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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Spring 2013


heavy_wx

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Radar looks impressive especally for this time of the year. On and off heavy burst of snow covering just about all the grass now with about 1/2" to an inch on the roads/sidewalks. The biggest thing is its been snowing off and on all day but melting on the roads/sidewalks and now that the temp has dropped to 22 everything has a sheet of ice on it, covered up by the snow. Super slick and very wintry feeling out there.

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Actually getting some decent multi-band lake effect right now with light snow. Feeling pretty wintry out there with a temperature of 22F and 30 mph gusts.

Yeah, pretty wintry down here also.  19° this morning with off and on snow showers.  Came down hard for a bit yesterday evening and this morning but probably only an inch or so total.

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Light to sometimes moderate snow here all morning. Managed to add up to about an inch even on sidewalks/secondary roads. Main road are fine though. Grass is also just about all covered up. This puts me just over 70" for the season. Below average but not bad compared to last years 36" (although I was in Buffalo last winter not Orchard Park).

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Light to sometimes moderate snow here all morning. Managed to add up to about an inch even on sidewalks/secondary roads. Main road are fine though. Grass is also just about all covered up. This puts me just over 70" for the season. Below average but not bad compared to last years 36" (although I was in Buffalo last winter not Orchard Park).

 

I predicted 70-75 inches for you when we had 3 inches around Christmas...Talk about good predicting skills!! =P

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It's a bummer that the models are moving away from quick coastal development. I guess most of the qpf for this one will be liquid for WNY...

I didn't see the models showing quick coastal development for the last few days if not several.  It's not a Miller B...so any snow (which I do believe there will be some) would be with the front end push...before the primary warms the mid-levels.  The shortwave drives into the lakes...not through PA.  The surface reflection that develops near Long Island is driven by the blocking to the northeast and the antecedent cold airmass.

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The latest 12z Euro gives ALB 1.08" of precip, all of which would fall as snow. The GFS is still warmer, changing most of the heavier precip over to rain.

 

The top CIPS analog based off of the GFS at hour 72 is 2/24/94, where 6-8" fell throughout the capital district and areas north and west. The fact that the top analog from the GFS is much closer to the Euro scenerio (though still a bit warmer) suggests that the Euro should be favored.

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WSW for 5"-8" here.  Nice storm for at least the eastern 1/2 of NY.  But of course the big show will be in New England.  Again.

 

Yeah, no kidding.  Even with this secondary coming right over Boston, we can't jackpot in eastern New York.  Remember when that USED to be the case?  Memories........     

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Latest Euro has 0.82" QPF, most of which would be snow with mabye a brief period of IP. The heaviest precip looks to be Tuesday afternoon as the secondary low begins to develop with ENY in the zone of favorable deformation frontogenesis. There also looks to be fortogenetic forcing for a seperate band from the CAA and westerly winds associated with the primary low over the Great Lakes.

 

I think 4-8" seems reasonable for ALB, depending on the placement and intensity of the banding. At this time, areas north of ALB such as the Southern Adirondacks look favorable for the most intense banding Tuesday and thus highest totals.

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A 4-8" storm for Albany (which does seem reasonable) would drop them back to winter weather advisory territory (ALB loves their 4-8" advisory headlines).  I'd be surprised if they dropped them back to an advisory so quickly after posting a warning, but Euro has cut back on precip.  The secondary moving near/across the Cape is usually a great track for ENY, its just getting its act together a bit too late I guess.  CNE/NNE should do great again however. 

Latest Euro has 0.82" QPF, most of which would be snow with mabye a brief period of IP. The heaviest precip looks to be Tuesday afternoon as the secondary low begins to develop with ENY in the zone of favorable deformation frontogenesis. There also looks to be fortogenetic forcing for a seperate band from the CAA and westerly winds associated with the primary low over the Great Lakes.

 

I think 4-8" seems reasonable for ALB, depending on the placement and intensity of the banding. At this time, areas north of ALB such as the Southern Adirondacks look favorable for the most intense banding Tuesday and thus highest totals.

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Latest Euro has 0.82" QPF, most of which would be snow with mabye a brief period of IP. The heaviest precip looks to be Tuesday afternoon as the secondary low begins to develop with ENY in the zone of favorable deformation frontogenesis. There also looks to be fortogenetic forcing for a seperate band from the CAA and westerly winds associated with the primary low over the Great Lakes.

Nick I agree mostly with your post I was thinking 6-10 total. I said it would be a two-fer event Round #1 giving 3-5 to Albany on the PIVA and WAA associated with the occlusion. Round 2 would also be in the 3-5 range with the developing coastal though I did say that how much moisture it threw back west was uncertain and also the dry wedge coming in from the west associated with the occluding primary. Also shadowing on the front thump will impact snowfall amounts w/ round 1 thus that is why I cut back on the initial surge across the HV and points east.

I think 4-8" seems reasonable for ALB, depending on the placement and intensity of the banding. At this time, areas north of ALB such as the Southern Adirondacks look favorable for the most intense banding Tuesday and thus highest totals.

 

Stash again I agree for the most part..PIVA events are often poorly forecast by the models w.r.t. onset (tend to arrive sooner) and end (faster). They can also overperform especially if strong omega intersects the snow growth region. That's not the case with tonight's snowfall...none the less high terrain west of the HV especially the 'Dacks will do well.

 

See above reply to Nick's post regarding round 2

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Nick I agree mostly with your post I was thinking 6-10 total. I said it would be a two-fer event Round #1 giving 3-5 to Albany on the PIVA and WAA associated with the occlusion. Round 2 would also be in the 3-5 range with the developing coastal though I did say that how much moisture it threw back west was uncertain and also the dry wedge coming in from the west associated with the occluding primary. Also shadowing on the front thump will impact snowfall amounts w/ round 1 thus that is why I cut back on the initial surge across the HV and points east.

 

Already 2.0" on the ground here near Albany. I think the 3-5" tonight has a good chance of verifying based on the latest radar.

 

BTW, I think you have me confused with OSUmetstud. I'll probably be changing my name soon though anyway.

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Already 2.0" on the ground here near Albany. I think the 3-5" tonight has a good chance of verifying based on the latest radar.

 

BTW, I think you have me confused with OSUmetstud. I'll probably be changing my name soon though anyway.

Ooops ypu're right. My bad senility strikes after 55 years. :-0

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