February Pattern and Storm Discussion

[Brick Tamland]

WRONG BRICK! We either had the +PNA or the -NAO, but we have not had all of the players on the field yet.

 

 

Nor have we had a west based -NAO like this one coming up. Pretty impressive blocking pattern.

 

I said things looked good. But it has been said before this winter about the players on the field looking better. That phrase has been used a lot this winter. The players might have been better than last winter, but still not good enough. Maybe now we will actually get the all stars that can give us a big win.

[tnweathernut]

I said things looked good. But it has been said before this winter about the players on the field looking better. That phrase has been used a lot this winter. The players might have been better than last winter, but still not good enough. Maybe now we will actually get the all stars that can give us a big win.

 

 

 

The blocking shown on the modeling is a lot better than "not good enough"...............in fact, it looks almost TOO good. Never thought we'd need it to relax a little to give us an opportunity, but it appears that's what we need.

[pcbjr]

If the blocking is good and the "other players are on the field", can someone explain why the cold is not nearly as significant or as far south as the models were all showing a mere 2 days ago?

 

This is a serious question, as I can't decipher the cause and effect.

 

Thanks in advance!

 

[packbacker]

If the blocking is good and the "other players are on the field", can someone explain why the cold is not nearly as significant or as far south as the models were all showing a mere 2 days ago?

 

This is a serious question, as I can't decipher the cause and effect.

 

Thanks in advance!

 

 

Only thing I can think of is the big low over the NE has slowly been trending a little more north and east so the trough isn't as deep.

[packbacker]

I don't think this 12z GFS run is going to do it, but it's the best I have seen from the GFS and it's way better than the 0z and 6z run.  This is through hr 120.

[Tacoma]

I know, what a mess, but odds are it isn't going to materialize, we are in the SE after all, but there is still a shot.  I think you can take the big phase bomb off the table but that something that shoots off the SC/GA coast heading NE maybe our best shot, but we might be to far west.

if you think your to far west think about the mtns of nc.  we need a low to come out of the gulf and track along the gulf coast to about the ga sc line then I think we would all be in business.

[franklin NCwx]

I don't think this 12z GFS run is going to do it, but it's the best I have seen from the GFS and it's way better than the 0z and 6z run. This is through hr 120.

sure iss. Its close and if we can continue to trend better maybe we can get something.

[SnowNiner]

I know, what a mess, but odds are it isn't going to materialize, we are in the SE after all, but there is still a shot.  I think you can take the big phase bomb off the table but that something that shoots off the SC/GA coast heading NE maybe our best shot, but we might be to far west.

 

+1

 

I think the coast is the best spot to be as there have been some models to show a low form in the Atlantic.  Still waiting for a gulf low to blip and yet to see it.  I think if we were going to have a big storm in early March we would have seen a couple nice runs by now. 

[calculus1]

If the blocking is good and the "other players are on the field", can someone explain why the cold is not nearly as significant or as far south as the models were all showing a mere 2 days ago?

 

This is a serious question, as I can't decipher the cause and effect.

 

Thanks in advance!

 

 

 

The trough of cold air still looks quite deep to me.  0 850s reach almost to Cancun at hour 138 on the 12Z GFS.

[DopplerWx]

The trough of cold air still looks quite deep to me.  0 850s reach almost to Cancun at hour 138 on the 12Z GFS.

colder to the west though, 0c line gets to orlando on the 12z where on the past few runs it had it down to miami.  gfs will probably start backing off the historic cold at least for florida as the event gets closer.

[pcbjr]

colder to the west though, 0c line gets to orlando on the 12z where on the past few runs it had it down to miami.  gfs will probably start backing off the historic cold at least for florida as the event gets closer.

I tend to agree.

[Tacoma]

+1

 

I think the coast is the best spot to be as there have been some models to show a low form in the Atlantic.  Still waiting for a gulf low to blip and yet to see it.  I think if we were going to have a big storm in early March we would have seen a couple nice runs by now. 

maybe the models are starting to latch on to something since its the gfs model best look and trending in the right direction.

