OSUmetstud Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 some graupel showers here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 We've had a couple quick snow showers this morning here in North Buffalo which have left a dusting. Light snow, but nice sized dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 13, 2013 Author Share Posted March 13, 2013 Light snow here with moderate sized dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Radar looks impressive especally for this time of the year. On and off heavy burst of snow covering just about all the grass now with about 1/2" to an inch on the roads/sidewalks. The biggest thing is its been snowing off and on all day but melting on the roads/sidewalks and now that the temp has dropped to 22 everything has a sheet of ice on it, covered up by the snow. Super slick and very wintry feeling out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 2 inches of snow,very slick out there. R.I.P SPRING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 14, 2013 Author Share Posted March 14, 2013 About 1/2" on the ground here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 14, 2013 Author Share Posted March 14, 2013 Actually getting some decent multi-band lake effect right now with light snow. Feeling pretty wintry out there with a temperature of 22F and 30 mph gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Actually getting some decent multi-band lake effect right now with light snow. Feeling pretty wintry out there with a temperature of 22F and 30 mph gusts. Yeah, pretty wintry down here also. 19° this morning with off and on snow showers. Came down hard for a bit yesterday evening and this morning but probably only an inch or so total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 15, 2013 Author Share Posted March 15, 2013 Light snow right now coating the ground and the patchy snowfall from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Light to sometimes moderate snow here all morning. Managed to add up to about an inch even on sidewalks/secondary roads. Main road are fine though. Grass is also just about all covered up. This puts me just over 70" for the season. Below average but not bad compared to last years 36" (although I was in Buffalo last winter not Orchard Park). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Light to sometimes moderate snow here all morning. Managed to add up to about an inch even on sidewalks/secondary roads. Main road are fine though. Grass is also just about all covered up. This puts me just over 70" for the season. Below average but not bad compared to last years 36" (although I was in Buffalo last winter not Orchard Park). I predicted 70-75 inches for you when we had 3 inches around Christmas...Talk about good predicting skills!! =P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 16, 2013 Author Share Posted March 16, 2013 Got about 1/2 an inch of snow here in Albany as that banded feature swung through several hours ago. It will be interesting to see how the Monday/Tuesday event will unfold here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Yesterday and last evening overperformed here. An inch on the walks, almost 2 on the grass. BGM has sleet as primary p-type here Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 It's a bummer that the models are moving away from quick coastal development. I guess most of the qpf for this one will be liquid for WNY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 It's a bummer that the models are moving away from quick coastal development. I guess most of the qpf for this one will be liquid for WNY... I didn't see the models showing quick coastal development for the last few days if not several. It's not a Miller B...so any snow (which I do believe there will be some) would be with the front end push...before the primary warms the mid-levels. The shortwave drives into the lakes...not through PA. The surface reflection that develops near Long Island is driven by the blocking to the northeast and the antecedent cold airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 16, 2013 Author Share Posted March 16, 2013 The latest 12z Euro gives ALB 1.08" of precip, all of which would fall as snow. The GFS is still warmer, changing most of the heavier precip over to rain. The top CIPS analog based off of the GFS at hour 72 is 2/24/94, where 6-8" fell throughout the capital district and areas north and west. The fact that the top analog from the GFS is much closer to the Euro scenerio (though still a bit warmer) suggests that the Euro should be favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 WSW for 5"-8" here. Nice storm for at least the eastern 1/2 of NY. But of course the big show will be in New England. Again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 WSW for 5"-8" here. Nice storm for at least the eastern 1/2 of NY. But of course the big show will be in New England. Again. Yeah, no kidding. Even with this secondary coming right over Boston, we can't jackpot in eastern New York. Remember when that USED to be the case? Memories........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 And the "winter that could have been" continues! If we had received 18+" out of any of the near misses where we received 6-8" we would have been snowmobiling, snowshoeing, etc all season long! It would have been a classic winter. 10* Sunday morning. 