BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I was wondering what was up with the 18". What shows that lol? Not exactly sure, has me puzzled as well. Was hoping you were going to be able to chime in on the reason. Guess Not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I was wondering what was up with the 18". What shows that lol?ya me too. I have no clue where that 18" came from. I was honestly thinking 5-10" at best is what'd they'd say. I think 6-12" is much more reasonable. They must be seeing something we don't because like BuffaloWeather said they're usually pretty conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAYMORNING.* LOCATIONS...THE NORTH COUNTRY.* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT...6 TO 12 INCHES FRIDAY...6 TO 11 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY...POTENTIALLY LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF MORE THAN 2 FEET. The 12z Euro has about 1.25" LE snowfall for northern Jefferson county, so ratios are going to have to be pretty good to get 2'. Surface temperatures east of Lake Ontario may help out a bit with a low level east-southeasterly flow of cold air up the mohawk valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 http://eosweb.ssec.wisc.edu/browse_images/terra/2013/037/2013-02-06_1609-1620_LERI_010403_QKM.jpg Lake Erie Ice Cover, still a good 2 weeks left before completely frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 ya me too. I have no clue where that 18" came from. I was honestly thinking 5-10" at best is what'd they'd say. I think 6-12" is much more reasonable. They must be seeing something we don't because like BuffaloWeather said they're usually pretty conservative. Ratios shoud be alright...but not that particularly good...maybe 12:1 on average? It's more dictated by the coolness of the column and how good you're lift and moisture is in your SGZ than the surface temps. And we aren't going above freezing with that 1040mb high to our north. I'd feel pretty confident on reaching 8"...but maybe a 30% chance at 12". I don't see how we get 18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Ratios shoud be alright...but not that particularly good...maybe 12:1 on average? It's more dictated by the coolness of the column and how good you're lift and moisture is in your SGZ than the surface temps. And we aren't going above freezing with that 1040mb high to our north. I'd feel pretty confident on reaching 8"...but maybe a 30% chance at 12". I don't see how we get 18". Seems like quite a few similarities between this storm and the one that hit in December that gave most of the region 12 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Seems like quite a few similarities between this storm and the one that hit in December that gave most of the region 12 inches.yep will prob be a pretty similar storm. That storm was great and Id gladly take another one of those anytime yet alone twice in the same winter, this storm should get me over 60" for the season for sure which isnt bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Seems like quite a few similarities between this storm and the one that hit in December that gave most of the region 12 inches. except this a Miller B....that one was not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS beefed qpf by maybe .05 or so near BUF. It does have the 1" line into northern Orleans and Monroe Counties now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 except this a Miller B....that one was not. Has huge bust potential IMO. Dry slot, quicker transfer then modeled, warm air aloft, bad ratios.... Just not that excited for this, I see 4-8 inches from my location to PA line, maybe 6-10 for my location north towards Lake Ontario shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS beefed qpf by maybe .05 or so near BUF. It does have the 1" line into northern Orleans and Monroe Counties now.id say IAG to Lockport to ROC sees 10-12"", BUF sees 8-10" and JHW to Wellsville sees 4-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Has huge bust potential IMO. Dry slot, quicker transfer then modeled, warm air aloft, bad ratios.... Just not that excited for this, I see 4-8 inches from my location to PA line, maybe 6-10 for my location north towards Lake Ontario shoreline.I was just going to say the same thing. Somebody gets shafted big time but will know ahead of time so its not as much of a let down. I am expecting much less that what is being forecasted. I hope it goes better for us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Has huge bust potential IMO. Dry slot, quicker transfer then modeled, warm air aloft, bad ratios.... Just not that excited for this, I see 4-8 inches from my location to PA line, maybe 6-10 for my location north towards Lake Ontario shoreline. i mean that certainly is in the realm of possibilities. Actually the quicker transfer is a bit better for us. You see the 18z gfs actually hangs the dying primary/inverted trough over us longer instead of flinging it east. That's because the transfer happens and the flow reverses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 northern PA and SE WNY are probably going to be screwed to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 What should those of us in CNY/Finger Lakes region be hoping for if we want a bigger snowfall? I'm guessing an earlier transfer so the cold air and moisture get pulled in sooner, but I'm not certain. Would a later transfer keep the northern system strong enough to enhance snowfall totals? I agree that the bust potential is pretty high here considering our position between the two pieces of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 northern PA and SE WNY are probably going to be screwed to some extent.ya Olean to Wellsville looks to be the "screwzone" for WNY. Oh well , this is still a nice surprise synoptic event which is alot better than nothing. This winter is worlds better than last year even though its still a bit below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 i mean that certainly is in the realm of possibilities. Actually the quicker transfer is a bit better for us. You see the 18z gfs actually hangs the dying primary/inverted trough over us longer instead of flinging it east. That's because the transfer happens and the flow reverses. Yes but snowfall