Early Spring Banter Thread

[snywx]

To say that the average snowfall at the park is represenative of what most people see in this sub-forum is a complete travesty. I called you out because your initial numbers were way off, stating that 12+ million people live on the heat island when in fact way less than 2 million people live in Manhatten itself. In fact, Brooklyn has over a million more residents than Manhatten.

 

Brooklyn by itself can be the 4th largest city in the country based off population.. lol

[masomenos]

The heat island covers a lot more than Manhattan itself. Just about all of northeastern NJ, Southern Rockland, Southern Westchester, all of the 5 boroughs, and Nassau fall within the influence of the heat island.

To say that the average snowfall at the park is represenative of what most people see in this sub-forum is a complete travesty. I called you out because your initial numbers were way off, stating that 12+ million people live on the heat island when in fact way less than 2 million people live in Manhatten itself. In fact, Brooklyn has over a million more residents than Manhatten.

[pazzo83]

To say that the average snowfall at the park is represenative of what most people see in this sub-forum is a complete travesty. I called you out because your initial numbers were way off, stating that 12+ million people live on the heat island when in fact way less than 2 million people live in Manhatten itself. In fact, Brooklyn has over a million more residents than Manhatten.

 

Where was I talking about snowfall?  Also, as you'll see from the 4 airports I cited above, the temp does not really vary across NYC because the entire city and its immediate vicinity (where more than 12mm people reside) are part of the heat island.  In fact, LGA in Queens is often warmer than the park.  As is EWR.

[pazzo83]

Morristown is 25 miles from the park

Somerset is 34 miles from the park

Newburgh is 53 miles from the park..

 

I stand corrected, but they are still outside of the roughly 20 mile radius around the park where most of the metro lives.

[IsentropicLift]

Brooklyn by itself can be the 4th largest city in the country based off population.. lol

I never understood how Queens and Long Island ever became part of the state of New York. When you look at the natural boundries that normally signify state lines Long Island clearly looks as if it should be its own state. With Queens included as it's connected.

[IsentropicLift]

Where was I talking about snowfall?  Also, as you'll see from the 4 airports I cited above, the temp does not really vary across NYC because the entire city and its immediate vicinity (where more than 12mm people reside) are part of the heat island.  In fact, LGA in Queens is often warmer than the park.  As is EWR.

That post was aimed at Orographic Lift because he specifically stated snowfall.

 

This sub forum is very diverse from one end to the next. You have the highlands in the NW region. The Western and northern suburbs, the city itself, the other 4 boroughs and then Long Island. It can often by raining in NYC and snowing 20 miles NW. At the same token it can be snowing on Long Island and NW areas can be high and dry. It's just a luck of the draw. The city can often be in a bad geographical location for snow. If coastals take too close of a track they can mix or rain, or if it's too far east or south, the best snows can miss to the east, just like we saw with the Blizzard earlier this month. Sure, NYC can occasionally hit the JP, most often with the biggies when the snow is so widespread that everyone cashes in.

[Stormlover74]

To say that the average snowfall at the park is represenative of what most people see in this sub-forum is a complete travesty. I called you out because your initial numbers were way off, stating that 12+ million people live on the heat island when in fact way less than 2 million people live in Manhatten itself. In fact, Brooklyn has over a million more residents than Manhatten.

anyone who lives in the route 1 / parkway / turnpike corridor from new Brunswick to hackensack..including teterboro and Newark is much closer to nyc temp and snowfall wise than the temp/snowfall profile of morris/ Passaic county west of 287. how often do you see linden Newark jersey city getting snow while Manhattan is raining?...almost never...how often is ewr raining while n&w of 287 is snowing?

[IsentropicLift]

anyone who lives in the route 1 / parkway / turnpike corridor from new Brunswick to hackensack..including teterboro and Newark is much closer to nyc temp and snowfall wise than the temp/snowfall profile of morris/ Passaic county west of 287. how often do you see linden Newark jersey city getting snow while Manhattan is raining?...almost never...how often is ewr raining while n&w of 287 is snowing?

