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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Spring 2013


heavy_wx

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  • 2 weeks later...

Hi guys! I love the part of the country you call home. I'm visiting Oneida Lake, (South Bay/Canastota) area from 7/3-7/9. I'm pulling for cooler than normal weather. Does anyone have some insight on where you think the area ends up that week? I've been model watching and scorching looks very unlikely. I am a bit concerned it will be unsettled and stormy with the trof progged to be in place. I guess my hope is the trof sets up a bit farther east bringing cool and dry conditions.

Any insight as to what's on the horizon at week would be appreciated.

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Hi guys! I love the part of the country you call home. I'm visiting Oneida Lake, (South Bay/Canastota) area from 7/3-7/9. I'm pulling for cooler than normal weather. Does anyone have some insight on where you think the area ends up that week? I've been model watching and scorching looks very unlikely. I am a bit concerned it will be unsettled and stormy with the trof progged to be in place. I guess my hope is the trof sets up a bit farther east bringing cool and dry conditions.

Any insight as to what's on the horizon at week would be appreciated.

ill be camping in Allegany State Park during the same time period and I am also hoping for below normal temps but dry conditions. The last thing I want while Im camping is 60s and rain but Id 60s and sunshine or low 70s and sunshine with low humidity.
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  • 2 weeks later...

There should be at least an isolated severe thunderstorm threat tomorrow. Wind fields are better than the past few days and given closer proximity to an approaching trough, seeing moderate helicity values as well. It will be interesting to see how much daytime heating the area can achieve. 18z 4km NAM has a bunch of showers and does not look very impressive.

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There should be at least an isolated severe thunderstorm threat tomorrow. Wind fields are better than the past few days and given closer proximity to an approaching trough, seeing moderate helicity values as well. It will be interesting to see how much daytime heating the area can achieve. 18z 4km NAM has a bunch of showers and does not look very impressive.

 

A weak surface trough ahead of the cold front looks like it might initiate showers around 15z, ahead of the more impressive 500 mb winds and in a less unstable environment. This is shown in both cores of the WRF run by NCEP. The environment still looks decent though ahead of the cold front in CNY, which might bring an isolated severe storm later.

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Humid summer has been the theme for the upstate so far

 

Looks like it will continue for much of this coming week. The dew point in ALB is already back up to 69 right now.

 

The CIPS analogs based off of today's 12z GFS have quite a few notable high heat and humidity periods as matches. The probability of dew points greater than 75 for the evening of the 17th (derived from the top analogs) is around 50% in the capital region and even higher farther south. The probablilites of greater than 70 degree dew points are around 90%.

 

post-869-0-20975400-1373759886_thumb.png

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3rd straight 90 degree day here in Buffalo. Has the possibility of being 6 days straight if the SW wind off the lake does not go to far inland. If it does achieve that, it would be an all time record here. Buffalo airport averages 2-3 90+ degree days in a typical summer, so this is indeed very rare. The Buffalo Airport has never reached 100 degrees in record keeping history, only 99! Again, this is mainly due to the lake acting as a cooling mechanism for the airport. (Even though its 10-12 miles Northeast of the Lake) Fun Facts! ^_^

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What do you know, lake effect season is here a bit early.

KBUF AFD:

SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED WITH THISLOW WILL BE -2SD TEMPERATURE AND HEIGHT ANOMALIES. AT 850 HPA COLD +8C AIR WILL BE PASSING ACROSS LAKE ERIE...AND WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST A SOUTHWEST FLOW UP LAKE ERIE WILL RESULT. THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WATERS ARE STILL VERY WARM...SUCH THAT DELTA T`S BETWEEN THE 25-26C LAKE ERIE WATERS AND THE +7C AIR 850 HPA AIR WILL BE 18 TO 19C WHICH IS MODERATE LAKE INSTABILITY. WITH SYNOPTIC MOISTURE INCREASING WITHIN THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER AS MOISTURE WRAPS BACK AROUND OUR

REGION...AND LIFT FROM LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN IS

LIKELY TO FORM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING OFF LAKE

ERIE. WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY HERE...

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One of the worse storms I’ve seen in quite awhile just hit Hamburg. Dime size hail, torrential rains(Worse I’ve seen in forever), lightning every few seconds, wind gust must have been around 60-65 mph. Severe T-Storm Warning just issued. Haven't seen wind gusts like I just experienced in years, what a treat! =)

 

* AT 405 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ORCHARD PARK…OR NEAR HAMBURG…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

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One of the worse storms I’ve seen in quite awhile just hit Hamburg. Dime size hail, torrential rains(Worse I’ve seen in forever), lightning every few seconds, wind gust must have been around 60-65 mph. Severe T-Storm Warning just issued. Haven't seen wind gusts like I just experienced in years, what a treat! =)

* AT 405 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

ORCHARD PARK…OR NEAR HAMBURG…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

and of course I'm at work in Niagara falls. :(
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