Allsnow Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 not to be debbie downer, but there is a correlation to STL snow and the lack thereof of snow in NYC from the same system Now you are trying to hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 yeah. exactly. 7 inches in the middle of the street at 2pm. spectacular event. I got 5 inches from that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 not to be debbie downer, but there is a correlation to STL snow and the lack thereof of snow in NYC from the same system I think it was chicago but we've seen that debunked several times in the past decade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Two things: 1. The NAM is what it is. 2. Forky is who he is. I remember 10 years or so I was as young as some of our youngest posters now. I was trying to post pictures of the snow with a bad digital camera. The quality was meh, but I was trying. Forky was actually quite helpful and encouraging to me then. Other posters (mainly Tony Mondaro) were not nearly as kind. Forky is at the end of the day a good guy. He makes his "comments", but there really isn't much, if any, malice behind it. He says what he thinks. He has made a number of pro-snow comments when he felt the evidence was there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 If this is the last storm, bring on the 60s and 70s. Time for baseball and handball =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 so DT updated his forecast showing 3-6 for the southern half of nj and now the nam comes out with next to nothing..he should have stuck with his original forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 If this is the last storm, bring on the 60s and 70s. Time for baseball and handball =) The latest gfs didn't look too promising for any widespread or prolonged warmth heading into April. I'm sure we might get the prefrontal warmth but it could be accompanied by clouds and rain. It still looks very troughy and the NAO will stay negative, April snow cannot be ruled out either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 The latest gfs didn't look too promising for any widespread or prolonged warmth heading into April. I'm sure we might get the prefrontal warmth but it could be accompanied by clouds and rain. It still looks very troughy and the NAO will stay negative, April snow cannot be ruled out either. It's still showing a low down south at 252. Blocking patterns take long to break down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 It's still showing a low down south at 252. Blocking patterns take long to break down. I'm really interested in that 4/3-4/4 system. There's an unusual amount of cold air available for early April with a strong arctic high moving down through the Midwest due to the continued -NAO. That could set up our first significant April snowfall since 2006. I have fond memories of 4/7/03 and 4/1/97. Could that repeat? 12z ECM also looks chilly later in the week as the ULL passes over the area with -8C 850s. I'm seeing forecasts for temperatures near 50F, and I can't help but think that's going to be too warm with cloud cover and 850s in the -7/-8C range. I would expect a couple of days with highs in the low 40s, with Thursday probably being the coldest and the best chance for flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 52+ tomorrow in SW CT down to Westchester if the RAP is correct...Zucker will be whipping out the sun tan lotion. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RUCNE_6z/f12.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 ..a snowstorm in march or april just doesn't feel the same as a snowstorm in dec.,jan.,or feb.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2013 Author Share Posted March 25, 2013 The 12z GFS today has 850 temps soaring into the +12-+16 range by the end of next week. If correct that would probably be our first legit chance at widespread 70's this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 The 12z GFS today has 850 temps soaring into the +12-+16 range by the end of next week. If correct that would probably be our first legit chance at widespread 70's this year. Yep. 16-day plots show 2mT's even on LI getting into the 70's. Looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2013 Author Share Posted March 25, 2013 Yep. 16-day plots show 2mT's even on LI getting into the 70's. Looking forward to it. Yeah I agree. I was all for one last shot of snow today. We still have small piles on the ground from a few weeks ago, do they count? Seriously ready for some 70's and Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Yep. 16-day plots show 2mT's even on LI getting into the 70's. Looking forward to it. Will probably back off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Thank you! There is a definitive double standard, specifically in THIS subforum. If you spend enough time in the S NE thread, which I do, you will see how a thread should be run. This is NOT to say there arent quality posters here, Earthlight, JM, Bluewave, Don, Sacrus and a few mets (and others) really know their stuff...but by and large is a group of HS and early college kids running wild. The fact that this cant be an open forum for all to speak their minds is a joke....but whatever. We gotta start piss testing around here. Youre outta your mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 The fact that this cant be an open forum for all to speak their minds is a joke....but whatever. I don't think you understand what would go on in this forum if I let it become an open forum for everyone to speak their mind. I'll leave it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Hopefully it's warm next Monday. Going to Citifield for opening day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 real warm up on GFS for next week..looks like real spring weather comes in as the baseball season opens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 real warm up on GFS for next week..looks like real spring weather comes in as the baseball season opens ..and lets not forget..flounder season opens next week too! (for us long islanders) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 One thing I am becoming concerned about is the verification of the SREF .. which used to be one of the most useful short term modeling tools. The addition of the ARW and NMM members has, at least in our area of the country, made them extremely prone to wild swings and terrible busts in the short term. The ARW members literally produce blizzards on every single potential winter storm setup...that always end up way over-amplified with too much precipitation. Although the ETA and RSM members were ancient and outdated, they seem to have provided a bit of stability. I'm not sure exactly what the verification scores are for the model of late...but they have to me undoubtedly become almost as useful as the NAM ... which is not very useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Looks like there will be one more good cold shot before we truly see springlike weather, although I find models try to break the patterns down to quickly and there will still be some blocking in place even in the first week of April. Would not be surprised if the warmth was pushed back until mid April at least. I strongly fear it will be a quick cool to hot transition without a gradual spring trend heading forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 One thing I am becoming concerned about is the verification of the SREF .. which used to be one of the most useful short term modeling tools. The addition of the ARW and NMM members has, at least in our area of the country, made them extremely prone to wild swings and terrible busts in the short term. The ARW members literally produce blizzards on every single potential winter storm setup...that always end up way over-amplified with too much precipitation. Although the ETA and RSM members were ancient and outdated, they seem to have provided a bit of stability. I'm not sure exactly what the verification scores are for the model of late...but they have to me undoubtedly become almost as useful as the NAM ... which is not very useful. I know every time that it is said by people, they get reprimanded and all but.....for the most part..as this winter showed...do the models have any binoculars at all to look into the future ? (Aside from the euro model).....it seems like even 24 hours or less from an event, it has become common and almost EVERY time for the models to not be in disagreement....but COMPLETE and utter array over the solution. At times the difference between rain and 2 feet of snow....right up until its about to fall! Does something not have to be done about this ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 No more model watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 I don't think you understand what would go on in this forum if I let it become an open forum for everyone to speak their mind. I'll leave it at that. But you/the board allows people to post crap from the uneducated pro snow/snow goggle side? Just not fair.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 Hopefully it's warm next Monday. Going to Citifield for opening day I hope it pours snow :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 I hope it pours snow :-) I wish it does but highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 But you/the board allows people to pst crap from the uneducated pro snow/snow goggle side? Just not fair.... Yeah but if everyone posted the same views...the board would be boring to read...it is the variety of opinions that makes it interesting. And just because a person is pro-snow does not make him uneducated....most of these events this year were very, very borderline cases which could go either way...and did...as evinced by the 64" at nearby Bridgeport vs the 17" at JFK. Most everyone else fell somewhere in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 the five warmest April 1st days for NYC were April Fools jokes... 83 in 1917...6" of snow about a week later...82 in 1978...31 degrees two days later with snow flurries...75 in 2006...measurable snow a week later...74 in 1918...3" of snow mid month...74 in 1967...29 degrees a week later...wet snow twice near the end of the month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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