NEG NAO Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Big potential for a storm next weekend. how many times have we said that this winter - how many times did it verify ? Unless it was rain........... and I know you are not talkin rain Also count how many warning criteria snowstorms NYC has had after March 22 - since 1969 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/sixplussnow/nycsixplussnow.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 how many times have we said that this winter - how many times did it verify ? Unless it was rain........... and I know you are not talkin rain Also count how many warning criteria snowstorms NYC has had after March 22 - since 1969 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/sixplussnow/nycsixplussnow.html In the last 31 years we had just 3 storms out here of 6 inches or more in April...4/6/82 (around 10 - 12 inches)...4/10/96 (around 12 inches)...and 4/7/2003 (around 6 inches)...so it is about a 1 in 10 proposition during April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 In the last 31 years we had just 3 storms out here of 6 inches or more in April...4/6/82 (around 10 - 12 inches)...4/10/96 (around 12 inches)...and 4/7/2003 (around 6 inches)...so it is about a 1 in 10 proposition during April.one thing about this particular year - chances this season are much higher for a warning criteria snowfall the rest of the way through early April because of the way the pattern is set up with all the blocking and below normal temps forecasted along with an active STJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Look at the AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Loving this cool and gloomy weather. Far better than last March. Currently 39 after a high of 43. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Get use to it. This is typical march in NYC. You have been spoiled Aren't we running a bit below average though? We should be seeing 50's, not temps typical for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Aren't we running a bit below average though? We should be seeing 50's, not temps typical for January. Islip's normal high for yesterday was 47 F...Newark's was 50 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Get use to it. This is typical march in NYC. You have been spoiled We were nearly 10 degrees below average for the past few days. Not typical at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Islip's normal high for yesterday was 47 F...Newark's was 50 F. As of today, the average highs at LGA & NYC are both 50°F, EWR's is 51°F, JFK's is 49°F. Today's forecast isn't typical March weather, it screams mid January. NYC: 37/27 LGA: 39/30 JFK: 40/28 EWR: 42/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Aren't we running a bit below average though? We should be seeing 50's, not temps typical for January. Oh, hush. Central Park is +0.1 for the month through yesterday. Seems pretty normal to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 This is closer to average than being atypical. Preliminary Monthly departures as of today: KNYC: +0.1 KLGA: +0.5 KJFK: +0.4 KISP: +1.0 KBDR: +2.0 KEWR: +0.5 I don't think this month will be very below normal, probably end up slightly below normal (0.0≥X≥-1.0) sad to say that with such amazing blocking and a mid-winter like setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 This is closer to average than being atypical. Preliminary Monthly departures as of today: KNYC: +0.1 KLGA: +0.5 KJFK: +0.4 KISP: +1.0 KBDR: +2.0 KEWR: +0.5 I don't think this month will be very below normal, probably end up slightly below normal (0.0≥X≥-1.0) sad to say that with such amazing blocking and a mid-winter like setup. With temps 5- 10 degrees below normal at least for the next week we should add a pretty good negative monthly departure as time goes on as monthly normals are climbing each day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 This is closer to average than being atypical. Preliminary Monthly departures as of today: KNYC: +0.1 KLGA: +0.5 KJFK: +0.4 KISP: +1.0 KBDR: +2.0 KEWR: +0.5 I don't think this month will be very below normal, probably end up slightly below normal (0.0≥X≥-1.0) sad to say that with such amazing blocking and a mid-winter like setup. The thing is that the March's of the past have been so incredibly warm that even if we are right around normal for at least the first half of March, it feels shocking to us and many people I've spoken with. When you have a +8 or greater last March to near normal so far than that's pretty staggering. However with the departures starting today and going forward, we will most certainly get quite a bit below normal, especially as averages continue to go up. Today should've been a good negative day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The thing is that the March's of the past have been so incredibly warm that even if we are right around normal for at least the first half of March, it feels shocking