February Pattern and Storm Discussion

[pcbjr]

Wow at how cold the euro ensembles are at day 15!

 

Can you post a link or a graphic?

[GaWx]

 For 3/1-5, the GFS (and the Euro to a lesser extent) have warmed considerably despite still looking cold. I'm suspecting the good ole GFS cold bias has been doing its thing. At KATL per MeteoStar, the coldest run, the 2/23 6Z run, was a very cold 31 F, an amazing 20 F below normal!! At the time, I remember saying to be wary of the cold bias and that it being 5 F too cold would still give KATL a 36 F, the 2nd coldest 3/1-5 since 1930. After that very cold, there were a couple of runs near 33-34. Then 36-7's. The 18Z GFS is up to 38 F! How about them apples? However, 38 F is still quite cold (13 F below normal). Will it warm even further? I suspect not much and that it may reverse back down a little on some upcoming runs.

[franklin NCwx]

Can you post a link or a graphic?

sorry its a paid site. But its amazing how at day 15 for a 51 member ensemble mean to have such strong negative departures.

[weatherlover]

Any word on the euro weeklies yet???

[pcbjr]

 For 3/1-5, the GFS (and the Euro to a lesser extent) have warmed considerably despite still looking cold. I'm suspecting the good ole GFS cold bias has been doing its thing. At KATL per MeteoStar, the coldest run, the 2/23 6Z run, was a very cold 31 F, an amazing 20 F below normal!! At the time, I remember saying to be wary of the cold bias and that it being 5 F too cold would still give KATL a 36 F, the 2nd coldest 3/1-5 since 1930. After that very cold, there were a couple of runs near 33-34. Then 36-7's. The 18Z GFS is up to 38 F! How about them apples? However, 38 F is still quite cold (13 F below normal). Will it warm even further? I suspect not much and that it may reverse back down a little on some upcoming runs.

FWIW - MeteoStar here was a tad colder on 18Z - but then, that is 18Z.

[FallsLake]

Looks like RAH thinks the extended has potential. Last part of the extended discussion:

 

WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY...
THE EUROPEAN OPERATIONAL MODEL ALONG WITH THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN WERE
FAVORED IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD FROM WED-SUN. A PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES... WITH
THE COLDEST AIR EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
STILL A LOW CHANCE OF A COASTAL STORM DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND THE NORTH
ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ARE FOREST TO BECOME STRONGLY NEGATIVE DAYS
6-10... WITH CORRESPONDING POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES SPREADING FROM
GREENLAND WESTWARD INTO FAR EASTERN CANADA IN THE HIGHER
LATITUDES... SUPPORTING COASTAL DEVELOPMENT OFF THE EAST COAST SAT
OR SUNDAY. JUST HOW FAR WEST THIS SYSTEM CAN DEVELOP WILL MEAN
EITHER DRY AND COLDER OR POSSIBLY WHITE AND COLDER OVER THE WEEKEND.
REGARDLESS... THE EASTERN TROUGH AND FORECAST HEIGHT ANOMALIES
SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SAT-MON.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...

MILD AND PARTLY SUNNY WEDNESDAY...HIGHS 58-65. WESTERLY WINDS 10-20
MPH. PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COLDER. LOWS IN
THE 20S TO AROUND 30. HIGHS 50-55 THURS...AND 45-50 FRI.

SAT-SUN...IMPORTANT PERIOD AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...SOME COASTAL LOW POTENTIAL. WE WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT THIS PATTERN WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
COLD WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S (NEAR 50 SANDHILLS).

MONDAY...COLD AND DRY. LOWS IN THE 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S.

 

[GaWx]

Any word on the euro weeklies yet???

 

 I've been told that the have not been distributed to anyone. So, outside of Doc personnel, apparently what they show is a total mystery and there's still no word on when they will finally be released.

[griteater]

3 of the last 4 runs of the GFS have shown a precip maximum of over 3/10's liquid this weekend in the Upper Savannah River valley area of SC.

 

Does anybody have an explanation why it keeps generating this qpf when the upper air maps don't support it? 

