Early Spring Banter Thread

[masomenos]

Nah, once you get north of the GWB/Route 80 the heat island influence is minimal if at all. I've lived in the NE NJ region for 13 years (Madison, Jersey City and now Cliffside Park) and it is noticeably colder and snowier north of Route 80 and into Rockland. Heat Island impacts really do not hurt those folks. I see you are from Norwood and you do much better than me most winters for sure.

We still get hit hard by UHI up this way. It's not really until you get north and west of Paramus that UHI dissipates.  Sure, storm to storm there are big differences in totals thoughout the 20 mile radius outside of NYC, but in the grand scheme of things, the differences are minimal by the end of the winter more times than not. 287 is the ultimate benchmark imo. Pretty drastic differences in climo when get up that way.

[masomenos]

 

This sums it up pretty well. Snowfall climo is pretty uniform for the meat of the metro area.

[Guest Pamela]

snowclimo_s.png

 

This sums it up pretty well. Snowfall climo is pretty uniform for the meat of the metro area.

 

Major lol at the 30 - 35 inch average over the WSO in Upton...and less everywhere else on L.I....only reason it is drawn that way is because there are almost no other stations other than Upton themself on the Island with a reliable long term snowfall record...Islip began in the 1980's but their records are missing tons of data and accurate recond keeping did not begin there until 2008.  Bridgehampton has a very good record but they just represent the South Fork...& Setauket's record has much more missing data than Islip.  Patchogue, on the South Shore, went out of business in 1997...after a long run and a 30" average...and the all time record for seasonal snowfall for the Island...92 inches in 1995-96. 

Westbury, in Nassau County, was in business for 10 years...1981-1990...and averaged 25.5" of snow during that span...given that it was a bleak 10 years...the average was pretty decent.  Recently opened co-ops at Mt Sinai & Centerport on the N. Shore give hope that a better record will emerge in the coming years...

[Guest Pamela]

Looking closer...that map is not too good...southern Westhester...southern Rockland...most of Bergen....and southern CT do *not* average 25-30 inches of snow per year...more like 33 - 38 inches (higher amounts north).

[nzucker]

snowclimo_s.png

 

This sums it up pretty well. Snowfall climo is pretty uniform for the meat of the metro area.

This map is not very accurate, as has been discussed before in these threads. Living in Westchester, I know that downtown Dobbs Ferry at the co-op has averaged 36" snowfall/season since 1946, and thus higher parts of the town away from the concrete in the 300-400' elevation band are probably more like 38"/year, yet the map shows 25-30" even well north of my area. This is a GROSS under-representation of how much snow falls here, and it ignores local co-op data like the one in Dobbs Ferry which has tracked snowfall for the better part of 70 years. Sticking with my area (Westchester), the map shows higher snowfall averages in the pink 30-35" band right near Long Island Sound in the eastern parts of Westchester County like Rye. However, simple logic tells you that places near the Sound average less than places further west with a more continental climate. How could the 50' elevations right on the water in the eastern areas of Westchester average more than someone at 400' far from the water in Dobbs? Ridiculous! 

 

On Long Island, there are also several obvious mistakes. It shows everyone from the LIE south in the light blue, averaging 20-25" snowfall per year. However, JFK, which is right on the water in the urban heat island had a 1981-2010 average of 23.8" per season, and that airport clearly receives less snow than more rural areas 20 miles northeast farther from the water and farther from the city. Much of the area right along the LIE is probably getting 30" per year, that this map only shows 20-25". Moreover, I expect the jackpot zone of 30-35" is a bit further northwest, and a bit more extensive. There are quite a few parts of the North Shore in the 200-300' elevation band that see at least 30" of snowfall per season. 

 

One of the problems with creating a map like this is that our climate is SO nuanced, and snowfall amounts do vary pretty noticeable in small distances. Yet, in a project like that, you have to broadbrush. I'm not excusing errors like the under-portrayal of Westchester and LI snowfall, but it's clearly hard to do this accurately. For example, Todt Hill on Staten Island is 410' elevation, and yet the map shows Staten Island in the lowest snowfall of 20-25" (which is logical, but underdone like the rest of the map). However, the highest elevations of Staten Island probably receive close to 35" of snow a year being in the interior of the island with weak upslope, rural countryside, and protection from easterly flow unlike the South Fork which the map shows at 25-30"...

