mitchnick Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I was 7 at the time, was that the one with a lot of ice storms? think 14th Street jet crash in DC, then the subway accident the same day 5-6" across the area and then a few more moderate events that winter; cold too after the lousy winter of 80/81, it felt real snowy and you make me feel old as I was in my 2nd year of law school that winter clerking for a politician wannabe named Lincoln Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 It's irritating when people post about the writing on the wall on January 31st I agree. I'll try not to post about that so much in the future. You are in Maryland. Maryland will see at least 25 inches of snow through March 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 00z NAM looks ok... prob 0.06ish? DC south at 9 hrs on sim radar get some action... h5 vort passes just to our north through MD it appears.. h7 looks kinda stingy and weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Damn Mitch....I graduated college in 92 and thought I wad old.....yer fartin serious dust man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 I've noticed this very thing as well. Seems like it wavers and then heads back to what it showed in the 13-18 hour range. Sometimes it has come back wetter. I guess every situation is unique however. During the last clipper at least to me the RAP seemed to be too heavy in its longer ranges and then slowly wound down towards what actually happened. The nighttime clipper, I have no clue how it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Damn Mitch....I graduated college in 92 and thought I wad old.....yer fartin serious dust man. fortunately, I've never grown up... ask my wife! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 00z NAM looks ok... prob 0.06ish? DC south at 9 hrs on sim radar get some action... h5 vort passes just to our north through MD it appears.. h7 looks kinda stingy and weak I thought vort was suppose to pass through efz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I made my kids do their homework...just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 seems like the diff between the RAP and the NAM is the RAP gets the system going right over us while the NAM waits until it is to our east ACY does pretty well along with N DE and the rest of southern NJ on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I thought vort was suppose to pass through efz Thats where RAP has gone the past few runs... through EZF.. NAM runs M-D line or a lil south of that EDIT: And what Mitch said above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 00z NAM looks ok... prob 0.06ish? DC south at 9 hrs on sim radar get some action... h5 vort passes just to our north through MD it appears.. h7 looks kinda stingy and weak Looks worse than 18z...here we go again...close to game time and the players are injured or suspended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 It's irritating when people post about the writing on the wall on January 31stThe drop-off in climo is very real in a few weeks. It can snow for quite a while longer and it's more likely you get an atypical mod event late season than early--at least historically- but given where we are at this pt.. some unease is at least expected. I sorta agree with Bob though that one of these events in the coming period or even more might surprise. This is a great time of year to bust snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I thought vort was suppose to pass through efz No worries. Nam won't hit its useful range till tomorrow afternoon. Stick with the tsnow rap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Once again nam goes from wettest to driest model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 LWX 847 pm AFD Update... and LWX kibosh time .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGIONTONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TOPASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THESHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS FAIRLY POTENT AND CAN BESEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIVING INTO THE MID-WEST/OHVLY THISEVENING. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT BOTH AT THE LOW-LEVELS AHEAD OFTHE COLD FRONT AND AT THE MID-LEVELS FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWTO MAKE IT THROUGH THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR...AFFECTING MOSTLOCATIONS. PCPN EVIDENT ON RGNL RADAR MOSAICS FM CVG-PAH ATTM.18Z NAM SOLN AN OUTLIER PAINTING A STRIPE OF 0.10+ INCH QPF ACRSDC METRO OVNGT-ELY FRI MRNG. MDL PHYSICS DO SUPPORT THE OUTPUT...AS MAX LIFT COINCIDENT W/ DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE. HWVR...18ZGFS AND LTST RAP SNOW HALF THE QPF...AND LTST RUNS FM LCL WRFS/ARW4 AND NMM12G/ SHOW A QUARTER THE QPF. WITH THAT IN MIND ASWELL AS QUICK MVMT...AM DOUBTING THAT AN INCH OF SNW WL BE FOUNDBY FRI MRNG. TIMING DOES LOOK TO BE COINCIDENT WITH THE BGNG OFRUSH HR...SO THAT DOESNT MEAN WE WL BE TROUBLE-FREE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Once again nam goes from wettest to driest model Good model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 RAP really hasnt had massive shifts. It's been keeping the heaviest axis pretty much in the same spot. It's overall a bit drier than earlier but not sure anyone was really expecting to get 2-3"+. Someone should at least get mini banded for a bit imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 RAP really hasnt had massive shifts. It's been keeping the heaviest axis pretty much in the same spot. It's overall a bit drier than earlier but not sure anyone was really expecting to get 2-3"+. Someone should at least get mini banded for a bit imo....and the rest of us massively disappointed as we have become so used to being fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 RAP really hasnt had massive shifts. It's been keeping the heaviest axis pretty much in the same spot. It's overall a bit drier than earlier but not sure anyone was really expecting to get 2-3"+. Someone should at least get mini banded for a bit imo. That's what it looks like in terms of uvv. The sounding do look interesting in terms of having a lapse rate that is moist adiabatic. The worry with the RAP is that it will continue to get a little drier each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 frankly, I'm surprised the vort is even able to hold itself together with that deep low north of the Lakes working to rip and shred it of any moisture and vorticity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Lwx is covering the entire cwa. These types of events like to paste an are the size of a county. A small are getting much more than everyone else is much easier to *explain* than vice versa. If the rap @ 5 and 850 actually verified then more explaining will be necessary but thats a lower prob than a non event for most. I'm huggin the rap though. More fun that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 That's what it looks like in terms of uvv. The sounding do look interesting in terms of having a lapse rate that is moist adiabatic. The worry with the RAP is that it will continue to get a little drier each run. Looks like cold will soon come back after feb 10-14 warm period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Looks like cold will soon come back after feb 10-14 warm period try to limit our disappointment in this thread to tomorrow's clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 try to limit our disappointment in this thread to tomorrow's clipper As you can see...I've moved on.00z nam is .03 for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 As you can see...I've moved on.00z nam is .03 for DCA. Good for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 During the last clipper at least to me the RAP seemed to be too heavy in its longer ranges and then slowly wound down towards what actually happened. The nighttime clipper, I have no clue how it did. The night clipper was pretty steady. The Friday storm it started me off good, backed away, the gradually got better as the morning wore on. Of course, I tend to just see what it does here. I thought it did well with Dec 29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Maybe after midnight, the RAP will start to show something better again... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Wow is everyone bipolar... Why not just stay depressed that no real snow is going to happen like I do now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 think 14th Street jet crash in DC, then the subway accident the same day 5-6" across the area and then a few more moderate events that winter; cold too after the lousy winter of 80/81, it felt real snowy and you make me feel old as I was in my 2nd year of law school that winter clerking for a politician wannabe named Lincoln Wow and I thought I was old compared to half the kids on these weather boards. You sure you did not clerk for George Washington . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Wow is everyone bipolar... Why not just stay depressed that no real snow is going to happen like I do now? Because being depressed over snow sucks and having fun with anything that falls is enjoyable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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