NEG NAO Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 going to be interesting to see which direction the MJO decides to take - does it make turn towards the COD or continue through phase 5 - the COD would be more favorable especially when you have a neg AO - Neg NAO and postive PNA - just need the blocking to be in a better position http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Good thing we got rid of all those threads if "threats." The combined thread is nice until/if we get a real threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 It doesnt fall. Its placed gently by Ullr the snow god, to ensure maximum coverage among the hills and shady spots at 400'. As I drove thru Dobbs Ferry yesterday on the Saw Mill I had to pull over due to the massive nose bleed I experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Feels like spring. I know I'm probably the minority, but I hope winter's over. 7-8" of snow during the "blizzard" was enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Feels like spring. I know I'm probably the minority, but I hope winter's over. 7-8" of snow during the "blizzard" was enough for me. ready for spring too...if it snows again that's fine but if we get an early spring even better. of course part of me wants to take a road trip to Oklahoma or Kansas tomorrow for the blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Unfortunately, we are probably far from it being over. These types of Marches can be quite annoying with penny and nickle events (less than dime and nickle....morning dustings, an inch overnight, etc) and persistent low level cold. ready for spring too...if it snows again that's fine but if we get an early spring even better. of course part of me wants to take a road trip to Oklahoma or Kansas tomorrow for the blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
listarz Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 For me, this has been an exceptional winter. Couple of 2-3 " snowfalls that remained on the ground for days due to arctic cold that followed. The blizzard dropped 2 feet of which I still have a bit of snow cover from. I really can't complain. I feel for the rest of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Don't expect any big time warmth with this pattern, more springlike temps are gonna gave to wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Nice and toasty on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Don't expect any big time warmth with this pattern, more springlike temps are gonna gave to wait Maybe not a sustained warmup but 8 of the last 10 March's have had at least one 70 degree day...even years like 2007 where we saw a low of 12 and of course the st patricks day sleetstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Nice and toasty on the NAM Meh. It had 60's at 12z and back off. Looks like 40's and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 For me, this has been an exceptional winter. Couple of 2-3 " snowfalls that remained on the ground for days due to arctic cold that followed. The blizzard dropped 2 feet of which I still have a bit of snow cover from. I really can't complain. I feel for the rest of you. You can't really say it's been an exceptional winter...most of Long Island has had 30-35" of snow which is near average...an exceptional winter like 04-05 had nearly 90" in some spots out there. Temperatures have been well above normal unless you count November, which makes them near normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 You can't really say it's been an exceptional winter...most of Long Island has had 30-35" of snow which is near average...an exceptional winter like 04-05 had nearly 90" in some spots out there. Temperatures have been well above normal unless you count November, which makes them near normal. As I said before, if you take away the snowstorm two weeks ago (which obviously you can't do), then this winter is the one week cold snap in January, which was nothing historic and a post-Sandy snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Maybe not a sustained warmup but 8 of the last 10 March's have had at least one 70 degree day...even years like 2007 where we saw a low of 12 and of course the st patricks day sleetstorm Well I wouldn't rule out a warmer period toward the end but that ultimately will depend on the blocking pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Warmer weather will get here once the blocking breaks down . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Feels like spring. I know I'm probably the minority, but I hope winter's over. 7-8" of snow during the "blizzard" was enough for me. I at least want to get to average snowfall before thinking about wanting spring. Only 17.6'' at Rutgers for the season, with just 12'' occurring during meteorological winter, and 3.5F above normal so far in DJF. Pretty disappointing but not terrible like last winter. Hopefully we cash in on something in March because if not I'm probably only giving this winter a C- overall. Meteorological winter (DJF) is getting a D+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Al gore FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The GFS shows a storm but it looks to be offshore just like the GGEM and Euro. Good improvement though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 You can't really say it's been an exceptional winter...most of Long Island has had 30-35" of snow which is near average...an exceptional winter like 04-05 had nearly 90" in some spots out there. Temperatures have been well above normal unless you count November, which makes them near normal. Correcting your numbers, NWS Upton has received 43.0" and Islip has received 39.5" (which includes tonight's minor snowfall)...I'm sure certain areas have had even a bit more. Being this is only February 24th, when about 75% of the snow for the season has fallen on average...to have reached those figures denotes a good snow season in progress. Also, it has not been just one event in terms of the winter, though it does make up a large percentage of the season's snowfall. Including the snow that fell today, we have had 14 separate snowfalls of 0.1" or greater (counting the two snowfalls on 2/5/13 as two separate events). November temps were below normal, December above, January began well above but rallied late to be around just +2.0 DFN...and February is running below normal out here due to the extensive snow cover. Not an exceptional winter, but one that has made a nice turn around from a wretched start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 For the past two days, why have there been less and less posts in this sub-forum even if we are getting closer and closer to a period of a considerably improved pattern? Doesn't make sense at all, unless the lack of posts implies that the models have backed off on the favorable wintry parameters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 For the past two days, why have there been less and less posts in this sub-forum even if we are getting closer and closer to a period of a considerably improved pattern? Doesn't make sense at all, unless the lack of posts implies that the models have backed off on the favorable wintry parameters? The models still show a favorable pattern. Right now, the models are just showing cold and dry conditions. Maybe people are doing other things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The models still show a favorable pattern. Right now, the models are just showing cold and dry conditions. Maybe people are doing other things."Dry conditions."-Bingo! I think you nailed the rationale for that outlandish issue I just described here! I assume some posters here do not get all frisky and dandy when they do not see their daily high dosage of that nostalgic hue-laden dynamical output incoherently projected for any 6-hour period on one of the models, famously known as QPF. How perplexing, but not unprecedented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Tonight's 00z EURO has officially made me give up...We finally get a raging -NAO, +PNA, but the STJ dries up...Feel like banging my head on a wall really hard, oh wait I have been for the last 2 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingofQueens Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 What's worse is that this is only delaying spring. I love snow but hate the cold. I would take last year's March over the close but no cigar pattern the models are giving us right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 And the thing is the pattern looked so favorable even after the big snowstorm.... but some places have not seen any measurable snow since then with none in the forseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 There's no reason to give up right now, the full scale blocking pattern and pna have yet to develop, very premature throw in the towel thinking for most here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Tonight's 00z EURO has officially made me give up...We finally get a raging -NAO, +PNA, but the STJ dries up...Feel like banging my head on a wall really hard, oh wait I have been for the last 2 months. That's what happens when you get an unfavorable MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 That's what happens when you get an unfavorable MJO.The MJO is heading towards the COD - IF it enters the COD that is a very favorable phase for a snowstorm in NYC Metro - in fact if you look at the archive section of this link I have found several HECS that occurred when the MJO was in the COD - Blizzard of 96 - Blizzard of Feb 83 - Presidents Day 1 (Feb 1979) and Presidents Day 2.(Feb 2003)There may be more haven't looked...........http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The QPF on the NAEFS hardly burps after Thursday for NYC as temps. look to be 25-40. Know anyone in Miami?, seems like THK drops to 530dm there on Mar. 3. Maybe highs only in the 50's there for several days. 850's are predicted to be 2S.D. below normal for a few days too. Pattern looks too good in some respects. I also noticed that monthly analogs have trended toward lower temps. for March and hints at a lower for April also over last 2 weeks. Temps. still rage in May, June, July, Aug, Sept. in almost the whole country, with the 500mbs. going wild, especially in SE Canada. By the way, can anyone explain why the SST anomaly near New England and NE US has been above normal for so long? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Bump, for those who might be lost... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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