So in other words the areas of this sub-forum NW of I-287 don't count? How often is it raining in NYC and snowing in Wayne, NJ? That's within the "20 mile zone". 

[dbc]

The heat island covers a lot more than Manhattan itself. Just about all of northeastern NJ, Southern Rockland, Southern Westchester, all of the 5 boroughs, and Nassau fall within the influence of the heat island.

 

Nah, once you get north of the GWB/Route 80 the heat island influence is minimal if at all. I've lived in the NE NJ region for 13 years (Madison, Jersey City and now Cliffside Park) and it is noticeably colder and snowier north of Route 80 and into Rockland. Heat Island impacts really do not hurt those folks. I see you are from Norwood and you do much better than me most winters for sure.

[IsentropicLift]

Nah, once you get north of the GWB/Route 80 the heat island influence is minimal if at all. I've lived in the NE NJ region for 13 years (Madison, Jersey City and now Cliffside Park) and it is noticeably colder and snowier north of Route 80 and into Rockland. Heat Island impacts really do not hurt those folks. I see you are from Norwood and you do much better than me most winters for sure.

Thank you

 

Sure, the Paterson/Passaic/Newark/Jersey City/Hoboken corridor suffers from some Urban Heat factor, but it's not to the extent that NYC sees.

[Stormlover74]

So in other words the areas of this sub-forum NW of I-287 don't count? How often is it raining in NYC and snowing in Wayne, NJ? That's within the "20 mile zone". 

I didn't say they don't count. What my point was is that more people within the NYC Metropolitan area experience conditions closer to Central park than they do Morristown or White Plains. So if we're going to pick a central location that MORE people can identify with it would be central park. Forget 20 miles. Just do 10 miles and you still have over half the population within that radius.

Area wise this might not be the case but population wise it is.

[IsentropicLift]

Back to real banter, the 12z GFS was painfully close to bringing a big storm up the coast in the 8-10 day time frame.

[IsentropicLift]

I didn't say they don't count. What my point was is that more people within the NYC Metropolitan area experience conditions closer to Central park than they do Morristown or White Plains. So if we're going to pick a central location that MORE people can identify with it would be central park. Forget 20 miles. Just do 10 miles and you still have over half the population within that radius.

Area wise this might not be the case but population wise it is.

More people live outside those 10 miles, if you count the entire metro area. That includes all the way up to Orange County, all the way West to Warren and Sussex County, all the way south Monmouth County, northeastward up into CT and then all of Long Island except the eastern half of Suffolk, which probably is more a part of New England than the NYC metro.

[Kaner587]

Back to real banter, the 12z GFS was painfully close to bringing a big storm up the coast in the 8-10 day time frame.

Ya. Both the 5-6 day threat and 8-9 day threat are real and in play. I hate the trough axis for the former so I think if we miss one it'll be that, but I like that we have 2 chances. The day 8-9 looks like a bowling bowl once it drops down from Canada. A lot will depend and how the ULL from the 5-6 day threat interacts and how much confluence is over the area. Either way the effect of a strong west based block is easy to be seen on the GFS. Also right at truncation it starts to break the block down, so I doubt it ends up breaking down so quickly. Well probably have 10-14 days of strong blocking until it breaks down. Then the pacific may cooperate and the cold unleashes. At least if you believe the fantasy land GFS

[pazzo83]

Nah, once you get north of the GWB/Route 80 the heat island influence is minimal if at all. I've lived in the NE NJ region for 13 years (Madison, Jersey City and now Cliffside Park) and it is noticeably colder and snowier north of Route 80 and into Rockland. Heat Island impacts really do not hurt those folks. I see you are from Norwood and you do much better than me most winters for sure.

Uh, north of the GWB is still in NYC.  Pretty sure the heat island has some effect there.

