OSUmetstud Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 same with 15z SERF. About 12-15" for BUF and 15-20" for Niagara and Orleans counties. I told you want it to slow down and phase a bit earlier lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 BUF won't mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I told you want it to slow down and phase a bit earlier lol.you told BuffaloWeather that not me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 you told BuffaloWeather that not me lol. oh well either way...haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 18z nam keeps the theme of slowing things down...keeps good snow around here until about 03z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 18z nam keeps the theme of slowing things down...keeps good snow around here until about 03z.i do agree with scottmartin49 that the primary low does look to be heading a bit more E rather than NE. Couldnt this be significant because it would bring the heaviest snow southward more rather than over Niagara/Orleans conties and Lake Ontario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It seems to me that to get significant wrapound from these storms they either need to track inland further north (say, Binghamton to Boston) or cut the corner between NYC and Boston and head straight up the Maine coast. Otherwise, it's hard to get the backflow down the St.Lawrence. This one looks likely to pound itself out on the Berks, Greens, and lower Adirondacks as it heads out to sea. Boy do I remember how southern Vermont got hit in '78! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i'm very concerned that the western part of this duo is headed too far n and west. it looks like QPF and precip type could really reduce our snowfall totals here in KROC (rochester) and we are as far north as you can get. big bust potential with this thing. i don't even know why the southern tier has Winter Storm Warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looking good for some banding to develop across WNY as OSU pointed out earlier today from the GFS. Still looks on track for a few hours later tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i'm very concerned that the western part of this duo is headed too far n and west. it looks like QPF and precip type could really reduce our snowfall totals here in KROC (rochester) and we are as far north as you can get. big bust potential with this thing. i don't even know why the southern tier has Winter Storm Warnings. Why don't you post and learn here instead of that trashy blog Don Paul runs. You'll learn more in 1 day from the Mets here then you'll learn in years from that troll fest of a blog. You'll be fine in Roc, the low to the west will begin to pivot in the next few hours as the low begins to transfer to the coastal as well as the high pressure to the north supressing the northward progression. I still like 8-14 across most of Rochester which includes the possible lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 WRF-HRW http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/208/hrw.gif/'>WRF-NMM http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/809/nmm.gif/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 SREF pretty consistent on 8-12 for KBUF http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SREFPROBNE_3z/probsnwloop.html http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i've seen sooo many of these western lows follow the lake erie/ ontario plain and bring a mix in like quick fire. I'm not new to this. the western low is just tracking too far to the north att. see pressure falls (highest in ne over l. ontario). now the wrap around and les enhancement could boost totals re: the high res models. but i still see big bust potential. just saying- and backing up. wish i knew how to post thumbnail images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i've seen sooo many of these western lows follow the lake erie/ ontario plain and bring a mix in like quick fire. I'm not new to this. the western low is just tracking too far to the north att. see pressure falls (highest in ne over l. ontario). now the wrap around and les enhancement could boost totals re: the high res models. but i still see big bust potential. just saying- and backing up. wish i knew how to post thumbnail images. You are new to this, IE 53 posts in 2 years...Btw every storm synoptic/LES has bust potential. This is not the exception, so why post the obvious? You do realize we were never suppose to get the precipittaion that is going off to our northwest right? We are supposed to get the moisture that is currently over Michigan as it begins to pivot southeast all the while transfering to the coastal. Latest run of the Euro is consistent in giving WNY 8-12 inches of snow. I think its a pretty safe bet you'll get at least 8 inches in Kroc. We will see if that changes by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 From NCEP ...PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ALONG THE EASTERNSEABOARD......POWERFUL COASTAL LOW EVOLVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEWENGLAND COAST... PREFERENCE: SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERSION OF THE 12Z ECMWFCONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE LWR MS VLY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOWPRESSURE JUST INLAND THIS EVENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE WILLLIFT NEWD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRI. AMPLIFYING NRN STREAMHT FALLS DIGGING ACROSS THE LWR GRT LAKES AND UPR OH VLY REGIONWILL CAPTURE AND PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM ENERGY AND DRIVE A LOWCENTER THAT WILL BOMB OUT OFF THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC AND SRN NEWENGLAND COASTS LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT...WITH LOW PRESSURECROSSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ENEWD OUTTO SEA AND AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND LATER SAT THROUGH SUN. REGARDINGTHE MDL DETAILS...THE 12Z ECMWF AND ESP THE 00Z NAM CONTINUE TO BEWEST OF THE OVERALL MDL CONSENSUS...WITH THE 00Z GFS...00Z GEMGLOBAL AND THE 00Z UKMET A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. THE 00Z GFS ISCURRENTLY THE FARTHEST EAST OF ANY SOLN FOR THE DURATION OF THISEVENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MDL SUITE. THE 12Z ECENS MEANACTUALLY SUGGESTS A LOW TRACK JUST A TAD LEFT OF THE 12Z ECMWF.THE 18Z GEFS MEAN IS A TAD LEFT OF THE 00Z GFS TRACK. BASED ON ALLTHIS...HPC WILL FAVOR A SOLN STRONGLY TWD THE 12Z ECMWF WITHRESPECT TO LOW TRACK...BUT WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER SFC PRESSURES...ESPOFF NEW ENGLAND BY SAT. Here is what we came up with at the station for the storm we used a blend of NAM, EC and UK + SREFs to come up w/ these amounts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 SREF pretty consistent on 8-12 for KBUF http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SREFPROBNE_3z/probsnwloop.html http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/ My dog is calling for 4-6" metro buf,2-5" southtowns and 6-9" Niagara/Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 "Why are the animals always the first to know?"