 30 mph.

8:00pm: Entire area now under a severe thunderstorm warning

8:15pm: Storm hits my area. Heavy rain and a clap of thunder. It was windier during the outflow boundary passage a half hour ago.

8:30pm: Storms hit NYC. Everybody is bored.

8:45pm: The storms blow up into right moving supercells over the waters south of Long Island. Upton issues a Special Marine Warning.

9:00pm: The new SPC outlook is out, keeping a tiny 6 pixel sized slight risk over Suffolk County.

10:00pm: The storms exit the coast. There are a few severe weather reports, mainly in Western NJ.

10:15pm: Doug posts a video of himself in Long Beach standing on the beach in the wind.

10:30pm: The stars are now out, and we start looking forward the See Text or Slight Risk a few days from now which will most likely produce 9x the severe weather that we got on the Moderate Risk day.

11:30pm: Somebody posts a thread about looking ahead to next winter, I roll my eyes and go to bed.

Nailed it

 

The one thing I can say is that the percentage of tornado warnings that have actually verified seems to be on the rise. I'm not sure if that's because the NWS is issuing less warnings or because we've gotten more tornadic activity lately.

[NorthShoreWx]

I've found that the quality of discussion improves dramatically in the summer.

 

It doesn't take much.

[WintersGrasp]

Earthlight that is HILARIOUS LOL ! And pretty damn accurate nice job !!!!

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z GFS has an interesting setup around the first couple days of April with a low pressure system tracking from the plains to off the Mid-Atlantic coast at the same time a PNA spike occurs out west.

[MJO812]

Due to the blocking breaking down, I can see a storm along the coast next week .

[KEITH L.I]

The 12z GFS has an interesting setup around the first couple days of April with a low pressure system tracking from the plains to off the Mid-Atlantic coast at the same time a PNA spike occurs out west.

no severe weather..why is it interesting?

[Weather Fanatic 97]

Someone should make a thread for the potential april snowstorm

[kingwill42]

Still waiting for the 1-3 inches of snow NWS had for me yesterday.. 

[TWCCraig]

Warm today. 52.2F with nice cumulus clouds and feels like 70! 

[dbc]

no severe weather..why is it interesting?

Got news for you, you are going to be pretty bored because there will be no significant severe weather outbreaks in this area for quite some time. Considering the pattern, it is more likely we still see snow rather than thunderstorms for the forseeable future. Get used to it.

[Stormlover74]

Someone should make a thread for the potential april snowstorm

please dear god no

[dbc]

please dear god no

Agree. If every single model agrees at 12 hours out of an April snow event then it is maybe worth posting a thread, until then please no, lol.

[KEITH L.I]

Agree. If every single model agrees at 12 hours out of an April snow event then it is maybe worth posting a thread, until then please no, lol.

if there is precip on the GFS, and the 850 line is south of us,this is what you will get probably till May..get used to it lol