[pazzo83]

More people live outside those 10 miles, if you count the entire metro area. That includes all the way up to Orange County, all the way West to Warren and Sussex County, all the way south Monmouth County, northeastward up into CT and then all of Long Island except the eastern half of Suffolk, which probably is more a part of New England than the NYC metro.

Nearly half the metro area lives in NYC proper, add in areas immediately adjacent to it and you are probably around 10mm.  More than half the metro.

[IsentropicLift]

Uh, north of the GWB is still in NYC.  Pretty sure the heat island has some effect there.

He was referring to New Jersey, not the Bronx and southern Weschester. But once you get into Yonkers the urban effect is much less anyway.

[IsentropicLift]

Nearly half the metro area lives in NYC proper, add in areas immediately adjacent to it and you are probably around 10mm.  More than half the metro.

Respectufully disagree

[pazzo83]

Respectufully disagree

 

You respectfully disagree that the NYC metro area has 19.01mm people and NYC has 8.25mm people?

[Cfa]

Respectufully disagree

It's true though.

[dbc]

Uh, north of the GWB is still in NYC.  Pretty sure the heat island has some effect there.

The impact reduces dramatically if it exists at all on the NJ side of the river. Don't forget elevation goes soaring up once you get north of 80/the GWB and this has an influence as well. I'd contend elevation begins to negate any heat island impact as you get past the GWB and up the Palisades Parkway and westward towards 287 in New Jersey. I was addressing Orographic Lift's post specifically for NE NJ and Rockland not Bronx/Yonkers/Westchester.

[snywx]

If you take NYC ( 5 boros) and 10 miles surrounding it you probably have 60-70% of the metro population. 60-70% sounds like alot but the fact of matter is that still leaves out 6 or so million ppl lol..

[pazzo83]

To put all to rest, here is the population in various radii from 14 E 60th St (SE corner of Central Park):

 

1 mi: 183,878

3 mi: 1,254,198

5 mi: 2,634,170

10 mi: 7,309,548

20 mi: 12,390,353

[jm1220]

[snywx]

To put all to rest, here is the population in various radii from 14 E 60th St (SE corner of Central Park):

 

1 mi: 183,878

3 mi: 1,254,198

5 mi: 2,634,170

10 mi: 7,309,548

20 mi: 12,390,353

The only problem I have is that Central Park is not a central location within the 5 boros.. Im sure if you do the same survey from downtown BK I'm sure those numbers will be higher.

[pazzo83]

 

This forum is unparalleled in the vitriolic response you get from some members at the suggestion that winter is drawing to a close.

[pazzo83]

The only problem I have is that Central Park is not a central location within the 5 boros.. Im sure if you do the same survey from downtown BK I'm sure those numbers will be higher.

Yes, and the climate in downtown BK (or really almost anywhere in BK except right along the ocean) is virtually identical to Manhattan.

[snywx]

Yes, and the climate in downtown BK (or really almost anywhere in BK except right along the ocean) is virtually identical to Manhattan.

Exactly.. lol Im not arguing with you. Im actually agreeing with you. I think it was orographic lift who said anyone within 20 miles of NYC has virtually the same weather outcome and that simply is not true. I would say the radius is closer to 10 miles..

[Stormlover74]

Getting back to talking about snow, if Central Park doesn't see significant measureable snowfall the rest of the winter (3" or more), its a good bet that the majority of the metro area won't either. Yes that does mean 30-40% of the area could still see a significant snowfall even if NYC does not and the chances of areas 30 miles north and west seeing 3" or more is probably at least triple.

[IsentropicLift]

Exactly.. lol Im not arguing with you. Im actually agreeing with you. I think it was orographic lift who said anyone within 20 miles of NYC has virtually the same weather outcome and that simply is not true. I would say the radius is closer to 10 miles..

Thank you, temperature wise, of course in most cases there isn't going to be a huge difference. But it does matter when it's 34 and rain in the city and 30 and snow in White Plains.