heavy_wx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Most areas near the eastern Great Lakes should see some lake effect snow as we head into February. Finally getting back into moderate snow here as the band slowly moves south. Still doesn't appear to be too organized with two distinct areas of convection present on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 Going in and out of moderate snow with low visibility, around a few hundred feet, on the southern edge of the band. The radar presentation is starting to look more impressive with single core of stronger reflectivity developing. It will be interesting to see conditions here in the next several hours as the band slowly moves to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Someone is going to end up with 3 feet out of that Lake Ontario band by tomorrow evening. That thing is beautiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Latest Reports....LOL at the 1 inch in OP. Wonder who that is. NEW YORK...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY... PERRYSBURG 15.0 1014 PM 1/31 CO-OP OBSERVER...ERIE COUNTY... ORCHARD PARK 1.0 800 PM 1/31 FACEBOOK...LEWIS COUNTY... 1 NE PARKERS 21.0 1015 PM 1/31 FACEBOOK...OSWEGO COUNTY... SANDY CREEK 5.0 742 PM 1/31 CO-OP OBSERVER...WYOMING COUNTY... PERRY 5.5 1030 PM 1/31 AT MONTAGUE INN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 Someone is going to end up with 3 feet out of that Lake Ontario band by tomorrow evening. That thing is beautiful! Much of central and northern Oswego county is getting hammered right now. Back to near whiteout conditions here, though it doesn't look like we have more than 2 inches on the ground. Hard to tell with the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Much of central and northern Oswego county is getting hammered right now. Back to near whiteout conditions here, though it doesn't look like we have more than 2 inches on the ground. Hard to tell with the wind. It's much the same in Lewis County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Pretty thin stream- mebbe 6" here at present but just starting to come down. Ground bare from here to Rome as of this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 21" reported in Montague up on the Tug, Like a blizzard here at my house right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 BREAKING DOWN THE DETAILS… LAKE SNOWS WILL BE ONGOING EAST-NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES ON SATURDAY AS H85 TEMPS OF -18C WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GENEROUS AMOUNTS OF LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION. WHILE A CAP IN THE VCNTY OF 8K FT WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A LIMITING FACTOR…THE FACT THAT THIS WILL BE A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL KEEP A FAVORABLY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN ABUNDANCE OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW AS SNOW TO WATER RATIOS WILL APPROACH 25:1. THIS MAY ENABLE ACCUMULATIONS TO APPROACH WARNING CRITERIA (> 6″/12 HRS) ACROSS THE HEART OF ERIE COUNTY (BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS) AND FROM THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE TUG HILL NORTH AND EAST TO WATERTOWN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF LEWIS COUNTY…BUT GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE WILL HOLD ONTO THE WATCH FOR ONE MORE FORECAST PACKAGE. THE AREA OF SNOW EAST OF LK ONTARIO WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE BROADBRUSH IN NATURE AS A HIGHER SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE…WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID WEST WILL APPROACH OUR REGION AND SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. THESE VALUES WILL BE MORE THAN 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 a little sad that BUF won't make a call 18 hours or so before the start of an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 It looks like we got somewhere around 6" here, but it is hard to really know with the amount of wind we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 It looks like we got somewhere around 6" here, but it is hard to really know with the amount of wind we had. that's always the "problem" about living on campus...half the snow that falls ends up blowing off campus into the city lol. Measurements at SUNY Oswego are somewhat suspect because of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 that's always the "problem" about living on campus...half the snow that falls ends up blowing off campus into the city lol. Measurements at SUNY Oswego are somewhat suspect because of this. But most of the time, one can at least guage the accuracy by looking at some areas just inland, away from the wind. BTW, what a trip in to work (at SU)!!! 