[SnowNiner]

WxSouth No rest for Meteorologists from now until Mid March. The upcoming pattern will feature the worst part of Winter, hard to believe, but true...for the Southern and Mid Atlantic Region. The ECMWF model has been going wild with a MASSIVE retrograding flow in the northern latitudes. What this means, is that all the cold air up north will get shoved south. To boot, western ridging and an extreme negative anomaly will develop in the Southern States, with storms wind being forced further south than normal for March. To be honest, it's the best looking Winter Storm cold pattern in years for the Southern and MidAtlantic states. I'll have a full detailed writeup today at www.wxsouth.com

Check out the negative NAO (its in extreme territory--not seen since historic Winter of 2010/11).

 

I fixed it for him!   Maybe the models can't handle the pattern yet, but it seems like there aren't any storms to speak of.  I think the PNA ridge might just be too far east to good a nice gulf low.

[IWC]

Yes, things do look good, but we have heard before about how good the pattern looked and the players being on the field. But it all just goes for naught if we don't actually get a decent winter storm out of it.

Brick, Like you I'm hoping !  One run does not change the pattern just screws with it! So I'm hoping it a clitch. Like when the models lose a storm for a few days.

[WeatherNC]

The trough of cold air still looks quite deep to me. 0 850s reach almost to Cancun at hour 138 on the 12Z GFS.

If anything, this run of the GFS looks awfully familier to where the Euro was Saturday, 2/23. Deep positive trough axis with energy all the wa back trough the certral Gulf. This could be a case with the GFS playing ketchup. Especially when looking at where the deterministic EC and eps control are with respect to the h5 evolution for there past couple runs. I for one do not want a blitzing SN storm shown 7 days out, much better to be trending towards development off the SE coast at this range, let the fiber details work themselves out in the 3-5 range, then I would expect to start seeing some nice blips.

[Cold Rain]

12Z GFS and Canadian eh are a no go on the weekend storm. Super deep trough that just refuses to cut off strongly or go negative.

[WeatherNC]

12Z GFS and Canadian eh are a no go on the weekend storm. Super deep trough that just refuses to cut off strongly or go negative.

How far out do you have the Canadian? At 144 it looks much better than the GFS, mean trough axis from Mobile Bay down through the central Gulf while still pos, not by a lot, with double barrel h5 cutoffs, one over northern MS, the other over WV/VA.

[Cold Rain]

How far out do you have the Canadian? At 144 it looks much better than the GFS, mean trough axis from Mobile Bay down through the central Gulf while still pos, not by a lot, with double barrel h5 cutoffs, one over northern MS, the other over WV/VA.

I look at it on ewall out to 180. Totally a weird look and puhlenty of room and time to get something going. I should have been more clear with my other post....I was just model-hugging and saying they still have nothing at the surface.

It would be more fun if one model would show something. We don't have to go all in 7 days out (I'm with you on that one). But somebody needs to show something soon. Is that so much to ask??

[Cold Rain]

And look at that energy in SE Canada around 144 on the Canadian. It just stone cold stunners the western ridge to oblivion.

[nrgjeff]

Midweek shortwave dives behind the Plains blizzard. Latest data has it more robust in the Heartland. All KC needs is more snow Wednesday, lol! That digs into the Mid South. Expect snow showers in the Apps and maybe Cumberland Plateau in Tenn.

 

Weekend: It’s possible that shortwave digging deeper into the Southeast over-achieves, esp in the mountains. Deep South probably won’t get the surprise dump. Deep South generally over-achieves with moist bowling balls causing TROWALs; this is an open wave. One closed 500 contour (Euro) is still pretty open plus no moist TROWAL. Still LOL overall at GFS; go with the Euro.

 

After the weekend, the following holds:

The smartest thing to do is not ride each model run...they havent been correct even at times three days out along a week out

Next week the cold pattern really settles in. There are a couple weak waves, which could turn stronger, but refer to above. What’s important is that all the indices mentioned in previous posts become robustly cold for the Southeast. Now the new pattern may start out somewhat dry/cold, esp if those weak waves fail, but let your heart not be troubled. The following week could be more stormy. When the subtropical jet does try to lift back north, it will bring moisture with it. The blocking is forecast to continue, so I’d think plenty of cold air remains thanks to northern branch.

