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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Spring 2013

heavy_wx

By heavy_wx,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

KALB

 

 

 

POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TO START OUT THE EXTENDEDPERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD AND CLOUDY WEATHERWITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING AMONGSTMEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMAFFECTING EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEPERIOD.SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAYNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE SYSTEM BUT SYSTEM HASSLOWED DOWN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS SO PRECIPITATION FROM SYSTEMMORE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TOSUGGEST THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW ORRAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.00Z GFS/EURO LEAN TOWARD SNOW AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 850MBBRINGS A 6-12 HOUR BURST OF INTENSE PRECIPITATION TO OURAREA...WHILE MAIN SURFACE FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE ALY FORECASTAREA. POSITION OF SFC HIGH/LOW SUGGEST LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND DOWNHUDSON VALLEY WHICH WOULD KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOWWHILE PRECIPITATION IS HEAVIEST. BY THE TIME WARMER AIR ARRIVESALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TAKES PLACE...MOSTOF PRECIPITATION IS OVER.IF MOSTLY RAIN SHOULD FALL...THE COMBINATION OF AN INCH OR SO OFRAIN AND SOME SNOW MELT COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODPROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY SINCE GROUND IS STILL FROZEN.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ALY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

Hpc favoring uk/euro blend

 

 

 

PACIFIC SYSTEM REACHING THE NORTHWESTERN STATES TONIGHT...
...SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY
NIGHT...

PREFERENCE: UKMET/ECMWF BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS LIE WITHIN THE SPREAD ENCOMPASSING THE
RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY CROSSES THE ROCKIES AND EXITS TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY THE NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST
WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL
BNDRY/UPPER-LVL LOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/EASTERN U.S. ON
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE NAM AND GFS DEPICT A SLIGHTLY WEAKER
SURFACE LOW RELATIVE TO THE NON-NCEP GUIDANCE. THE SURFACE LOW
THAT DEVELOPS IS SIMILAR BETWEEN THE UKMET AND ECMWF...AND BOTH
ARE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.

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heavy_wx

heavy_wx

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LOL @ 0Z GFS,it shows almost a foot of snow for kbuf  :lmao:

 

Looks like it has snow at the onset of precipitation and then again after the profile cools below freezing. It will be interesting to see how quickly the change back to snow occurs. The GFS still shows mostly rain for CNY with maybe a few inches into Thursday evening before the dry slot reaches the area.

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ayuud11

ayuud11

Posted
Posted

Looks like it has snow at the onset of precipitation and then again after the profile cools below freezing. It will be interesting to see how quickly the change back to snow occurs. The GFS still shows mostly rain for CNY with maybe a few inches into Thursday evening before the dry slot reaches the area.

Will be interesting to see what the euro shows.

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

Uk

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

 

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

 

 

ggem

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/00zggem850mbTSLPp06054.gif

 

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/00zggem850mbTSLPp06060.gif

 

Euro

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPNA072.gif

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
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Kalb

 

 

 


THEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS AS IF A LARGE STORM WILLAPPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM PROMISES TOBRING PRECIPITATION OUR WAY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.HOWEVER...AS WE HAVE SEEN MANY TIMES THIS WINTER...THERE WILL BE ASPLIT IN THE ENERGY OF THE SYSTEM...AS THE PRIMARY LOW MOVES SLOWLYNORTHWARD TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE IT WILL LIKELYBECOME "STACKED" AND SLOW DOWN OR EVEN STALLED FOR AWHILE.MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA MIGHT FORM DOWN ACROSS THEMID ATLANTIC AND HEAD UP ALONG...OR NEAR THE COAST.THESE TYPE OF SCENARIOS ALWAYS PROVE CHALLENGING...DETERMINING HOWMUCH PRECIPITATION WILL ULTIMATELY FALL. THIS DUE TO THE TIMING OFHOW FAST THE SECONDARY LOW WOULD FORM...ITS ULTIMATE TRACK...AND THEPOTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO ANEASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE WIND FIELD.ALSO...THE THERMAL PROFILES INDICATED A CLOSE CALL BETWEENSNOW/SLEET/FREEZING AND EVEN LIQUID RAIN. THE 00Z/006Z NAM MODELSWERE THE WARMEST SOLUTIONS...IMPLYING A LOT OF LIQUID RAIN...ATLEAST FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. THE ECMWF WAS THE COLDESTSOLUTION...IMPLYING MOSTLY...IF NOT ALL SNOW FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.WE BELIEVE THE ANSWER LIES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN AND THAT IS THESOLUTION WE OFFERED.THE FIRST SURGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE FIRST SHOT OFISENTROPIC LIFT TUESDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS MIGHTBE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE HIGHERTERRAIN...PRECIPITATING LOOKS TO BE MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW AND EVENFREEZING RAIN. OUT THINKING IS THAT THE COLUMN WILL BRIEFLY COOL TOSUPPORT ALL SNOW (OR SNOW MIXED WITH SLEET) EVERYWHERE NORTH OFKINGSTON OVERNIGHT DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING. EVEN THE CAPITALREGION...ALONG WITH MANY OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP ASMALL ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL. HILLTOWNS COULD AND WILL LIKELY DOBETTER...PERHAPS RECEIVING A MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY SNOWFALL.AN EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT FOR AWHILE COULD MEAN PRECIPITATIONSHADOWING POSSIBLE IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AS EASTERLY WIND WOULDPRODUCE DOWNSLOPING...DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE COLUMNOUT...AND THEREBY REDUCING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.MOST MODELS SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED A "WARM NOSE" IN THE SOUNDING WHICHWOULD LIKELY MEAN A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THEHIGHER TERRAIN (AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR BELOWFREEZING). THIS WOULD TAKE PLACE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE APOTENTIAL FOR A SMALL COATING OF ICE AS WELL...MAINLY OVER THEHIGHER TERRAIN.  WEDNESDAY WOULD BE THE TIME THE THE SECONDARY LOWCOULD DEVELOP (EVEN THAT IS NOT ETCHED IN STONE). IF THIS WERE THECASE...THE MEAN WIND WOULD BACK INTO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST...ANDSOME PRECIPITATION COULD CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THANKS TO ADEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP AND LOW PRESSURE RIDGE OFF THECOAST...BUT INTERACTS WITH UPWARD MOTION FROM THE UPPER AIR LOWSTILL PARKED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO NUDGE UP ABOVE FREEZING (AS WARMAS AROUND 40 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY)...THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THECOLUMN WILL ACTUALLY COOL A BIT. SO THE QUESTION IS...WILL THE COLDAIR ADVECTION DOMINATE KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION (OR SWITCHING BACK)BACK TO SNOW? OR...WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE TO WARM THECOLUMN...OR AT THE VERY LEAST...KEEP THE LOWER LAYERS WARM ENOUGHFOR MOSTLY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO REALLY ANSWER THIS QUESTION. BUT FOR ALLTHESE REASONS/CONCERNS...THIS FORECAST IS A BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCEFORECAST AT THIS POINT. FOR THIS REASON...PER COLLABORATION WITHSURROUNDING OFFICE...IT WAS STRONGLY DECIDED THAT NO WATCHES WOULDBE ISSUED YET FOR THIS STORM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESTORM IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO).AT THE VERY LEAST...MOST OF US SHOULD PLAN FOR SOME SNOW BYWEDNESDAY MORNING...MORE NORTH...LESS SOUTH. THE SNOW COULD BE MIXEDWITH SOME FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELYTRANSITION FROM A MIX TO ALL RAIN TO ABOUT ALBANY SOUTHWARD LATERWEDNESDAY...BUT POSSIBLY REMAIN A MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ANDVALLEY LOCATIONS WELL NORTH OF ALBANY.
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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

This storm is going to be highly elevation driven and those living along the lake shore will receive little from this. Drove out to Boston Hills yesterday and they had a foot of snow on the ground while here at my location we had like 2. Crazy what a few miles will do. Unless we can get some insane rates of precipitation it is going to be a tough task to cool down the atmosphere with the warm air advection. Going to be an EXTREMELY close call for WNY. I would feel much more confidenct if I was about 20 miles northwest of Hamilton for the bulls eye in this on. Either that or 1500+ ft elevation.