[Guest Pamela]

We've been over this for years...again, I pin it on not enough stations with accurate data...how many co-ops are their in Rockland County? One?

[snywx]

This map is not very accurate, as has been discussed before in these threads. Living in Westchester, I know that downtown Dobbs Ferry at the co-op has averaged 36" snowfall/season since 1946, and thus higher parts of the town away from the concrete in the 300-400' elevation band are probably more like 38"/year, yet the map shows 25-30" even well north of my area. This is a GROSS under-representation of how much snow falls here, and it ignores local co-op data like the one in Dobbs Ferry which has tracked snowfall for the better part of 70 years. Sticking with my area (Westchester), the map shows higher snowfall averages in the pink 30-35" band right near Long Island Sound in the eastern parts of Westchester County like Rye. However, simple logic tells you that places near the Sound average less than places further west with a more continental climate. How could the 50' elevations right on the water in the eastern areas of Westchester average more than someone at 400' far from the water in Dobbs? Ridiculous! 

 

On Long Island, there are also several obvious mistakes. It shows everyone from the LIE south in the light blue, averaging 20-25" snowfall per year. However, JFK, which is right on the water in the urban heat island had a 1981-2010 average of 23.8" per season, and that airport clearly receives less snow than more rural areas 20 miles northeast farther from the water and farther from the city. Much of the area right along the LIE is probably getting 30" per year, that this map only shows 20-25". Moreover, I expect the jackpot zone of 30-35" is a bit further northwest, and a bit more extensive. There are quite a few parts of the North Shore in the 200-300' elevation band that see at least 30" of snowfall per season. 

 

One of the problems with creating a map like this is that our climate is SO nuanced, and snowfall amounts do vary pretty noticeable in small distances. Yet, in a project like that, you have to broadbrush. I'm not excusing errors like the under-portrayal of Westchester and LI snowfall, but it's clearly hard to do this accurately. For example, Todt Hill on Staten Island is 410' elevation, and yet the map shows Staten Island in the lowest snowfall of 20-25" (which is logical, but underdone like the rest of the map). However, the highest elevations of Staten Island probably receive close to 35" of snow a year being in the interior of the island with weak upslope, rural countryside, and protection from easterly flow unlike the South Fork which the map shows at 25-30"...

Even up here in Orange that map is suspect.. Most areas around me are 50-53" range not 45-50.. Above 1000' and its closer to 56-58". Eastern side of the county has quite a few spots that are in the 50"+ range as well..

[masomenos]

Major lol at the 30 - 35 inch average over the WSO in Upton...and less everywhere else on L.I....only reason it is drawn that way is because there are almost no other stations other than Upton themself on the Island with a reliable long term snowfall record...Islip began in the 1980's but their records are missing tons of data and accurate recond keeping did not begin there until 2008.  Bridgehampton has a very good record but they just represent the South Fork...& Setauket's record has much more missing data than Islip.  Patchogue, on the South Shore, went out of business in 1997...after a long run and a 30" average...and the all time record for seasonal snowfall for the Island...92 inches in 1995-96. 

Westbury, in Nassau County, was in business for 10 years...1981-1990...and averaged 25.5" of snow during that span...given that it was a bleak 10 years...the average was pretty decent.  Recently opened co-ops at Mt Sinai & Centerport on the N. Shore give hope that a better record will emerge in the coming years...

 

 

This map is not very accurate, as has been discussed before in these threads. Living in Westchester, I know that downtown Dobbs Ferry at the co-op has averaged 36" snowfall/season since 1946, and thus higher parts of the town away from the concrete in the 300-400' elevation band are probably more like 38"/year, yet the map shows 25-30" even well north of my area. This is a GROSS under-representation of how much snow falls here, and it ignores local co-op data like the one in Dobbs Ferry which has tracked snowfall for the better part of 70 years. Sticking with my area (Westchester), the map shows higher snowfall averages in the pink 30-35" band right near Long Island Sound in the eastern parts of Westchester County like Rye. However, simple logic tells you that places near the Sound average less than places further west with a more continental climate. How could the 50' elevations right on the water in the eastern areas of Westchester average more than someone at 400' far from the water in Dobbs? Ridiculous! 

