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February Pattern and Storm Discussion

POWERSTROKE

By POWERSTROKE,
in Southeastern States

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Appreciate the Euro Weekly updates this winter GA

 

YW. To better put these Euro weeklies into perspective for the SE US, week 2 as a whole (3/4-10) is near mid Jan. normals for the SE coast to as cold as ~3-4 degrees below normal for mid-Jan. well inland! Of course, the individual coldest days would be quite a bit colder than that. Even week 3 (3/11-17) is still near mid Feb. normal levels with the individual coldest days probably a few degrees below the normals for mid Jan.! Finally, in week 4 (3/18-24), the SE returns to mid to late March levels for the week as a whole.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Folks,

 Per 0Z Doc, the 3/5-6 storm is even a little further north than the 12Z run. Per the clown, all of the 1"+ snow is now confined to far NE TN and NC with the heaviest (4-6") confined to the WNC mtns and near the NC/VA border. Brick gets ~2-3". 

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

For this weekend, Euro looked quite a bit better at 500mb, but didn't appear to produce much, if any QPF.  Canadian closes off a 500mb low in northern Alabama at hr108, then it strengthens a bit and treks slowly east (http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_0zA/cmcloop.html).  Good model agreement for this far out.  Would not be surprised to see this end up as a light to moderate snow event for portions of the Carolinas.

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Burger and grit are gonna love the 6z gfs. I like how the gfs is closing off at h5 back in west tenn. This run even pops a 850 low right on the coast.

 

Yep just looked at it. These are wonderful trends but something tells me much like the last storm each run is going to put the max in a totally different spot. Today it's CLT tomorrow it'll be your back yard and by Sunday it will be RDU  :weenie: . Either way it's a start. Hopefully Euro can get on board as well. 

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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted

GSP is starting to grab onto the NWFS events for the latter part of the week.

 

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...AS WE HEAD TOWARD MARCH...IT LOOKS LIKEWE ARE HEADING TOWARD WINTER...AT LEAST OVER THE NC MTNS NEAR THE TNBORDER. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY OVER THEUPPER OH VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW MORE SW TO W ACROSS THEWESTERN CAROLINAS DURING MOST OF THE DAY DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF THEREALLY COLD AIR. HOWEVER...A LARGE VORT LOBE SHOULD PINWHEEL AROUNDTHE UPPER LOW AND CROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ANDEARLY EVENING. THAT FEATURE WILL BE THE VANGUARD OF THE COOLER AIRAND WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILLSERVE TO CRANK UP THE NW FLOW SNOW MAKING MACHINE. POP WAS RAMPED UPINTO THE LIKELY RANGE NEAR THE TN BORDER AND KEPT THERE THROUGHTHURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW AND MOISTURE REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR THEPRODUCTION OF SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATIONS COULD END UP BEINGSIGNIFICANT IN THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR THE TN BORDER...BUTTHE DURATION WILL BE LONG ENOUGH THAT OUR WARNING CRITERIA MIGHT NOTBE MET. WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH FOR THIS EVENT BECAUSE OF THEDURATION V. ACCUM ISSUE...BUT PLAN TO HIT IT HARD IN THE HWO. SOMEOF THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REACH A BIT DEEPER INTO THE MTNS THURSDAYNIGHT WHEN MOISTURE IS A BIT DEEPER. E OF THE MTNS...IT SEEMSDOUBTFUL THAT ANY SHOWERS WILL BREACH CONTAINMENT AND SURVIVE E OFTHE BLUE RIDGE. INSTEAD...IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH A PARTLYCLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAYAND THEN BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AS THE COLDER AIR REALLY TAKES HOLD.
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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

RAH introduced 30 pops for RN/SN in to the grids Saturday with the overnight package.

 

 

I really like the trends. You guys east of me might really cash in on this one. 

 

 

6Z GFS though erases the blocking after next week.  That's not good. 

