Ian Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 And neither one seems even remotely dependable.yeah probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Looks like a due east move, would like it a little north of east. I don't think any protracted warm up will occur in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 The 3z RAP looks pretty good to me for the cities. I think you guys have a shot this time. As for me, I'll either wake to snow or I won't. I'm done for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Looks like a due east move, would like it a little north of east. I don't think any protracted warm up will occur in Feb.I'd probably take the 0 to +2 over 0 to -2 but I dunno anything. With a +4ish Jan KA is looking pretty good still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 They don't have December's data in there, so the 2nd half calculation is inaccurate. ahhh...that explains it...good catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 radar looks pretty unspectacular, but maybe we can a band similar to the one about go through charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 The 3z RAP looks pretty good to me for the cities. I think you guys have a shot this time. As for me, I'll either wake to snow or I won't. I'm done for the day. i'm not staying up for this one...i'm car topper'd out. if i wake up and it's snowing, fabulous...if not, at least it's friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 The 3z RAP looks pretty good to me for the cities. I think you guys have a shot this time. As for me, I'll either wake to snow or I won't. I'm done for the day.looks like it puts down .25 somewhere near balt. band spraying all around when it has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 looks like it puts down .25 somewhere near balt. band spraying all around when it has it. RAP_255_2013020103_F12_PCPIN_12_HR.png Dear God, if only...has me around .23+. Likely totals are obviously too high, but I hope the precip placement of the heaviest band is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 radar looks pretty unspectacular, but maybe we can a band similar to the one about go through charleston.didnt we do this with the last two sys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 didnt we do this with the last two sys? Yes, the night clipper worked for us up here... the one last Friday radar wise naso much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 didnt we do this with the last two sys? nowcasting is fun...and sometimes futile. i don't think the radar looks bad by any stretch and like the orientation of the bands in west virginia right now, but i do think the models underestimate downsloping effects sometimes. i hope this isn't one of them. we need to break this 2" drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 nowcasting is fun...and sometimes futile. i don't think the radar looks bad by any stretch and like the orientation of the bands in west virginia right now, but i do think the models underestimate downsloping effects sometimes. i hope this isn't one of them. we need to break this 2" drought.these systems are almost completely dynamics. we'll see stuff bloom east of the apps in the next few hours. downsloping isnt really a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 can't we just plop dc on a ridge line 150 miles to the west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 these systems are almost completely dynamics. we'll see stuff bloom east of the apps in the next few hours. downsloping isnt really a factor. it's got a little punch to it, so we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 ^ (matt) you'll eventually get used to not seeing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 it's got a little punch to it, so we'll see what happens.it looks more like the first one last week than the second at 500.. i might be wrong but i think it'll perform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 can't we just plop dc on a ridge line 150 miles to the west? gfs_namer_147_precip_ptot.gif we average 15" of snow for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 it looks more like the first one last week than the second at 500.. i might be wrong but i think it'll perform either way, it's gonna be pretty weird seeing snow after shorts/t-shirt weather tuesday and wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 huntington, wv looks snowy... http://www.wsaz.com/imageViewer?url=http://gray.ftp.clickability.com/wsazwebftp/wxh.jpg&width=704&height=500&title=WSAZ%20WeatherCam%20-%20Huntington,%20WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 we average 15" of snow for a reason. it's february. we're at 2". even this isn't normal. though it's funny ian, i went back a few days ago in this tragedy of a winter and never really appreciated that even in '10, the winter of all winters, DCA still only topped out at 56" or so for the season hah not exactly shattering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I don't think I have ever been this enthusiastic for a coating of snow on my cartop before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 05z RAP loves MD And FWIW, RLX (Charleston WV WFO) just threw up WSW's for 4-6 and 4-8 inch amounts from the clipper (including Elkins, Snowshoe, and Charleston) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 05z RAP loves MD Hi RAP . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 The area of snow to our SW is having a super hard time making any real progress in the past 7 hours - the dry air over Virginia is eating it alive and it is screaming for mercy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Snow appearing now on radar around winchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bw26 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Pouring snow here deep in SWVA. And I'm pretty sure I just heard a rumble of thunder in the distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 159 AM EST FRI FEB 1 2013 DCZ001-MDZ009>011-013-014-016-VAZ042-052>056-501-502-011500- /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0007.130201T0800Z-130201T1500Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE- PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-LOUDOUN- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA... BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...LEESBURG...MANASSAS... MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH... FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON 159 AM EST FRI FEB 1 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 1 INCH. * TIMING...BEGINNING AFTER 4 AM...ENDING BY 10 AM. * TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. * WINDS...LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AFTER MID MORNING. * IMPACTS...THIS MORNING ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I don't know why but I am very bullish about this event. Seems like it is just January's southern clipper shifted north, with more lifting and dynamics. Reminds me of something you'd see out in the Midwest. It appears there will be a very small area of substantial snowfall and a very sharp cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I was wrong about the dry boundary layer. Band forming in................................................... you guessed it: Central Virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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