BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 12-18 inches across northern Texas, truly a historic storm there. Not to mention 50-60+ MPH winds http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/600/currenti.png/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 How much is it showing? 4-8 inches. Surface temps and elevation going to be critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 This time of the year, elevation always helps. Guidance is certainly better for ALB, minus a stiff east wind. Albany doesn't get shadowed nearly as much as some think (that goes to just east in parts of Washington and Rensselaer counties) but there could be some here until the winds shift a bit. This could be big for the escarpment west of ALB. Strong easterly upslope. I know us ENYers have had it rough for a few years. I still don't love the setup for valley locations even with some colder guidance (CMC, Euro) coming out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 4-8 inches. Surface temps and elevation going to be critical. Since this is pretty much within 48hr range,i wouldn't be surprised if BUF issues a winter storm watch this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 This time of the year, elevation always helps. Guidance is certainly better for ALB, minus a stiff east wind. Albany doesn't get shadowed nearly as much as some think (that goes to just east in parts of Washington and Rensselaer counties) but there could be some here until the winds shift a bit. I think you're right the west side vs. the east side of the Hudson. I've seen cases where ALB did fine, and others where the effects were significant. When the low level easterly jet is really strong, it seems like the effect gets further west. Dec 1992 will always be in the back of my mind. It's the marginal wet snow cases that enhance the dispartity the most, with a little warming in the valleys and cooling in the high terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Latest NAM just transferred to coastal and makes it predominant low pressure MUCH faster then previous runs. Keeps it cold here and under deformation band for quite awhile. Surface temps still look rather marginally though, going to be a close call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 This storm is going to be highly elevation driven and those living along the lake shore will receive little from this. Drove out to Boston Hills yesterday and they had a foot of snow on the ground while here at my location we had like 2. Crazy what a few miles will do. Unless we can get some insane rates of precipitation it is going to be a tough task to cool down the atmosphere with the warm air advection. Going to be an EXTREMELY close call for WNY. I would feel much more confidenct if I was about 20 miles northwest of Hamilton for the bulls eye in this on. Either that or 1500+ ft elevation.yep I drove to Springville yesterday and inbetween Boston and the town of Springville there was still a solid 16-18" on the ground snd everything was just pasted with snow. Gonna be taking a trip through the Boston Hills above 1600ft for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 yep I drove to Springville yesterday and inbetween Boston and the town of Springville there was still a solid 16-18" on the ground snd everything was just pasted with snow. Gonna be taking a trip through the Boston Hills above 1600ft for this event. So weird how you need elevation to get snow here while Texas and Oklahoma have gotten 1-2 feet in 2 storms in the last week! Crazy weather patthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Since this is pretty much within 48hr range,i wouldn't be surprised if BUF issues a winter storm watch this afternoon. They did, but for parts of the Southern Tier. Too many concerns about precipitation type for them to jump the gun for Metro Buffalo/lower elevations. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY319 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013NYZ012-020-021-260430-/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0002.130226T2300Z-130227T1600Z/WYOMING-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE319 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAYMORNING.* LOCATIONS...CATTARAUGUS...ALLEGANY...WYOMING COUNTIES. GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.* TIMING...EARLY TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.* HAZARDS...HEAVY WET SNOW AND SLEET.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 6 INCHES OR MORE.* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.* IMPACTS...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY RESULT IN VERY SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THE WET SNOW MAY WEIGH DOWN TREES AND POWERLINES AND RESULT IN SOME MINOR DAMAGE.* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE. IF MORE RAIN AND SLEET MIX IN...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 kalb IT WILL BE DIFFICULTTO ATTAIN WARNING LEVEL SNOWS USING A 24-HOUR CRITERIA. SO WILL HOLDOFF ON ISSUING ANY WATCHES FOR NOW...EXPECTING MORE OF AN ADVISORYEVENT. HOWEVER...THIS COULD CHANGE AS THE EVENT NEARS AND GUIDANCEBECOMES MORE CLEAR. Snow map http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/Snow_PNS/StormTotalSnowWebFcst.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 They did, but for parts of the Southern Tier. Too many concerns about precipitation type for them to jump the gun for Metro Buffalo/lower elevations.gonna be heading to Ellicottville Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Amarillo 20 inches of snow with wind gust to 75 mph. Now thats a storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Yeah, next storm is one of those cases where the entire region (outside of the hills) may be downsloped, not just the traditional areas. Logan11 in Knox should do very well however if levels stay cool enough. A couple hi-res maps showed KALB with no precipitation at all, which is obviously overdoing it a bit, haha. Dec 1992 is the extreme example obviously...I happened to be living in the CT hills at the time, but valley areas in CT suffered too. NWS Albany has a wide swatch of 2-4 for most of the area which seems OK, but they may be overdoing the amount of rain that falls...we'll see. I think you're right the west side vs. the east side of the Hudson. I've seen cases where