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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Spring 2013


heavy_wx

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SYR had officially 10.1" with .25 water equiv....yesterday....giving a ratio of over 40:1 in April!! That also gets SYR to within a few inches of normal....which they may have received overnight. (I received abou 2 more inches.)

 

 

 

 

 

SNOWFALL (IN)
  YESTERDAY       10.5 R        

  MONTH TO DATE   11.3                       

  SINCE MAR 1     31.5                      

  SINCE JUL 1    114.7                     

  SNOW DEPTH       7

 

 

PRECIPITATION (IN)
  YESTERDAY        0.25         

 

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SYR had officially 10.1" with .25 water equiv....yesterday....giving a ratio of over 40:1 in April!! That also gets SYR to within a few inches of normal....which they may have received overnight. (I received abou 2 more inches.)

 

 

 

 

 

SNOWFALL (IN)

  YESTERDAY       10.5 R        

  MONTH TO DATE   11.3                       

  SINCE MAR 1     31.5                      

  SINCE JUL 1    114.7                     

  SNOW DEPTH       7

 

 

PRECIPITATION (IN)

  YESTERDAY        0.25         

 

 

That should put them above Worcester for snowiest city (>100,000 people) in the country this season.

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Lake Erie has melted out....went back up to 33F this morning.

 

Btw, ASOS sucks for precip measuring in snowfall.  We talked about this in Oswego...there's been times where they recorded 100:1 ratios...meteorologically ridiculous....unless someone is taking a core I wouldn't put much stock in 40:1....

The snow from 04/02/13 was extremely fluffy.  I didn't take a liquid equivalent, but I'd of pegged it at around 25:1 or so....40:1 is the least dense I ever officially received (when I was doing some unofficial research for the NWS back in the '90's)...It's the type of snow that you can see the object below through 6".  Or the type where you open your car door, slam it, and you have pretty much removed a good deal of it!! :)

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i see the NAM is spitting out well over 1/2" of freezing rain. Do you think even with the mid April sun icing could be realized?

 

we'll see.  The Euro is a touch warmer than the NAM for BUF...looks like mid 30s or so in BUF on Thursday.  I'd favor very cold rain in the metro area...but I'd keep an eye on it especially for Lake Ontario border counties into the north Country.  This set up isn't all that dissimilar to the April 4, 2003 ice storm.

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Western NY is blowing up with t storms and the NWS seems to be asleep at the wheel again.

 

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL NEW YORK..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

 

post-4376-0-02309600-1365560580_thumb.pn

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Western NY is blowing up with t storms and the NWS seems to be asleep at the wheel again.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH

CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

All that is, is heavy rain with some embedded thunder/lightning. Hardly hazardous weather. But by all means continue to trash them, even when you're wrong.

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All that is, is heavy rain with some embedded thunder/lightning. Hardly hazardous weather. But by all means continue to trash them, even when you're wrong.

I agree with you. I was right in those "storms" and they wernt storms at all. Some good downpours with a bit of thunder and lightning but no damaging winds by any means and no hail or anything. The NWS is never "asleep at the wheel" and thered be no reason for them to issue any sort of HWO or Storm Warning. Its a good thing he only has 15 post and hopefully he keeps it at 15 post for a long time.
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NWS is now mentioning ZR as a possibility...and really cut down temps.  Now have 33/36 in BUF on Thursday.  

yup and the GFS even has about .70" of precip with 850s well above 0c and 925mb temps below 0c with 10m temps right around 32. Gonna be a close call between a cold cold rainy day and a historic ice storm.
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The top 3 CIPS analogs based on the 00z GFS at hour 60 all had at least some freezing rain. The 4/5/03 event is one of the those along with 3/2/07, another significant ice event. I think areas east of Lake Ontario could see cold air funneling from the Mohawk valley with low-level SE flow, enhancing the freezing rain potential.

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Oh my bad. I was wrong to believe lightning strikes all around my house were hazardous. Uh oh, 16 posts now - out of control! lol Better tell the moderator!

 

The HWO is used for severe weather...not general thunderstorms.  You'll notice the flooding potential from the heavy rains over the next few days in there.

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although I am of the opinion that thunderstorm advisories wouldn't be a bad idea.  We issued them in Bermuda and I think they're reasonable given lightning is such a big killer.  

In the summer months it seems the NWS would have issued a watch or warning. Maybe the intensity was not high enough last night to trigger anything from them.

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Morning Commute going to be a mess,how much are they forecasting?

An ice storm during the second week of April is pretty unprecedented.  That said, the setup is nearly ideal for icing.  As stated though, sun angle, proximity to the lake, and timing of the precip will have a major impact on whether any ice accumulation actually verifies.  Icing on the roads seems very unlikely, with only elevated surfaces (trees, powerlines) likely able to drop below freezing.  The commute should be fine in regards to actual road conditions.

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