 

This definitely has some similarities to the Feb 16 system, mainly in the way that the heights crash just west of the apps.  The UKMet handled that system well from 3-4 days out, and you can see a similar evolution with this one...here's the loop - http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/UKHEMI_12z/ukloop.html

 

 

 

Here's HPC's surface map for Sat morning showing the low off the SC coast with inverted trough axis back through SC...and you see this feature on some of the model runs.  May not amount to anything, but if everything comes together, could be a repeat of the last event.

 

[dsaur]

 I've been told that the have not been distributed to anyone. So, outside of Doc personnel, apparently what they show is a total mystery and there's still no word on when they will finally be released.

Oh, lordy...Mystery Weather.  This could go either way

  As for a cold natured Goofy, I figured in the bias and was still looking at snow/sleet weather.  And I figured even better as we rarely get all the players just right, and marginal cold, with reinforcement  and nebulas precip is what we work with a lot.  So not having much of anything yet, just gives reality a chance to set up with some timing    Maybe it's me but I just don't remember many Sno Jam storms where it's real cold before hand.  38 with moisture moving in does it for us a lot, as long as it's night time..  Just need the timing..oh, and well, enough moisture, and cold coming in on cold, lol.  It's not the starting cold so much as the finishing cold, as long as the moisture turns frozen...and too cold just goes dry.  Tony

[Brick Tamland]

Sure is quiet here tonight. I thought there would be more chatter about the potential for wintry weather this weekend and next week. WRAL even mentioned they are watching this weekend closely. Maybe this is the calm before the storm, literally.

Meanwhile, tomorrow looks like a miserable day. So tired of all this rain.

[WeatherNC]

Ridge axis looks further west this run of the GFS compared to 12z, trough axis is much improved through the gulf coast, still not going to cut it but certainly a better look through 111hrs than 12z same period.

[jaxjagman]

Getting close for E/Coast people,baby step run its al,most there

[superjames1992]

Wow, areas of 0.10"+ across central NC this run.  It definitely is a lot better than 12z, though it's obviously not there yet.  Flizzards abound across the SE, though.

[WeatherNC]

Still pos at 117 just east of the MS but not by much, day and night difference in orientation between this run and 12z

[WidreMann]

Wow, areas of 0.10"+ across central NC this run.  It definitely is a lot better than 12z, though it's obviously not there yet.  Flizzards abound across the SE, though.

And overnight/in the morning, so we could even maybe possibly see accumulations?

[WeatherNC]

Looks to put down an inch or two for a good chunk of NC back into the upstate,

>1/4" 36 hr total in NC around Sothern Pines on the 135 map. Just need that axis to improve, it was still pos through FL, still another 5-6 days out. Hopefully the EC and GEM follow suit.

[rduwx]

Looks to put down an inch or two for a good chunk of NC back into the upstate, >1/4" 36 hr total in NC around Sothern Pines on the 135 map. Just need that axis to improve, it was still pos through FL, still another 5-6 days out. Hopefully the EC and GEM follow suit.

 

Baby steps...I have a feeling this week is going to be like the storm a couple of weeks ago in that we'll be hoping the trough can go negative in time.  If it does then moisture will increase.

[WidreMann]

Baby steps...I have a feeling this week is going to be like the storm a couple of weeks ago in that we'll be hoping the trough can go negative in time.  If it does then moisture will increase.

This one already looks a lot better than the one from last weekend. The energy has been consistently digging further south and west and stronger. At this time in the last cycle, the models were already losing the storm, not picking it back up.

[rduwx]

This one already looks a lot better than the one from last weekend. The energy has been consistently digging further south and west and stronger. At this time in the last cycle, the models were already losing the storm, not picking it back up.

 

I agree Widre.

[lilj4425]

This one already looks a lot better than the one from last weekend. The energy has been consistently digging further south and west and stronger. At this time in the last cycle, the models were already losing the storm, not picking it back up.

Who hacked into this guy's account?

[rduwx]

The 0z gfs also has the same storm as the 12z euro for 3/6.  The difference being the energy does not dive as far south on the 0z gfs.  The gfs also has a closed 500 low and I don't remember if the 12z euro had that.

