heavy_wx Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 Band is almost right over you and seems to be drifting a tad south. Take some pics! Moderate snow right now with about an inch on the ground. The band may only move a bit further south through 19z based on the 850 mb winds from the latest HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 that thing at day 6.5 as the upper level low cuts underneath us is something to keep an eye on. Airmass is tough but it turns into a wet snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 lake erie produced surprisingly well last night even given the issues of shear, ice cover, and marginal delta Ts. 13" in Springville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 Moderate snow and blowing snow right now with visibility down to a few hundred feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 that thing at day 6.5 as the upper level low cuts underneath us is something to keep an eye on. Airmass is tough but it turns into a wet snow bomb. Did you see the latest GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 About 3" on the ground now. Here's picture of some moderate snow and wind with police surrounding an accident, the second one I've seen today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 It's been horrible in Oswego all day... there is a accident on 104 heading west right now. Freaking wind is awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Any thoughts on the weekend low and its potential impacts on eastern NY? Thinking about a day trip on Saturday for my son-in-law's birthday down to Westchester and I'm wondering what I may encounter on the thruway heading back north Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 2.8" here. Report of 20" in Westdale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 2.8" here. Report of 20" in Westdale About 4" total here with some light snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Any thoughts on the weekend low and its potential impacts on eastern NY? Thinking about a day trip on Saturday for my son-in-law's birthday down to Westchester and I'm wondering what I may encounter on the thruway heading back north Saturday night. 1-4"....depending on elevation....best mid-level dynamics slides off to the east and southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It seems to me, based on what I am seeing long range from both the GFS and the European, that the Wed-Thur. time frame next week could get interesting. Anyone looking 6 days out and seeing that potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Just got back from a trip to Elmira and it was awesome. Left Tuesday at 6pm and took route 20A from here all the way to Mount Morris. Between Wales and Warsaw was horrible. Literally the worst driving Ive ever experienced. It was a total whiteout most the time. Had to put the hazards on and pull over at least a dozen times between Wales and Warsaw. The snow lightened up from Warsaw to Mount Morris but then got extremely heavy again from Mount Morris to Dansville on the 390. It was decent after Dansville until we got to Bath where it then got pretty bad again until Corning. It was my first time to Elmira and to whoever lives near there, its a beautiful place! I loved everything about it. The hills there have a different feel than the hills here in WNY. Anyway coming back this morning was much better than driving to Elmira on Tuesday evening. We did hit a very heavy band of snow with what seemed like a sheet of ice under the snow on the 390 before Dansville. We actually saw about 7 or 8 accidents so we decided to get off which was a very smart idea. Anyways It was a great trip to south central NY and cant wait to come back! BTW loved Arnot Mall to anyone whos ever been there. Its better than most of the malls here in Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 The long range pattern is starting to show some potential for some strong blocking over the North Atlantic. Here are the latest CPC analogs for the 8-14 day time frame. The analogs have an anomaly pattern that is almost the exact negative of the NAO EOF, meaning the pattern shows a stout negative NAO. The positive anomaly pattern shown in the analog composite is slightly southwest of the negative anomaly in the EOF, which would make the NAO slightly less negative. The extended range of the GFS and Euro both show a heavily blocked pattern as well with the potential for a coastal low to retrograde into eastern Canada. This all suggest that there may be some support for an extended period of lake effect in the long range. We'll have to see how the models depict this pattern in the upcoming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It seems to me, based on what I am seeing long range from both the GFS and the European, that the Wed-Thur. time frame next week could get interesting. Anyone looking 6 days out and seeing that potential? Maybe an elevation driven event? BUF mentions potential for 1"+ of qpf next week, but seem to be leaning towards a rain/snow mix. Temps don't appear cold enough for any meaningful lake effect/enhancement, at least through the middle of next week. In any event, after the first ten days of the month it looked promising for BUF to post a 30" Feb. However, only 1.5" at BUF in the last 10 days and stuck at 18.8" for the month. REGARDLESS OF THIS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...ALL OF THIS SHOULDULTIMATELY BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA FORTHE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD...WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIALFOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AMOUNTS /I.E. THOSE OF ONE INCH OR HIGHER/ ATSOME POINT GIVEN WHAT SHOULD BE AN INFLUX OF PLENTIFUL ATLANTICMOISTURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. ACCORDINGLY...WILLINDICATE A FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER CHANCE TO EVEN SOME LOWLIKELY POPS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. IN TERMS OF PTYPE...TEMPS LOOK TOBE RATHER MARGINAL THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO FOR NOWWILL JUST INDICATE A GENERAL RAIN/SNOW MIX...WITH THE EXACT PTYPESAT ANY GIVEN TIME DEPENDENT UPON THE POINT IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Maybe an elevation driven event? BUF mentions potential for 1"+ of qpf next week, but seem to be leaning towards a rain/snow mix. Temps don't appear cold enough for any meaningful lake effect/enhancement, at least through the middle of next week. In any event, after the first ten days of the month it looked promising for BUF to post a 30" Feb. However, only 1.5" at BUF in the last 10 days and stuck at 18.8" for