to us and many people I've spoken with. When you have a +8 or greater last March to near normal so far than that's pretty staggering. However with the departures starting today and going forward, we will most certainly get quite a bit below normal, especially as averages continue to go up. Today should've been a good negative day. Today was 41/32 at NYC as compared to a normal of 50/32, so that's a -5F departure. Given that departure and the monthly of +0.1F, Central Park should be at -0.2F departure after today. Might slip a little colder if they clear out in the next couple of hours. The month should end at least -2F. I don't see any highs above the low 40s for the next week, at least, and normals are rising well into the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Strange to watch the half marathon run in central park with pretty snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 With 0.8" of snow yesterday, NWS Upton has now recorded 50.2" of snow for the 2012-13 winter season. This marks the 7th time in the last 13 years that Upton has crashed the 50 inch barrier. The other winters were 2000-01, 2002-03, 2003-04, 2004-05, 2009-10, and 2010-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Seasonal Snowfall 2012-13As of 17 March 2013 / 8:00 AM ETBridgeport: 61.3" NWS Upton: 50.2"Islip: 45.3" Newark: 27.4" NYC Central Park: 23.1"LaGuardia: 19.3"JFK: 16.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Seasonal Snowfall 2012-13 As of 17 March 2013 / 8:00 AM ET Bridgeport: 61.3" NWS Upton: 50.2" Islip: 45.3" Newark: 27.4" NYC Central Park: 23.1" LaGuardia: 19.3" JFK: 16.2" to show how odd a winter this has been area wide - do you have the average seasonal snowfall for each of those reporting stations ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Do you mean normal year to date or for a full season...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 This map represents the "worst case scenario", which we all hope verifies! I'd say it's 80-20 that the other map I posted is closer to the solution, but there's always a chance, and this is supported somewhat by the GGEM/RGEM/UKIE, although I even went above them, assuming a cold trend would continue. Keep in mind that this is not my official thoughts, nor what I think is the likely scenario. -skisheep EDIT: Mods, I've been 5 posted, and I'm not sure why, since I can't think of anything that I posted that violates the rules that are posted on the site, and even if I messed up the new forum warning regulations illustrated both in the crackdown notice posted here and on the rules page state that a first offense is a verbal warning, which I have never received. I'd appreciate a PM when you get a chance. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 My preliminary thoughts, I think I might be a bit too low for the city and parts of NJ(some of my NJ c-2" is probably 1-3" and some of the 1-3" probably 2-5", I don't really know much about NJ wx so I went conservative, can always go up if needed). I think LI is going to be ugly in this, I'm treating them like NYC and added another inch, but I would be suprised if they see more than 1-3". firstguess 3 1819 2013.jpg -skisheep rather simple forecast for the area in red - basically the same result as yesterdays totals - c- 2 is being too generous for most of that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Don't you love the weather here? Not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Dammit earthlight my pic was funny! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Dammit earthlight my pic was funny! That was me, actually But here it is! Credit to you, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Random stat: Today was the first sub 40 degree day in the 2nd half of March since 3/17/07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Random stat: Today was the first sub 40 degree day in the 2nd half of March since 3/17/07 Climo says: Impossible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 measurable March snowfalls from the 16th on..I found three years with four events...seven more with three...there are at least ten years with two...yesterday had 0.3... we could see the same tomorrow...maybe more after that... 1916.....3.4.....0.3.....5.0.....3.3 1956.....6.7...11.6.....1.2.....4.2... 1940.....2.0.....0.1.....3.2.....1.8... 1890.....6.0.....0.5.....3.1... 1896...12.0.....4.5.....3.3... 1899.....0.5.....0.3.....1.0... 1907.....0.8.....0.8.....5.0... 1933.....1.8.....0.2.....0.2... 1965.....1.1.....1.8.....1.2... 1967.....2.6.....3.0.....9.8... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The ensembles have the little sneaky wave for Wednesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The ensembles have the little sneaky wave for Wednesday night A reinforcement of cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 This is so annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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