stormtracker Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 bust I haven't changed my avatar for more than 3 days since 2001. I'm keeping this until we get 3+" of snow. Looks like Debbie downer for another year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I haven't changed my avatar for more than 3 days since 2001. I'm keeping this until we get 3+" of snow. Looks like Debbie downer for another year. If you go by DCA measurement you might need to keep it through 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vern Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Looks like one of our more robust events... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 IAD 0.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 IAD 0.6 The GFS for the Tracker clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 The GFS for the Tracker clipper? no...that's from today..if it holds puts IAD at 4.6" on the season...not much higher than you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Sigh. Well, that would pretty much equal my total from this morning's clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 no...that's from today..if it holds puts IAD at 4.6" on the season...not much higher than you Ok, the GFS does give us something with the Tracker clipper. I haven't looked at boundary layer temps but suspect they could be a problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 bust i'm incorporating a new rule...car toppers aren't allowed to bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Ok, the GFS does give us something with the Tracker clipper. I haven't looked at boundary layer temps but suspect they could be a problem we get GFS'ed tomorrow evening and sunday afternoon....not sure about temps..maybe another cartopper....DCA can 0.1" themselves up to 1.5" on the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Ok, the GFS does give us something with the Tracker clipper. I haven't looked at boundary layer temps but suspect they could be a problem Wes, I keep seeing some sort of Norlun feature that comes and goes on the modeling, particularly the euro/nam/sref, over NJ. As much as I'd like to believe this will set up over me (more likely north of me, lol), do you feel this is something that is possible? The nature of the trough and cyclonic vorticity makes me think it's a possibility, but I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Wes, I keep seeing some sort of Norlun feature that comes and goes on the modeling, particularly the euro/nam/sref, over NJ. As much as I'd like to believe this will set up over me (more likely north of me, lol), do you feel this is something that is possible? The nature of the trough and cyclonic vorticity makes me think it's a possibility, but I'm not sure. we never get norluned here....if so that is almost certainly a Lancaster-Philly-Trenton event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Wes, I keep seeing some sort of Norlun feature that comes and goes on the modeling, particularly the euro/nam/sref, over NJ. As much as I'd like to believe this will set up over me (more likely north of me, lol), do you feel this is something that is possible? The nature of the trough and cyclonic vorticity makes me think it's a possibility, but I'm not sure. I've never had much luck with Norlun features. The strength of the the vort digging southward and taking on a nagative tilt is somewhat a cause for concern. The low goes out with one of the early weaker vorts so the strong one doesn't have much to work with. However, it has a negative tilt, is strong and may try. It should at least produce show showers. If it does get an inverted trough to work with then you could have a norlun feature but forecasting one to produce over the mid atl is beyond by ability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Wes, I keep seeing some sort of Norlun feature that comes and goes on the modeling, particularly the euro/nam/sref, over NJ. As much as I'd like to believe this will set up over me (more likely north of me, lol), do you feel this is something that is possible? The nature of the trough and cyclonic vorticity makes me think it's a possibility, but I'm not sure.Funny you say HM, I've seen the norlun on the models for the past few days, and the vorticity orientation helps you guys in comparison to those in NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 we never get norluned here....if so that is almost certainly a Lancaster-Philly-Trenton event Yeah it is a rare thing even up here and I agree that your area has pretty much <10% chance for one here. I was wondering what his thoughts were for NJ (yes I was being a weenie). I've never had much luck with Norlun features. The strength of the the vort digging southward and taking on a nagative tilt is somewhat a cause for concern. The low goes out with one of the early weaker vorts so the strong one doesn't have much to work with. However, it has a negative tilt, is strong and may try. It should at least produce show showers. If it does get an inverted trough to work with then you could have a norlun feature but forecasting one is beyond to produce over the mid