Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Spring 2013

[OSUmetstud]

lol.

 

Well NAM beefed up QPF slightly for BUF....now 0.90".

 

That 1.25" line strattles the Lake Ontario shoreline.

[BuffaloWeather]

Latest Watch from BUF dropped totals back to the 6-11" range, more along the lines of what most around here seem to be thinking.  Must have been a rookie on the day shift....Here's how the shift transition probably went - 

 

 

2^nd shift veteran: Son, you’ve got a better chance of having Frosty the Snowman himself walk into this office with a dozen Anchor Bar wings than you do for that 9-18 inch forecast to work out.

 

1^st shift rookie: But sir, those Euro QPF outputs…

 

2^nd shift veteran:  To hell with that Euro trash!  This is Buffalo, son, synoptic systems produce around here about as good as the Bills. 

 

1^st shift rookie:  Yes sir, but that cold northeast flow off Lake Ontario looks….

 

2^nd shift veteran: F that little pond to our north!  Only lake around here that’s dumping 9-18 inches of snow is Lake Erie.  Now move over so I can issue this update…

 

That is some good **** right here. LOL!

[OSUmetstud]

I'm more impressed with lake enhancement than I was before...looks pretty good at least for areas close to LO.

 

the soundings on Friday evening/overnight in ROC area pretty impressive

[Buffalo Bumble]

i know.  We deal with weak deformation zones here almost exclusively.  We are too far from the atlantic and a lot of the inflow/moisture is rung out before it gets to the 700mb frontogentical region in our area.

 

00z NAM is pretty nice.  Congrats ART...wow. 

 

I was down in southeast PA during a big storm back in Jan 96. Rates in those deformation zones certainly rival what I've experienced in some intense lake effect bands.  Different feeling when the snow is ripping at 3"/hr with such high moisture content - literally stops you in your tracks.  

[BuffaloWeather]

6-11 inch totals now expected across WNY. Much more inline with models and qpf output

 

 

NOTE THAT THESE ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY
DOWNWARD FOR MANY AREAS FROM THE INITIAL WATCH ISSUANCE. GIVEN THE
RAPID TRANSFER OF ENERGY TO THE COAST SEEN IN LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE…EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE SHORT LIVED IN MOST
AREAS…ONLY LASTING FOR 4-6 HOURS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY
IN WESTERN NY…AND A LITTLE LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES. ALSO…THE AIRMAS IS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR
ANY MEANINGFUL LAKE ENHANCEMENT AT THE TAIL END…WITH LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ONLY AROUND 4K FEET OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

[LakeEffectKing]

Ummm...if 00z GFS verified...parts of C/N/W NY would do much better than parts of E. Mass, taking into account better ratios....and the Blizzard watch would NOT verify out that way....however a toaster advisory is now in effect....

[Stash]

Really wasn't expecting this much of a shift.  Cape Cod does very well out there however this run.  Where I am in ENY seems to be caught in-between.  Enough to shovel perhaps, but a very pedestrian event.

 

After looking at the 00z NAM's output for New England, the GFS must be an especially big blow to some out there.  Still a very nice storm for most of them however.

 

Ummm...if 00z GFS verified...parts of C/N/W NY would do much better than parts of E. Mass....and the Blizzard watch would NOT verify out that way....however a toaster advisory is now in effect....

[OSUmetstud]

6-11 inch totals now expected across WNY. Much more inline with models and qpf output

 

 

NOTE THAT THESE ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY

DOWNWARD FOR MANY AREAS FROM THE INITIAL WATCH ISSUANCE. GIVEN THE

RAPID TRANSFER OF ENERGY TO THE COAST SEEN IN LATEST MODEL

GUIDANCE…EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE SHORT LIVED IN MOST

AREAS…ONLY LASTING FOR 4-6 HOURS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY

IN WESTERN NY…AND A LITTLE LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS THE GENESEE

VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES. ALSO…THE AIRMAS IS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR

ANY MEANINGFUL LAKE ENHANCEMENT AT THE TAIL END…WITH LAKE INDUCED

EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ONLY AROUND 4K FEET OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

 

lol...it's not like anything changed from previous. 

