Logan11 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 2 degrees here now! It looks like quite a mess here in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Rather large shift from 00z to 06z on the GFS for this weekend!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Rather large shift from 00z to 06z on the GFS for this weekend!!! 6z gfs is a weenie run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Starting to get some clearing skies here, with a temperature of 43F. It will be interesting to see how much warmer we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I do think the general pattern for the weekend does support some storminess. While something like the 06/12z gfs has is not out of the relm of possibilities...I think the PNA ridge out west is a bit too progressive to allow a shortwave to dig in the general longwave pattern and produce a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I do think the general pattern for the weekend does support some storminess. While something like the 06/12z gfs has is not out of the relm of possibilities...I think the PNA ridge out west is a bit too progressive to allow a shortwave to dig in the general longwave pattern and produce a big storm. It looks like the 12z models are agreeing with that assessment as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 well, it looked like winter around here for...2 days or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I do think the general pattern for the weekend does support some storminess. While something like the 06/12z gfs has is not out of the relm of possibilities...I think the PNA ridge out west is a bit too progressive to allow a shortwave to dig in the general longwave pattern and produce a big storm. Agree very much. It seems that the only way we get the solution that most of us want, is to have the impulse dig "a bit" deeper than current consensus, and for more norther stream energy to become involved into the backside of the trough before the axis reaches the longitude of the Miss. river. Obviously some of those details are tied in with the kicker behind all of this (and its strength, orientation, etc.) I'm hopeful that the previous solutions the Euro was putting out a few days ago come back as the main driver (the s/w rounding the west coast ridge tomorrow night into Wed) gets better sampled....ie hoping ther is some merit to the Euro losing a storm due to a weaker initialization when over the ocean. But hopeful is not the same as optimistic!! The northern hemispheric water vapor loops don't lie....right now, things are pretty progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 BTW, I'm thinking the triple point of Jefferson, Lewis, and Oswego Counties (ie W. Tug Hill upslope region) will pick up over 18" over the next 2 days. And if the 850's can verify a degree or two colder vs. current progs....then double that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 February will already go down above normal in the snowfall department in BUF...up to 17.6" now. Normal is 17.4". We've had 4 30"+ Februarys since 1940...we have as good of a chance as any to hit that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 February will already go down above normal in the snowfall department in BUF...up to 17.6" now. Normal is 17.4". We've had 4 30"+ Februarys since 1940...we have as good of a chance as any to hit that. It has to make up for last month when the airport received 6.2 inches of snow in what is normally the snowiest month for Buffalo. Only 88-89 and 43-44 had less snow than what was received last month. You seeing anything of promise for the next few weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 From DT's facebook page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It has to make up for last month when the airport received 6.2 inches of snow in what is normally the snowiest month for Buffalo. Only 88-89 and 43-44 had less snow than what was received last month. You seeing anything of promise for the next few weeks? yeah i think it looks pretty promising for synoptic systems. We probably miss out anything this early this weekend....but there is energy diving into the SW frequently and moving east. I'd think one of those would cut under us. There will probably some rain/somewhat warmer temps at times, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 From DT's facebook page. so true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 so true. HAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 slow day...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Boonville; For anyone with an interest in tracking LES models re: real world output- We had just about as much snow (10-12"), of the greatest density (8.5/10"-1"?), thrown about as far from the lake, as I've seen in the last 14 years. Most fell from past midnight Tuesday until 9 am. Very windy/big gusts/temps near or above 32'. Very much like a NE'erly tracking low carrying gulf moisture or a south-central Vermont storm carrying from the ocean . Interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danno Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 BTW, I'm thinking the triple point of Jefferson, Lewis, and Oswego Counties (ie W. Tug Hill upslope region) will pick up over 18" over the next 2 days. And if the 850's can verify a degree or two colder vs. current progs....then double that. Well done! Rain changed over to snow in Redfield last night about 5 pm and we picked up about 4" overnight. Was quite surprised to see over 12" in Turin while riding today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Well done! Rain changed over to snow in Redfield last night about 5 pm and we picked up about 4" overnight. Was quite surprised to see over 12" in Turin while riding today. Well, I don't think anywhere reached 18", but certainly ended up above the advisory criteria that NWS BUF put out, which I was surprised to see such a conservative approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Well, I don't think anywhere reached 18", but certainly ended up above the advisory criteria that NWS BUF put out, which I was surprised to see such a conservative approach. I went to bed after reading that advisory thinking 'no way'- definitely not LES conditions. Whatever criteria they (and yourself) were modelling as operative certainly deserves review and possible re-weighting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 KBUF report on the 1/31 to 2/3 LES event ("Cobalt"): http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake1213/c/stormsumc.html Not that it was a