February Pattern and Storm Discussion

[franklin NCwx]

Larry,

It will be interesting to see if you are correct with the assertion that the cold holds off until the end of the month.  I have noticed the cold being delayed on the GFS a bit. (others have said it has been doing this a lot)  I still feel good about cold, maybe not from the 10th as I had initially thought, but toward the 15th.  Any additional delays on the modeling would mean you have a pretty good shot at verifying, but let's just let it play out.

As for the bolded part, maybe we could get JBurns to tell us about that winter??    j/k

The GFS is almost always too fast with pattern changes. It does look like going off the ensembles that the epo is going -. From reading in the New England forum it sounds like the euro ensembles have moved towards the GEFS in building the ridge over Alaska. The GGEM has supported the GEFS in this area but the last two runs have built the ridge a little farther west dumping most of the cold into the plains and west. The Euro (it sounds like) is more like the GGEm. Time will tell which one is right or if there is more a blend of the Three.

[dsaur]

Larry,

It will be interesting to see if you are correct with the assertion that the cold holds off until the end of the month.  I have noticed the cold being delayed on the GFS a bit. (others have said it has been doing this a lot)  I still feel good about cold, maybe not from the 10th as I had initially thought, but toward the 15th.  Any additional delays on the modeling would mean you have a pretty good shot at verifying, but let's just let it play out.

As for the bolded part, maybe we could get JBurns to tell us about that winter??    j/k

ETS, I think you need to do one of your patented Fantasy Range Fantasy Disco's.  It'd be like Orson Welles doing War of the Worlds.  It'd blow weenie minds everywhere as most won't remember your fun Disco's from Eastern.  Wouldn't work on Burnsy though, his mind was blown not long after the Titanic sank, lol. 

  With Tenn getting shots of frozen precip, this hasn't been such a bad year for ya'll, just maybe not in the depth department, but at least you've seen  more than last year.  Of course, saying you've gotten more than the worst year ever, isn't saying much, but it's a step in the right direction, lol.  T

[mackerel_sky]

4 feet of snow around here is not an impossibility.all you need is low 20s or teens with 20:1 ratios and 2-2.5 inches of qpf.probably once in a 1000 years situation,but i would love to see it!

[burgertime]

Well if you buy the 12z LR it's gotta make you happy. Still has a big storm but this time around the 19th and it looks great at the end of it's run. Usual grain of salt and all that jazz. 

[franklin NCwx]

The gfs is still all about the western ridge! This could all be leading up to the colder than average March that Larry has been talking about.

[jburns]

KGSP Morning AFD on next weekend:

TYPICAL CAD HIGH BRINGS HIGHS ON THURSDAY A CATEGORY COOLER THAN

NORMAL...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY WITH PASSING LOW PRESSURE...THEN

AT OR BELOW NORMAL AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

 

You couldn't write a better general description of a SE winter if you tried.

[franklin NCwx]

Here are the 0z GFS ensembles from last night. First day 10, then day 15.

[jburns]

Larry,

It will be interesting to see if you are correct with the assertion that the cold holds off until the end of the month.  I have noticed the cold being delayed on the GFS a bit. (others have said it has been doing this a lot)  I still feel good about cold, maybe not from the 10th as I had initially thought, but toward the 15th.  Any additional delays on the modeling would mean you have a pretty good shot at verifying, but let's just let it play out.

As for the bolded part, maybe we could get JBurns to tell us about that winter??    j/k

 

Boy, you shure got a purty mouth.  j/k  or am I?

[FallsLake]

Have you guys noticed the 12 GFS at 96 hours? Looks like a possible CAD setup. I checked the Twister site for Dew point temps and they stay below freezing for at least the northern half of NC through out the event.

 

** but I do know there is a difference in dew point and wet bulb

[franklin NCwx]

Current mjo forecast and soi reading.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average for last 30 days -4.8 Average for last 90 days -3.3 Daily contribution to SOI calculation -33.0

 

 

 

[Poimen]

I've enjoyed the musings of the LR the pasts few days on here but I can't help but note that the Valentine's Day storm has turned into the Valentine's Day massacre of SE snow lovers now that we are within the 10 day window.   I mean that very lightheartedly, by the way.

 

But seriously, like others have mentioned, perhaps that will help set the stage for something better in the 5-10 days after the 14th (assuming it doesn't happen for us). Time will tell.

