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February Pattern and Storm Discussion


POWERSTROKE

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eps is pretty close to if not a Miller A, system comes out of the eastern gulf through Central FL, comma head taking shape just a little too far offshore the SE this run.

 

Edit: and by far I mean 100-150 miles to get in to the heavier >0.25" axis

Maybe grasping at straws, but that's fairly close for so many days out.

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eps is pretty close to if not a Miller A, system comes out of the eastern gulf through Central FL, comma head taking shape just a little too far offshore the SE this run.

Edit: and by far I mean 100-150 miles to get in to the heavier >0.25" axis

and it does not have the day 9/10 system the op had
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Hey Lookout, we'll be using youtube from now on for our weekly briefing and big events, now that permission has been given to use it and accounts set up.  Before youtube, we used to post mp4 videos on our web page and Facebook for the big events, however our thresholds for what constitutes a "big" event is subjective and probably higher than other WFOs (>2" snow, high-end Slight or higher severe risk, moderate or record flooding).  That might explain why many people haven't seen them.  Before we recorded briefings, we did them live for state and county government and other safety agencies and only the slides were put online for a short time. 

 

If you or anyone have suggestions, let us know.  Feedback so far has been good.

 

Steve

You should drop by more often! :-)

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HPC going with another inverted trough look at Day 7 with low there in SC and bulge in isobars extending from Atlanta to off Wilmington.  2nd image is their corresponding 500mb forecast at Day 7...looks more in line with the Euro compared to GFS

 

 

9nhwbgconus.gif
 
d7500wbg.gif

would this not be a snowstorm for wnc, upstate and e tenn. maybe va?

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The 0z Euro looked great at H5 up until 156hrs, it really looked like these two pieces were going to hook and turn the trough quick, however, at 168 it's as if the tail from the energy diving down amplifies over Mexico and severely holds the axis back left. At 204 it has a full latitude trough extending from the Bay of Campeche all the way to extreme SE Canada.

 

It's interesting to see a piece of energy getting injected into the southern stream flow - you can see it here at Day 4 in Arizona / New Mexico.  Then you have the northern stream piece in eastern Montana that later phases into the trough in the southeast...but the southern stream piece adds more juice and potential with this setup.

 

eurovortday4.gif
 
 
Ironically, we have basin-wide -NAO blocking in the north Atlantic that is actually a bit too strong / too overwhelming for our liking.  You can see how the flow is blocked up with one closed low east of Newfoundland, and our northeast vortex there just east of Boston.  As others have mentioned, you'd like to see that vortex just east of Boston a bit northeast of it's progged position on the map below, say between Nova Scotia and Newfoundland...that would relax the flow a bit in the southeast and allow the pieces of energy out west to turn the corner and ignite a storm close to the southeast coast.
 
naoday4.gif
 
 
Bottom line, 2 things to look for IMO are: 1) a relaxing of the -NAO block allowing the northeast vortex to move a bit to the northeast, and 2) continue to see a nice southern stream wave & vort max get injected into the flow
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