particularly big event, but the accumulation map shows very clearly the comparatively light amounts that Hamburg, Lackawanna, and OP got compared to the rest of Erie County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I like the pattern going forward. Looks we may finally have a legit -NAO develop and there is a lot of storminess as shortwaves dive into the SW and move east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I like the pattern going forward. Looks we may finally have a legit -NAO develop and there is a lot of storminess as shortwaves dive into the SW and move east. -NAO is overrated for us around here, IMO....just look at how many times the winter -NAO's have been around the past decade (quite a few) yet they we have had a dearth of classic HV running (inland version of a nor'easter) storms. For MA and SNE, sure, -NAO means much more to them....we just need a piece of energy to actually dig into the WGOM with the right orientation. Obviously, a -NAO is a better signal for us than NOT having a -NAO....but, at least for the last decade (or so) it has kind of stuck it's nose at the interior parts of NYS/PA and S. Canada. Edit: And Nick, I didn't mean to steal your thunder....that is good model analysis by yourself....I just would like a nice bonifided blockbuster of an interior hit!! Frustrating!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 -NAO is overrated for us around here, IMO....just look at how many times the winter -NAO's have been around the past decade (quite a few) yet they we have had a dearth of classic HV running (inland version of a nor'easter) storms. For MA and SNE, sure, -NAO means much more to them....we just need a piece of energy to actually dig into the WGOM with the right orientation. Obviously, a -NAO is a better signal for us than NOT having a -NAO....but, at least for the last decade (or so) it has kind of stuck it's nose at the interior parts of NYS/PA and S. Canada. Edit: And Nick, I didn't mean to steal your thunder....that is good model analysis by yourself....I just would like a nice bonifided blockbuster of an interior hit!! Frustrating!! that's kinda all I was getting at lol. In some cases (not this one, I think) it could theoretically be too strong and push the storm through the mid-atlantic instead of the northeast. Given the troughiness in the SW...we shouldn't have to wait for something to make it to the coast to blow up. There should be plenty of well developed primary lows moving through the plains/midwest/ohio valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Can someone explain, or link to an explanation of, the dynamics of a HV runner? Are there any case studies documenting storms that fit this profile? As a new arrival to WNY, I'm still wrapping my head around lake-effect dynamics, so I'm a bit lost on larger scale events. I lived NY and Boston and saw some classic coastal storms-- Halloween 1991 (not a snow storm, but impressive nonetheless), March 1993, January 1996, April Fools 1997, President's Day 2003, February 2006-- but can't wrap my head around the dynamics of a synoptic-scale storm that would affect the eastern lakes in a similar way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Can someone explain, or link to an explanation of, the dynamics of a HV runner? Are there any case studies documenting storms that fit this profile? As a new arrival to WNY, I'm still wrapping my head around lake-effect dynamics, so I'm a bit lost on larger scale events. I lived NY and Boston and saw some classic coastal storms-- Halloween 1991 (not a snow storm, but impressive nonetheless), March 1993, January 1996, April Fools 1997, President's Day 2003, February 2006-- but can't wrap my head around the dynamics of a synoptic-scale storm that would affect the eastern lakes in a similar way. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1997/us1230.php Syacuse recieved I think around 20" but there were parts of CNY unofficially ended up with over 40".... The dynamics really are the same, just the cold conveyor belt and deformation band setups are further inland.. Hudson Valley (HV) and/or Conneticut River Valley (CRV) tracks are the best for inland Upstate NY/PA and S. Ontario Province. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1997/us1230.php Syacuse recieved I think around 20" but there were parts of CNY unofficially ended up with over 40".... The dynamics really are the same, just the cold conveyor belt and deformation band setups are further inland.. Hudson Valley (HV) and/or Conneticut River Valley (CRV) tracks are the best for inland Upstate NY/PA and S. Ontario Province. Exactly what I was looking for-- thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Exactly what I was looking for-- thanks! Some other examples (more for the SYR area): And the front cover of the Post Standard documenting the 9.5" of snow for SYR in 2 hours!! (Note the picture...a forshadowing of a Minecrafter!!) http://blog.syracuse.com/indepth/2007/12/snow010594.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I like the pattern going forward. Looks we may finally have a legit -NAO develop and there is a lot of storminess as shortwaves dive into the SW and move east. What's your take on LES potential this weekend? WITH COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THESE FRONTALBOUNDARIES SETTING THE TABLE FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOWEAST/NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. OFFLK ERIE...THE LI EQUILIBRIUM IS FORECAST TO JUMP ABV 7K FT WITHIN AGENERAL 240-250 FLOW. THIS WILL FAVOR LAKE ENHANCED ACTIVITY FORSITES JUST SOUTH OF THE BUF METRO AREA...BUT A MODERATELY SHEAREDENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY PAINT A BROAD AREA OF STEADIER LAKE ENHANCEDSNOW FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHWARDS TO BUFFALO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1997/us1230.php Syacuse recieved I think around 20" but there were parts of CNY unofficially ended up with over 40".... The dynamics really are the same, just the cold conveyor belt and deformation band setups are further inland.. Hudson Valley (HV) and/or Conneticut River Valley (CRV) tracks are the best for inland Upstate NY/PA and S. Ontario Province. This was the last time Onondaga County had a snow emergency. Phoenix picked up 26" of synoptic and some lake effect. Was snowmobiling on 690. Good times with that storm. Mike Seidel(sp?- weather channel) was at the Cato Hotel reporting live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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