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February Pattern and Storm Discussion


POWERSTROKE

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Wow, it just seems like yesterday.  I can't believe I've been looking at these models for 8 years.  I think there's something wrong w/ me!  LOL!

 

Time flies when you get old rdu...lol

 

00z GFS looked slightly better to me.  There is actually some weak wave phasing in E TX at hr 138, but the wave is never able to go neutral tilt quick enough.  Looks like there is a spec of snow near Columbia at hr 174, with precip off the SC coast....with an inverted trough look

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The GFS continues to advertise very cold temperatures in the coming days.  We've not seen a period like this all winter.  The 00Z GFS continues the trend of NW flow snow showers for east TN and the mountains of TN/NC pretty much all next week.  The 850 mb 0 C line is very far south out to 180, and we finally have evidence of a surface low and associated precipitation wanting to develop.  Here it is at hour 180, quite a ways off the coast, but there is plenty of time for correction between now and then.  You'll also notice the precipitation around Tampa.  I didn't check surface temps, but it's definitely cold enough aloft for snow.

 

wPdOXCo.gif

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The GFS continues to advertise very cold temperatures in the coming days.  We've not seen a period like this all winter.  The 00Z GFS continues the trend of NW flow snow showers for east TN and the mountains of TN/NC pretty much all next week.  The 850 mb 0 C line is very far south out to 180, and we finally have evidence of a surface low and associated precipitation wanting to develop.  Here it is at hour 180, quite a ways off the coast, but there is plenty of time for correction between now and then.  You'll also notice the precipitation around Tampa.  I didn't check surface temps, but it's definitely cold enough aloft for snow.

 

wPdOXCo.gif

I'd go farther and say we haven't seen this modeled look in two years. Cold and dry is possible but we are looking at negative 850 numbers for nearly a week in the ATL area. Can't say I remember that from last winter.

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Excerpt from the very latest HPC Extended: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_extended_disco.php

 

 

 IN THIS PATTERN BY DAY 7 / NEXT SUN PACIFICSYSTEM ENERGY HOLDS JUST OFFSHORE THE PAC NW POISED TO WORK SLOWLYTO THE DOWNSTREAM WRN US MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHILE HPC PROGSSHOW SERN US COASTAL LOW POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM OF QUITE ACOLD/AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL E-CENTRAL US TROUGH.
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This figures to possibly give Nashville and points East in Tennessee potentially 1-4 inches of snow with much higher amounts in the mountains. It will mostly depend on the strength of the spokes of energy that rotate across. Super Bowl weekend they dropped 4-5 inches here in a similar set up for shortwaves/clippers dropping SE into the trough. 

 

This looks like it could be the coldest start to March since 1960 in many places. That of course was a snow bonanza. Especially in upslope areas. I can't believe we'll see that this March, and probably not in our lifetimes. But it'll be nice to see several consecutive days of snowy weather.

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00z euro looks interesting at 144hrs much much more stream seperation, northern branch is diving into the southern stream s/w with very cold air in place. Can't see past 144 on wunderground. It may not amount to much but it looks much much better.

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I feel a good number of us posters outside the mountains will see some flurries out of the upcoming pattern at the least. I hope for more but there is nothing to strongly suggest that at this time. For the folks on the NW side of the Atlanta area I've seen this setup before and it usually results in at least some flurry action. I know that's nothing to get pumped about but with the way things have gone in the last two winters take it where you can get it.

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12Z GFS still too far east with the western ridge and the eastern trough axis.  Still, it was a different look than the 0Z run with the individual waves in the flow.  Definitely an anomalous trough with potential.  But it'll be nice to see an operational model start showing a storm.  A couple of the 0Z ens members had one.  A few more of the 6Z ens members had one too.  But the op still sucks.

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12Z GFS still too far east with the western ridge and the eastern trough axis. Still, it was a different look than the 0Z run with the individual waves in the flow. Definitely an anomalous trough with potential. But it'll be nice to see an operational model start showing a storm. A couple of the 0Z ens members had one. A few more of the 6Z ens members had one too. But the op still sucks.

Agreed, we just need that low to move out more NE into more of a 50/50 position, if it doesn't we won't have a storm.

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More Goofy humor.  Maybe Tampa gets flurries, Tenn. most of Ala. but only Candyman in Columbus, possibly Cory ,, then maybe Rome over to Clayton, the rest of Ga. nada.  SC nada except for right on the N Coast, and NC gets blanked.  Then for fun it fills the water all the way around Fla with precip, but none touches land except maybe Miami, lol.  I wonder how long it takes to write code to get these humor maps :) 

 At least one of my criteria for the Mole Storm is reached.  0 line down to Miami.  It's getting closer, lol. T

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