ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I got 6.5" on Nov 7, 6.7" on Dec 27, and 9.4" on 12/29....have had some good storms here and had snow cover for the most part since 12/25. Still, the recent period has just been mostly cold (exception to the 1 day torch we just had) with weenie snows. It would be nice to get a larger systmem in here. Running right near climo for snowfall here, maybe an inch or two below at this second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 What would you say you're at, 30"? Close or just over, I need to add em' up again an update the snow thread. We're definitely on track for climo here, just nickel and diming our way to an average winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 How spoiled we were on the whole since 2000....most spots in New England saw 2000-2001 to 2010-2011 be one of the snowiest 10 year periods on record. There were like HECS and MECS almost yearly for someone in NE, sometimes several in a season. I know BTVs average was like 2 feet above its long term during that 10 year stretch and half of the top 10 snowstorms since 1880 fell since 2000. That can't sustain itself. We are regressing to the mean. Yeah we averaged about 78" per year during that 11 winter stretch....76.5" between 1992-1993 and 2010-2011...19 winters. We still have "catching up" to do to get back to climo. Even with last year's dead ratter, we are just under 75" for the 20 year average here which is still like 6" above climo. Hopefully we keep defying the odds though. Every time we've gotten a bad winter or two recently, we followed it up with a string of good or great winters to more than offset it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larvay Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 my ten year mean is not above average, however as far as the number of big snowstorms i have to agree. Even storms not so big that blew up out of nowhere etc. i was thinking recently that this is part of paying back climo. even in this snowhole where i now reside there have been at least six events well over a foot, a few more right around it and quite a few over 8 inches,etc climo here for a double digit snowstorm is really one every three to four seasons paying back climo is a b**ch the mean is solidly average though at about 46 inches for this area, and if my suspicions of that average (45 to 50 inches) is ever proven wrong for this little snowhole area and actually is closer to 40 inches which is what i feel it is then we would be above average. I can't supply any data as to yearly averages, but when I moved to Northampton in '73 I quickly learned that any storm of 6+ with little or no taint was a major win. 2/78 (15-16") might have been our first legit 1-ft. storm in those first five seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 At least it still looks like winter here. NW MA has done about as well this winter as anywhere in NE outside of the high peaks. CAM00644.jpg That's only about 1" of snow, doesn't count. Has to be >4" didn't you get the memo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 12.5" on the season. My seasonal grade is now at a D+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I mentioned for about a week that the time near 2/10 may be ugly. However, the models still build back the ridge near AK. So, I don't think it's cancelled...I even said that yesterday. The coveted euro ensemble is alone in torching the 11-15 day. I'm not completely sold on that at all right now for a few reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Nice snow shower/squall I went through in Union, put a small coating down. Winter is back, for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 How spoiled we were on the whole since 2000....most spots in New England saw 2000-2001 to 2010-2011 be one of the snowiest 10 year periods on record. There were like HECS and MECS almost yearly for someone in NE, sometimes several in a season. I know BTVs average was like 2 feet above its long term during that 10 year stretch and half of the top 10 snowstorms since 1880 fell since 2000. That can't sustain itself. We are regressing to the mean. That 11-yr stretch has been very good to my foothills location for large events; Farmington had 9 storms of 18"+ during that period, after recording 22 such events between 1893 and 1999-2000. However, their avg snowfall for those years is 94.1", compared to their long-term avg of 89.8", and by adding the year before and the year after, one sees a 13-yr run almost dead on the LT (0.1" shy, but close enough.) For a real 11-yr run, try 68-69 thru 78-79, which averaged 112.2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Some climo for the first two months of met winter (snow numbers include Oct and Nov)... ---HIGH TEMP--- ---LOW TEMP--- -MEAN TEMP- ---DAYS WITH TEMPS--- ---PRECIP--- --SNOWFALL-- ID AVG MAX DEP AVG MIN DEP AVG DEP HI<=32 HI>=50 LO<20 TOTAL %NORM TOTAL %NORM --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ALB 37.1 56 +3.9 21.8 - 5 +3.9 29.4 +3.9 18 7 20 5.51 100% 19.6 57% BDL 39.9 61 +2.8 24.1 0 +3.5 32.0 +3.1 14 10 16 6.30 94% 21.7 100% BDR 42.8 60 +3.1 29.6 8 +3.9 36.2 +3.5 8 14 7 6.32 98% 20.9 147% BOS 41.5 61 +3.0 28.4 4 +3.2 35.0 +3.1 13 13 9 7.06 99% 8.8 38% BTV 34.0 57 +3.8 18.6 -12 +4.3 26.3 +4.1 24 5 