 

On Long Island, there are also several obvious mistakes. It shows everyone from the LIE south in the light blue, averaging 20-25" snowfall per year. However, JFK, which is right on the water in the urban heat island had a 1981-2010 average of 23.8" per season, and that airport clearly receives less snow than more rural areas 20 miles northeast farther from the water and farther from the city. Much of the area right along the LIE is probably getting 30" per year, that this map only shows 20-25". Moreover, I expect the jackpot zone of 30-35" is a bit further northwest, and a bit more extensive. There are quite a few parts of the North Shore in the 200-300' elevation band that see at least 30" of snowfall per season. 

 

One of the problems with creating a map like this is that our climate is SO nuanced, and snowfall amounts do vary pretty noticeable in small distances. Yet, in a project like that, you have to broadbrush. I'm not excusing errors like the under-portrayal of Westchester and LI snowfall, but it's clearly hard to do this accurately. For example, Todt Hill on Staten Island is 410' elevation, and yet the map shows Staten Island in the lowest snowfall of 20-25" (which is logical, but underdone like the rest of the map). However, the highest elevations of Staten Island probably receive close to 35" of snow a year being in the interior of the island with weak upslope, rural countryside, and protection from easterly flow unlike the South Fork which the map shows at 25-30"...

No snowfall map is going to be perfect, but it does properly indicate where the sharp gradient in the metro area is. It's impossible to create a map that's going to show averages for every little lump in elevation. 25-30 is definitely the right average in this area after taking a good 15 years worth of measurments. (I live in extreme northeast Bergen)

[Guest Pamela]

The map has 80% of Orange County in 40 - 45 inches...which is quite simply wrong. 

[Guest Pamela]

No snowfall map is going to be perfect, but it does properly indicate where the sharp gradient in the metro area is. It's impossible to create a map that's going to show averages for every little lump in elevation. 25-30 is definitely the right average in this area after taking a good 15 years worth of measurments. (I live in extreme northeast Bergen)

 

I agree about that..but the guys who drew that map for the Appalachian Trail in N. Jersey came up with what I would consider a superior product.  Given the advances in computerization and graphic art & design...the NWS product is rather disappointing. 

[nzucker]

Even up here in Orange that map is suspect.. Most areas around me are 50-53" range not 45-50.. Above 1000' and its closer to 56-58". Eastern side of the county has quite a few spots that are in the 50"+ range as well..

 

I believe you...the higher elevations around Harriman (Hudson Highlands) receive quite a bit of snowfall...the map should include a maximum area on the west side of river near the Rockland/Orange border as that has a lot of the 1000' elevations that surround the snowy triangle (Harriman, Highland Mills, etc). I think snowfall probably decreases a bit from Harriman State Park to Exit 120 on Route 17, and then rapidly starts to increase past Exit 118 as elevations increase into the Catskills. All of the map is MUCH too low.

 

However, I think these mapping exercises are in some ways futile for such a nuanced climate. There are always going to be exceptions for urban heat island (look at the difference in snowfall and snow retention between suburban NE Queens and urban East New York, separated by less than 10 miles). There are always going to be exceptions for elevation due to the fact that this is a hilly area (look at the difference between what the 400-450' elevations in Dobbs Ferry's Juhring Estate and the Irvington Reservoir receive/retain compared to downtown Mount Vernon, a distance of about 7 miles). And finally, some areas seem to have a knack for doing better in certain storms (look at the central North Shore of LI from Huntington to Port Jefferson, versus just 20 miles west in Queens Village where so many Miller Bs and clippers miss). It's a varied climate around here, and that's what makes it interesting. 

[nzucker]

The map has 80% of Orange County in 40 - 45 inches...which is quite simply wrong. 

 

He misses the first major ridge that runs up from Franklin Lakes to Sterling State Forest to Harriman State Park, and more importantly he totally broadbrushes the Catskill escarpment. No one averages more than 45" or so on either of those ridges? Heck, I'm averaging 42" a season at 350' in Dobbs Ferry since 00-01. 

[Guest Pamela]

He misses the first major ridge that runs up from Franklin Lakes to Sterling State Forest to Harriman State Park, and more importantly he totally broadbrushes the Catskill escarpment. No one averages more than 45" or so on either of those ridges? Heck, I'm averaging 42" a season at 350' in Dobbs Ferry since 00-01. 