3+"/hr. stuff...glad I just had new tires put on....lots of people having problems negotiating hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 that's always the "problem" about living on campus...half the snow that falls ends up blowing off campus into the city lol. Measurements at SUNY Oswego are somewhat suspect because of this. Yeah, it seems to happen for many lake effect events although we got a few nice events in 2010-2011 with fairly light winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Picked up 3" here in Hannibal... lightly snowing and windy still also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 On the + side of 12" here. Real nice stuff, and a sunny day too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Yeah, it seems to happen for many lake effect events although we got a few nice events in 2010-2011 with fairly light winds. Is it normal to get events like that because I'm going to Oswego in the fall for meteorology and I want to be prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 Is it normal to get events like that because I'm going to Oswego in the fall for meteorology and I want to be prepared. I'd say that there is usually a decent amount of wind with the lake effect on campus. The wind will usually die down somewhat when we get into the center of an intense band and then pick up again once we are on the edges where there is stronger low-level inflow. That tends to blow most of the snow around anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Is it normal to get events like that because I'm going to Oswego in the fall for meteorology and I want to be prepared. Just keep your expectations in check...and keep in mind Oswego averages way more than the vast majority of people in this country and nearly everyone on this board. But it has the "buffalo problem" where you average plenty...but locations near you get much more on average than you. Oswego had 2 200" winters while I was there, but that's more the exception than the rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I wouldn't be surprised if BUF goes with the advisory as opposed to the warning...lots of questions on the band strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 But most of the time, one can at least guage the accuracy by looking at some areas just inland, away from the wind. BTW, what a trip in to work (at SU)!!! 3+"/hr. stuff...glad I just had new tires put on....lots of people having problems negotiating hills. They ended up closing Rt. 81 in Tully for a 20 vehicle accident. http://www.9wsyr.com/news/local/story/I-81-shut-down-in-both-directions-from-LaFayette/ZYmJejFWxkynBxOKPsx5AQ.cspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 They ended up closing Rt. 81 in Tully for a 20 vehicle accident. http://www.9wsyr.com/news/local/story/I-81-shut-down-in-both-directions-from-LaFayette/ZYmJejFWxkynBxOKPsx5AQ.cspx Yeah, I saw a car sliding backwards (in the wrong lane) on E. Colvin St. up near Manley Field House as I was coming in. Many cars/SUV's had problems when they stopped on the hill going up....they couldn't get enough momentum to get going again without spinning. I waited near the bottom, then never stopped, which proved to be the correct choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I love how the 12z ARW and NMM are worlds apart. ARW gives BUF 2 to 3 ft...NMM probably about 6". I'd probably go with a low end warning with 6 to 10"...but who knows. Biggest variable is band strength imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I love how the 12z ARW and NMM are worlds apart. ARW gives BUF 2 to 3 ft...NMM probably about 6". I'd probably go with a low end warning with 6 to 10"...but who knows. Biggest variable is band strength imo. Any thoughts on band placement? I've read some discussion that the band could end up north of BUF most of tomorrow before swinging back through later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Any thoughts on band placement? I've read some discussion that the band could end up north of BUF most of tomorrow before swinging back through later in the day. Latest models have it over Buffalo and Northern Suburbs for nearly entire duration of event. So you should be in a great location for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Snowing like crazy from Eden, Concord, South Boston, Colden. Inch per hour easily. 5-10 inches on the ground depending on location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I wouldn't be surprised if BUF goes with the advisory as opposed to the warning...lots of questions on the band strength. Buffalo is going to go warning judging by there graphical 2-d software. They have Buffalo getting over to a foot by tomorrow night! Think I might drive up to my parents house on Amherst/Cheektowaga border for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 At least at mid-afternoon, Don Paul was sticking to his story that the Erie Cty band would end up drifting too far north to bring likely warning criteria amounts to points N of the s-towns. He mentioned their RPM modeling. Have gotten two quick bursts in N Buffalo in the last hour or so. Not adding up to much, 1/2" at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 11.8" here in Jamestown. Only 9" on the ground due to the blowing and drifting. Oh, and we've almost passed last year's snow total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I don't think the band will get all that far north. The sigma winds gets to about 250...even though the surface winds do come around to about 220. The band placement is typically dictated by the mean cloud bearing layer. I'd guess North Buffalo or so...but some models show it bodily into Niagara County which I don't see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.