lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Don't worry, The 6z model runs along with High Res all slowed down the transition time to the coastal as well as travel the clipper about 20-30 miles more north. Last minute glitch! As you said the main show is the 6-8 hour deform band with possible banding that will be hitting us shortly. I still think Niagara and Orleans county get 10-15 inches, they are already at 3 I believe. Reports coming in from Hamilton of 8 inches already and Toronto 10 inches.i believe Buffalo northward will do well with this and from Tonawanda creek northward will do very well. For us in the southtowns, not so much. Maybe 6" if were lucky. No forecast got us even close to 39 degrees for gods sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 A couple flurries in tha air here in Southern Oswego County haha. I'm not expecting much from this storm, i might be wrong but just have that feeling it's gonna be a flop here. Local mets are saying 4-8 for most of Central Ny we shall see i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i believe Buffalo northward will do well with this and from Tonawanda creek northward will do very well. For us in the southtowns, not so much. Maybe 6" if were lucky. No forecast got us even close to 39 degrees for gods sake. Yeah down slope flow is really killing it in terms of temperatures. But that 20-30 mile shift did us in, we would of been getting what Niagara Falls is getting currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah down slope flow is really killing it in terms of temperatures. But that 20-30 mile shift did us in, we would of been getting what Niagara Falls is getting currently.for us this will be a dud no doubt. For those in Niagara and Orleans counties its gonna be a whole other world! Kinda want to go to my Aunts house in Lockport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah down slope flow is really killing it in terms of temperatures. But that 20-30 mile shift did us in, we would of been getting what Niagara Falls is getting currently. Orchard Park has always been in a precarious spot given the sharp nouth/south gradient in the lift/qpf fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 that yellow/orange area on the radar is bright banding right over the city. That's likely where the transition is located. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Orchard Park has always been in a precarious spot given the sharp nouth/south gradient in the lift/qpf fields.yep and the downsloping to 39 degrees in the nail in the koffin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 that yellow/orange area on the radar is bright banding right over the city. That's likely where the transition is located. Giant flakes drifting down spaced about 10 feet apart here...no accumulation to speak of at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 that yellow/orange area on the radar is bright banding right over the city. That's likely where the transition is located. Orchard Park has always been in a precarious spot given the sharp nouth/south gradient in the lift/qpf fields. Quite a large shift north in that latest short range model don't ya think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 for us this will be a dud no doubt. For those in Niagara and Orleans counties its gonna be a whole other world! Kinda want to go to my Aunts house in Lockport. Meh...this side of the storm isn't worth a chase. However, Boston Mass would be totally worth it. Whatever falls today will be gone by Monday anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Quite a large shift north in that latest short range model don't ya think? RochesterDave was right about this one. Bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 RochesterDave was right about this one. Bust. How is this a bust? Wheatfield has 3.5 inches already, Niagara Falls 4 inches. This is far from a bust. Me and you were supposed to get 6 inches from this from nearly all models...Did you really expect more for us? Its going exactly as predicted...6-12 inches from Kbuf north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 How is this a bust? Wheatfield has 3.5 inches already, Niagara Falls 4 inches. This is far from a bust. Me and you were supposed to get 6 inches from this from nearly all models...Did you really expect more for us? Its going exactly as predicted...6-12 inches from Kbuf north.if i land up with 4-6 inches I will say its not a bust. Until then its a bust, at least for the southtowns. Its a bust to me when my forecasted high by the NWS is 33 with a chance of sleet mixing in and I wake up to 39 degrees and moderate rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Quite a large shift north in that latest short range model don't ya think? I dont use the HRRR. But we'll see I guess. I think we'll be fine. Rochester isn't getting 1 or 2" lol. Youngstown to north of Rochester will probably see 12"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 if i land up with 4-6 inches I will say its not a bust. Until then its a bust, at least for the southtowns. Its a bust to me when my forecasted high by the NWS is 33 with a chance of sleet mixing in and I wake up to 39 degrees and moderate rain. We will get 4-8 which was predicted all along...Going to be some impressive rates later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I dont use the HRRR. But we'll see I guess. I think we'll be fine. Rochester isn't getting 1 or 2" lol. Youngstown to north of Rochester will probably see 12"+. Yeah, quite the LOL in that one! Hopefully lake enhancement might be able to chip in a few more inches on the backside, what is your thinking on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah I got my gold subscription Icon!! WooHoo!! Your welcome American! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 We will get 4-8 which was predicted all along...Going to be some impressive rates later this afternoon.i hope your right and you probably will be but Im just saying its a busted forecast when you wake up to 39 and moderate rain which was never predicted whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Pretty good sized dendrites, moderate snow up here on the north side. Major surface streets got covered quick after 9AM. I measured about 1.5" a half hour ago, but it's accumulating at a decent rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Pretty good sized dendrites, moderate snow up here on the north side. Major surface streets got covered quick after 9AM. I measured about 1.5" a half hour ago, but it's accumulating at a decent rate.post some pics if you can! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 When was that storm when Rochester got clocked with close to two feet and Syracuse was more like 3 to 6? This is going back a ways but was a strong Appalachians runner. Buffalo probably picked up over a foot if Rochester was close to two but they also had lake enhancement. 8 to 10 years or more??? March 3,4 1999... The ROC got about 2 feet. Then another 18 inches on the 7th. Probably the highest 5 day snow total in ROC history. The first storm featured an unrelenting lake enhanced deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 occasional flakes mixing in with moderate rain in West Seneca now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 occasional flakes mixing in with moderate rain in West Seneca now. Moderate Snow in the ROC since the start. Minimal accumulation thus far though. Can't imagine how crappy it is to be getting rain, you'll change over soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Warning downgraded to Advisory for south of BUF. All rain here and 39.4!!!!! Cant believe what Im saying right now. On the bright side the skies are dark. Oxymoron? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Warning downgraded to Advisory for south of BUF. All rain here and 39.4!!!!! Cant believe what Im saying right now. On the bright side the skies are dark. Oxymoron? Lol makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 makes sensetotally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That downgrade was a bit shocking but certainly makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That downgrade was a bit shocking but certainly makes sense. I was wondering if the some of the valleys would hold onto ZR so they would maintain it. Looks like there was some freezing rain here for a bit...the ground was covered with soft ice when I woke up at 845am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Widespread 4-5" already in Niagara County. This will be a solid great event for them. Anyone wanna guess when Ill change over to snow here in OP? Ill guess 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Apologies for my supercrap photog skillz. This at least shows the accumulation on the streets. Side street was bare at 8AM. St. Mark's Church is about 1/8 mi away-- that's my "heavy snow" visibility landmark. Intensity has picked up in last 10 mins (since picture was taken), by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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