 

Last week I wanted to add to the MJO discussion, but got sidetracked at work. As some noted per historical snow, MJO is better for temps than winter precip. Sometimes it is not an applicable tool even for temps. MJO seems to have died in “warm” phases now. Like 2010-11 a weak MJO is meaningless when blocks are established. Also note that warm air advection, whether short-term synoptic or mid-term continental, can go into sensible temperatures or lift/precip. Possibly those good storms during “warm” MJO phases were the latter, not creating warmth, as the weak MJO pulse made it into the Western Hemisphere and promoted lift and cold precip. If I missed a great post between page 52-70 my apologies.

[Steven_1974]

I was curious, what sort of setups did the southeast see during the 60s that had the three Wednesday snows in March in NC I remember my dad used to tell me about?

[pcbjr]

Tornado watch down here until 8:00 PM

[dsaur]

If anything, this run of the GFS looks awfully familier to where the Euro was Saturday, 2/23. Deep positive trough axis with energy all the wa back trough the certral Gulf. This could be a case with the GFS playing ketchup. Especially when looking at where the deterministic EC and eps control are with respect to the h5 evolution for there past couple runs. I for one do not want a blitzing SN storm shown 7 days out, much better to be trending towards development off the SE coast at this range, let the fiber details work themselves out in the 3-5 range, then I would expect to start seeing some nice blips.

I'm with you!  I've held onto .01 in rain now since last night, and that's way more precip that I was getting before   Baby steps is fine with me until late mid week. As long as the models are showing enveloping cold, and not cold sliding across the top of the south, then I think we have all kinds of chances ahead.  Like all southern winters it takes cold, rain and timing.  Never easy down here, but doable each winter, with timing...otherwise, it's just cold one day and wet another and then it's summer, lol. T

[GaWx]

12Z Doc a good bit warmer than earlier runs in the 6-10 day period. Much more limited snow chances with that.

[burgertime]

12z Euro at the end of the run drops 4-8 in NC.  It has an inch of QPF from Charlotte west. 

[Cheeznado]

12z Euro at the end of the run drops 4-8 in NC.  It has an inch of QPF from Charlotte west. 

Even a few inches in GA. We will see. There continues to be some sort of signal in the models about one "last gasp" snow event somewhere in the SE at the tail end of the -NAO, I am really now just waiting for severe season to start but if we get something wintry in early Mar I won't complain. Not really expecting it but at least there is a shot it looks like.

[GaWx]

12z Euro at the end of the run drops 4-8 in NC. 

 

 Yep, a real surprise to me based on the warmer earlier look. Because the 12Z Doc is warmer earlier, the AL/MS snow is much reduced. GA is about a wash. Basically the big snow is further NE and is a huge hit for NC, E TN, and N SC! The clown has 4-8" for a large area there and two small areas of 8-10" max with ~10" at Charlotte (bullseye)! For NC, this is probably the second or third heaviest snow on a Euro run this season!

[Brick Tamland]

Only 10 more days to go!

#BrickTamland

 

You said it! Euro looks great for NC. Problem is it's 10 days out.

[rduwx]

I mentioned yesterday that the 3/6 - 3/7 time frame needed to be looked at more than the 3/3. Imo this time looks more promising. Of course only 10 days away.

[GaWx]

 Yep, a real surprise to me based on the warmer earlier look. Because the 12Z Doc is warmer earlier, the AL/MS snow is much reduced. GA is about a wash. Basically the big snow is further NE and is a huge hit for NC, E TN, and N SC! The clown has 4-8" for a large area there and two small areas of 8-10" max with ~10" at Charlotte (bullseye)! For NC, this is probably the second or third heaviest snow on a Euro run this season!

 

 The 12Z Euro run is another good lesson in climo for the northern Gulf coast states. On this run, it isn't a Miller A..it is further north and consequently is too warm for sig. snow in these areas other than a decent amount (1-2") mainly in N GA on the backside as an upper low passes. For N GA/N AL/N MS to get a widespread major snow out of this, it really needs to go back to its further south track. Climo for NC is different and more variable since they're further north. They can benefit from many situations as they're often in

the driver's seat being colder. However, a classic Miller A snow would also usually give them a major snow.