[WeatherNC]

Baby steps...I have a feeling this week is going to be like the storm a couple of weeks ago in that we'll be hoping the trough can go negative in time.  If it does then moisture will increase.

We'll see, this one has a lot more going for it, 16th event was pretty much a dud till ~60-72 hours out, I think I even called the time of death on that one. Atleast with this we have some ensemble support at day 5 for a closer to the coast solution, last did not, and just a few days ago we were unsure if we would even see a low form out of this mess. Odds of a coastal appear to be slowly increasing, not much more you can ask for at this range.

[griteater]

This one already looks a lot better than the one from last weekend. The energy has been consistently digging further south and west and stronger. At this time in the last cycle, the models were already losing the storm, not picking it back up.

 

Was an impressive run of the GFS.  The trough just takes its time trekking east as it closes off.  Here's what I have for storm total...

 

[rduwx]

We'll see, this one has a lot more going for it, 16th event was pretty much a dud till ~60-72 hours out, I think I even called the time of death on that one. Atleast with this we have some ensemble support at day 5 for a closer to the coast solution, last did not, and just a few days ago we were unsure if we would even see a low form out of this mess. Odds of a coastal appear to be slowly increasing, not much more you can ask for at this range.

 

I agree this storm has a lot more going for it than the previous.  My concern right now is the trough axis being to far to the east, but tonight's gfs looked a lot better.  My other concern is how positive the tilt is at the bottom of the trough and can it get negative in time to do us any good.  Again, tonight's gfs looked a lot better.  But overall I like the setup, it's just can we get it to work out.

[superjames1992]

The UK Met is suppressed with the weekend potential.  Nevertheless, it has a surface low forming.

 

I guess it might be worth mentioning that it seems to be digging the followup storm further south than the GFS had at the same time.

 

[griteater]

The UK Met is suppressed with the weekend potential.  Nevertheless, it has a surface low forming.

 

I guess it might be worth mentioning that it seems to be digging the followup storm further south than the GFS had at the same time.

 

Superjames - I think the UKMet looks similar to the GFS at hr120...500mb looks similar, and you can see the inverted trough look there through South Carolina.  It's a bit wacky only seeing the frames at 24 hr intervals with the UKMet as you know, so the 12z run will be a bit more interesting

[superjames1992]

Superjames - I think the UKMet looks similar to the GFS at hr120...500mb looks similar, and you can see the inverted trough look there through South Carolina.  It's a bit wacky only seeing the frames at 24 hr intervals with the UKMet as you know, so the 12z run will be a bit more interesting

 

Hmm... Yeah, upon reflection, it does appear closed off at h5 and the 500 mb heights look pretty similar.  It would certainly be nice to see the precipitation maps.

 

EDIT: The GGEM looks close, too.

[GaWx]

Euro weeklies just out:

Week 2 (3/4-10) very, very cold. Week 3 (3/11-17) very cold. Week 4 (3/18-24) normal to barely below

Precip.: week 2 dry; week 3 wet S GA to SE coast and normal elsewhere; week 4 wet;

Strong west based -NAO and moderate -AO weeks 2-4; +PNA weeks 2-3; neutral PNA week 4

[griteater]

Euro weeklies just out:

Week 2 (3/4-10) very, very cold. Week 3 (3/11-17) very cold. Week 4 (3/18-24) normal to barely below

Precip.: week 2 dry; week 3 wet S GA to SE coast and normal elsewhere; week 4 wet;

Strong west based -NAO and moderate -AO weeks 2-4; +PNA weeks 2-3; neutral PNA week 4

 

Appreciate the Euro Weekly updates this winter GA

[dsaur]

Well, I got my .01 again this run and by still another route   This time the moisture bridges into the gulf briefly.  Certainly better that the dry slot Ga. while all around get some, ploy of the Gfs humor maps.  I sure like the coming cold, finally, if it is really cold when it arrives.  I like the upper lows that were on the maps for a recent frame or two, yesterday, I think.  A nice upper low moving down this weekend would stir the pot.  Get the gulf frisky maybe.  T