[FallsLake]

I've enjoyed the musings of the LR the pasts few days on here but I can't help but note that the Valentine's Day storm has turned into the Valentine's Day massacre of SE snow lovers now that we are within the 10 day window.   I mean that very lightheartedly, by the way.

 

But seriously, like others have mentioned, perhaps that will help set the stage for something better in the 5-10 days after the 14th (assuming it doesn't happen for us). Time will tell.

But looking at the 12z GFS is does show the players on the stage (cold air to the west and a storm system). The 12z GFS has this storm pushing north west of the Apps but how many times have we seen the storms trend south and east this year. I think this is still a possibility and if we use the GFS as a tool to study the overall pattern we are still in play for a possible winter storm (somewhere is the SE).

[franklin NCwx]

I've enjoyed the musings of the LR the pasts few days on here but I can't help but note that the Valentine's Day storm has turned into the Valentine's Day massacre of SE snow lovers now that we are within the 10 day window.   I mean that very lightheartedly, by the way.

 

But seriously, like others have mentioned, perhaps that will help set the stage for something better in the 5-10 days after the 14th (assuming it doesn't happen for us). Time will tell.

This is what I pointed out the other day. Nice setup in the Pacific but no blocking. So everything could cut during this period. Of course this is if the models are correct on building the western ridge.

[Poimen]

But looking at the 12z GFS is does show the players on the stage (cold air to the west and a storm system). The 12z GFS has this storm pushing north west of the Apps but how many times have we seen the storms trend south and east this year. I think this is still a possibility and if we use the GFS as a tool to study the overall pattern we are still in play for a possible winter storm (somewhere is the SE).

perhaps, but I do believe the period after is going to be a little better. If you think about how this winter has progressed thus far, the latter half of both December (although it did not produce) and January were better winter weather patterns for the SE than the first half of each month. We may very well see that same progression again after mid-month. With respects to the V-Day storm, it appears to me that there is no mechanism at this time time to drive the cold air into the SE prior to the storm. But again, time will tell.

[Cold Rain]

But looking at the 12z GFS is does show the players on the stage (cold air to the west and a storm system). The 12z GFS has this storm pushing north west of the Apps but how many times have we seen the storms trend south and east this year. I think this is still a possibility and if we use the GFS as a tool to study the overall pattern we are still in play for a possible winter storm (somewhere is the SE).

Just before truncation, the southern stream feature cuts off in the SW. Northern stream energy dives in and phases with it after truncation, and we get a low that cuts west and then drives a cold front through with cooler conditions.

The GFS loves to over-emphasize phasing. It could be that the southern system lags behind and the northern stream comes through first, allowing for a colder, more suppressed solution. Of course, that possibility existed with the last big storm and the southern stream wave never cut off, so we got rain.

A lot of possibilities are on the table. It is unwise to totally write it off, but just as unwise to call for a snowstorm as well.

[Cold Rain]

Have you guys noticed the 12 GFS at 96 hours? Looks like a possible CAD setup. I checked the Twister site for Dew point temps and they stay below freezing for at least the northern half of NC through out the event.

** but I do know there is a difference in dew point and wet bulb

I wondered this as well. You notice a strengthening 1040 HP just north of the boarder, with moisture moving into the area. That look always make me take notice. I haven't looked at surface temps or wet bulbs, but that's a pretty stout high up there.

[franklin NCwx]

The GFS ensembles continue to stay consistent with previous runs of building a ridge in the Gulf of Alaska! You can see it starting to build the ridge by 168 hours, then 240 and the always great 384 map!

[WilkesboroDude]

It's not been a bad winter on the other hand ironically for far north Ga/mountains and MS (ms has had a good winter in fact given they have no elevation). Maybe those who live there can correct me but aside from rather miner events, western nc hasn't had a good winter either. No big winter storms that i recall and no big upslope events that I recall either. 

The recent snow is throwing down double digit totals. Northern mountains have been out of school for at least a week because of the constant snowfall.

 

Hurricane Sandy also provided snow. Numerous small events too making this winter not so bad compared to last year. I am thankful a few spilled over in the foothills. 

[franklin NCwx]

Naefs, day 10.

[franklin NCwx]

Euro ensembles slowing coming to the GFS/CMC ensemble idea of building a stout ridge ridge into the gulf of Alaska.  

 

[Tacoma]

just heard the weather thru next Monday , it is boring.  partly cloudy, some showers highs around 45-50 and lows 30-35.  very boring, --------no excitement.     anybody see any good fantasy storms?

