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February Pattern and Storm Discussion


POWERSTROKE

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Where is the precipitation coming from on this run?  Is it because the low closed off tapping gulf moisture or is it from the lee trough forming after the surface low forms in the Atlantic? 

 

The low is strong enough that it's creating it's own moisture from the atmosphere. Much like the last snow we received. 

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Nice saturation. Looks identical to the last event.

 

Date: 5 day AVN valid 12Z SUN  3 MAR 13Station: KCLTLatitude:   35.22Longitude: -80.93-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------  0 1000   106                                                                 SFC  988   206  -0.5  -1.4  94  0.9  -0.8 352  12 273.7 274.3 273.0 283.2  3.50  2  950   515  -2.7  -3.7  93  1.0  -3.1 359  27 274.5 275.0 272.8 282.8  3.05  3  900   942  -4.2  -4.8  96  0.6  -4.4  11  23 277.2 277.7 274.2 285.4  2.97  4  850  1392  -5.7  -6.1  97  0.3  -5.8  12  11 280.2 280.6 275.7 288.2  2.86  5  800  1865  -8.1  -8.7  95  0.6  -8.3 319   5 282.5 282.9 276.5 289.6  2.47  6  750  2364 -11.0 -12.3  90  1.3 -11.3 286   5 284.6 285.0 276.9 290.4  1.99  7  700  2890 -14.9 -16.0  91  1.1 -15.2 293   5 286.0 286.3 277.0 290.7  1.57  8  650  3446 -19.0 -19.4  97  0.4 -19.1 323   6 287.5 287.7 277.3 291.3  1.26  9  600  4037 -23.4 -23.6  98  0.2 -23.4   9   7 289.1 289.2 277.6 292.0  0.95 10  550  4667 -28.6 -28.8  99  0.1 -28.6  45  12 290.1 290.2 277.7 292.2  0.65 11  500  5340 -35.1 -35.2  99  0.1 -35.1  52  13 290.3 290.3 277.4 291.5  0.38 12  450  6068 -38.2 -43.9  55  5.7 -38.5 294   6 295.3 295.3 279.5 295.9  0.17 13  400  6877 -39.3 -59.2  10 20.0 -40.0 254  21 303.9 303.9 283.0 304.1  0.03 14  350  7787 -41.3 -65.1   6 23.7 -42.0 244  34 313.0 313.0 286.4 313.1  0.02 15  300  8829 -43.3 -63.0  10 19.8 -43.9 236  48 324.4 324.4 290.1 324.5  0.03 16  250 10047 -46.3 -67.0   8 20.7 -46.9 232  59 337.2 337.2 293.6 337.3  0.02 17  200 11523 -47.9 -71.6   5 23.7 -48.5 233  66 356.9 356.9 298.1 356.9  0.01 18  150 13407 -51.4 -78.0   3 26.7 -51.9 235  67 381.6 381.6 302.5 381.6  0.01 19  100 16011 -55.7 -81.4   3 25.7 -56.2 240  49 420.2 420.2 307.7 420.2  0.01TRP                                             0                              WND                                             0                              
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The low is strong enough that it's creating it's own moisture from the atmosphere. Much like the last snow we received.

I thought we got that last snow because of a lee trough or mesolow that formed to our west. That's my question is it the same thing or is it because its a closed low. I don't think the last event was closed off.

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Looks great for you guys, the snow hole continues for RDU.

This is actually one of the first runs to show an appreciable moisture return off the Atlantic, so I would take the gaps with a grain of salt. Any improvement we see in orientation over the next 3-4 days will up amounts, conversely, it could go to crap quickly. Kinda right on that line ATM, but we have backed away from the edge by a step or two. Would like to see the EC on board, GEM had a few heavier bullets inland but looked more spotty and convective from the UL energy, rather than moisture coming off the ocean.
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Looks great for you guys, the snow hole continues for RDU.

12zgfs850mbTSLPp06_county126.gif

are we talking about the sunday-monday time frame and will asheville finally cash in a little.  i hope its coming out of the gulf.  we're to far west to get anything from the coast even though when the northeast gets a coastal storm it sure looks like the moisture makes it further to the west than when a low forms on the carolina coast.

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Of course GA is too warm for sticking snow except in the mountains perhaps. I may however take some sort or short road trip to maybe AVL or at least NE Georgia on Saturday IF this new GFS is correct, want to see the Doc come on board. We need that strong short wave to deepen as much as possible to the west and take the perfect track, probably too much to hope for but not impossible.

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Finer details to be worked out, but this is really trending well for the weekend.  HPC now shows the inverted trough axis extending back into Tennessee, which matches the model trends of having the 500mb low close off sooner and farther southwest

 

 

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Finer details to be worked out, but this is really trending well for the weekend.  HPC now shows the inverted trough axis extending back into Tennessee, which matches the model trends of having the 500mb low close off sooner and farther southwest

 

 

 

I sure wish there more GEFS members showing precip, granted I didn't look that hard at them but only a 2 or 3 had precip in NC.

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The Cumberland Plateau is looking pretty good for accumulating snow this weekend in my opinion.  Euro and GFS in agreement.  Surface temps are marginal in the valley but 850s are frigid.  I'm expecting several periods of snow showers Friday through Sunday even in Knoxville.  Hoping to see temps trend just a tad colder so we can milk more snow from this little event.

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