 

Back in the 1950's...the NY state climatologist drew a beautiful map for the entire state depicting average annual snowfall...wish I could find it in my files.

[snywx]

I believe you...the higher elevations around Harriman (Hudson Highlands) receive quite a bit of snowfall...the map should include a maximum area on the west side of river near the Rockland/Orange border as that has a lot of the 1000' elevations that surround the snowy triangle (Harriman, Highland Mills, etc). I think snowfall probably decreases a bit from Harriman State Park to Exit 120 on Route 17, and then rapidly starts to increase past Exit 118 as elevations increase into the Catskills. All of the map is MUCH too low.

 

However, I think these mapping exercises are in some ways futile for such a nuanced climate. There are always going to be exceptions for urban heat island (look at the difference in snowfall and snow retention between suburban NE Queens and urban East New York, separated by less than 10 miles). There are always going to be exceptions for elevation due to the fact that this is a hilly area (look at the difference between what the 400-450' elevations in Dobbs Ferry's Juhring Estate and the Irvington Reservoir receive/retain compared to downtown Mount Vernon, a distance of about 7 miles). And finally, some areas seem to have a knack for doing better in certain storms (look at the central North Shore of LI from Huntington to Port Jefferson, versus just 20 miles west in Queens Village where so many Miller Bs and clippers miss). It's a varied climate around here, and that's what makes it interesting. 

Most of Harriman/Monroe/Highland Mills is elevated probably in the range of 700'-1200' with some uninhabited areas over 1400'.. That area is without a doubt the snow capital of the NY metro area.. If I had to take a guess I would say 55-60" on average there. As you drive west toward Goshen/Chester/Washingtonville averages drop off to around 50" or so then jump back up to 53"+ from Middletown northwestward. Elevation sky rockets once you get passed Pine Bush & west toward Greenville. Im on the border of Greenville & Middletown and I probably average 3" less than areas 3 miles or so west of me simply cause of elevation..

[masomenos]

 

This was the only Appalachian map I was able to find. Miss those maps.

 

The Storm King area is an awesome drive during the early/late season storms

[snywx]

hudson.JPG

 

This was the only Appalachian map I was able to find. Miss those maps.

 

The Storm King area is an awesome drive during the early/late season storms

Look at the max on the west side of 87.. lol   That is the Harriman/Monroe/Highland mills triangle of snow. These maps have amazing accuracy!

[Guest Pamela]

Since there is likely no station data to corroborate the #'s...I assume it is a map based almost entirely on the influence of topography. 

[Guest Pamela]

The thing that is funny is that many of the high resolution computer snowfall *forecast* maps *do* in fact take into account very minor differences with regards to things like terrain...resulting in a very accurate depiction of the amount of snow that is to be expected. 

[ace0927]

My statement reflects my opinion, which is an un-educated guess based upon this winter and previous winters which also sucked, that KNYC will NOT, I repeat NOT see another snow event with 4"+ until Autumn 2013. Whether that happens in October, November or December, I don't know anything about the upcoming season to even make a guess.

 

But as far as winter is concerned, the snow is over.

 

I do see a great deal of solid evidence, however; that we're gonna be cold - which is annoying.

yeah I agree....freaken nothing worse than a cold and not white march/early april

[MJO812]

yeah I agree....freaken nothing worse than a cold and not white march/early april

 

Hopefully we can squeeze out a snow event.

[Zir0b]

6Z DGEX   

[IsentropicLift]

6Z DGEX   

Don't laugh too hard, it actually is in fairly good agreement with the 00z ECMWF. I'm not sure if that's good or bad for the Euro's sake lol

[MJO812]

Time to break out the FIM

[Allsnow]

Good god who cares about Steve d

[Dsnowx53]

Good god who cares about Steve d

 

 

Seriously. 

[Storm At Sea]

Please keep your opinions of steve in another thread or preferably to yourself.

[earthlight]

Please keep your opinions of steve in another thread or preferably to yourself.

 

Here you go. Go crazy.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39531-vendorblog-forecast-discussion-thread/

[Allsnow]

Mitchell volk making me blush in the other thread

[earthlight]

Mitchell volk making me blush in the other thread

 

Keep your pants tent down for now...170+ hours away

[Allsnow]

Keep your pants tent down for now...170+ hours away

I should not have to hide my feelings