7* this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Another borderline warm event for us WNY'ers near the lakes...dang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 Latest Euro has 0.82" QPF, most of which would be snow with mabye a brief period of IP. The heaviest precip looks to be Tuesday afternoon as the secondary low begins to develop with ENY in the zone of favorable deformation frontogenesis. There also looks to be fortogenetic forcing for a seperate band from the CAA and westerly winds associated with the primary low over the Great Lakes. I think 4-8" seems reasonable for ALB, depending on the placement and intensity of the banding. At this time, areas north of ALB such as the Southern Adirondacks look favorable for the most intense banding Tuesday and thus highest totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 A 4-8" storm for Albany (which does seem reasonable) would drop them back to winter weather advisory territory (ALB loves their 4-8" advisory headlines). I'd be surprised if they dropped them back to an advisory so quickly after posting a warning, but Euro has cut back on precip. The secondary moving near/across the Cape is usually a great track for ENY, its just getting its act together a bit too late I guess. CNE/NNE should do great again however. Latest Euro has 0.82" QPF, most of which would be snow with mabye a brief period of IP. The heaviest precip looks to be Tuesday afternoon as the secondary low begins to develop with ENY in the zone of favorable deformation frontogenesis. There also looks to be fortogenetic forcing for a seperate band from the CAA and westerly winds associated with the primary low over the Great Lakes. I think 4-8" seems reasonable for ALB, depending on the placement and intensity of the banding. At this time, areas north of ALB such as the Southern Adirondacks look favorable for the most intense banding Tuesday and thus highest totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Latest Euro has 0.82" QPF, most of which would be snow with mabye a brief period of IP. The heaviest precip looks to be Tuesday afternoon as the secondary low begins to develop with ENY in the zone of favorable deformation frontogenesis. There also looks to be fortogenetic forcing for a seperate band from the CAA and westerly winds associated with the primary low over the Great Lakes. Nick I agree mostly with your post I was thinking 6-10 total. I said it would be a two-fer event Round #1 giving 3-5 to Albany on the PIVA and WAA associated with the occlusion. Round 2 would also be in the 3-5 range with the developing coastal though I did say that how much moisture it threw back west was uncertain and also the dry wedge coming in from the west associated with the occluding primary. Also shadowing on the front thump will impact snowfall amounts w/ round 1 thus that is why I cut back on the initial surge across the HV and points east. I think 4-8" seems reasonable for ALB, depending on the placement and intensity of the banding. At this time, areas north of ALB such as the Southern Adirondacks look favorable for the most intense banding Tuesday and thus highest totals. Stash again I agree for the most part..PIVA events are often poorly forecast by the models w.r.t. onset (tend to arrive sooner) and end (faster). They can also overperform especially if strong omega intersects the snow growth region. That's not the case with tonight's snowfall...none the less high terrain west of the HV especially the 'Dacks will do well. See above reply to Nick's post regarding round 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 19, 2013 Author Share Posted March 19, 2013 Nick I agree mostly with your post I was thinking 6-10 total. I said it would be a two-fer event Round #1 giving 3-5 to Albany on the PIVA and WAA associated with the occlusion. Round 2 would also be in the 3-5 range with the developing coastal though I did say that how much moisture it threw back west was uncertain and also the dry wedge coming in from the west associated with the occluding primary. Also shadowing on the front thump will impact snowfall amounts w/ round 1 thus that is why I cut back on the initial surge across the HV and points east. Already 2.0" on the ground here near Albany. I think the 3-5" tonight has a good chance of verifying based on the latest radar. BTW, I think you have me confused with OSUmetstud. I'll probably be changing my name soon though anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Already 2.0" on the ground here near Albany. I think the 3-5" tonight has a good chance of verifying based on the latest radar. BTW, I think you have me confused with OSUmetstud. I'll probably be changing my name soon though anyway. Ooops ypu're right. My bad senility strikes after 55 years. :-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 WSW for 5"-8" here. Nice storm for at least the eastern 1/2 of NY. But of course the big show will be in New England. Again. Well, check that (at least in MBY). Got a whopping 2.1" of snow overnight. I'll trade this crap for the 80° weather we had last year at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 19, 2013 Author Share Posted March 19, 2013 We have about 3.75" inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Four inches here but definitely some taint overnight as there is an ice layer just under the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 7 inches here in Queensbury at 7:30 when I headed out plowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Really ripping here. Snowing the hardest I've seen this winter. Looks like another 45 minutes of this then the front is through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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