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February Pattern and Storm Discussion

POWERSTROKE

By POWERSTROKE,
in Southeastern States

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ColdRainsStr8cashhomey

ColdRainsStr8cashhomey

Posted
Posted

tonight's 0z GFS was a real good step in the right direction for a climo-favorable coastal as the ridge out west was amped enough to allow a strong piece of energy to dive into the base of our trof and close off somewhere in the deep south

 

as Griteater and Marion showed on maps/suggested in previous posts, the 500mb flow looks real good and frankly, we are real close to a big ticket system with how much cold air is in play here

 

also, good info from Larry/(GaWx) earlier today on how weak systems normally produce snow more times than those systems which wrap up/intensify and the warm intrusion from the intensification screws many... this is a situation where the surface system remains fairly weak, but strong enough in the upper levels with solid upward motion projected to the northwest of the surface system where that energy phases

 

I'm starting to get a little fired up thinking this may be our 1st system with some teeth instead of the piddly, temporary ones we've had all winter long

 

bottom line is we're going to need that ridge out west to stay where it is and not nose itself any further east (if we get an unforeseen kicker coming in on the west coast to kick down our ridge, I may go off with anger)... OR we'll need the ridge to get a bit steeper so that our energy diving in from the plains can dig and phase... either one will work in our favor

 

12z Euro looked good today too... we just need that ridge out west to cooperate and amplify enough for some digging and a quick tilt to our south once the energy rounds the base of the trof... it's always so tough to get the timing right, but I like where we are at this stage, don't you all?

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

I think mid week we get the storm back...in fact I prefer it be late.  Already I've gone from super cold and dry to hardly cold at all, and .01, in rain :)  Goofy, always the funny guy, shows cold into Fla.on the maps,  but spits out much higher temps on Meteostar than the most recent runs.  My thinking is Tues, Wed. or Thurs.  I just don't think this will jell until late, but something gets better each run moisture wise, lol, as other stuff gets worse. ..and I've got some rain now :)  And I just don't want to see a monster storm..... just a half inch,  or 3/4's will do.  Break the ice first.... then get the monster :)      The Mole Storm cometh, lol.              I believe :)   Get this next system past, and let the models sniff out the cold real good from up close........

  And I'm so glad the 0 line has now discovered the deep south, and the gulf.  Finally, after all this time... a long range with some bite!!  And if all else disappoints, some real winter cold will up the feel good factor going into the long torpor.  I'm seeing dual droughts come apart, if the cold comes,  and I'm really ready.  T

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Now that I think of it, Larry...I think you'd better load up on ice cream.  You might be starting a storm thread coming up in a few days, and you won't be able to leave your warren to go to the store.  I imagine you in some modern Dickensian rooms piled high with tomes, and Cray super computers, where you ply your abacus, and have your statistic based visions, lol.   We need you very Zen like, if you get the call!!  Tony

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ColdRainsStr8cashhomey

ColdRainsStr8cashhomey

Posted
Posted

swing and a miss on the 0z Euro... on to the next one

 

edit:  I spoke too soon as I thought the western ridge was nosing in like a little *astard... new 0z is close and MUCH better compared to last night's 0z run (comparison below) with bundled energy at the base of the trof but still a bit OTS (which is fine at this point)

 

I'm hearing rumblings that ole DT will run a special dropsonde at 12z for the experimental Virginia-based UKmet which is run from his momma's basement... stand by for barking and widespread panic :loon:

post-8747-0-38820200-1361775368_thumb.jp

post-8747-0-30926200-1361776019_thumb.jp

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ColdRainsStr8cashhomey

ColdRainsStr8cashhomey

Posted
Posted

00z Euro seems to have a weak Gulf low at hr 216 tracking over Mobile, AL.  If someone with paid access could elaborate, that would be great. :)

 

EDIT: Was this the system you were referring to ColdRainStr8cashhomey?

 

James, what I was referring to and posting is at hour hr168 with a decent look at 500mb and a surface low forming off the coast a few hundred miles, but a few others within this thread have mentioned something showing up a few days later so that could be what you see

 

I'm not sure there's a valid reason to focus on the 5th/6th yet... especially when the 2nd and 3rd is in play and with the knowledge of how terribly forecast models perform outside of 6-7 days

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Now that I think of it, Larry...I think you'd better load up on ice cream.  You might be starting a storm thread coming up in a few days, and you won't be able to leave your warren to go to the store.  I imagine you in some modern Dickensian rooms piled high with tomes, and Cray super computers, where you ply your abacus, and have your statistic based visions, lol.   We need you very Zen like, if you get the call!!  Tony

 

Tony, lol

 

Folks,

The 0Z 2/25 Doc has essentially the same system for 3/5 that the 12Z Doc had. However, it is a bit drier and snowfall max is lower (2-3" instead of 4-7" due to a max QPF of ~0.30" instead of 0.70" in the area cold enough for snow...still a decent system though not in the major category like the 12Z 2/24 run's storm). The snow is a bit further north and covers far N MS/AL/GA, much of TN, and the far western Carolinas. The clown's snowfall max. is centered just north of the TN border. The 500 mb flow is more westerly than WSW..so it is drier. But it is pretty close to a carbon copy. Now, that's a rarity! Anyone want to wager on three Doc runs in a row?

