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Feb 1 clipper obs and discussion


usedtobe

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I wasn't alive in the 80s, but while it wasn't a particularly snowy decade, it was a much colder decade with a lot of great Arctic outbreaks which meant that snow that fell stayed on the ground for a while.

 

good point, and i think that we had more significant snows (4-8") as opposed to the boom or bust since 2000.  

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looks like the 80s had greater than 10" in 7 of the winters whereas only 6 greater than 10" since 2000.  the 60s and 70s look snowy, too.  combine that with the colder temps and you have winters that look and feel more like winter.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/dca/dcasnow.txt

 

here's some temp data (freakin' 2012 was like 4 degrees warmer in the 2nd half of the year than any other year since 1871):

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/dca/dcatemps.txt

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I was 7 at the time, was that the one with a lot of ice storms?

Not really, mostly snow that year. There were also a couple severe cold outbreaks in Jan. Snow totals weren't that impressive at the airports but they were decent. Suburbs did very well. Several moderate to significant storms and long periods of snow cover. There was one ice storm where freezing rain fell on top of a 8 inch snowpack, afterwards when the a front came through it froze so solid you walk on top with breaking through. January that year had the famous Air Florida crash and the AFC championship game between the Bengals and Chargers played in bitter cold.

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I was 7 at the time, was that the one with a lot of ice storms?

think 14th Street jet crash in DC, then the subway accident the same day

5-6" across the area and then a few more moderate events that winter; cold too

after the lousy winter of 80/81, it felt real snowy

and you make me feel old as I was in my 2nd year of law school that winter clerking for a politician wannabe named Lincoln  :P

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I've noticed this very thing as well. Seems like it wavers and then heads back to what it showed in the 13-18 hour range. Sometimes it has come back wetter. I guess every situation is unique however.

 

During the last clipper at least to me the RAP seemed to be too heavy in its longer ranges and then slowly wound down towards what actually happened.  The nighttime clipper,  I have no clue how it did. 

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00z NAM looks ok... prob 0.06ish?  DC south at 9 hrs on sim radar get some action... h5 vort passes just to our north through MD it appears.. h7 looks kinda stingy and weak

Looks worse than 18z...here we go again...close to game time and the players are injured or suspended

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It's irritating when people post about the writing on the wall on January 31st

The drop-off in climo is very real in a few weeks. It can snow for quite a while longer and it's more likely you get an atypical mod event late season than early--at least historically- but given where we are at this pt.. some unease is at least expected.

I sorta agree with Bob though that one of these events in the coming period or even more might surprise. This is a great time of year to bust snowy.

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LWX 847 pm AFD Update... and LWX kibosh time

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS FAIRLY POTENT AND CAN BE
SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIVING INTO THE MID-WEST/OHVLY THIS
EVENING. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT BOTH AT THE LOW-LEVELS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND AT THE MID-LEVELS FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR...AFFECTING MOST
LOCATIONS. PCPN EVIDENT ON RGNL RADAR MOSAICS FM CVG-PAH ATTM.

18Z NAM SOLN AN OUTLIER PAINTING A STRIPE OF 0.10+ INCH QPF ACRS
DC METRO OVNGT-ELY FRI MRNG. MDL PHYSICS DO SUPPORT THE OUTPUT...
AS MAX LIFT COINCIDENT W/ DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE. HWVR...18Z
GFS AND LTST RAP SNOW HALF THE QPF...AND LTST RUNS FM LCL WRFS
/ARW4 AND NMM12G/ SHOW A QUARTER THE QPF. WITH THAT IN MIND AS
WELL AS QUICK MVMT...AM DOUBTING THAT AN INCH OF SNW WL BE FOUND
BY FRI MRNG. TIMING DOES LOOK TO BE COINCIDENT WITH THE BGNG OF
RUSH HR...SO THAT DOESNT MEAN WE WL BE TROUBLE-FREE.

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RAP really hasnt had massive shifts. It's been keeping the heaviest axis pretty much in the same spot. It's overall a bit drier than earlier but not sure anyone was really expecting to get 2-3"+. Someone should at least get mini banded for a bit imo.

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RAP really hasnt had massive shifts. It's been keeping the heaviest axis pretty much in the same spot. It's overall a bit drier than earlier but not sure anyone was really expecting to get 2-3"+. Someone should at least get mini banded for a bit imo....and the rest of us massively disappointed as we have become so used to being

fixed

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RAP really hasnt had massive shifts. It's been keeping the heaviest axis pretty much in the same spot. It's overall a bit drier than earlier but not sure anyone was really expecting to get 2-3"+. Someone should at least get mini banded for a bit imo.

 

That's what it looks like in terms of uvv.  The sounding do look interesting in terms of having a lapse rate that is moist adiabatic.  The worry with the RAP is that it will continue to get a little drier each run. 

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