[Syrmax]

Ummm...if 00z GFS verified...parts of C/N/W NY would do much better than parts of E. Mass, taking into account better ratios....and the Blizzard watch would NOT verify out that way....however a toaster advisory is now in effect....

Yeah 0Z GooFuS is doing just that. Fortunately, or not, the coastal is of less bearing on our fate. BGM's take on this seems about right. KBUF can also get back to discussing how mild pacific air will be flooding the continent soon enough. I see we may get AOA for a day or two next week. Sigh.

[heavy_wx]

Winter storm warnings up for areas north of Buffalo and along the Lake Ontario shoreline, as well as Onondaga, Madison and Oneida counties. 8-12" for the BGM counties, 6-12" for WNY, 8-12" for south of Lake Ontario and 10-18" for the counties east of Lake Ontario.

[heavy_wx]

The 00z GFS suggests the possibility of some heavier snow bands in WNY around 12z Friday, with pretty good 850 mb frontogenesis and some negative EPV.

 

 

The SUNY mm5 shows high reflectivity several hours later over the same areas of WNY.

 

 

The mm5 page doesn't have any 850 mb frontogenesis parameter but it does show some weak frontogenesis at 700 mb. It does look like some areas may get signficiant banded precipitation, but it is too early to tell exactly where.

[BuffaloWeather]

The 00z GFS suggests the possibility of some heavier snow bands in WNY around 12z Friday, with pretty good 850 mb frontogenesis and some negative EPV.

 

 

The SUNY mm5 shows high reflectivity several hours later over the same areas of WNY.

 

 

The mm5 page doesn't have any 850 mb frontogenesis parameter but it does show some weak frontogenesis at 700 mb. It does look like some areas may get signficiant banded precipitation, but it is too early to tell exactly where.

 

Awesome, looks good! Majority of SREF have KBuf getting 10-16 inches of snow, with a few outliers between 5-10 inches. Hope that comes to fruition! Must be taking in the banding potential.

[Flying MXZ]

Looks like the latest nam destroys Rick and puts me on the edge of the real heavy stuff.

[DueUCMe]

I know you guys are just getting geared up for the current storm but has anyone looked past this one to next week yet. I ask because I will be traveling via car from NC to WNY next Wednesday and would like to keep a heads up on what may or may not be going on.

 

Thanks in advance!

 

Mason

[Gorizer]

Does anyone have access to the new Euro data?  Any ideas for the Capital District?  The NYC forum just exploded because apparently the Euro came a bit west and is putting down 2" liquid from the Garden State Parkway east, so NYC may be in on this blizzard.   I'm wondering about the impact in upstate NY, especially here in the CD.

 

Thanks.

[heavy_wx]

Does anyone have access to the new Euro data?  Any ideas for the Capital District?  The NYC forum just exploded because apparently the Euro came a bit west and is putting down 2" liquid from the Garden State Parkway east, so NYC may be in on this blizzard.   I'm wondering about the impact in upstate NY, especially here in the CD.

 

Thanks.

 

I haven't seen the maps yet but the text data puts out .77" of precip for ALB..

[Gorizer]

I haven't seen the maps yet but the text data puts out .77" of precip for ALB..

  Ahh...   OK.  Thanks.   I kinda figured that the NAM had lost it's mind for what it was putting down around Albany.  .77" seems more reasonable.

[LakeEffectKing]

For CNY, Euro doesn't do much...we have been shafted! 3-6 at best, verbatium...and delayed...

[Revracer800]

So CNY went from 6-12 and now 3-6? wow.