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

James, what I was referring to and posting is at hour hr168 with a decent look at 500mb and a surface low forming off the coast a few hundred miles, but a few others within this thread have mentioned something showing up a few days later so that could be what you see

 

Okay, thanks. :)

 

12z Euro looked good today too... we just need that ridge out west to cooperate and amplify enough for some digging and a quick tilt to our south once the energy rounds the base of the trof... it's always so tough to get the timing right, but I like where we are at this stage, don't you all?

If you are optimistic, then I think we all have reason to be! :)

 

Tony, lol

 

Folks,

The 0Z 2/25 Doc has essentially the same system for 3/5 that the 12Z Doc had. However, it is a bit drier and snowfall max is lower (2-3" instead of 4-7"...still a decent system). The snow is a bit further north and covers far N MS/AL/GA, much of TN, and the far western Carolinas. The clown's snowfall max. is centered along the TN border. The 500 mb flow is more westerly than WSW..so it is drier. But it is pretty close to a carbon copy. Now, that's a rarity! Anyone want to wager on three Doc runs in a row?

 

Thanks for the info, Larry.  It's a long way out, but consistency is nice and all the major modeling shows something around this time period.  We shall see.

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ColdRainsStr8cashhomey

ColdRainsStr8cashhomey

Posted
Posted

and there it is... new kicker system that hasn't even shown up on forecast data now shows face along the west coast and beats down/noses our western ridge too far east on the 6z GFS making significant digging/phasing opportunity on the 2nd and 3rd an after-thought

 

looks like to me that the Pacific may ruin another chance for a miller-A and winter storm for the south... this same tune with short wavelengths and no spacing is getting very old, but it's the hand we are dealt

 

knowing how this system just appeared out of the blue, any chance on the 5th and 6th really shouldn't concern anyone and I am still trying to figure out why some are focusing on that time frame

 

Pacific will dominate the upstream flow when given the chance

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted

and there it is... new kicker system that hasn't even shown up on forecast data now shows face along the west coast and beats down/noses our western ridge too far east on the 6z GFS making significant digging/phasing opportunity on the 2nd and 3rd an after-thought

 

looks like to me that the Pacific may ruin another chance for a miller-A and winter storm for the south... this same tune with short wavelengths and no spacing is getting very old, but it's the hand we are dealt

 

knowing how this system just appeared out of the blue, any chance on the 5th and 6th really shouldn't concern anyone and I am still trying to figure out why some are focusing on that time frame

 

Pacific will dominate the upstream flow when given the chance

And so the story of our winter.....arghhhhh

We are sure thankful for upslope snow....that is our salvation. The largest snow in the High Country this winter still gets awarded to the October backside of Hurricane Sandy.

 

On a bright note, I noticed Raysweather has 5 days of upslope snow indicated in this forecast starting Wednesday through Sunday this week.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

HPC Extended Discussion snippet...

UPSTREAM...A DYMANIC SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL

DROP SEWD THROUGH THE WRN US WED/THU. DIGGING ENERGY WILL FEED

MORE SHARPLY INTO THE S-CENTRAL US BY FRI TO THE LEE OF A RAPIDLY

AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL E-CENTRAL PACIFIC TROUGH AND WRN US

RIDGE COUPLET DEVELOPING UPSTREAM. THIS LEADS TO QUITE AN

AMPLIFIED WRN US RIDGE AND COLD ERN US TROUGH (POSITIVE PNA

PATTERN) BY SAT JUST AS HEIGHT RISES FEED WESTWARD FROM GREENLAND

INTO ERN CANADA AT HIGHER LATITUDES. THIS MAY LEAD TO ERN US

COASTAL LOW POTENTIAL SAT-MON AND HPC MANUAL PROGS SHOW MODERATE

DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE.

MEANWHILE WELL UPSTREAM...AMPLIFIED ERN PACIFIC MID-UPPER LEVEL

TROUGH ENERGY REACHING THE NWRN US NEXT WEEKEND WILL WORK INTO THE

LEAD WRN US MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND FAVOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR

ORGANIZED PCPN. GUIDANCE OFTEN BREAKS DOWN AMPLIFIED BLOCKY

RIDGES TOO RAPIDLY WITH APPROACHING TROUGHS...BUT HPC MANUAL PROGS

AT LEAST TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE SPECIFIC SYSTEM INVOLVED OFFERS

QUITE A BIT OF MUSCLE NOW OFF JAPAN.

SCHICHTEL

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

Best hope is some snow showers next weekend atm!

