yoda Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 didnt we do this with the last two sys? Yes, the night clipper worked for us up here... the one last Friday radar wise naso much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 didnt we do this with the last two sys? nowcasting is fun...and sometimes futile. i don't think the radar looks bad by any stretch and like the orientation of the bands in west virginia right now, but i do think the models underestimate downsloping effects sometimes. i hope this isn't one of them. we need to break this 2" drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 nowcasting is fun...and sometimes futile. i don't think the radar looks bad by any stretch and like the orientation of the bands in west virginia right now, but i do think the models underestimate downsloping effects sometimes. i hope this isn't one of them. we need to break this 2" drought.these systems are almost completely dynamics. we'll see stuff bloom east of the apps in the next few hours. downsloping isnt really a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 can't we just plop dc on a ridge line 150 miles to the west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 these systems are almost completely dynamics. we'll see stuff bloom east of the apps in the next few hours. downsloping isnt really a factor. it's got a little punch to it, so we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 ^ (matt) you'll eventually get used to not seeing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 it's got a little punch to it, so we'll see what happens.it looks more like the first one last week than the second at 500.. i might be wrong but i think it'll perform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 can't we just plop dc on a ridge line 150 miles to the west? gfs_namer_147_precip_ptot.gif we average 15" of snow for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 it looks more like the first one last week than the second at 500.. i might be wrong but i think it'll perform either way, it's gonna be pretty weird seeing snow after shorts/t-shirt weather tuesday and wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 huntington, wv looks snowy... http://www.wsaz.com/imageViewer?url=http://gray.ftp.clickability.com/wsazwebftp/wxh.jpg&width=704&height=500&title=WSAZ%20WeatherCam%20-%20Huntington,%20WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 we average 15" of snow for a reason. it's february. we're at 2". even this isn't normal. though it's funny ian, i went back a few days ago in this tragedy of a winter and never really appreciated that even in '10, the winter of all winters, DCA still only topped out at 56" or so for the season hah not exactly shattering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I don't think I have ever been this enthusiastic for a coating of snow on my cartop before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 05z RAP loves MD And FWIW, RLX (Charleston WV WFO) just threw up WSW's for 4-6 and 4-8 inch amounts from the clipper (including Elkins, Snowshoe, and Charleston) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 05z RAP loves MD Hi RAP . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 The area of snow to our SW is having a super hard time making any real progress in the past 7 hours - the dry air over Virginia is eating it alive and it is screaming for mercy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Snow appearing now on radar around winchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bw26 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Pouring snow here deep in SWVA. And I'm pretty sure I just heard a rumble of thunder in the distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 159 AM EST FRI FEB 1 2013 DCZ001-MDZ009>011-013-014-016-VAZ042-052>056-501-502-011500- /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0007.130201T0800Z-130201T1500Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE- PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-LOUDOUN- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA... BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...LEESBURG...MANASSAS... MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH... FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON 159 AM EST FRI FEB 1 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 1 INCH. * TIMING...BEGINNING AFTER 4 AM...ENDING BY 10 AM. * TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. * WINDS...LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AFTER MID MORNING. * IMPACTS...THIS MORNING ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I don't know why but I am very bullish about this event. Seems like it is just January's southern clipper shifted north, with more lifting and dynamics. Reminds me of something you'd see out in the Midwest. It appears there will be a very small area of substantial snowfall and a very sharp cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I was wrong about the dry boundary layer. Band forming in................................................... you guessed it: Central Virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I'll wager you at least a hundred dollars that the principal band is going to dump on central VA with a bullseye on Fredericksburg. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php - That band is developing big time over central VA. While this has principally been a Trinidad-tracked winter (lows track from Texas into the Great Lakes, classic Trinidad-A tracks), with DCA in the warm sector, those systems that do manage to give us a few flurries have always slammed the hell out of the mts or central VA, typically Fredericksburg or Richmond or both. Its tough to find a winter when Richmond or Fredericksburg beats out DCA on total snow in a winter but I'll bet you this is that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Nice little blob headed toward Wes-land. Hopefully should be filling in to the WSW for many of us soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 this clipper is nothing but a g&ddamn TEASE. why on earth did I ever stay up for this shyte? this "storm" is nothing but a tease. radar shows snow. weather bug says light snow. I look outside. INCREDIBLE flizzard!!!!1! About 9000 feet over my house this winter sucks gigantic, hairy goat balls the size of a supercluster final nail in the coffin for this clipper: 99 percent of the energy moved SSE into the mountains of SW Virginia and western North Carolina. NWS just updated our forecast - Chance of snow today - mostly before 7am, accums of less than half an inch. The model that called for a quarter of a tenth of an inch of qpf was right on the money. We need to worship that model this entire month. radar shows more and more returns. yet, we have 12 mile visibility with nothing, not even one rimed snow crystal. I can't believe NWS set categorical pops for today: 80 percent chc of snow! What a hoot! Where did they get their met degrees from? A psychic? I absolutely HATE this damned winter. I HATE this damned winter far worse than ebola! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 this clipper is nothing but a g&ddamn TEASE. why on earth did I ever stay up for this shyte? this "storm" is nothing but a tease. radar shows snow. weather bug says light snow. I look outside. INCREDIBLE flizzard!!!!1! About 9000 feet over my house this winter sucks gigantic, hairy goat balls the size of a supercluster final nail in the coffin for this clipper: 99 percent of the energy moved SSE into the mountains of SW Virginia and western North Carolina. NWS just updated our forecast - Chance of snow today - mostly before 7am, accums of less than half an inch. The model that called for a quarter of a tenth of an inch of qpf was right on the money. We need to worship that model this entire month. radar shows more and more returns. yet, we have 12 mile visibility with nothing, not even one rimed snow crystal. I can't believe NWS set categorical pops for today: 80 percent chc of snow! What a hoot! Where did they get their met degrees from? A psychic? I absolutely HATE this damned winter. I HATE this damned winter far worse than ebola! You will get at least a car top dusting when the pivot band comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 DCA is like 400 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Hard to believe its not snowing at all in any of these bands. Its snowing in Columbia MD now. No one has reports? Jeb? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I'm in shock. Moderate snow. Flakes at least a quarter inch to a third of an inch in diameter are falling - I can see them even without streetlights. I am just in shock - I was pretty sure I would never see snow again until January 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Unless you are under that one west to east band, this doesn't look like a widespread event but instead a quick line of snow. No? The radar returns are looking a lot like the simulated returns modeled last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Light snow started a few minutes ago...radar looks ok for a quick dust here...big stuff down South it appears...GO Someone!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Light snow falling right now. Grass is going white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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