ALB did fine, and others where the effects were significant. When the low level easterly jet is really strong, it seems like the effect gets further west. Dec 1992 will always be in the back of my mind. It's the marginal wet snow cases that enhance the dispartity the most, with a little warming in the valleys and cooling in the high terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I've done that Orchard Park/Hamburg drive to Boston Hills many times. It's really amazing how weather can be so different from a small distance. I don't see the hope you guys are seeing for lower elevations here. Even the Euro would be nearly all liquid for us on Wed morning. I'd rather not have another cement event anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Changing up my plans based on latest models and WIVB hi res models showing the heaviest snow from Warsaw to Mt Morris here in WNY. Will be heading directly that way tomorrow night instead of Ellicottville. Will try to gets pics and vids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 gonna watch this one close in rochester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 the 0z nam was much warmer for roc. going from an 1inch of precip all in form of snow down to .5 all in snow. so 12" was the 18z and only 3 or 4 according to the new one. 21z sref is colder than the 15 sref. who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 the 0z nam was much warmer for roc. going from an 1inch of precip all in form of snow down to .5 all in snow. so 12" was the 18z and only 3 or 4 according to the new one. 21z sref is colder than the 15 sref. who knows? No model was ever all in the form of snow for Rochester. Be lucky to get a few inches out of this one in a place with lower elevation such as yours. Your looking at 850 mb temperatures, need to check out temperatures throughout the atmosphere to get a better picture. If precip is intense enough we may get a few hours of intense heavy snow, but I wouldn't count on it unless above 1500 Feet or somewhere in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Changing up my plans based on latest models and WIVB hi res models showing the heaviest snow from Warsaw to Mt Morris here in WNY. Will be heading directly that way tomorrow night instead of Ellicottville. Will try to gets pics and vids. Yeah that looks like the best spot in WNY in terms of getting any decent accumulation going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Yeah that looks like the best spot in WNY in terms of getting any decent accumulation going. It would be a miracle if we get anything more than 2" out of this one lol,latest model runs trended a little bit warmer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 i knew roc was never getting all snow. but the profile of the 18z showed 1" of precip snow, .07 as rain. the latest nam shows .5 snow, .7 rain. maybe the way i put it earlier was a bit difficult to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 can someone answer this for me, sometimes when i post, it directly posts to the site. half of the time, my post gets recorded? and then not posted or posted later, what am i doing wrong. and it is all just text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 can someone answer this for me, sometimes when i post, it directly posts to the site. half of the time, my post gets recorded? and then not posted or posted later, what am i doing wrong. and it is all just text. Hmm what browser are you using? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 can someone answer this for me, sometimes when i post, it directly posts to the site. half of the time, my post gets recorded? and then not posted or posted later, what am i doing wrong. and it is all just text. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/forum/16-forum-information-help/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/forum/16-forum-information-help/ i use um, i don't even know. windows 7 is operating system. browser is internet explorer something. i so much prefer my iphone vs this outdated laptop. but as yu know, looking at maps on an iphone sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 kalb latest snowfall forecast http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/Snow_PNS/StormTotalSnowWebFcst.png AS OF 430 AM...WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT THROUGHEARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR OUR EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREENSAND BERKSHIRES.OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A SHADE COLDER...AT LEAST THROUGHTHE COLUMN. THE EUROPEAN MODEL STILL WAS THE COLDEST BUT EVEN IF WEBLEND THEM...THERE IS CONCERN THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD ACCUMULATEIN THE WATCH AREAS. ALSO...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG ESE WIND...REACHINGUP TO 65KTS AT THE H850 LEVEL...AND 40TS AT THE H925...COULD PRODUCEENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS RATHER STRONG GUSTY WINDS.THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND...SNOW...MIXED WITH SLEET AND PERHAPS ALITTLE FREEZING RAIN...COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES INTHESE AREAS.LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS HAS ALREADY PRODUCED A LEGACY OFWINTER WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAIN...THE SECOND BLIZZARD INABOUT A WEEK!THIS LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AS IT ENCOUNTERSSOMEWHAT COLDER AIR AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST...ITWILL "SPLIT" INTO TWO PIECES OF ENERGY...ONE WHICH WILL SLOWLYMEANDER INTO NEW YORK STATE BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY LOWPRESSURE WILL FORM ACROSS INTERIOR VA BY THIS EVENING...THEN TRACKALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.THIS SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BRING THE FIRST ROUND OFPRECIPITATION TO THE REGION BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING. A STRONGLOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING AN EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG U COMPONENT UP TO 5STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.THIS WILL DRAW PWAT VALUES OF NEARLY AN INCH (TWO STANDARDS ABOVENORMAL) TOWARD OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.STRONG UPWARD MOTION LOOKS TO KEEP THE COLUMN COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLYSNOW ACROSS AT LEAST THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THECATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. THE DEEP MOISTURE DOESNOT LOOK TO MAKE IT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS SO WHILE IT WILL BESLIGHTLY COLDER THERE...SNOWFALL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ENOUGH TOJUSTIFY A WATCH.NORTH/SOUTH VALLEYS LOOK TO HAVE SOME SORT OF SHADOWING...AS THE ESEWIND WILL RESULT IN SOME DOWNSLOPING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAYMORNING...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW DOES NOT LOOK PERFECTLY ORTHOGONAL TOTHE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...WE BELIEVE THERE WILL SOMEMINIMIZATION OF THE QPF IN THESE AREAS. ALSO...THIS DOWNSLOPINGWOULD SERVE TO WARM THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE COLUMN (NAMELY THESURFACE) A BIT.FOR THESE REASONS...WE DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF SNOW IN THE VALLEYSDESPITE THE FACT THE SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOSTLY SNOW COULD FALL EVENIN PLACES NORTH OF KINGSTON.HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THE SNOW...POTENTIALLY HEAVIEST AS WE HEADTOWARD THE MORNING DRIVE ON WEDNESDAY...COULD NEVERTHELESS IMPACTTRAVEL AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW...NO ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BUTSOMETHING TO MONITOR.LATER WEDNESDAY...AS SECONDARY LOW MOVES TO OUR EAST...THERE LOOKSTO BE A TIME WHERE DRIER AIR INTRUDES THE MID LEVELS OF THEATMOSPHERE. THIS DRYING WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH FOR ANYCLEARING...BUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CLOUDS COULD LOOSE THEIR ICEBY AFTERNOON...REDUCING PRECIPITATION TO LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE OR INTHE CASE OF THE MOUNTAINS...A LIGHT WINTRY MIX.TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT FROM THE MID 20S HIGHERTERRAIN TO LOWER 30S MOST OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. THEYSHOULD SLOWLY RISE TO NEAR 40 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO PERHAPS MID30S HIGHER TERRAIN.THEN...BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE PLAINSSTORM...MAINLY AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...WILL NEVERTHELESS INTERACTWITH SLOWLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PUSHING NEAR CAPE COD AT THISPOINT EVENTUALLY FORCING IT TO BECOME STACKED. THIS WILL PRODUCESOME SORT OF DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION...LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TOUPSLOPE AGAINST HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR THIS REASON...WE EXTENDED THEWINTER STORM WATCH AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULDACCUMULATE ACROSS THE CATSKILLS/SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. ANINCH OR TWO COULD CERTAINLY ACCUMULATE IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WELL.TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AT OR A BIT BELOWFREEZING.RIGHT NOW...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AT LEAST 6-12 INCHES OF SNOWACROSS THE WATCH AREA....MIXED WITH A SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.AT THIS TIME...THERMAL PROFILES DID NOT INDICATE AN EXTENDED PERIODOF FREEZING RAIN...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL REMOTELY POSSIBLE. THE SNOWLOOKS TO BE OF THE WET VARIETY...PROBABLY NOT MUCH DRIFTING BUT ITWILL BE HEAVY. FACTOR THAT WITH PROJECTED WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 40MPH AT TIMES...COULD BRING SOME TREES AND WIRES DOWN...PERHAPSLEADING TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.WIND WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...INCLUDINGTHE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...RIGHT NOW WE BELIEVE WIND GUSTS SHOULDFALL SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA (58 MPH)...PERHAPS REACHING WINDADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF GUSTS TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH. SINCE THAT ISTHE CASE...WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ONE MORE PERIOD TO SEE IFADVISORIES WILL REALLY BE NEEDED. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THISPOSSIBILITY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE ADIRONDACKS...SNOWFALL LOOKS TO RANGEFROM 2 TO 6 INCHES...HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY. THESE VALUES COULDREACH ADVISORY THRESHOLDS IN SOME CASES...BUT AGAIN...DECIDED NOTTO HEADLINE ANY ADVISORIES YET.THURSDAY WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH LEFTOVER LIGHTERPRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS IN THEVALLEYS...OR MAINLY MOUNTAIN SNOW AS THE LARGE STACKED STORM SLOWLYDRIFTS TO THE GULF OF MAINE. AT THIS POINT...ADDITIONALPRECIPITATIONS AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT ON THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPSONEEXCEPTION...SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE SNOWFALL COULD BECOME MOREENHANCED. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REACH 40-45 IN THE HUDSONVALLEY...WHILE HOLDING IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHERTERRAIN. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ALY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 urgh, another slopfest with CNY in a big fat dry slot. Can't win this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Youngstown should be the winner in WNY imo....elevations of the southern tier aren't going to help much with 850s at or just above 0c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 Today's actually one of the nicer days we've had recently, 32F now and sunny. I'm thinking we'll see 1-3" here tomorrow. Maybe someone in WNY will do a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 i use um, i don't even know. windows 7 is operating system. browser is internet explorer something. i so much prefer my iphone vs this outdated laptop. but as yu know, looking at maps on an iphone sucks. Are you using the mobile theme? i use that on my iPhone and have no problems,there is actually an app called "weathergeek pro" on app store that lets you view model runs on your iphone.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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