rates are quite a bit different from the "main show dynamics" in comparison to the "deformation zone dynamics" the quicker transfers allows us to remain in deform band longer but snowfall rates drastically decrease usually. The quicker transfer would get rid of the dry slow potential as well as the possible mixing problem though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Channel 2 calling for 3-7 across metro Buffalo, watch him be right. I will LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Channel 2 calling for 3-7 across metro Buffalo, watch him be right. I will LOL!lol. Its def possible we only see 3-7". Kevin O'Connel is an idiot though not to mention he's not even a meteorologist.He has the city and suburbs at 3-7" but had 6-12" to our north and SOUTH. Theres no way if we only see 3-7" places to our south see 6-12". Just goes to show you how much of an idiot he is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 lol. Its def possible we only see 3-7". Kevin O'Connel is an idiot though not to mention he's not even a meteorologist. He has the city and suburbs at 3-7" but had 6-12" to our north and SOUTH. Theres no way if we only see 3-7" places to our south see 6-12". Just goes to show you how much of an idiot he is. Don Paul is the best local Buffalo weatherman I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Don Paul is the best local Buffalo weatherman I think. I'll second that. Don Paul suggested 6" to 10" for Buffalo northward based on in house modeling, but cautioned that "other models" were showing much more. I don't even bother with WGRZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yes but snowfall rates are quite a bit different from the "main show dynamics" in comparison to the "deformation zone dynamics" the quicker transfers allows us to remain in deform band longer but snowfall rates drastically decrease usually. The quicker transfer would get rid of the dry slow potential as well as the possible mixing problem though. no doubt. The set up is a bit flunky. Usually, BUF dreads the quick transfer because there is a well-developed low coming in from the midwest moving to our south. Then there's a skip in dynamics as the low transfers to the coast. This isn't the case here...the low is pedestrian and it's pretty much over us or just to our near south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 With this mornings nearly 2" I am up to 85" for the season IMBY, 10 mi. NW of KSYR. We should come in pretty close to average this season. KBUF's WSW accumulation discussion for Oswego cty and north looks a bit overstated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 U guys in BUF have never been in a "real" deformation zone. Talk to northern NJ people about Boxing Day or people in Berkshires about Jan 2011 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Some observations about this system. It looks to have a similar outcome (not necessarily synoptics) in CNY as the Jan 2005 snowstorm - about a foot of snow. Differences are that the 2005 storm (like VDII) had as much or more LES afterwards. Not sure if the lake snow materializes this time. Seems as though it will be north of SYR area if any at all. Also, the 2005 storm was decidedly colder, we got a foot here near SYR and temps were in the low single digits for much of the storm. I remember it as the Cold Storm. I think there were blizzard warnings in southern New England for Jan 2005 (though standards have decidedly lowered for use of that warning down there in recent years). The relative lack of cold air, as compared to '05, will probably have an impact down along the coast as mixing or changeover did not happen in 2005 but is much more probable this time in the usual areas (S&E of I-95 from about GON on up to PWM). Also WNY south of BUF looks to have p-type issues this time (IIRC WNY had only light snow in '05). I'd call this moderate impact to CNY due to region-wide coverage. Schools will close but not much else and Saturday is obviously the weekend. Enjoy it, should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 U guys in BUF have never been in a "real" deformation zone. Talk to northern NJ people about Boxing Day or people in Berkshires about Jan 2011 lol. That's because its nearly impossible due to the our location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 That's because its nearly impossible due to the our location. i know. We deal with weak deformation zones here almost exclusively. We are too far from the atlantic and a lot of the inflow/moisture is rung out before it gets to the 700mb frontogentical region in our area. 00z NAM is pretty nice. Congrats ART...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 When was that storm when Rochester got clocked with close to two feet and Syracuse was more like 3 to 6? This is going back a ways but was a strong Appalachians runner. Buffalo probably picked up over a foot if Rochester was close to two but they also had lake enhancement. 8 to 10 years or more??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 i know. We deal with weak deformation zones here almost exclusively. We are too far from the atlantic and a lot of the inflow/moisture is rung out before it gets to the 700mb frontogentical region in our area. 00z NAM is pretty nice. Congrats ART...wow. Road trip Worchester MA anyone? I'll drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Latest Watch from BUF dropped totals back to the 6-11" range, more along the lines of what most around here seem to be thinking. Must have been a rookie on the day shift....Here's how the shift transition probably went - 2nd shift veteran: Son, you’ve got a better chance of having Frosty the Snowman himself walk into this office with a dozen Anchor Bar wings than you do for that 9-18 inch forecast to work out. 1st shift rookie: But sir, those Euro QPF outputs… 2nd shift veteran: To hell with that Euro trash! This is Buffalo, son, synoptic systems produce around here about as good as the Bills. 1st shift rookie: Yes sir, but that cold northeast flow off Lake Ontario looks…. 2nd shift veteran: F that little pond to our north! Only lake around here that’s dumping 9-18 inches of snow is Lake Erie. Now move over so I can issue this update… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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