[GaWx]

Folks,

 The brand new Euro weeklies, which cover the four weeks from 2/4 through 3/3, have mostly above normal temp.'s for the SE US. The period 2/4-17 is solidly above normal for much of the SE US. Then, 2/17-3/3 cools to only a little above normal. To me, these are quite believable based on past analogs favoring a mild Feb. I remain quite hopeful for a chilly March due to the same analogs.

Precip: 2/4-10 is near normal on avg.; 2/11-24 is above normal. 2/25-3/3 is near normal. So, no dry week is being forecasted.

 

Edit: These weeklies have a mostly -PNA as they have it mostly cold in the western half of the U.S. weeks 2-4. In other words, the cold that keeps showing up on the GFS 11-15 for much of the country hardly ever gets into the SE US for most of Feb.

 

Edit #2: Fwiw, they have a pretty strong  -NAO developing week 3. This strong -NAO remains and becomes somewhat west based week 4.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Folks,

 The brand new Euro weeklies, which cover the four weeks from 2/4 through 3/3, have mostly above normal temp.'s for the SE US. The period 2/4-17 is solidly above normal for much of the SE US. Then, 2/17-3/3 cools to only a little above normal. To me, these are quite believable based on past analogs favoring a mild Feb. I remain quite hopeful for a chilly March due to the same analogs.

Precip: 2/4-10 is near normal on avg.; 2/11-24 is above normal. 2/25-3/3 is near normal. So, no dry week is being forecasted.

 

Edit: These weeklies have a mostly -PNA as they have it mostly cold in the western half of the U.S. weeks 2-4. In other words, the cold that keeps showing up on the GFS 11-15 for much of the country hardly ever gets into the SE US for most of Feb.

Wouldn't that be something ? Warm all winter then when we hit spring (March) it cools down. We have a cool late fall, then as soon as winter hits it warms up dramatically. A warm winter and soon as spring arrives it cools down. Makes a lot of sense.

[pcbjr]

Folks,

 The brand new Euro weeklies, which cover the four weeks from 2/4 through 3/3, have mostly above normal temp.'s for the SE US. The period 2/4-17 is solidly above normal for much of the SE US. Then, 2/17-3/3 cools to only a little above normal. To me, these are quite believable based on past analogs favoring a mild Feb. I remain quite hopeful for a chilly March due to the same analogs.

Precip: 2/4-10 is near normal on avg.; 2/11-24 is above normal. 2/25-3/3 is near normal. So, no dry week is being forecasted.

 

Edit: These weeklies have a mostly -PNA as they have it mostly cold in the western half of the U.S. weeks 2-4. In other words, the cold that keeps showing up on the GFS 11-15 for much of the country hardly ever gets into the SE US for most of Feb.

 

Edit #2: Fwiw, they have a pretty strong  -NAO developing week 3. This strong -NAO remains and becomes somewhat west based week 4.

 

Well, so much for a prayer based on today's 12Z GFS .......

[NCSNOW]

Well it as obvious as seeing your hand in front of your face. The last ditch effort to get winter weather is upon us now. With overwhelming confidence there is almost zero chance of winter weather east of the apps until valentines day. The hope for a valentines day SE snowstorm are being dashed by models as what's in all likelihood going to be a apps runner. Climo wise that leaves most of us with about 3 good weeks left outside of the mountains or a freak March 1960 redux. Right now it looks like model wise the best bet is to keep hope alive because after the apps runner on valentines day , the cold will be coming gangbusters. The question is will it be able to hang around long enough to hook up with some moisture and/or will there be some moisture ( southern stream) available. The entire winter has been dominated by one stream ( i.e. no split flow) and no blocking setup to keep the cold locked in. Will folks who have seen nada for going on 2 years be able to break out of the slump? Will wow be able to show back up and post the phrase made famous in early December " GLORY " and see it actually unfold. Will GAWX who warned us for the past 2 months to watch out for Lucy, see a much below normal March unfold only to deliver 35 degree rainstorms because climo will have won out? Stay tuned and look at the bright side. We just got through 2 of the warmest winters in the last 118 years ( see wx south write up today), next year has to get better because it can't get any worse, right?

[franklin NCwx]

Folks,

The brand new Euro weeklies, which cover the four weeks from 2/4 through 3/3, have mostly above normal temp.'s for the SE US. The period 2/4-17 is solidly above normal for much of the SE US. Then, 2/17-3/3 cools to only a little above normal. To me, these are quite believable based on past analogs favoring a mild Feb. I remain quite hopeful for a chilly March due to the same analogs.