 

MKeEHEql.gif

 

Looks like we better cash in this weekend if we want to see something.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

Folks,

 Per 0Z Doc, the 3/5-6 storm is even a little further north than the 12Z run. Per the clown, all of the 1"+ snow is now confined to far NE TN and NC with the heaviest (4-6") confined to the WNC mtns and near the NC/VA border. Brick gets ~2-3". 

 

Better than nothing if it actually sticks around for more than 12 hours. But I really want a good half foot or more of snow.

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

Posted
Posted

I'm liking the trends of this system on Saturday.  I know it's not a blockbuster but getting any flakes is a win this winter.  So far the trends have been to dig that shortwave a little further west for the past few runs.  Saturday is looking pretty decent for snow showers across N AL, N GA, TN and most of N SC and  NC.  Maybe this will spark a coastal...who knows at this point.  At least I think the air will be cold enough for a snow P-Type.

 

GFS actually shows decent moisture across N GA from 6z Saturday to 6z Sunday.

 

Date: 4 day AVN valid 6Z SAT  2 MAR 13Station: 34.59,-83.93Latitude:   34.59Longitude: -83.93-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------  0 1000   125                                                                 SFC  957   480  -0.2  -0.9  95  0.7  -0.4 315   6 276.4 277.0 274.9 286.7  3.75  2  950   538   0.6  -0.9  90  1.5  -0.0 319   8 277.8 278.4 275.7 288.1  3.75  3  900   972  -0.6  -3.4  82  2.7  -1.7 346  10 280.8 281.4 276.7 290.1  3.31  4  850  1427  -3.3  -5.8  83  2.5  -4.2  26   6 282.7 283.2 277.2 291.0  2.92  5  800  1904  -5.8  -7.3  89  1.5  -6.4 116   1 284.9 285.4 278.1 292.9  2.76  6  750  2408  -8.1  -9.5  89  1.4  -8.5 268   5 287.8 288.3 279.1 295.1  2.48  7  700  2942 -10.0 -13.8  74  3.8 -11.1 253  11 291.5 291.8 280.1 297.1  1.88  8  650  3511 -12.6 -25.9  32 13.2 -15.3 251  17 294.7 294.8 280.0 297.0  0.71  9  600  4118 -15.4 -34.1  19 18.7 -18.4 247  26 298.3 298.4 281.1 299.5  0.35 10  550  4770 -19.6 -32.8  30 13.1 -21.7 241  32 300.8 300.9 282.3 302.3  0.44 11  500  5469 -25.2 -35.3  39 10.1 -26.5 235  37 302.3 302.3 282.8 303.5  0.38 12  450  6224 -31.6 -36.7  60  5.1 -32.1 237  43 303.6 303.6 283.3 304.8  0.37 13  400  7047 -37.0 -42.7  56  5.7 -37.4 242  56 306.9 306.9 284.4 307.7  0.22 14  350  7961 -41.0 -55.0  21 14.0 -41.6 242  83 313.4 313.5 286.6 313.7  0.06

 

 

Date: 5 day AVN valid 6Z SUN  3 MAR 13Station: 34.59,-83.93Latitude:   34.59Longitude: -83.93-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------  0 1000   104                                                                 SFC  954   480   0.2  -0.5  95  0.7  -0.0 319   8 277.1 277.7 275.5 287.7  3.87  2  950   517   0.4  -0.7  92  1.1  -0.1 321  10 277.6 278.2 275.7 288.1  3.82  3  900   950  -1.8  -4.0  85  2.2  -2.6 344  20 279.7 280.2 275.9 288.5  3.16  4  850  1402  -4.2  -7.3  79  3.1  -5.3   1  20 281.7 282.2 276.2 289.1  2.60  5  800  1878  -6.9 -10.1  78  3.2  -7.9 358  15 283.8 284.1 276.7 290.2  2.22  6  750  2378 -10.5 -12.8  83  2.3 -11.1 351  11 285.2 285.6 277.0 290.8  1.90  7  700  2905 -14.3 -15.7  89  1.4 -14.6 353   7 286.7 287.0 277.4 291.5  1.61  8  650  3463 -18.3 -19.1  94  0.8 -18.5  42   5 288.2 288.5 277.7 292.2  1.30  9  600  4055 -23.5 -24.0  96  0.4 -23.6  53  12 288.9 289.0 277.5 291.7  0.92 10  550  4684 -27.9 -31.2  73  3.3 -28.3  44   9 291.0 291.1 278.0 292.7  0.51
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GreensboroWx

