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February Pattern and Storm Discussion


POWERSTROKE

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The 0z euro was not far off for a lot of us on 3/6. It looks as if a trailing system phases w/ the lead around NC/SC border. The track is a little inland but looks to be a decent hit for east Tn./NC Mountains. Even N. Ga and extreme NW SC would see some snow. Minor shifts in the track on future runs could put a lot more of us in the game.

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Ummm...your QPF looks decent. Also it almost looks like the GFS is trying to form a lee trough in the upstate of sc again.

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

 

Well I have seen worse model runs this winter.....GSP looks like they are seeing what moto was seeing.

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...BEGINNING 12Z SATURDAY...THE CANADIANAND GFS HAVE A CLOSED 500MB LOW MOVING GENERALLY WEST TO EAST ACROSSOUR AREA ON SATURDAY.  THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AND IS THEFASTEST HAVING THE LOW CENTER NEAR MURPHY NC AT 12Z WHILE CANADIANIS OVER MEMPHIS ATTM. THE NEW ECMWF HAS A SMALL CLOSED FEATURE AT12Z OVER OAK RIDGE TN THEN HAS AN OPEN WAVE PATTERN FOR THE REST OFTHE EVOLUTION. THE 850-500MB LAPSE RATE IS RATHER NOTABLE WITH THEGFS AS IT SHOWS INTENSIFICATION AS THE LOW MOVES EAST HAVING 6.55C/KM OVER FRANKLIN NC AT 12Z SATURDAY AND A BROAD SW-NE CENTER OF7.0 C/KM AT 18Z SAT. THIS BECOMES 7.2C/KM AT 00Z SUNDAY OVERGREENSBORO.  THE ECMWF ALSO HAS INTENSIFYING LAPSE RATES BUT CARRIESTHE LOBE FARTHER SOUTH FROM NORTH GEORGIA AT 12Z SAT TO UPSTATE SCIN THE PM HOURS. A SIMILAR OCCURRENCE HAPPENED BACK ON FEB 16 WHENWE HAD MANY REPORTS OF THUNDER SNOW.  THE CANADIAN MODELS LOWREACHES THE WESTERN TIP OF NC AT 00Z SUNDAY AND GENERALLY FEEL THISIS TOO SLOW. 850MB TEMPS ARE -5 TO -7C SATURDAY ON AVERAGE FROM GFSTO ECMWF. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST...ALL PRECIP ENDS OVER OUR AREABY 12Z SUNDAY ON THE NEW ECMWF...HOWEVER...ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGYWILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON THE GFS ON SUNDAY BRINGING OURAREA ONE MORE SHOT OF LIGHT PRECIP.  THIS MAY BE OVERDONE ON THE GFSBUT WE ARE KEEPING SOME SLIGHT POP TO LOW END CHANCE OVER MTNS.  THECOLD UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.AFTER A WEEKEND WITH TEMPS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREAMONDAY PROVIDING TEMPS ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A LOW WILLBE CROSSING ARKANSAS AT 12Z TUESDAY ON THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS LOWFEATURE WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS ON TUESDAY STILL FORECASTTO BE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEWEST ECMWF IS TRENDINGSTRONGER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW SHARPLY DEEPENING THE LOW ASIT TRACKS JUST EAST OF OUR AREA IN MID WEEK.
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The 0z euro was not far off for a lot of us on 3/6. It looks as if a trailing system phases w/ the lead around NC/SC border. The track is a little inland but looks to be a decent hit for east Tn./NC Mountains. Even N. Ga and extreme NW SC would see some snow. Minor shifts in the track on future runs could put a lot more of us in the game.

 

In the past this is typically what we want to see, a Euro run that is over amped and thus NW only to trend SE as it got closer, but I have a feeling this storm is going to fizzle out too.  Ens mean looks good at this range.

 

00zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS192.gif

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Can someone gve me a summary of how things look now? Are we now counting out anything for this weeekend and looking ahead to the 3/6 now? Seems the models are all over the place and no one has a real clue what will happen.

well, where do we start. The storm this weekend is still on the table and looks slightly better with each run. The storn next weeks changes every 12 hours when the new model runs come out.
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Can someone gve me a summary of how things look now? Are we now counting out anything for this weeekend and looking ahead to the 3/6 now? Seems the models are all over the place and no one has a real clue what will happen.

I can pretty much say no one has a clue right now but no models are showing accumulating snow for our are at this time. And that is for both systems we've been tracking.

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For the 00z Euro, the snowfall map based on a 10:1 ratio from weatherbell actually leaves the majority of NC out of it. Only the mountains and border counties get snow.

I haven't seen snowfall maps but just looking at the run itself it looks like our friends in east Tn. do alright.

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Of course the NAM gets close to something big now in the later hours of it's run. Question for those with more knowledge. NAM brings a pretty energized vort swinging down through the plains and comes close to phasing with the energy trekking across the GOM...if this phased would could it lead to a bigger storm and possibly impact parts of the south? 

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Of course the NAM gets close to something big now in the later hours of it's run. Question for those with more knowledge. NAM brings a pretty energized vort swinging down through the plains and comes close to phasing with the energy trekking across the GOM...if this phased would could it lead to a bigger storm and possibly impact parts of the south?

Snowing in the Gulf, south of Tallahassee at 72. :)

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