stormtracker Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 bust I haven't changed my avatar for more than 3 days since 2001. I'm keeping this until we get 3+" of snow. Looks like Debbie downer for another year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I haven't changed my avatar for more than 3 days since 2001. I'm keeping this until we get 3+" of snow. Looks like Debbie downer for another year. If you go by DCA measurement you might need to keep it through 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vern Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Looks like one of our more robust events... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 IAD 0.6 The GFS for the Tracker clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Sigh. Well, that would pretty much equal my total from this morning's clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 no...that's from today..if it holds puts IAD at 4.6" on the season...not much higher than you Ok, the GFS does give us something with the Tracker clipper. I haven't looked at boundary layer temps but suspect they could be a problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 bust i'm incorporating a new rule...car toppers aren't allowed to bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Ok, the GFS does give us something with the Tracker clipper. I haven't looked at boundary layer temps but suspect they could be a problem Wes, I keep seeing some sort of Norlun feature that comes and goes on the modeling, particularly the euro/nam/sref, over NJ. As much as I'd like to believe this will set up over me (more likely north of me, lol), do you feel this is something that is possible? The nature of the trough and cyclonic vorticity makes me think it's a possibility, but I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Wes, I keep seeing some sort of Norlun feature that comes and goes on the modeling, particularly the euro/nam/sref, over NJ. As much as I'd like to believe this will set up over me (more likely north of me, lol), do you feel this is something that is possible? The nature of the trough and cyclonic vorticity makes me think it's a possibility, but I'm not sure. I've never had much luck with Norlun features. The strength of the the vort digging southward and taking on a nagative tilt is somewhat a cause for concern. The low goes out with one of the early weaker vorts so the strong one doesn't have much to work with. However, it has a negative tilt, is strong and may try. It should at least produce show showers. If it does get an inverted trough to work with then you could have a norlun feature but forecasting one to produce over the mid atl is beyond by ability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Wes, I keep seeing some sort of Norlun feature that comes and goes on the modeling, particularly the euro/nam/sref, over NJ. As much as I'd like to believe this will set up over me (more likely north of me, lol), do you feel this is something that is possible? The nature of the trough and cyclonic vorticity makes me think it's a possibility, but I'm not sure.Funny you say HM, I've seen the norlun on the models for the past few days, and the vorticity orientation helps you guys in comparison to those in NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 we never get norluned here....if so that is almost certainly a Lancaster-Philly-Trenton event Yeah it is a rare thing even up here and I agree that your area has pretty much <10% chance for one here. I was wondering what his thoughts were for NJ (yes I was being a weenie). I've never had much luck with Norlun features. The strength of the the vort digging southward and taking on a nagative tilt is somewhat a cause for concern. The low goes out with one of the early weaker vorts so the strong one doesn't have much to work with. However, it has a negative tilt, is strong and may try. It should at least produce show showers. If it does get an inverted trough to work with then you could have a norlun feature but forecasting one is beyond to produce over the mid atl is beyond by ability. Thanks for the response and it makes sense. If it is something that is going to happen, we'll see it trend that way on Saturday's runs. I have had a few occur in my lifetime but they were from more organized vort maxes / lows offshore with a clear inverted trough. This one coming up is close but not classic, even if based on a small sample size. Funny you say HM, I've seen the norlun on the models for the past few days, and the vorticity orientation helps you guys in comparison to those in NE. It definitely would be something that NE can benefit from but every so often the modeling tries to start it up down my way (NJ-NYC). We'll see...I give it a 30% chance for N-C NJ / NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 yeah...you had the one a few years ago that dumped a foot over Lancaster Was a nice cartopper here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 The good news is tomorrow's clipper does not appear to have boundary layer problems so if we get the GFS QPF, we'll see snow. I think we may actually have a better chance with the stronger vort giving us snow showers on Sunday though with the strong northwesterly winds, it still would at most be a car topper for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steinweather Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 We have about 3 inches here in Milford, DE. Stopped for 20 mintes and then an all out white out for last 20 minutes with the last band moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Didn't we just have a norlun around here in the fall early winter? Maybe i'm mistaken but i thought for sure we had some deal with stuff going East to West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 What is the euro doing with the clipper saturday night/Sunday morning. Any QPF? Leesburg, I don't recall having a norlun (inverted) surface trough that focussed convergence. I remember stuff moving from east to west because of a closed upper low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 plow trucks have now had 3 plowable events from 3". Here comes yet another street coater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 What is the euro doing with the clipper saturday night/Sunday morning. Any QPF? Leesburg, I don't recall having a norlun (inverted) surface trough that focussed convergence. I remember stuff moving from east to west because of a closed upper low. Verbatim at DCA: Sat/Sun: .01 Sun/Mon: .02 Tues: .06 Wedn: .09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 thanks, yeah...but there is more to the north and west with that system and the precip maxes are higher elsewhere with the subsequent 2, particularly the 4th threat Text output at GAI in Gaithersburg: Sat/Sun: 0.0" Sun/Mon: .03" over three 6 hour windows instead of two at DCA Tues: .08" Wedn: .08" FDK Sat/Sun: .01" Sun/Mon: .03" Tues: .06" Wedn: .07" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Thanks. Maybe my output was too bullish. Some of these are higher in the north snd east. Such as the 4th one. Well, then there's the fact that the difference between .06 and .09 is so small that it doesn't really matter anyways. It's not like we're talking about .64 vs .12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Well, then there's the fact that the difference between .06 and .09 is so small that it doesn't really matter anyways. It's not like we're talking about .64 vs .12 Its also the euro which is a global, and the fact that it has .09 for the 4th threat is good as these are mainly small scale events. To be honest, we've done decently well with some places overperforming and such. I feel as though all of them will trend wetter, especially the threat involving SS interaction for moisture advection/transport northward into the "low" or vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Five inches new 7 degrees here in hillsboro, expecting at least several new inches tjis weekend should be great skiing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 yayyyyyyyyy!!!! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_024_sim_radar.gif <pathetic, so don't get me wrong> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 yayyyyyyyyy!!!! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_024_sim_radar.gif <pathetic, so don't get me wrong> I'll take it brotha. A heavy band will drop .5" in no time as evidenced by this AM. That one not as heavy, but hey. I just want .3 tomorrow and .7 Sunday to make an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 I am on Lake Shore Drive in McHenry MD. A rented house for my cousin's birthday. Expecting 6-10 inches tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 yayyyyyyyyy!!!! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_024_sim_radar.gif <pathetic, so don't get me wrong> HI-RES NAM looks similar -- http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=sim_reflectivity&cycle=00ℑ=nam-hires%2F00%2Fnam-hires_namer_024_sim_reflectivity.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Tomorrows vort not as good as this mornings . No big totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Tomorrows vort not as good as this mornings . No big totals But the NAM looks decent at 84hrs for that event. Maybe we can swing for the fences and have someone in the area get another 1 to 2 inches. It will probably be less than that but we can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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