Precip: 2/4-10 is near normal on avg.; 2/11-24 is above normal. 2/25-3/3 is near normal. So, no dry week is being forecasted.

Edit: These weeklies have a mostly -PNA as they have it mostly cold in the western half of the U.S. weeks 2-4. In other words, the cold that keeps showing up on the GFS 11-15 for much of the country hardly ever gets into the SE US for most of Feb.

Edit #2: Fwiw, they have a pretty strong -NAO developing week 3. This strong -NAO remains and becomes somewhat west based week 4.

larry does it have the -epo ridge like the gfs?

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Well it as obvious as seeing your hand in front of your face. The last ditch effort to get winter weather is upon us now. With overwhelming confidence there is almost zero chance of winter weather east of the apps until valentines day. The hope for a valentines day SE snowstorm are being dashed by models as what's in all likelihood going to be a apps runner. Climo wise that leaves most of us with about 3 good weeks left outside of the mountains or a freak March 1960 redux. Right now it looks like model wise the best bet is to keep hope alive because after the apps runner on valentines day , the cold will be coming gangbusters. The question is will it be able to hang around long enough to hook up with some moisture and/or will there be some moisture ( southern stream) available. The entire winter has been dominated by one stream ( i.e. no split flow) and no blocking setup to keep the cold locked in. Will folks who have seen nada for going on 2 years be able to break out of the slump? Will wow be able to show back up and post the phrase made famous in early December " GLORY " and see it actually unfold. Will GAWX who warned us for the past 2 months to watch out for Lucy, see a much below normal March unfold only to deliver 35 degree rainstorms because climo will have won out? Stay tuned and look at the bright side. We just got through 2 of the warmest winters in the last 118 years ( see wx south write up today), next year has to get better because it can't get any worse, right?

I said after last winter that we couldn't possibly ever see another winter that was as bad. I guess I spoke too soon considering this winter has been warmer in Georgia and we've had the same amount of wintry precip (none). Nothing will surprise me from now on. If we go all of next winter without a freeze and have temps in the 80s in January it would not shock me.

[Shawn]

I said after last winter that we couldn't possibly ever see another winter that was as bad. I guess I spoke too soon considering this winter has been warmer in Georgia and we've had the same amount of wintry precip (none). Nothing will surprise me from now on. If we go all of next winter without a freeze and have temps in the 80s in January it would not shock me.

 

The El Nino watch was a big let down of course also.  Maybe we can get a good Nino in the next couple years.  Compared to all the PNA, MJO etc.. I believe in El Nino's weather much more in the deep South.

[FoothillsNC]

Folks,

 The brand new Euro weeklies, which cover the four weeks from 2/4 through 3/3, have mostly above normal temp.'s for the SE US. The period 2/4-17 is solidly above normal for much of the SE US. Then, 2/17-3/3 cools to only a little above normal. To me, these are quite believable based on past analogs favoring a mild Feb. I remain quite hopeful for a chilly March due to the same analogs.

Precip: 2/4-10 is near normal on avg.; 2/11-24 is above normal. 2/25-3/3 is near normal. So, no dry week is being forecasted.

 

Edit: These weeklies have a mostly -PNA as they have it mostly cold in the western half of the U.S. weeks 2-4. In other words, the cold that keeps showing up on the GFS 11-15 for much of the country hardly ever gets into the SE US for most of Feb.

 

Edit #2: Fwiw, they have a pretty strong  -NAO developing week 3. This strong -NAO remains and becomes somewhat west based week 4.

are these the same weeklies that about 3 weeks ago showed  a 4 week cold spell coming to the Southeast? I think Euro has been horrible this year. GFS not that great, but it did sniff out a big western ridge first and that worked out (which ended up producing the Upper low/thundersnow and the clipper regime).

edit to add :  but the cold hasn't really penetrated much past TN/NC line all season thus far. I've noticed each of the 3 last cold spells have shunted more east than south in the preceding few days, so we'll see if the deep south finally can turn cold, or if the current pattern holds sway all Winter.

[GaWx]

larry does it have the -epo ridge like the gfs?

 

 The Euro weeklies have nothing like the big western US ridge of recent 11-15 day GFS runs. Whereas the GFS has the coldest anomalies then moving into the E US, the Euro weeklies keep any cold centered in the western half of the country.