Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 eps is pretty close to if not a Miller A, system comes out of the eastern gulf through Central FL, comma head taking shape just a little too far offshore the SE this run. Edit: and by far I mean 100-150 miles to get in to the heavier >0.25" axis Maybe grasping at straws, but that's fairly close for so many days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 eps is pretty close to if not a Miller A, system comes out of the eastern gulf through Central FL, comma head taking shape just a little too far offshore the SE this run. Edit: and by far I mean 100-150 miles to get in to the heavier >0.25" axis and it does not have the day 9/10 system the op had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Looks like my mosquito killing freeze is/was a fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 HPC going with another inverted trough look at Day 7 with low there in SC and bulge in isobars extending from Atlanta to off Wilmington. 2nd image is their corresponding 500mb forecast at Day 7...looks more in line with the Euro compared to GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Looks like my mosquito killing freeze is/was a fantasy. 700's are really juicy in the SE,looking at your surface temps around 35,dp's 30-35,it's so close for you,this would be next Sun Morn Edit:this is the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 700's are really juicy in the SE,looking at your surface temps around 35,dp's 30-35,it's so close for you,this would be next Sun Morn Edit:this is the EPS 35 doesn't do 'skeeters (and they are bad and out already). 25 for 2 or 3 nights - beats malathion .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 35 doesn't do 'skeeters (and they are bad and out already). 25 for 2 or 3 nights - beats malathion .... yeah but how models handle the cold pool should be noted in the SE,it's usually colder than what is progged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Hey Lookout, we'll be using youtube from now on for our weekly briefing and big events, now that permission has been given to use it and accounts set up. Before youtube, we used to post mp4 videos on our web page and Facebook for the big events, however our thresholds for what constitutes a "big" event is subjective and probably higher than other WFOs (>2" snow, high-end Slight or higher severe risk, moderate or record flooding). That might explain why many people haven't seen them. Before we recorded briefings, we did them live for state and county government and other safety agencies and only the slides were put online for a short time. If you or anyone have suggestions, let us know. Feedback so far has been good. Steve You should drop by more often! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 HPC going with another inverted trough look at Day 7 with low there in SC and bulge in isobars extending from Atlanta to off Wilmington. 2nd image is their corresponding 500mb forecast at Day 7...looks more in line with the Euro compared to GFS would this not be a snowstorm for wnc, upstate and e tenn. maybe va? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 would this not be a snowstorm for wnc, upstate and e tenn. maybe va? 114 it goes through W/TN 120 m/tn 126 S.TN..N/AL 132 SE,TN/nga 138 n/GA..N/SC 144-150 Still in N/SC..C/NC..E/NC Edit This is by the EPS the GFS brings a line a ULL'S through and it would be sn in the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 yeah but how models handle the cold pool should be noted in the SE,it's usually colder than what is progged Since when? GFS has had a cold bias all yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The 0z Euro looked great at H5 up until 156hrs, it really looked like these two pieces were going to hook and turn the trough quick, however, at 168 it's as if the tail from the energy diving down amplifies over Mexico and severely holds the axis back left. At 204 it has a full latitude trough extending from the Bay of Campeche all the way to extreme SE Canada. It's interesting to see a piece of energy getting injected into the southern stream flow - you can see it here at Day 4 in Arizona / New Mexico. Then you have the northern stream piece in eastern Montana that later phases into the trough in the southeast...but the southern stream piece adds more juice and potential with this setup. Ironically, we have basin-wide -NAO blocking in the north Atlantic that is actually a bit too strong / too overwhelming for our liking. You can see how the flow is blocked up with one closed low east of Newfoundland, and our northeast vortex there just east of Boston. As others have mentioned, you'd like to see that vortex just east of Boston a bit northeast of it's progged position on the map below, say between Nova Scotia and Newfoundland...that would relax the flow a bit in the southeast and allow the pieces of energy out west to turn the corner and ignite a storm close to the southeast coast. Bottom line, 2 things to look for IMO are: 1) a relaxing of the -NAO block allowing the northeast vortex to move a bit to the northeast, and 2) continue to see a nice southern stream wave & vort max get injected into the flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 THE HPC maps do support what the GFS was showing for KCAE in the idea of thundersnow. I'm not sold on it being so far North though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Since when? GFS has had a cold bias all yr. Last I checked all the models are in some agreement to a trough with cold air. Esepecially their ensembles. (GGEM, EURO, GFS) Some colder than others of course but mainly having 0c 850s well into FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Another slight shift for the S for Tues storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 not that a shift to the S will matter,it just brings up more WAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 GFS cant handle the cold,it has no clue,every run is drastic change almost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 GFS cant handle the cold,it has no clue,every run is drastic change almost Agreed, it's crazy the run to run differences. Looks better though, almost a true 50/50. Won't pop a storm, but baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Well to answer the subtitle of this thread, it appears February will be a dud for most. Someone different please create the next discussion thread. I hear March is going to come in stinging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 GFS from 120-144 picked up on the idea of trying to close off energy along the Mississippi River (AR, LA, MS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 THE HPC maps do support what the GFS was showing for KCAE in the idea of thundersnow. I'm not sold on it being so far North though. Honestly,there is nothing to support thundersnow,to light of a event right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 GFS from 120-144 picked up on the idea of trying to close off energy along the Mississippi River (AR, LA, MS). This has been there for days,its flurries or lt s/showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I've been looking for a storm to pop on the models for sometime next weekend (3/1-3/3) but it's starting to look to me that the 3/5-3/6 time frame might be better. Something to watch in future model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 This has been there for days,its flurries or lt s/showers That strong vort briefly closing off in Northern MS at 138 hasn't been there for days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I've been looking for a storm to pop on the models for sometime next weekend (3/1-3/3) but it's starting to look to me that the 3/5-3/6 time frame might be better. Something to watch in future model runs. Back to 10 days out. I think I see a pattern here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Honestly,there is nothing to support thundersnow,to light of a event right now Same was said during the last system and imby, we got slammed w/ thunder and almost hail/graupal like shards dropping from the sky along with sleet and snow as it passed through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Back to 10 days out. I think I see a pattern here. The storm is still there, but just OTS as usual. Hurricane season: Fish Storm Winter season: Fish Storm Summer season: Never developes/in the ocean. Spring: yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Back to 10 days out. I think I see a pattern here. I think you are correct. It's always 10 days out! This Wednesday things will start looking better for 3/9....LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 That strong vort briefly closing off in Northern MS at 138 hasn't been there for days... It has been there,it breaks off from the vort in the Dakotas,a few days ago when it rolled over it broke off,just a different look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I think you are correct. It's always 10 days out! This Wednesday things will start looking better for 3/9....LOL. Finally, an analog you can trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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