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ayuud11

ayuud11

Posted
Posted

This storm is going to be highly elevation driven and those living along the lake shore will receive little from this. Drove out to Boston Hills yesterday and they had a foot of snow on the ground while here at my location we had like 2. Crazy what a few miles will do. Unless we can get some insane rates of precipitation it is going to be a tough task to cool down the atmosphere with the warm air advection. Going to be an EXTREMELY close call for WNY. I would feel much more confidenct if I was about 20 miles northwest of Hamilton for the bulls eye in this on. Either that or 1500+ ft elevation.

NWS BUF Should issue a winter storm watch for 0-8" haha! :snowing:

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heavy_wx

heavy_wx

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Posted

What is your current thinking on snowfall amounts?

 

It's pretty tough to say now. The forecast is highly dependent on the thermal profile. The Euro and the GFS are actually in decent agreement with the track of the surface low and 500 mb vorticity max, up until around 00z Wednesday. The secondary development of the low is a bit farther east on the Euro which would allow for greater cold air advection into WNY and CNY. However, this will weaken the primary low more because there will be less warm air advection ahead of the low and weaker vorticity advection aloft. A weaker primary low will decrease the banding potential somewhat as there will be weaker deformation/frontogenesis.

 

The 12z GFS actually has some decent 850/750 mb  frontogenesis around 18z Wednesday co-located with some heavier precip, suggesting some banding. I can't look at any frontogenesis fields on the Euro but it seems to have a weaker deformation field at 850 mb. Right now I would side with the Euro since I think its higher resolution simulates cold air damming along the Appalachians better. This causes the secondary low to develop a little farther east of the GFS.

 

I think the places that have the greatest chance of seeing at least 3" are parts of WNY, especially areas closer to Lake Ontario. These locations should be somewhat colder to start and may be in a better position for banding. QPF right now looks to be lighter in CNY with a greater chance of mixing or changing to rain, although I think WNY sees some mixing/rain as well. We'll have to see what the upcoming model runs show.

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ayuud11

ayuud11

Posted
Posted

Would be cool to get a heavy wet snow pasting event though! Haven't had one of those in ages it seems.

Next week definitely colder,so anything that falls will stick for a while..

 

It's pretty tough to say now. The forecast is highly dependent on the thermal profile. The Euro and the GFS are actually in decent agreement with the track of the surface low and 500 mb vorticity max, up until around 00z Wednesday. The secondary development of the low is a bit farther east on the Euro which would allow for greater cold air advection into WNY and CNY. However, this will weaken the primary low more because there will be less warm air advection ahead of the low and weaker vorticity advection aloft. A weaker primary low will decrease the banding potential somewhat as there will be weaker deformation/frontogenesis.

 

The 12z GFS actually has some decent 850/750 mb  frontogenesis around 18z Wednesday co-located with some heavier precip, suggesting some banding. I can't look at any frontogenesis fields on the Euro but it seems to have a weaker deformation field at 850 mb. Right now I would side with the Euro since I think its higher resolution simulates cold air damming along the Appalachians better. This causes the secondary low to develop a little farther east of the GFS.

 

I think the places that have the greatest chance of seeing at least 3" are parts of WNY, especially areas closer to Lake Ontario. These locations should be somewhat colder to start and may be in a better position for banding. QPF right now looks to be lighter in CNY with a greater chance of mixing or changing to rain, although I think WNY sees some mixing/rain as well. We'll have to see what the upcoming model runs show.

Alright,Thanks for the update.

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ayuud11

ayuud11

Posted
Posted

WOW! GEM has been on the warmer sides of things lately as well, definitely going to be fun to watch this one play out.

LOL that area near lake Ontario shoreline must be up to 60" by now,they are doing really good this year with lake effect+synoptic storms..

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

Quite hilarious 3 inches of QPF right over KBuf, pretty hilarious. Definitely overblown!

The GFS has a max near Buf too, but it's more like 1.5 - 2", which is more reasonable.  Quick look at soundings and overall synoptic features would suggest a lot of sleet mixed in.  Hopefully dynamics win out.

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