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February Pattern and Storm Discussion


POWERSTROKE

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I'm at a loss...But I will say the energy coming in for the 6th looks to be further south this run.  Hopefully it stays that way.

 

Well the blocking is great this run, this can't go north, it has to go south...I know famous last words.  Crazy run, I think we can safely say this won't verify.

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The flow got very flat so it will just be a weak wave spitting out 0.1-0.2" of precip, maybe, this run was nuts, I am sure the ensembles will look much different.

with all the vorts diving into the eastern trough it just continues to deepen and keep the heights low. Without that broad upper trough holding on in the northeast this storm will pass by us to the north.
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It's a little comical, and a little bit frustrating when you have mets at odds. Robert is honking big time on a retro grading flow and extreme blocking. Meanwhile, back at the ranch......Larry Cosgrove is saying the blocking has been eliminated on the 0z (maybe he's taking about beyond March 7 bc it's clearly there before then) and only a modest chance of a storm for Appalachia and the east around the 7th.

I think you are going to see this upcoming period make some skilled mets look pretty silly one way or the other. A split flow of sorts to go along with blocking will create severe headaches.......for many. The good news is it also means things can pop up with little notice.

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It's a little comical, and a little bit frustrating when you have mets at odds. Robert is honking big time on a retro grading flow and extreme blocking. Meanwhile, back at the ranch......Larry Cosgrove is saying the blocking has been eliminated on the 0z (maybe he's taking about beyond March 7 bc it's clearly there before then) and only a modest chance of a storm for Appalachia and the east around the 7th.

I think you are going to see this upcoming period make some skilled mets look pretty silly one way or the other. A split flow of sorts to go along with blocking will create severe headaches.......for many. The good news is it also means things can pop up with little notice.

 

Day 10 on the GFS looks great, ridge in the east and trough in the west, we would finally warm up....the angel of mercy to this sucktastic winter.

 

00zgfs500mbHeightAnomalyNH240.gif

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The GGEM looks to be an all-around failure, aside for a little bit of snow for SW NC/NW SC from the weekend system.

 

EDIT: Despite the LP track, the GGEM might be snow for much of NC with the next week system (the 540 line is a bit hard to see), though it barely spits out any precip, so it's probably irrelevant.

 

Yeah it looks like a miller-b that transfers right over NC, that's exactly what the MA folks would want, we obviously need it to transfer over SC.  

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I am in agreement with Blacksburg on the weekend event. But would think it would be more serious outside of their warning area tbh. Taking it one storm at a time with a pattern like this.

 

Models coming in a few degrees colder at 850 mb with the expected several day cold snap this weekend and early next week. GFS/ensembles/ECMWF hinting at a disturbance scooting across the Gulf Coast states and into the Carolinas later Saturday. In the past...these types of features seemed to be resolved better as the event nears...and some of them end up becoming impactful systems. Because of this...and considering the overall pattern...did add some slt chance probability of precipitation across the NC counties as a start Sat and Sat night. There is enough cold air such that snow would be the dominant p type...
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Models coming in a few degrees colder at 850 mb with the expected several day cold snap this weekend and early next week. GFS/ensembles/ECMWF hinting at a disturbance scooting across the Gulf Coast states and into the Carolinas later Saturday. In the past...these types of features seemed to be resolved better as the event nears...and some of them end up becoming impactful systems. Because of this...and considering the overall pattern...did add some slt chance probability of precipitation across the NC counties as a start Sat and Sat night. There is enough cold air such that snow would be the dominant p type...

 

Very much agree in this type of setup.  If the models can hold or trend a little better with the 500mb look, the QPF should go up a bit as we draw closer (still 3-5 days away).

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Damn.  The Euro has some sort of Miller B scenario with our week-out storm and it's a beast.  I can't really tell where it transferred its energy to the Atlantic with just the 24-hour panels.  It had a 1012 mb low in GA at hr 168 and by 192 we had this.  Looks like it's a historic snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic.

 

00zeuro850mbtslpus192.gif

 

EDIT: Maybe it's not a Miller B.  It just may track from GA up through NC to Eastern VA.  I really don't know with just 24-hour panels.

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