 

RAH

 

 

 WHILE ENERGY CONTINUES TO DROP INTO THE WEST SIDE OF
THE MEAN TROUGH AND DIG IT PROGRESSIVELY DEEPER. THE COOLING
ALOFT... DPVA... AND STEADY HEIGHT FALLS WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY
CHILLY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES COOLING EACH
DAY... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MOISTENING THROUGH THE
SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED SUB-FREEZING LAYER... SUPPORTIVE ON THE ECMWF
OF A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. SUCH
DETAILS ARE TOUGH TO RESOLVE WITH ANY CONFIDENCE AT THIS RANGE...
BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ON
THIS POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND MID-UPPER 40S SUNDAY. -GIH
 

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Best hope is some snow showers next weekend atm!

 

RAH

 

 

 WHILE ENERGY CONTINUES TO DROP INTO THE WEST SIDE OF

THE MEAN TROUGH AND DIG IT PROGRESSIVELY DEEPER. THE COOLING

ALOFT... DPVA... AND STEADY HEIGHT FALLS WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY

CHILLY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES COOLING EACH

DAY... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MOISTENING THROUGH THE

SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED SUB-FREEZING LAYER... SUPPORTIVE ON THE ECMWF

OF A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. SUCH

DETAILS ARE TOUGH TO RESOLVE WITH ANY CONFIDENCE AT THIS RANGE...

BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ON

THIS POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO

LOWER 50S FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND MID-UPPER 40S SUNDAY. -GIH

 

The way that sounds, RAH may think it could be more than snow showers.

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Tacoma

Tacoma

Posted
Posted

I would love to see a big one, but I don't see it happening yet. Maybe the models just aren't handling it right, but it seems the threat always gets pushed out to 10 days away, and when we have cold it's dry, and when we have a lot of precip like we did this past Saturday, it's too warm for anything but rain.

I'm trying to stay optimistic but another blow is when I read Andy's blog about the new kicker system on the west coast that moved the ridge a little further east which messed up our chances of a southeastern snowstorm,  can you believe it, just as we seemed to be getting close to something around the 3/3 range since the cold is suppose to be here,,,,,,  I HOPE THE COLD IS STILL COMING SO WE HAVE A CHANCE.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

I'm trying to stay optimistic but another blow is when I read Andy's blog about the new kicker system on the west coast that moved the ridge a little further east which messed up our chances of a southeastern snowstorm,  can you believe it, just as we seemed to be getting close to something around the 3/3 range since the cold is suppose to be here,,,,,,  I HOPE THE COLD IS STILL COMING SO WE HAVE A CHANCE.

 

Yes, that feature is a big problem. Maybe we will get lucky, though, and this pattern can overcome that. RAH certainly sounds intrigued.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

I've never seen the 06z model suite cause so much panic!  :lmao:

 

I know, what a mess, but odds are it isn't going to materialize, we are in the SE after all, but there is still a shot.  I think you can take the big phase bomb off the table but that something that shoots off the SC/GA coast heading NE maybe our best shot, but we might be to far west.

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DCMetroWinston

DCMetroWinston

Posted
Posted

WxSouth No rest for Meteorologists from now until Mid March. The upcoming pattern will feature the worst part of Winter, hard to believe, but true...for the Southern and Mid Atlantic Region. The ECMWF model has been going wild with a MASSIVE retrograding flow in the northern latitudes. What this means, is that all the cold air up north will get shoved south. To boot, western ridging and an extreme negative anomaly will develop in the Southern States, with storms being forced further south than normal for March. To be honest, it's the best looking Winter Storm pattern in years for the Southern and MidAtlantic states. I'll have a full detailed writeup today at www.wxsouth.com

Check out the negative NAO (its in extreme territory--not seen since historic Winter of 2010/11).

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

WxSouth No rest for Meteorologists from now until Mid March. The upcoming pattern will feature the worst part of Winter, hard to believe, but true...for the Southern and Mid Atlantic Region. The ECMWF model has been going wild with a MASSIVE retrograding flow in the northern latitudes. What this means, is that all the cold air up north will get shoved south. To boot, western ridging and an extreme negative anomaly will develop in the Southern States, with storms being forced further south than normal for March. To be honest, it's the best looking Winter Storm pattern in years for the Southern and MidAtlantic states. I'll have a full detailed writeup today at www.wxsouth.com

Check out the negative NAO (its in extreme territory--not seen since historic Winter of 2010/11).

 

 

There is plenty of opportunity. We have the strongest block of all winter & close to the best PNA...Problem is the southern stream and wave lengths. A lot of the big storms sneak up on us so I am not giving up, but it is frustrating. 

 

 

Yes, things do look good, but we have heard before about how good the pattern looked and the players being on the field. But it all just goes for naught if we don't actually get a decent winter storm out of it.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Yes, things do look good, but we have heard before about how good the pattern looked and the players being on the field. But it all just goes for naught if we don't actually get a decent winter storm out of it.

WRONG BRICK! We either had the +PNA or the -NAO, but we have not had all of the players on the field yet.

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