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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Spring 2013


heavy_wx

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KBUF AFD compared it to the April 2003 event which gave ROC one heck of an ice storm. Environment Canada mentioned that it could be quite significant in Southern Ontario as well. As the models keep trending colder, this gets more and more interesting.

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I'd be concerned about decent power outages and damage in the Niagara Falls/Lockport corridor, just above the escarpment.  The euro came in coldest yet on the 12z run....doesn't break us out above freezing until about 06z overnight Thursday night.

gotta work in Wheatfield tomorrow near Niagara Falls Blvd and Ward Rd for those fimilar with the area, could get bad out there,
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Cold and wet. Yuck

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

 

I'm convinced last Spring ruined my mindset as what I should expect from CNY springtimes....hopefully this isn't a repeat of the flooding in the spring of 2011. The worthless mosquitoes were terrible that early summer.

 

The only good that came of it was the waterfalls in Lick Brook were roaring in May

5733807200_fe6837c43b_z.jpg

 

5736890268_bd04eed64c_z.jpg

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Just got back from a week in Miami last night. Was 85 and sunny every day. Came back last night to 34 degrees and snow when we were flying. My body nearly went into shock. Looking forward to a little bit of warmth this week. Hopefully soon we can make a consistent pattern change to spring type weather.

 

Nice today with 67F here and partly cloudy. Thursday and Friday should be fairly warm, depending on cloud cover, with a possible severe threat on Friday. Instability right now looks pretty low on the GFS (up to between 500-750 J/kg) with some warmer air at mid levels associated with an EML-like feature. The winds look nice with veering at low-levels and significant shear between the surface and 500 mb.

 

Here's a sounding from the GFS for 18z Friday near SYR.

post-869-0-89106500-1366057832_thumb.png

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Nice today with 67F here and partly cloudy. Thursday and Friday should be fairly warm, depending on cloud cover, with a possible severe threat on Friday. Instability right now looks pretty low on the GFS (up to between 500-750 J/kg) with some warmer air at mid levels associated with an EML-like feature. The winds look nice with veering at low-levels and significant shear between the surface and 500 mb.

 

Here's a sounding from the GFS for 18z Friday near SYR.

attachicon.gifGFS_3_2013041512_F102_43.0000N_76.5000W.png

 

Looks like I brought back some heat and sun from Florida! ^_^

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81 degrees at BUF NWS. Great call OSU, didn't see anyone calling for low 80s, but mid 70s.

Thanks, it's a classic warm downslope event for BUF.  Always go well over MOS with a strong southerly.  I was a bit worried this morning with all the cloud cover, but with the strong ridging it cleared out and we went to town.

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