Guest Patrick Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I am going to take the liberty that this is a banter thread and defend Snow88. Not sure how long you have been around, and he may love snow more than most of us, but his knowledge and analysis are in the top roughly 25% or so in this forum. The only bigger comeback than Snow88 going from a weenie to an educated amateur would have been if Amy Winehouse showed up at the grammys this year. Your tone is misplaced, and your forecast is bold. mkerwood, on 25 Feb 2013 - 14:56, said: Give it up, weenie. Mark my words: The NYC Metro Area will not see another moderate, major or severe winter weather event (i.e. ice, snow, etc.) until December 2013. We just didn't have an El Nino this year like we thought we would. NYC has been the screw zone. Upstate NY, Connecticut, Long Island all had great winters. NYC hasn't. Some days you get the bear, some days the bear gets you. But for the sake of heating bills, I'm ready for 60s and sunshine. Words marked. For the record, moderate is 3", significant is 6", anything above 12 can be considered major/severe. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Words marked. For the record, moderate is 3", significant is 6", anything above 12 can be considered major/severe. Good luck. Are we using KNYC as the measuring stick here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Are we using KNYC as the measuring stick here? Any station. The post said the NYC Metro Area, not specifically Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Any station. The post said the NYC Metro Area, not specifically Central Park. Ok, any station in the counties listed here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 If it were just KNYC, I might have taken the under. But I'd say there is virtual certainty that some of the western/northern counties see at least 3" at some point before winter closes up shop. But who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 If it were just KNYC, I might have taken the under. But I'd say there is virtual certainty that some of the western/northern counties see at least 3" at some point before winter closes up shop. But who knows...Some of us might see more than that in the next two days. Fairly good agreement between the NAM and Euro at this point on at least a low end advisory snowfall NW of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 If the 18z GFS is right. We could be in for some record breaking cold towards mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 If the 18z GFS is right. We could be in for some record breaking cold towards mid March. Wow, very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I for one have seen measurable snows every month since early November. Already at average and see no reason why snow wont be any different this March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 This is not 1888. since when does it have to be 1888 to snow in March? LOL at you calling other people in here weenies when you just dropped that comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Two of the top three KU storms in the last fifty years occurred in what Month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 If the 18z GFS is right. We could be in for some record breaking cold towards mid March. Yea that has about 0% chance of verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Yea that has about 0% chance of verifying. What makes you think that something like that is impossible? I don't think it will get that cold but there definitely will be some decent cold air with this setup upcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 RGEM starts NYC off as a mix tomorrow. Blecch. I'd rather just have the rain than have to deal with pellets mixed in with even colder rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 What makes you think that something like that is impossible? I don't think it will get that cold but there definitely will be some decent cold air with this setup upcoming. Because, firstly. -22C 850s (about -7F) will not yield the mid single digits in the middle of Manhattan, especially with a WNW wind. Maybe 10F at best. Secondly, its the 300+ hr GFS. Thirdly, the all-time record low for March in the park is 3F, set in 1872. The next closest appears to be 6F, set in 1888 on a couple occasions. We haven't even come close to an all-time record low for a month in many decades (a cursory glance says the last monthly min set was in 1945 in June, with a low of 44F). Therefore, I am saying that the chance of a low between 5-10F in mid March is essentially 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Blecch. I'd rather just have the rain than have to deal with pellets mixed in with even colder rain. There's a good chance we hear some ping ping as this starts but the sleet and any very wet flakes would be extremely short-lived. This is a RAIN event here along I-95 and the coast. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I am going to take the liberty that this is a banter thread and defend Snow88. Not sure how long you have been around, and he may love snow more than most of us, but his knowledge and analysis are in the top roughly 25% or so in this forum. The only bigger comeback than Snow88 going from a weenie to an educated amateur would have been if Amy Winehouse showed up at the grammys this year. Your tone is misplaced, and your forecast is bold. mkerwood, on 25 Feb 2013 - 14:56, said: lol...funniest post ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Blecch. I'd rather just have the rain than have to deal with pellets mixed in with even colder rain. Lets enjoy the cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I am going to take the liberty that this is a banter thread and defend Snow88. Not sure how long you have been around, and he may love snow more than most of us, but his knowledge and analysis are in the top roughly 25% or so in this forum. The only bigger comeback than Snow88 going from a weenie to an educated amateur would have been if Amy Winehouse showed up at the grammys this year. Your tone is misplaced, and your forecast is bold. mkerwood, on 25 Feb 2013 - 14:56, said: Thanks for the kinds words. I am still a weenie though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Lets enjoy the cold rain Rain is our arch enemy. Are you a traitor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 Major squall line ongoing down in Florida, happy my flight is tomorrow night and not today. In any event looks like we're still holding onto the cold pretty well in north Jersey. CAD signiature showing up on SPC meso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Helluva line of storms in Florida. This is their tornado season too. Lota big twisters in C-FLA have occurred in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 As we haven't been below 32 for a few days now, signs of spring starting to show up in Manhattan. Won't be long now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 As we haven't been below 32 for a few days now, signs of spring starting to show up in Manhattan. Won't be long now. Temperatures are forecast to drop as averages go up and I guarantee Manhattan will drop below freezing several more times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Temperatures are forecast to drop as averages go up and I guarantee Manhattan will drop below freezing several more times. wouldn't surprise me if they get down to 20 or teens before April 15 - this is not going to be an early spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Temperatures are forecast to drop as averages go up and I guarantee Manhattan will drop below freezing several more times. It's almost assured they will, but I doubt for any extended period of time. I'd say day time highs below 32F are unlikely after March 1st. That has only happened 7 times since 2000 (1.73% of the time) and 185 times since 1876 (out of a possible 4,247 occurrences, or 4.35% of the time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 As we haven't been below 32 for a few days now, signs of spring starting to show up in Manhattan. Won't be long now. Lol were about to enter a period of a strong -NAO, and -AO falling to potentially -3. A week from now it'll feel like mid winter...far cry from signs of spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 wouldn't surprise me if they get down to 20 or teens before April 15 - this is not going to be an early spring This nonsense needs to stop. Guess how many times KNYC has dropped below 20 in the month of April? ONCE. On April 1, 1923, when the high was 36 and the low was 12. Before March 31, perhaps. But even then you are talking about a relatively low probability. Out of all the possible samples of days in March since 1876 (4,247), the temp dropped below 20 only 283 times, or about 6.7% of the time (last time was 2007). Now if we restrict that to March 15 - March 30th, that narrows down to 85 occurrences out of 2329 possible, or 3.65% of the time. And THAT hasn't happened since 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Lol were about to enter a period of a strong -NAO, and -AO falling to potentially -3. A week from now it'll feel like mid winter...far cry from signs of spring. I'll believe it when we're within a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 This nonsense needs to stop. Guess how many times KNYC has dropped below 20 in the month of April? ONCE. On April 1, 1923, when the high was 36 and the low was 12. Before March 31, perhaps. But even then you are talking about a relatively low probability. Out of all the possible samples of days in March since 1876 (4,247), the temp dropped below 20 only 283 times, or about 6.7% of the time (last time was 2007). Now if we restrict that to March 15 - March 30th, that narrows down to 85 occurrences out of 2329 possible, or 3.65% of the time. And THAT hasn't happened since 1993. This sub forum covers a lot more than just New York City. It was in the low 20's here last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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