TUweathermanDD Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Well, then there's the fact that the difference between .06 and .09 is so small that it doesn't really matter anyways. It's not like we're talking about .64 vs .12 Its also the euro which is a global, and the fact that it has .09 for the 4th threat is good as these are mainly small scale events. To be honest, we've done decently well with some places overperforming and such. I feel as though all of them will trend wetter, especially the threat involving SS interaction for moisture advection/transport northward into the "low" or vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Five inches new 7 degrees here in hillsboro, expecting at least several new inches tjis weekend should be great skiing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 yayyyyyyyyy!!!! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_024_sim_radar.gif <pathetic, so don't get me wrong> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 yayyyyyyyyy!!!! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_024_sim_radar.gif <pathetic, so don't get me wrong> I'll take it brotha. A heavy band will drop .5" in no time as evidenced by this AM. That one not as heavy, but hey. I just want .3 tomorrow and .7 Sunday to make an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 I am on Lake Shore Drive in McHenry MD. A rented house for my cousin's birthday. Expecting 6-10 inches tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 yayyyyyyyyy!!!! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_024_sim_radar.gif <pathetic, so don't get me wrong> HI-RES NAM looks similar -- http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=sim_reflectivity&cycle=00ℑ=nam-hires%2F00%2Fnam-hires_namer_024_sim_reflectivity.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Tomorrows vort not as good as this mornings . No big totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Tomorrows vort not as good as this mornings . No big totals But the NAM looks decent at 84hrs for that event. Maybe we can swing for the fences and have someone in the area get another 1 to 2 inches. It will probably be less than that but we can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 But the NAM looks decent at 84hrs for that event. Maybe we can swing for the fences and have someone in the area get another 1 to 2 inches. It will probably be less than that but we can hope. Yeah it does. We gotta cash in once. Though I guess you did this morning. What's the record for clippers in a winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 But the NAM looks decent at 84hrs for that event. Maybe we can swing for the fences and have someone in the area get another 1 to 2 inches. It will probably be less than that but we can hope. Judging by the HiRes NAM, since its been performing well as of late, I'd say tomorrow could have 3-4 hours of snow really 1-2 hours of accumulating stuff, .5-1" tops. For sunday, shows some snow bands, so I could see some squally bands like Wes talked about coming in that drops down a couple quick rounds of coatings. Additionally, the 3rd threat for 2/5 looks good with the vort, with downstream threat 4 on NAM looking healthy. I think the Eastern shore if anyone could exceed an inch tomorrow night with some enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Yeah it does. We gotta cash in once. Though I guess you did this morning. What's the record for clippers in a winter? I don't know but this is as clippy as I can remember it but I'm almost 65 so my memory is not all that sharp anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 The 00Z GFS continues to be more bullish than the NAM regarding the system tomorrow evening/night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 next clipper may have a bit of a southern connection http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_063_700_rh_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 next clipper may have a bit of a southern connection http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_063_700_rh_ht.gif Definitely not buying the GFS petering out over us, but looks good initially and I'll take it at this range. Gets southern moisture injection, so I like. NAM was nice. Vort looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 The 00Z GFS continues to be more bullish than the NAM regarding the system tomorrow evening/night. looks pretty good on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Ugh, Mon Night looks disappointing on the GFS. Large area of .1-.25 QPF gets eaten by the mts after 72 looks promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 looks pretty good on radar Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Ugh, Mon Night looks disappointing on the GFS. Large area of .1-.25 QPF gets eaten by the mts after 72 looks promising I'll take it at this stage. H5 and H7 look good overall, these systems are better for the higher resolution models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Definitely not buying the GFS petering out over us, but looks good initially and I'll take it at this range. Gets southern moisture injection, so I like. NAM was nice. Vort looks good. otoh, hard not to believe it won't do the same things the rest of the clippers have done if that's what the GFS is ultimately showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 otoh, hard not to believe it won't do the same things the rest of the clippers have done if that's what the GFS is ultimately showing Well, the clippers haven't busted by any means I'd say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Gfs has mild surprise written all over it. Just maybe someone inside of a beltway somewhere gets more than 2 inches in under 6 hours. Is it really this dang hard nowadays? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Ugh, Mon Night looks disappointing on the GFS. Large area of .1-.25 QPF gets eaten by the mts after 72 looks promising talk about a kick in the nuts 24 hrs total qpf http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_087_precip_p24.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Gfs has mild surprise written all over it. Just maybe someone inside of a beltway somewhere gets more than 2 inches in under 6 hours. Is it really this dang hard nowadays? For tomorrow night? talk about a kick in the nuts 24 hrs total qpf http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_087_precip_p24.gif I don't fookin believe that will happen for one iota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 For tomorrow night? Hard to pin down. Lots of little things zipping along. But all seem to be aimed at us in some form or another. I'll be stoked if the rap starts spitting out some surface reflection with any one of them. I want Rockville to be dover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Hard to pin down. Lots of little things zipping along. But all seem to be aimed at us in some form or another. I'll be stoked if the rap starts spitting out some surface reflection with any one of them. I want Rockville to be dover. Looking at the radar, I think the RAP when it gets in range could deliver for you (on a smaller scale). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Hard to pin down. Lots of little things zipping along. But all seem to be aimed at us in some form or another. I'll be stoked if the rap starts spitting out some surface reflection with any one of them. I want Rockville to be dover. I know they did well this morning; what did they get officially if you know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 I know they did well this morning; what did they get officially if you know? 5.9 inches mitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Looking at the radar, I think the RAP when it gets in rane could deliver for you (on a smaller scale). Probably asking too much but what I would really like to see is a widespread 2 plus with one of these. It would make things a little more right all things considered. Pattern has the ingredients for sure bit the timing has to go just right. 4 chances to do it. If all 4 fail then we just plain suck at snow beyond repair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 5.9 inches mitch. ughh....you've got to be fookin' kidding me I know, you're not when I saw the radar around 6AM I thought they would get clocked but more like 2-3" not almost 6" this winter really sux now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Looking at the radar, I think the RAP when it gets in range could deliver for you (on a smaller scale). honestly.. radar right now means almost nothing or fully nothing for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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