[Gorizer]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO

NOON EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND

WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES IN THE

WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND

SARATOGA REGIONS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 16 INCHES SCHOHARIE

VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON

VALLEY...TACONICS...AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. ACCUMULATIONS OF 12 TO

18 INCHES IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES...SNOW RATES WILL OCCASIONALLY EXCEED ONE

INCH PER HOUR DURING FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN FRIDAY MORNING...AND BECOME STEADIER

AND HEAVIER BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL

WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY

MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY...FREQUENTLY

BELOW 1 MILE...WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL.

[BuffaloWeather]

Euro Destroys most of WNY with a foot of snow or more possibly.

[lakeeffectkid383]

Euro Destroys most of WNY with a foot of snow or more possibly.

same with 15z SERF. About 12-15" for BUF and 15-20" for Niagara and Orleans counties.

[Syrmax]

George, looking like CNY will be between best dynamics w/ primary to N & W and coastal to SE. We probably squeak out 5-6" but it won't be impressive here. And no LES worth mentioning afterwards. At least we should remain all SN. On to the next one it appears.

[CNYWeather]

Looks like NYC and Long Island will be paralyzed for a few days.

[WNash]

Euro Destroys most of WNY with a foot of snow or more possibly.

 

same with 15z SERF. About 12-15" for BUF and 15-20" for Niagara and Orleans counties.

 

Check the AFD from the Buffalo NWS: general 4 to 6 inches in WNY for the daytime, another 1 to 3 Friday evening. Adding it up (which they don't do in the AFD: 5 to 9 total in the Metro. Mention of a warm nose tonight, leading to a mix not only in the southern tier but possibly as far north as Buffalo and Batavia tomorrow. I'm assuming that's why they're going way low on the forecasted amounts.

 

Seems that this is what KBUF thinks and they're sticking to it. Is anyone here on board with this?

[heavy_wx]

The winter storm warning for Oswego county has 10-18", while the grid forecast only shows 7-12". I think the 7-12" is much more likely here with the best dynamics from the clippler to the north and west. The area along the south shore of Lake Ontario could get a bit more with better lake enhancement and frontogenesis. especially for Niagara and Orleans counties.

[lakeeffectkid383]

Check the AFD from the Buffalo NWS: general 4 to 6 inches in WNY for the daytime, another 1 to 3 Friday evening. Adding it up (which they don't do in the AFD: 5 to 9 total in the Metro. Mention of a warm nose tonight, leading to a mix not only in the southern tier but possibly as far north as Buffalo and Batavia tomorrow. I'm assuming that's why they're going way low on the forecasted amounts.

 

Seems that this is what KBUF thinks and they're sticking to it. Is anyone here on board with this?

i think that Buffalo and Batavia northward be fine. If sleet does make it I think its only gonna make it up to about me (Orchard Park). Im expecting a little sleet to mix in here with prob 5-8" here. I think you guys in Buffalo and the northtowns are more likley to see 8-12".

[WNash]

i think that Buffalo and Batavia northward be fine. If sleet does make it I think its only gonna make it up to about me (Orchard Park). Im expecting a little sleet to mix in here with prob 5-8" here. I think you guys in Buffalo and the northtowns are more likley to see 8-12".

 

I expect that somewhere there's going to be a dropoff, maybe a fairly significant one. It must be a tough call on forecasting amounts.

[scottmartin49]

"Seems that this is what KBUF thinks and they're sticking to it. Is anyone here on board with this?"

The low looks to be tracking more E than NE- early shutdown.

[lakeeffectkid383]

I expect that somewhere there's going to be a dropoff, maybe a fairly significant one. It must be a tough call on forecasting amounts.

my high by the NWS today was 32. I made it to 36 today and am currently sitting at 34 while Buffalo and the northtowns sit around 30. I think the area that is experiencing warmer temps that forecasted is the area that will see sleet tomorrow. I think anyone south of West Seneca has a shot at sleet tomorrow. Wondering how low well get tonight before precip moves in tomorrow. Only good thing is there should be some decent dynamic cooling tomorrow one we get into heavier precip rates after daybreak.