usedtobe Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The 18Z NAm trended wetter for tonight, Looks like it has .10.so someone has decent chance at get a 0.50 if half right. If it were really trustworthy and didn't have a slightly wet bias, maybe an inch. I'd put that on the lower end of probabilities but it's not impossible for it to happen. It will be interesting to see how wet the GFS ends up. Clipper are tricky little beasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The 18Z NAm trended wetter for tonight, Looks like it has .10.so someone has decent chance at get a 0.50 if half right. If it were really trustworthy and didn't have a slightly wet bias, maybe an inch. I'd put that on the lower end of probabilities but it's not impossible for it to happen. It will be interesting to see how wet the GFS ends up. Clipper are tricky little beasts. temps are a good bit more iffy than last week.. hurts ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The 18Z NAm trended wetter for tonight, Looks like it has .10.so someone has decent chance at get a 0.50 if half right. If it were really trustworthy and didn't have a slightly wet bias, maybe an inch. I'd put that on the lower end of probabilities but it's not impossible for it to happen. It will be interesting to see how wet the GFS ends up. Clipper are tricky little beasts. GFS has the better stripe further north and west....Just one time I want to be Lexington Park MD or Bluemont VA and get 5.5" from a clipper when everyone else gets 0.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 temps are a good bit more iffy than last week.. hurts ratios? I didn't look at the sounding. If the GFS looks similarly wet, I will but until then I'm banking on the NAM overdoing it a little but hoping that it is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I didn't look at the sounding. If the GFS looks similarly wet, I will but until then I'm banking on the NAM overdoing it a little but hoping that it is right. RUC has 0.10" in one hour around 5am right over DC proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 GFS has the better stripe further north and west....Just one time I want to be Lexington Park MD or Bluemont VA and get 5.5" from a clipper when everyone else gets 0.8" You're not the only one. Clippers always produce such a small "jackpot" area that most of us miss the good stuff. I'm starting to wonder whether someone will see a stripe of an inch or two. It is a pretty nice vort. I wish it had more of a surface feature to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 You're not the only one. Clippers always produce such a small "jackpot" area that most of us miss the good stuff. I'm starting to wonder whether someone will see a stripe of an inch or two. It is a pretty nice vort. I wish it had more of a surface feature to work with. RAP says IAN sees 1-2" in 45 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 NWS forecast high tomorrow for here went from 38 to 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 RAP says IAN sees 1-2" in 45 minutes that might bust my rest of winter forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Kiss of death? Really? Since there's a string lined up over the next 4-5 days maybe change the title to cover all of them? That might trick the voodoo hex thing from cancelling tonight's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Kiss of death? Really? vigilance alert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Nice obs thread, I was waiting for this. Perhaps some location can pick up an inch under the core banding features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Kiss of death? Really? Since there's a string lined up over the next 4-5 days maybe change the title to cover all of them? That might trick the voodoo hex thing from cancelling tonight's. wes is such a weenie starting a clipper thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 temps are a good bit more iffy than last week.. hurts ratios? it's really cold above the surface where the snow is forming so the flakes won't be rimes. I think they'll be be dendrites mixed with plates. I'd guess the ratios would be 15-1 or so but wish Brian would come and tell me what the Roebber scheme is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 wes is such a weenie starting a clipper thread Lol- since Wes is involved...overperform! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 the 18z RAP gave DCA 0.18" before it cut off....20z looks like it tops that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 What lol? Remember the jan 5 2003 clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 the 18z RAP gave DCA 0.18" before it cut off....20z looks like it tops that we're due for a bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 the 18z RAP gave DCA 0.18" before it cut off....20z looks like it tops that I'm starting to feel it....is this the big one of the year? The mother of all storms so far? I said it before....get enough of these little buggers and a mild to modest surprise becomes more and more likely. At least for an area the size of the average county. Which county though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Unless you are under that one west to east band, this doesn't look like a widespread event but instead a quick line of snow. No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 21z RAP blows the f-uck up again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 20z totals are nice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Damn. 21z rap is a bit deeper with the surface low. Yea, I know it's weak but still. It drops 5mb through the pass. Interesting development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 I'm starting to feel it....is this the big one of the year? The mother of all storms so far? I said it before....get enough of these little buggers and a mild to modest surprise becomes more and more likely. At least for an area the size of the average county. Which county though? Last time when St Mary's and southern Calvert got the band. I'd like it to be my part of the county. It seems like it usually is to my south or north but I'm sure that is just my weenie perception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The shortwaves look really good to me for metros on everything I see imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 purty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Well, they've treated the Beltway and major roads in northern VA. No doubt the kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Im so sorry http://snowpocalypsedc.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Damn Sam! Everybody needs to run the 18z gfs 500 and 850 loops. 5 distinct chances of snow in 144 hours. Couple vorts look decent. I know they won't be resolved until short leads but still......this could be the snowiest week on years. Lolz. But no kidding either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Final Call 2" or bust except in the nipple of Calvert County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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