GreensboroWx

Posted
Posted

Blocking that is being shown as strong as it is on the modeling won't break down that easily SnowNiner. At least past occurrences say that it won't.  Besides, it's an off hour run in the long range. I would pay more attention to the suddenly rock solid weeklies when judging the block out past day 7.

 

I was getting ready to write the same.....

 

The long range is in mid-March, though. It takes quite a storm to generate anything the later we go. 

 

I would focus more on the upcoming systems this weekend and then next week. This may be where we finally "cash in."

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GreensboroWx

GreensboroWx

Posted
Posted

The Weeklies and CFS look really cold through atleast the 15th.  To be honest after these two upcoming potential events I hope we torch, I am ready for spring.

 

 

Yep, I agree. I live in the south (north south) for a reason!!  I like cold and snowy as much as anyone, but I REALLY look forward to the spring and thunderstorms!

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

From WxSouth on facebook:

Still Watching the retrograding flow in the weather models, with building southern Greenland Block. Now the models are beginning to "see" this unusual pattern and are showing some signs of energy cutting southward and this is when we'll have to really pay close attention to what "could" happen. The latest trends are for energy to dig southeast toward Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama areas and possi...bly close off. If it happens, and does so in time before exiting the Southeast Coast, then a storm would form. It's too early to say yet. The highest threat right now for the weekend storm is the eastern Carolinas and eastern Virginia, but that could change to include more. Even after this threat, there are more showing up several days later.

 

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted

Blocking that is being shown as strong as it is on the modeling won't break down that easily SnowNiner. At least past occurrences say that it won't.  Besides, it's an off hour run in the long range. I would pay more attention to the suddenly rock solid weeklies when judging the block out past day 7.

 

Yeah I kinda figured it's just the 6z run but at the same time I thought other runs kept the block strong through mid March; just hoping it's not the beginning of a trend.  The longer we can hold out, the more window we have for one more swing at the plate.  Makes sense though that the run giving CLT a nice little snow is the outlier!!

 

Bad pollen alergies, wish we could skip spring right to summer...

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GreensboroWx

GreensboroWx

Posted
Posted

Yeah I kinda figured it's just the 6z run but at the same time I thought other runs kept the block strong through mid March; just hoping it's not the beginning of a trend.  The longer we can hold out, the more window we have for one more swing at the plate.  Makes sense though that the run giving CLT a nice little snow is the outlier!!

 

Bad pollen alergies, wish we could skip spring right to summer...

 

My experience has seen the biggest storms often occur just before/after a large block breaks down. I have no idea if this will happen, but it's something to definitely watch.

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

I was getting ready to write the same.....

 

The long range is in mid-March, though. It takes quite a storm to generate anything the later we go. 

 

I would focus more on the upcoming systems this weekend and then next week. This may be where we finally "cash in."

 

I agree.  This weekend holds promise for some, and next week may hold a more significant and more widespread opportunity.

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

Yeah I kinda figured it's just the 6z run but at the same time I thought other runs kept the block strong through mid March; just hoping it's not the beginning of a trend.  The longer we can hold out, the more window we have for one more swing at the plate.  Makes sense though that the run giving CLT a nice little snow is the outlier!!

 

Bad pollen alergies, wish we could skip spring right to summer...

 

If the pattern develops as currently projected, we may go down swinging, but.......................we should have multiple pitches to hit.  Just gotta connect on one and who knows, maybe we hit a couple out of the park.

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