atl is beyond by ability. Thanks for the response and it makes sense. If it is something that is going to happen, we'll see it trend that way on Saturday's runs. I have had a few occur in my lifetime but they were from more organized vort maxes / lows offshore with a clear inverted trough. This one coming up is close but not classic, even if based on a small sample size. Funny you say HM, I've seen the norlun on the models for the past few days, and the vorticity orientation helps you guys in comparison to those in NE. It definitely would be something that NE can benefit from but every so often the modeling tries to start it up down my way (NJ-NYC). We'll see...I give it a 30% chance for N-C NJ / NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Yeah it is a rare thing even up here and I agree that your area has pretty much <10% chance for one here. I was wondering what his thoughts were for NJ (yes I was being a weenie). Thanks for the response and it makes sense. If it is something that is going to happen, we'll see it trend that way on Saturday's runs. I have had a few occur in my lifetime but they were from more organized vort maxes / lows offshore with a clear inverted trough. This one coming up is close but not classic, even if based on a small sample size. It definitely would be something that NE can benefit from but every so often the modeling tries to start it up down my way (NJ-NYC). We'll see...I give it a 30% chance for N-C NJ / NYC. yeah...you had the one a few years ago that dumped a foot over Lancaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 yeah...you had the one a few years ago that dumped a foot over Lancaster Was a nice cartopper here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 The good news is tomorrow's clipper does not appear to have boundary layer problems so if we get the GFS QPF, we'll see snow. I think we may actually have a better chance with the stronger vort giving us snow showers on Sunday though with the strong northwesterly winds, it still would at most be a car topper for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steinweather Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 We have about 3 inches here in Milford, DE. Stopped for 20 mintes and then an all out white out for last 20 minutes with the last band moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Didn't we just have a norlun around here in the fall early winter? Maybe i'm mistaken but i thought for sure we had some deal with stuff going East to West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 What is the euro doing with the clipper saturday night/Sunday morning. Any QPF? Leesburg, I don't recall having a norlun (inverted) surface trough that focussed convergence. I remember stuff moving from east to west because of a closed upper low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 plow trucks have now had 3 plowable events from 3". Here comes yet another street coater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 What is the euro doing with the clipper saturday night/Sunday morning. Any QPF? Leesburg, I don't recall having a norlun (inverted) surface trough that focussed convergence. I remember stuff moving from east to west because of a closed upper low. <0.05" if any...there is more promise Sunday afternoon evening when we get 0.05 - 0.10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 What is the euro doing with the clipper saturday night/Sunday morning. Any QPF? Leesburg, I don't recall having a norlun (inverted) surface trough that focussed convergence. I remember stuff moving from east to west because of a closed upper low. Verbatim at DCA: Sat/Sun: .01 Sun/Mon: .02 Tues: .06 Wedn: .09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Verbatim at DCA: Sat/Sun: .01 Sun/Mon: .02 Tues: .06 Wedn: .09 thanks, yeah...but there is more to the north and west with that system and the precip maxes are higher elsewhere with the subsequent 2, particularly the 4th threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 thanks, yeah...but there is more to the north and west with that system and the precip maxes are higher elsewhere with the subsequent 2, particularly the 4th threat Text output at GAI in Gaithersburg: Sat/Sun: 0.0" Sun/Mon: .03" over three 6 hour windows instead of two at DCA Tues: .08" Wedn: .08" FDK Sat/Sun: .01" Sun/Mon: .03" Tues: .06" Wedn: .07" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Text output at GAI in Gaithersburg: Sat/Sun: 0.0" Sun/Mon: .03" over three 6 hour windows instead of two at DCA Tues: .08" Wedn: .08" FDK Sat/Sun: .01" Sun/Mon: .03" Tues: .06" Wedn: .07" Thanks. Maybe my output was too bullish. Some of these are higher in the north snd east. Such as the 4th one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Thanks. Maybe my output was too bullish. Some of these are higher in the north snd east. Such as the 4th one. Well, then there's the fact that the difference between .06 and .09 is so small that it doesn't really matter anyways. It's not like we're talking about .64 vs .12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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