33 4.41 99% 49.1 111% CAR 25.7 53 +2.8 7.5 -21 +1.9 16.6 +2.4 43 3 46 5.46 91% 43.2 71% CON 36.1 58 +2.6 17.5 - 6 +3.7 26.8 +3.1 20 7 34 5.79 98% 23.0 65% EWR 45.0 66 +3.8 31.6 11 +4.5 38.3 +4.2 5 20 6 7.55 103% 9.9 72% ISP 44.2 61 +3.7 29.5 5 +3.7 36.8 +3.7 8 15 7 8.37 109% 8.1 64% JFK 44.6 62 +3.0 32.3 12 +3.4 38.4 +3.2 5 15 6 7.33 112% 5.8 52% LGA 44.6 61 +2.8 34.0 12 +4.7 39.3 +3.7 6 18 5 6.94 103% 3.0 23% NYC 43.6 62 +2.9 33.0 11 +3.5 38.3 +3.3 7 16 6 7.56 99% 6.6 55% ORH 37.1 59 +3.3 23.8 - 2 +4.1 30.5 +3.7 21 10 15 7.06 97% 33.6 98% PVD 42.6 62 +2.7 27.1 4 +3.5 34.9 +3.1 10 14 11 7.48 93% 17.1 89% PWM 37.1 59 +2.8 20.3 - 4 +3.4 28.7 +3.2 20 7 29 9.66 131% 35.0 102% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 What a total nickle dime winter for western SNE. ALB is obviously in NYS, but it's just outside and has been basically representative of the western interior this season... Since the temperatures flipped to winterlike on December 21, Albany, NY has reported a trace or more of snow on 29 out of 41 days! That's Rochester-esque. But despite this high snow frequency, the January total was 6.2" and the seasonal total is 19.6", roughly 55% of normal to date. And two thirds of Alb's seasonal snow came in a 4 day stretch right after Christmas. That's lots and lots of futility outside of a couple of good days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Light snow falling for a few minutes. Enough to get me out to run around the yard naked for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Some climo for the first two months of met winter (snow numbers include Oct and Nov)... Does "%norm" next to snowfall mean the percentage of snowfall above or below average with respect to that specific 2 month time period historical average? Meaning Albany is 57% above normal for this time of year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Does "%norm" next to snowfall mean the percentage of snowfall above or below average with respect to that specific 2 month time period historical average? Meaning Albany is 57% above normal for this time of year? 100% is normal. ALB is 57% of normal, so below normal. 50% would be half of normal, and 200% would be double normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Does "%norm" next to snowfall mean the percentage of snowfall above or below average with respect to that specific 2 month time period historical average? Meaning Albany is 57% above normal for this time of year? %normal snowfall is the total snowfall since July 1st divided by the normal (30-year climate normals 1981-2010) snowfall total since July 1st. I didn't want to exclude the November snow or any of the NNE sites that may have had measureable in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 100% is normal. ALB is 57% of normal, so below normal. 50% would be half of normal, and 200% would be double normal. Makes sense and is tune with the SUCKISH winter many are having. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 January departures. BOS +2.5 BDL +2.5 PVD +2.1 ORH +2.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Is the measure or success of a winter based solely on snowfall? If so, is it based on the percent of normal for the season or through a certain date? I guess I don't understand folks complaining about a winter on 2/1 and then basing that complaint on the lack of being average which is a mix of good and bad. I'm with PF & others that we have been spoiled in the past 20 years and a couple of winters aren't going to turn me off. I lived through the 1970s and 80s when things weren't that great all the time. One thing I do know is that things run in cycles and the law of averages has to even out. That's why I'm looking forward to the next couple of months. We're due for a great Feb/Mar storm. If not this year, maybe next year but it will come. Complain all you want, it's not going to change the weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Is the measure or success of a winter based solely on snowfall? If so, is it based on the percent of normal for the season or through a certain date? I guess I don't understand folks complaining about a winter on 2/1 and then basing that complaint on the lack of being average which is a mix of good and bad. I'm with PF & others that we have been spoiled in the past 20 years and a couple of winters aren't going to turn me off. I lived through the 1970s and 80s when things weren't that great all the time. One thing I do know is that things run in cycles and the law of averages has to even out. That's why I'm looking forward to the next couple of months. We're due for a great Feb/Mar storm. If not this year, maybe next year but it will come. Complain all you want, it's not going to change the weather! I tend to measure the winter on a variety of parameters, but my most important is definitely snowfall. I think that is easily #1 for the majority of posters here. I do factor in temps, snow pack retention, snow pack depth, and the manner of snowfall (i.e. nickle and dime vs large KU) as well. This winter has been probably about a C or C- for me thus far. Average snowfall, cruddy temps...but offset somewhat by the lengthy well below average period we just had which froze most lakes/ponds solid. We had a pretty nice coastal on 12/29. The rest has