- H. Simpson Not looking good for us snow-wise on the map re: Low convergence/track- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 From NCEP ...PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ALONG THE EASTERNSEABOARD......POWERFUL COASTAL LOW EVOLVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEWENGLAND COAST... PREFERENCE: SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERSION OF THE 12Z ECMWFCONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE LWR MS VLY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOWPRESSURE JUST INLAND THIS EVENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE WILLLIFT NEWD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRI. AMPLIFYING NRN STREAMHT FALLS DIGGING ACROSS THE LWR GRT LAKES AND UPR OH VLY REGIONWILL CAPTURE AND PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM ENERGY AND DRIVE A LOWCENTER THAT WILL BOMB OUT OFF THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC AND SRN NEWENGLAND COASTS LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT...WITH LOW PRESSURECROSSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ENEWD OUTTO SEA AND AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND LATER SAT THROUGH SUN. REGARDINGTHE MDL DETAILS...THE 12Z ECMWF AND ESP THE 00Z NAM CONTINUE TO BEWEST OF THE OVERALL MDL CONSENSUS...WITH THE 00Z GFS...00Z GEMGLOBAL AND THE 00Z UKMET A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. THE 00Z GFS ISCURRENTLY THE FARTHEST EAST OF ANY SOLN FOR THE DURATION OF THISEVENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MDL SUITE. THE 12Z ECENS MEANACTUALLY SUGGESTS A LOW TRACK JUST A TAD LEFT OF THE 12Z ECMWF.THE 18Z GEFS MEAN IS A TAD LEFT OF THE 00Z GFS TRACK. BASED ON ALLTHIS...HPC WILL FAVOR A SOLN STRONGLY TWD THE 12Z ECMWF WITHRESPECT TO LOW TRACK...BUT WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER SFC PRESSURES...ESPOFF NEW ENGLAND BY SAT. Here is what we came up with at the station for the storm we used a blend of NAM, EC and UK + SREFs to come up w/ these amounts: Really good map Andy....IMO. ENY is such a challenge with just about every EC event. You serve the area out that way well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i've seen sooo many of these western lows follow the lake erie/ ontario plain and bring a mix in like quick fire. I'm not new to this. the western low is just tracking too far to the north att. see pressure falls (highest in ne over l. ontario). now the wrap around and les enhancement could boost totals re: the high res models. but i still see big bust potential. just saying- and backing up. wish i knew how to post thumbnail images. You bring up a good point Dave. The lake plain certainly seems to be an issue with most models with these type of situations (Dieing primary)...... Not so much because WNY was ever going to get much precip from the initial lift of moisture, but the ramifications of a warmer profile due to deeper LP penetration into the lake plain (vs. model progs), may surprise many (not all) out that way wrt pingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 You bring up a good point Dave. The lake plain certainly seems to be an issue with most models. Not so much because WNY was ever going to get much precip from the initial lift of moisture, but the ramifications of a warmer profile due to deeper LP penetration into the lake plain (vs. model progs), may surprise many (not all) out that way wrt pingers. I have my umbrella on standby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I have my umbrella on standby. LOL....probably not that far north....nor west...but more for some of those in the S. Tier and into the N/S valleys where warmer air (if indeed the LP does go a bit further north than modeled) would scour out colder, lower levels. Not a prediction, but something to look out for... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 BTW...note the radars over lower Michigan....certainly has the looks of lake enhancement...if not outright LES from the NE!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 'The Weather Channel' is getting ready to blame the models; http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter-storm-nemo-20130206 Their new slogan should be 'Going Postel on storm forecasts!' It seems like Niziol has been keeping a relatively low profile on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Badddd gut feeling here, never expected to wake up to 38.4 degrees!!!! Needless to say all rain here and its only 8:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Wasting a good amount of precious QPF here right now with this rain. Its amazing its 38.5 at my house and Buffalo just 13-15 miles away is 30 degrees and snowing. Lockport in Niagara County at 2" and counting as of an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 34 and plain rain lol. Whoops. In all seriousness now, this isn't really the main show anyway...showers ahead of the main area. We just need the main batch to sink a bit farther south and west and it will flip to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I have my umbrella on standby. Welcome to a REAL weather forum Ayudd. It is going to be a pleasure having you on here! =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 34 and plain rain lol. Whoops. In all seriousness now, this isn't really the main show anyway...showers ahead of the main area. We just need the main batch to sink a bit farther south and west and it will flip to snow.look at the difference just from WS to OP! Your sitting at 34 and im at 38.8! Im right on the edge if the Boston Hills though.Technically the northernmost beginning of the Boston Hills. Literally 5 miles to my south is 1200ft plus and a southerly wind is whipping right down the hill and cause significant adiabatic warming as is decends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 34 and plain rain lol. Whoops. In all seriousness now, this isn't really the main show anyway...showers ahead of the main area. We just need the main batch to sink a bit farther south and west and it will flip to snow. Don't worry, The 6z model runs along with High Res all slowed down the transition time to the coastal as well as travel the clipper about 20-30 miles more north. Last minute glitch! As you said the main show is the 6-8 hour deform band with possible banding that will be hitting us shortly. I still think Niagara and Orleans county get 10-15 inches, they are already at 3 I believe. Reports coming in from Hamilton of 8 inches already and Toronto 10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Snow showers breaking out in advance of the main snow shield is providing a nice little bonus. I measured an inch as of 8:30. The main area of snow appears to be as far east as Rochester already. With the 6Z GFS is still giving us about 0.75 LE I'm hoping for 6 - 10 from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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