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February Pattern and Storm Discussion


POWERSTROKE

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Well it is 84 hours on the NAM but it is in somewhat of agreement with the GFS. It brings some energy down and places it much further SW but it is a pretty energized piece. I'm starting to get excited about this weekend. 

 

Yeah, it looks stronger and it's even closed off in southern MO/northern AR at hr 84.  It looks like a good setup to me, but I may be missing something, so I don't want to say for sure.  The energy looks further north than the 12z GFS, too.

 

namnamer084500vortht.gif

 

It will be interesting to see if the 18z DGEX gives us a weenie run.

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I'm afraid the orientation of the trough will be too much for this system to overcome. Last year we really did not have any viable threats but this year has resulted in several winter systems but for each one we have missed a widespread significant event because something somewhere was not quite right. I'm afraid that is happening again this weekend. Frustrating yes, but normal for these parts.

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I'm afraid the orientation of the trough will be too much for this system to overcome. Last year we really did not have any viable threats but this year has resulted in several winter systems but for each one we have missed a widespread significant event because something somewhere was not quite right. I'm afraid that is happening again this weekend. Frustrating yes, but normal for these parts.

 

It has been the past two years. I hope we get out of this pattern soon and this isn't just an example of winters to come.

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I'm afraid the orientation of the trough will be too much for this system to overcome. Last year we really did not have any viable threats but this year has resulted in several winter systems but for each one we have missed a widespread significant event because something somewhere was not quite right. I'm afraid that is happening again this weekend. Frustrating yes, but normal for these parts.

 

I agree this will probably not be widespread but if we can get a redux of the other weekend's snow I'll be happy. The same things were said about that one as well. The fact is almost everything has trended wetter and stronger this winter. This time we have the cold so I'll take my chances. 

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RAH long range 

:popcorn:

 

 

THE POSSIBLE WINTER TYPE SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE LOOKINGMORE AND MORE INTERESTING BY THE MODEL RUN. THE LATEST GFS SUGGESTSA MID/UPPER LEVEL "CUT OFF" LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSIVELY DIVING ESEINTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SAT-SUN... THENNE OVER NC SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS SOLUTION HAS SOMESUPPORT FROM THE LATEST NAM AND EC... THOSE OPERATIONAL MODELS AREWEAKER AND NORTHWARD WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LOW TRACKCLOSER TO THE NC/VA BORDER... UNFAVORABLE SOLUTIONS FOR ASIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT. GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY... WE LIKETHE CURRENT LOW CHANCE POP FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS CURRENTLYADVERTISED FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY... WITH AT LEAST TRENDSSUGGESTING MORE IN THE WAY OF WINTERY WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THISEVENT. MUCH MORE ON THIS POTENTIAL DURING THE COMING DAYS.

 

 

& MHX 

:ee:

 

 

ANOMALOUS DEEP TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE THIS COMING WEEKEND ANDTEMPS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN CLIMO. HAVE UNDERSHOT COOLESTECMWF MOS GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO WARM BIAS TOWARDS CLIMOIN MOS OUTPUT. HIGH WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH LOWS NEARFREEZING. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SAT INTO SATNIGHT AS DEEP UPPER LOW ROTATES THROUGH E NC...THOUGH ATTM MOISTUREPRESENCE IS QUESTIONABLE AS NO REAL SFC FEATURE IS PRESENT. GFSCONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN SPINNING UP SFC LOW NEAR THE COAST...OPER GFS LACKS SUPPORT FROM ITS 26/00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN...OPER ECM ANDECM ENSEMBLE MEAN SO HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP NO HIGHER THAN 20 POPSIN GRIDS. IF PRECIP OCCURS...COULD CERTAINLY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIXINLAND AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS COULD BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORTTHE WINTRY MIX SAT NIGHT. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE TEMPS WILL BE JUSTWARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP ALL RAIN ALONG THE COAST. UPPER TROUGHWILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. A SLIGHT WARMUPPOSSIBLE BY TUE AS COLD UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION...THOUGH INDICATIONS ARE TO BE REPLACED BY REINFORCING COLD BY MIDNEXT WEEK AS INDICIES INDICATE A CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMP PATTERN.
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RAH long range 

:popcorn:

 

 

THE POSSIBLE WINTER TYPE SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE LOOKINGMORE AND MORE INTERESTING BY THE MODEL RUN. THE LATEST GFS SUGGESTSA MID/UPPER LEVEL "CUT OFF" LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSIVELY DIVING ESEINTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SAT-SUN... THENNE OVER NC SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS SOLUTION HAS SOMESUPPORT FROM THE LATEST NAM AND EC... THOSE OPERATIONAL MODELS AREWEAKER AND NORTHWARD WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LOW TRACKCLOSER TO THE NC/VA BORDER... UNFAVORABLE SOLUTIONS FOR ASIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT. GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY... WE LIKETHE CURRENT LOW CHANCE POP FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS CURRENTLYADVERTISED FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY... WITH AT LEAST TRENDSSUGGESTING MORE IN THE WAY OF WINTERY WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THISEVENT. MUCH MORE ON THIS POTENTIAL DURING THE COMING DAYS.

 

They also sound interested in the potential storm a few days afterwards.

 

 

 

THE GENERAL PATTERN FOR OUR REGION WILL BE FOR PROGRESSIVELY COLDER

TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS (EITHER

NUISANCE OR OTHERWISE)... ONE THIS WEEKEND... AND ANOTHER NEXT TUE

NIGHT OR WED. THE LATTER OF THE TWO LOOK MORE PROBLEMATIC... WITH

THE CURRENT TRACK/STRENGTH ADVERTISED BY THE LAST 2-3 RUNS OF THE

OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN SUPPORTIVE OF A WINTER STORM POTENTIAL. THIS

IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY COLD AIR IN PLACE BEFORE

THE SYSTEM COURTESY OF COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED IN A

FAVORABLE POSITION AND OF FORECAST FAVORABLE STRENGTH TO DELIVER

CAA/DAA INTO OUR PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION... ALTHOUGH AGAIN

PROGRESSIVELY MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION ARRIVES.

WE WILL NOT CARRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES NOW OUT DAYS 6-7 AS DETAILS

WITH ANY SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT CAN NOT BE IRONED OUT.

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Well, I want to wish all of you north of here the best of luck in getting the weather you want before spring arrives!

 

Looks like the GFS and Euro have squashed my hopes for a late good freeze and maybe a novelty flake, so I'll be vicariously enjoying/nail biting, through you all!

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RAH long range 

:popcorn:

 

 

THE POSSIBLE WINTER TYPE SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE LOOKINGMORE AND MORE INTERESTING BY THE MODEL RUN. THE LATEST GFS SUGGESTSA MID/UPPER LEVEL "CUT OFF" LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSIVELY DIVING ESEINTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SAT-SUN... THENNE OVER NC SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS SOLUTION HAS SOMESUPPORT FROM THE LATEST NAM AND EC... THOSE OPERATIONAL MODELS AREWEAKER AND NORTHWARD WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LOW TRACKCLOSER TO THE NC/VA BORDER... UNFAVORABLE SOLUTIONS FOR ASIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT. GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY... WE LIKETHE CURRENT LOW CHANCE POP FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS CURRENTLYADVERTISED FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY... WITH AT LEAST TRENDSSUGGESTING MORE IN THE WAY OF WINTERY WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THISEVENT. MUCH MORE ON THIS POTENTIAL DURING THE COMING DAYS.

 

This is the best setup we have had all winter for snow. Not only are the models showing it, but more importantly we have the meterological ingrediants in place for it. If we don't get at least some snow out of this, then we just have the worst luck ever.

 

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