been a bit nickel and dimish....Nov 6-7 not withstanding as well. We did have a very lengthy period of snow pack, but it wasn't that deep except for about a week following 12/29. February into early March will undoubtedly decide whether this winter goes down as decent or ends up as a dead ratter. As for your other comments, it is a natural reaction to compare the current to the very recent past. The very recent past has been very kind of snowfall on the whole. Also, when you have a generally snowy period for a few years, as time passes, we tend to forget about the torch periods and the cutters and remember the snowy times. I've often found myself doing this but then have to recall some ugly stretches even amidst good winters. On this board in the current, there has been a tendency recently to focus only on the negative parts....i.e "the torch is coming right after this storm" or "the cold shot won't be that impressive behind the storm" or "the snow is only going to stay on the ground for a week at most"....stuff like that. Its easy to focus on negatives when we just came off a dead ratter and for many folks here, this has been a dead ratter thus far too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 GEFS continue to go against the euro in a big way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I think kevin should host a frozen ground sled party. WE can crisco up all of our flexible flyers and cruise down Mt Tolland! Have a contest for longest run. Tough times, last year I started spring cleanups in early Feb on a hunch, looks like it might be just a bit later this year depending on who wins the long range battle, money coming in early is always awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I need to move north where they get snow.. maybe Halifax or the North Pole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I need to move north where they get snow.. maybe Halifax or the North Pole Don't move here then. I'm looking at green lawns as I type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Euro day7 is almost like dec 05. shows an awesome midget storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I can't supply any data as to yearly averages, but when I moved to Northampton in '73 I quickly learned that any storm of 6+ with little or no taint was a major win. 2/78 (15-16") might have been our first legit 1-ft. storm in those first five seasons. the 78 storms's relative lack of preformance from bdl to northampton really bothers me because all around were heavier totals and it was such a monster of a storm with a perfect set up etc...just goes to illustrate that even in the best of the best, without a ccb miracle this zone esp from spfd to noho (sometimes bdl is safe) will just always be a mins even in one in 100 to 200 year storms. i know how impressive etc but the accums while good were meh comparatively speaking and mostly in the waa part of the system. 1888 is the only real good exception and that set up meteorologically was different and the explanation outlined in the section on it in kocin/ucellini book in spfd the storms with well over a foot (15 inches or more) where i live were as follows since 2000 feb 5 2001 pres day 2003 jan 12 2011 storms at to just over a foot early march 2001 October 2011 a fair number of others in the 10-11 inch range ( a few being two part events) not sure about xmas 02, early dec 03 and blizz jan 05 as they could be in the just under foot category or could be legit at or just over, however the data around here for those storms has way too much varability and is thus inconclusive and i wasnt here personally for those events one anomoly was the march 07 storm where spfd had six inches of snow and about two inches of sleet while northampton got a solid 12 to 14 inches of snow before a little sleet at the end, the only storm though i am aware of where the sleet line stopped just north of holyoke and washed out for a few hours giving noho some sick rates of snow for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 I need to move north where they get snow.. maybe Halifax or the North Pole Don't move here then. I'm looking at green lawns as I type. my brother in law lives in Halifax, my wife wants to move up there, now not so sure. lol Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 10.8 here ( at home) and 18 two miles away at 500' in town. The hills are 5-8 degrees colder around here this morning it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 I received my seed catalog in the mail yesterday. I fear the lawn thread is right around the corner. Still lots of time for this to change, but I'm anticipating a below normal winter when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 2, 2013 Author Share Posted February 2, 2013 I am booking an August vacation now Sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Because I leave for work before sunrise and get home after dark I was unable to check out my woods after the storm. Cancel one cottonwood, at the bottom of the sliding hill. Grandkids ride their big wheels down the hill into the runoff too. Guess the chainsaw will be cranking. Cottonwood has to dry for 2 years before it becomes hand splittable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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