the month. REGARDLESS OF THIS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...ALL OF THIS SHOULD ULTIMATELY BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD...WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AMOUNTS /I.E. THOSE OF ONE INCH OR HIGHER/ AT SOME POINT GIVEN WHAT SHOULD BE AN INFLUX OF PLENTIFUL ATLANTIC MOISTURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. ACCORDINGLY...WILL INDICATE A FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER CHANCE TO EVEN SOME LOW LIKELY POPS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. IN TERMS OF PTYPE...TEMPS LOOK TO BE RATHER MARGINAL THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST INDICATE A GENERAL RAIN/SNOW MIX...WITH THE EXACT PTYPES AT ANY GIVEN TIME DEPENDENT UPON THE POINT IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE. prob nothing significant for anyone below 1000-1200 feet. Looks like a dull dreary mostly damp not white pattern upcoming for most of us living under the 1600' elevation. Yawn. Please bring on spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 prob nothing significant for anyone below 1000-1200 feet. Looks like a dull dreary mostly damp not white pattern upcoming for most of us living under the 1600' elevation. Yawn. Please bring on spring. If you're hoping for spring,Don't look at the 0z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Decent burst of snow here over the last hour. Closing in on an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Picked up about a half an inch here today now its just cloudy and a bit breezy. This whole week looks like nothing more than some rain possibly mixed with snow at times, at least here. Seriously bring on spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 And the week after looks the same. And if the Euro weeklies verify, oh man. This is the worst. At least be cold enough for some LES and accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 boy, u guys seem miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 It's been alternating between wet snow and a rain/snow mix here all morning. I've got about 1/4 inch of very wet snow on my deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 This winter is earning a solid D here in central NY. It would be an F if we hadn't just lived through last winter which demonstrated just how much worse things can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 boy, u guys seem miserable. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...850MB WINDS TO 65KNOTS...ARRIVING JUST AFTER THE LEADING PRECIP. WHILE SURFACE WINDSWILL BECOME GUSTY WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...ATEMPERATURE INVERSION ALOFT SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE HIGHER WINDS FROMMIXING TO THE SURFACE. THE STRENGTH OF THIS JET WILL HELP WITHFORCING OF THE PRECIPITATION THOUGH SO EXPECT RAIN OR SNOW RATES TOBE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A SHORT COUPLE HOURS IN THEAFTERNOON/EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS WARM FRONT. BUFKIT SHOWSSTRONG OMEGA LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND UP PAST 15KFT WHERE ITMEETS THE PRIME SNOW GROWTH ZONE. AGAIN SURFACE TEMPS HERE WILL BEKEY WITH RAIN VS SNOW/WINTRY MIX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 The euro/euro ens/ggem/ggem ens/uk all look better then the gfs/gfs ens for this tue storm..I still think there is a decent chance of a front end thump before any changer over to rn/drz/dryslot..Still several days left to sort this mess out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 The 0z Nam sure looks like a major front end dump for higher elevations in CNY for Tuesday night. Could it be a trend? I sure hope so. We are due!!! Colder at 850mb and lots of precip, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 The 0z Nam sure looks like a major front end dump for higher elevations in CNY for Tuesday night. Could it be a trend? I sure hope so. We are due!!! Colder at 850mb and lots of precip, I am really liking the quicker transfer to the coastal low that has been showing up in latest model trends, lets hope it continues as we need a few more runs to keep showing this a bit faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Ggem pops a 2ndry in norther va then moves NNW through lake ontario, uk has a 999mb lp just off the coast of nj,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 The 0z Nam sure looks like a major front end dump for higher elevations in CNY for Tuesday night. Could it be a trend? I sure hope so. We are due!!! Colder at 850mb and lots of precip, The 00z NAM has warmer layer around 900 mb that keeps most of the precip as rain. Its depiction of the dynamics of the primary low are probably too strong and may be decreasing low-level temperatures over CNY too much as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 The 00z NAM has warmer layer around 900 mb that keeps most of the precip as rain. Its depiction of the dynamics of the primary low are probably too strong and may be decreasing low-level temperatures over CNY too much as well. From Buf. ".THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE...AS THE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR THIS PACKAGE...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD TO THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUN WITH INCREASING SUPPORT FROM THE GFS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE UNDERGOING AN OCCLUSION PROCESS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WEAKENING PROCESS WOULD OFTEN SIGNAL THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WANING...HOWEVER A WELL DEFINED CONVEYOR OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BE WORKING INTO THE NORTHERN OR COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. MID TROPOSPHERIC DEFORMATION ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE EXCELLENT WITHIN A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW. THE STRONG DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS A RAIN DUE TO THE LATE DAYTIME ARRIVAL...ALTHOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD BECOME PROBLEMATIC ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER. CONCERNS ARISE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AT SUFFICIENT RATES TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT DIABATIC COOLING OF LOWER LAYERS ALLOWING FOR A GREATER RISK FOR SNOW. HEAVY SNOW NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME AREAS AS A WELL DEFINED TROWAL FEATURE EVOLVES. HOWEVER...TOP CIPS ANALOGS WERE SHOWING GREATEST SUPPORT FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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