pazzo83 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 This sub forum covers a lot more than just New York City. It was in the low 20's here last night. My post and his reply were referring directly to Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I'll believe it when we're within a couple days. Alright man...lets say it doesn't pan out as cold or strong a block...upper 30's low 40's with lows around 30 is early spring? The pattern doesn't look to change anytime soon I think you need to take a look at the PNA/EPO/NAO/AO indices along with mid range models. But what do I know. You could also read the thoughts from earthlight dsnow et al on this forum or head up to Sne and read coastalwx or orh. What information are you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 This nonsense needs to stop. Guess how many times KNYC has dropped below 20 in the month of April? ONCE. On April 1, 1923, when the high was 36 and the low was 12. Before March 31, perhaps. But even then you are talking about a relatively low probability. Out of all the possible samples of days in March since 1876 (4,247), the temp dropped below 20 only 283 times, or about 6.7% of the time (last time was 2007). Now if we restrict that to March 15 - March 30th, that narrows down to 85 occurrences out of 2329 possible, or 3.65% of the time. And THAT hasn't happened since 1993. You have way too much time on your hands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 I just don't understand why KNYC is always the measuring stick, it's not the center of the Universe, far from it actually. The urban heat island factor combined with the ocean influince makes its weather a lot different than the rest of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Alright man...lets say it doesn't pan out as cold or strong a block...upper 30's low 40's with lows around 30 is early spring? The pattern doesn't look to change anytime soon I think you need to take a look at the PNA/EPO/NAO/AO indices along with mid range models. But what do I know. You could also read the thoughts from earthlight dsnow et al on this forum or head up to Sne and read coastalwx or orh. What information are you looking at? Well firstly, models in the long range this year have been absolute sh*t, so I wouldn't look at them as gospel regardless of the extent to which they agree. Secondly, I'm not seeing how a block keeps us that cold without a fresh supply of cold air (and it looks like Canada will be torching, relative to their norms of course). No one is calling for 70s but highs in the 40s / lows in the 30s is not that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I just don't understand why KNYC is always the measuring stick, it's not the center of the Universe, far from it actually. The urban heat island factor combined with the ocean influince makes its weather a lot different than the rest of the region. Because around 12+ million of the 18 million in the metro area live in the heat island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 You have way too much time on your hands I found a db of NYC daily temps going back to Jan 1 1876. Just took a few simple sql queries really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 Because around 12+ million of the 18 million in the metro area live in the heat island? Honestly who cares. As of 2011 the population of NYC was only 8,244,910. That includes all 5 boroughs. Not exaxtly the 12+ million you speak of. In fact only 1,601,948 live on the "Heat island" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_New_York_City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Honestly who cares. As of 2011 the population of NYC was only 8,244,910. That includes all 5 boroughs. Not exaxtly the 12+ million you speak of. Right because the weather is materially different in western Nassau, southern Westchester, Jersey City/Hoboken, Newark, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Because around 12+ million of the 18 million in the metro area live in the heat island? What ? Out of the 19 million ppl in the metro area only 1.6 million ppl live in Manhattan lol smh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 What ? Out of the 19 million ppl in the metro area only 1.6 million ppl live in Manhattan lol smh.. See above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Right because the weather is materially different in western Nassau, southern Westchester, Jersey City/Hoboken, Newark, etc. Isn't Mt Zucker in Southern Westchester? lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 Right because the weather is materially different in western Nassau, southern Westchester, Jersey City/Hoboken, Newark, etc. What about Middletown, NY? Morristown, NJ? Somerset, NJ? West Nyack, NY? Ohhhh wait, that's right, according to you, these places don't exist right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Isn't Mt Zucker in Southern Westchester? lol.. Monthly lows for Feb: HPN: 14F NYC: 17F LGA: 19F JFK: 17F EWR: 15F Mean: 16.4 Median: 17 Std Dev: 1.95 Monthly highs for Feb: HPN: 51F NYC: 55F LGA: 53F JFK: 49F EWR: 57F Mean: 53 Median: 53 Std Dev: 3.16 Avg temps for Feb: HPN: 30F NYC: 33F LGA: 34F JFK: 33F EWR: 34F Mean: 32.8 Median: 33 Std Dev: 1.64 Not really much of a spread there, except perhaps on the monthly high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I guess a few people in here need a lesson in demograhics or two. 15+ million people live within the core of the urban NYC metro area or within 20 miles of Central Park. I'd say Central Park is fairly representative of the snowfall most people in this area experience. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I guess a few people in here need a lesson in demograhics or two. 15+ million people live within the core of the urban NYC metro area or within 20 miles of Central Park. I'd say Central Park is fairly representative of the snowfall most people in this area experience. lol Temps? Maybe. Snow? No way lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 Monthly lows for Feb: HPN: 14F NYC: 17F LGA: 19F JFK: 17F EWR: 15F Mean: 16.4 Median: 17 Std Dev: 1.95 Monthly highs for Feb: HPN: 51F NYC: 55F LGA: 53F JFK: 49F EWR: 57F Mean: 53 Median: 53 Std Dev: 3.16 Avg temps for Feb: HPN: 30F NYC: 33F LGA: 34F JFK: 33F EWR: 34F Mean: 32.8 Median: 33 Std Dev: 1.64 Not really much of a spread there, except perhaps on the monthly high. HPN is signficiantly colder than LGA. What if you included MMU, SMQ and SWF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 I guess a few people in here need a lesson in demograhics or two. 15+ million people live within the core of the urban NYC metro area or within 20 miles of Central Park. I'd say Central Park is fairly representative of the snowfall most people in this area experience. lol You're joking right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I guess a few people in here need a lesson in demograhics or two. 15+ million people live within the core of the urban NYC metro area or within 20 miles of Central Park. I'd say Central Park is fairly representative of the snowfall most people in this area experience. lol 20 Miles? lol... You aren't serious with this comment are you? 20 miles north puts you pretty far into Westchester & Rockland.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 20 Miles? lol... You aren't serious with this comment are you? 20 miles north puts you pretty far into Westchester & Rockland.. 20 Miles west almost gets you to my house in Morris County. The only locations in this area that see less snow than the Park are LGA and JFK, and sometimes JFK can do really well with the big ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Temps? Maybe. Snow? No way lol 20 miles is within 287. Nobody within 287 is averaging more than 10" above Central Park. 80% are probaby within 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Temps? Maybe. Snow? No way lol Well that's just because they apparently don't know how to measure snow in the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 20 Miles? lol... You aren't serious with this comment are you? 20 miles north puts you pretty far into Westchester & Rockland.. Not really. HPN is about 30 miles from the park. EWR is about 16-17 miles from the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Not really. HPN is about 30 miles from the park. EWR is about 16-17 miles from the park. Actually its 22 miles. Straight line distance.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 HPN is signficiantly colder than LGA. What if you included MMU, SMQ and SWF? Morristown, NJ (MMU) is 30+ miles from the park (and only has about 18,000 people, with Morris Co less than 500,000). Somerset, NJ (SMQ) is nearly 50 miles from the park, pop: 22,000, Somerset Co pop: 323,000) SWF is over 60 miles from the park, in a county with less than 375,000 people. That's why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 Well that's just because they apparently don't know how to measure snow in the park. Must be some conspiracy, I would contact the National Weather Service right away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Actually its 22 miles. Straight line distance.. I get 25.22 miles, but regardless. The difference in temps is not significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Well that's just because they apparently don't know how to measure snow in the park. Yeah thats what i meant lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Morristown, NJ (MMU) is 30+ miles from the park (and only has about 18,000 people, with Morris Co less than 500,000). Somerset, NJ (SMQ) is nearly 50 miles from the park, pop: 22,000, Somerset Co pop: 323,000) SWF is over 60 miles from the park, in a county with less than 375,000 people. That's why. Morristown is 25 miles from the park Somerset is 34 miles from the park Newburgh is 53 miles from the park.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 Morristown, NJ (MMU) is 30+ miles from the park (and only has about 18,000 people, with Morris Co less than 500,000). Somerset, NJ (SMQ) is nearly 50 miles from the park, pop: 22,000, Somerset Co pop: 323,000) SWF is over 60 miles from the park, in a county with less than 375,000 people. That's why. To say that the average snowfall at the park is represenative of what most people see in this sub-forum is a complete travesty. I called you out because your initial numbers were way off, stating that 12+ million people live on the heat island when in fact way less than 2 million people live in Manhatten itself. In fact, Brooklyn has over a million more residents than Manhatten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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