burgertime Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Where is the precipitation coming from on this run? Is it because the low closed off tapping gulf moisture or is it from the lee trough forming after the surface low forms in the Atlantic? The low is strong enough that it's creating it's own moisture from the atmosphere. Much like the last snow we received. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Looks somewhat similar to the Jan 2003 snow storm. The good news is each run is increasingly wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Nice saturation. Looks identical to the last event. Date: 5 day AVN valid 12Z SUN 3 MAR 13Station: KCLTLatitude: 35.22Longitude: -80.93-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 106 SFC 988 206 -0.5 -1.4 94 0.9 -0.8 352 12 273.7 274.3 273.0 283.2 3.50 2 950 515 -2.7 -3.7 93 1.0 -3.1 359 27 274.5 275.0 272.8 282.8 3.05 3 900 942 -4.2 -4.8 96 0.6 -4.4 11 23 277.2 277.7 274.2 285.4 2.97 4 850 1392 -5.7 -6.1 97 0.3 -5.8 12 11 280.2 280.6 275.7 288.2 2.86 5 800 1865 -8.1 -8.7 95 0.6 -8.3 319 5 282.5 282.9 276.5 289.6 2.47 6 750 2364 -11.0 -12.3 90 1.3 -11.3 286 5 284.6 285.0 276.9 290.4 1.99 7 700 2890 -14.9 -16.0 91 1.1 -15.2 293 5 286.0 286.3 277.0 290.7 1.57 8 650 3446 -19.0 -19.4 97 0.4 -19.1 323 6 287.5 287.7 277.3 291.3 1.26 9 600 4037 -23.4 -23.6 98 0.2 -23.4 9 7 289.1 289.2 277.6 292.0 0.95 10 550 4667 -28.6 -28.8 99 0.1 -28.6 45 12 290.1 290.2 277.7 292.2 0.65 11 500 5340 -35.1 -35.2 99 0.1 -35.1 52 13 290.3 290.3 277.4 291.5 0.38 12 450 6068 -38.2 -43.9 55 5.7 -38.5 294 6 295.3 295.3 279.5 295.9 0.17 13 400 6877 -39.3 -59.2 10 20.0 -40.0 254 21 303.9 303.9 283.0 304.1 0.03 14 350 7787 -41.3 -65.1 6 23.7 -42.0 244 34 313.0 313.0 286.4 313.1 0.02 15 300 8829 -43.3 -63.0 10 19.8 -43.9 236 48 324.4 324.4 290.1 324.5 0.03 16 250 10047 -46.3 -67.0 8 20.7 -46.9 232 59 337.2 337.2 293.6 337.3 0.02 17 200 11523 -47.9 -71.6 5 23.7 -48.5 233 66 356.9 356.9 298.1 356.9 0.01 18 150 13407 -51.4 -78.0 3 26.7 -51.9 235 67 381.6 381.6 302.5 381.6 0.01 19 100 16011 -55.7 -81.4 3 25.7 -56.2 240 49 420.2 420.2 307.7 420.2 0.01TRP 0 WND 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 The low is strong enough that it's creating it's own moisture from the atmosphere. Much like the last snow we received. I thought we got that last snow because of a lee trough or mesolow that formed to our west. That's my question is it the same thing or is it because its a closed low. I don't think the last event was closed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Looks great for you guys, the snow hole continues for RDU.This is actually one of the first runs to show an appreciable moisture return off the Atlantic, so I would take the gaps with a grain of salt. Any improvement we see in orientation over the next 3-4 days will up amounts, conversely, it could go to crap quickly. Kinda right on that line ATM, but we have backed away from the edge by a step or two. Would like to see the EC on board, GEM had a few heavier bullets inland but looked more spotty and convective from the UL energy, rather than moisture coming off the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 WXSOUTH: The snowiest part of Winter lies ahead for TN, MS,AL,SC,NC,VA, maybe KY/GA. March to be cold and stormy first half. #sewx #snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 As with many past storms we have to be ready for the model(s) to initially show a storm, then potentially lose it, and then potentially trend it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Looks great for you guys, the snow hole continues for RDU. I can't tell if I get anything at my house because that damn black X is in the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Looks great for you guys, the snow hole continues for RDU. are we talking about the sunday-monday time frame and will asheville finally cash in a little. i hope its coming out of the gulf. we're to far west to get anything from the coast even though when the northeast gets a coastal storm it sure looks like the moisture makes it further to the west than when a low forms on the carolina coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 That's the x factor! If x equals 0,then you'll know its right! I can't tell if I get anything at my house because that damn black X is in the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Of course GA is too warm for sticking snow except in the mountains perhaps. I may however take some sort or short road trip to maybe AVL or at least NE Georgia on Saturday IF this new GFS is correct, want to see the Doc come on board. We need that strong short wave to deepen as much as possible to the west and take the perfect track, probably too much to hope for but not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Finer details to be worked out, but this is really trending well for the weekend. HPC now shows the inverted trough axis extending back into Tennessee, which matches the model trends of having the 500mb low close off sooner and farther southwest http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/822/9khwbgconus.gif/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Finer details to be worked out, but this is really trending well for the weekend. HPC now shows the inverted trough axis extending back into Tennessee, which matches the model trends of having the 500mb low close off sooner and farther southwest I sure wish there more GEFS members showing precip, granted I didn't look that hard at them but only a 2 or 3 had precip in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Euro has light precip over GA @102...this is a good trend for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Euro has light precip over GA @102...this is a good trend for the Euro. Yeah but the vort doesn't look closed, although I don't have the vort maps and just looking at the heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Euro isn't going to get it done, GFS has been good at this range for our area, let's hope it's correct again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 ...and now it's gone. Still a baby step I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 burger how do you get the euro early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 What about days 8-10? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Look at how different the GFS and Euro are at day 4... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 What about days 8-10? TW At day 6 there is a low just north of the Tx panhandle, a little weaker and a little farther north than the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Not going to be a good run for they day 8/9 threat, has a dual low, one over MO another over southern Tx. It's not digging enough so the primary will probably end up being north of us. Blocking looks weaker on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 12Z Doc has the 3/5-6 low even further north based on hour 174. Not the trend most would want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Huge difference by day 7, much much weaker and farther north with the next system early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Huge difference by day 7, much much weaker and farther north with the next system early next week. But.................but.................the blocking? I can't see the maps right now, but it sounds very GFS'ish' to be honest. Could the GFS be leading the way once again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Euro isn't going to get it done, GFS has been good at this range for our area, let's hope it's correct again. We sure have heard the bold statement also this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 The Cumberland Plateau is looking pretty good for accumulating snow this weekend in my opinion. Euro and GFS in agreement. Surface temps are marginal in the valley but 850s are frigid. I'm expecting several periods of snow showers Friday through Sunday even in Knoxville. Hoping to see temps trend just a tad colder so we can milk more snow from this little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 If the Euro is right, we better cash in this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 The Greenland ridge gets pulverized this run. Which sucks - cause that massive bomb of cold looks ready to come south if the block were to hold. Edit: And then it comes back with a vengeance, along with another blizzard for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Ok, so on a serious note, if we can't score with the NAO looking like this................we should probably just go ahead and hang our winter by the neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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