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Feb 1 clipper obs and discussion


usedtobe

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didnt we do this with the last two sys?

 

nowcasting is fun...and sometimes futile.  i don't think the radar looks bad by any stretch and like the orientation of the bands in west virginia right now, but i do think the models underestimate downsloping effects sometimes.  i hope this isn't one of them.  we need to break this 2" drought.

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nowcasting is fun...and sometimes futile.  i don't think the radar looks bad by any stretch and like the orientation of the bands in west virginia right now, but i do think the models underestimate downsloping effects sometimes.  i hope this isn't one of them.  we need to break this 2" drought.

these systems are almost completely dynamics. we'll see stuff bloom east of the apps in the next few hours. downsloping isnt really a factor.
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we average 15" of snow for a reason.  

it's february. we're at 2". even this isn't normal. 

 

 

though it's funny ian, i went back a few days ago in this tragedy of a winter and never really appreciated that even in '10, the winter of all winters, DCA still only topped out at 56" or so for the season hah not exactly shattering.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

159 AM EST FRI FEB 1 2013

DCZ001-MDZ009>011-013-014-016-VAZ042-052>056-501-502-011500-

/O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0007.130201T0800Z-130201T1500Z/

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-

PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-LOUDOUN-

PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-

ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-

NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...

BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...LEESBURG...MANASSAS...

MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...

FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON

159 AM EST FRI FEB 1 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS

MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS

ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT

UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 1 INCH.

* TIMING...BEGINNING AFTER 4 AM...ENDING BY 10 AM.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

* WINDS...LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP

TO 35 MPH AFTER MID MORNING.

* IMPACTS...THIS MORNING ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW

WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW

COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING.

&&

$$

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I don't know why but I am very bullish about this event. Seems like it is just January's southern clipper shifted north, with more lifting and dynamics. Reminds me of something you'd see out in the Midwest. It appears there will be a very small area of substantial snowfall and a very sharp cutoff.

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I'll wager you at least a hundred dollars that the principal band is going to dump on central VA with a bullseye on Fredericksburg.

 

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php - That band is developing big time over central VA.

 

While this has principally been a Trinidad-tracked winter (lows track from Texas into the Great Lakes, classic Trinidad-A tracks), with DCA in the warm sector, those systems that do manage to give us a few flurries have always slammed the hell out of the mts or central VA, typically Fredericksburg or Richmond or both.

 

Its tough to find a winter when Richmond or Fredericksburg beats out DCA on total snow in a winter but I'll bet you this is that winter.

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this clipper is nothing but a g&ddamn TEASE.

 

why on earth did I ever stay up for this shyte?

 

this "storm" is nothing but a tease. radar shows snow. weather bug says light snow.

 

I look outside. INCREDIBLE flizzard!!!!1! About 9000 feet over my house

 

this winter sucks gigantic, hairy goat balls the size of a supercluster

 

final nail in the coffin for this clipper: 99 percent of the energy moved SSE into the mountains of SW Virginia and western North Carolina. NWS just updated our forecast - Chance of snow today - mostly before 7am, accums of less than half an inch.  The model that called for a quarter of a tenth of an inch of qpf was right on the money. We need to worship that model this entire month.

 

radar shows more and more returns. yet, we have 12 mile visibility with nothing, not even one rimed snow crystal.

I can't believe NWS set categorical pops for today: 80 percent chc of snow! What a hoot! Where did they get their met degrees from? A psychic?

 

 

I absolutely HATE this damned winter. I HATE this damned winter far worse than ebola!

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this clipper is nothing but a g&ddamn TEASE.

 

why on earth did I ever stay up for this shyte?

 

this "storm" is nothing but a tease. radar shows snow. weather bug says light snow.

 

I look outside. INCREDIBLE flizzard!!!!1! About 9000 feet over my house

 

this winter sucks gigantic, hairy goat balls the size of a supercluster

 

final nail in the coffin for this clipper: 99 percent of the energy moved SSE into the mountains of SW Virginia and western North Carolina. NWS just updated our forecast - Chance of snow today - mostly before 7am, accums of less than half an inch.  The model that called for a quarter of a tenth of an inch of qpf was right on the money. We need to worship that model this entire month.

 

radar shows more and more returns. yet, we have 12 mile visibility with nothing, not even one rimed snow crystal.

I can't believe NWS set categorical pops for today: 80 percent chc of snow! What a hoot! Where did they get their met degrees from? A psychic?

 

 

I absolutely HATE this damned winter. I HATE this damned winter far worse than ebola!

 

You will get at least a car top dusting when the pivot band comes through.

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