Cheeznado Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Farther out the 12Z Doc is pretty dull, not even any real super cold. I say bring on severe season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 12z Euro has the cutoff again, ~540, centered over the lower MS River Valley at 192, GFS obviously an outlier with hanging the vortex around in the OH Valley/NE after day 6. Not ready to go with a "game on," but my intial suspecions are that we have rounded the base so to speak. Note the ULL east of Nova Scotia, that is what the global in large part is leaving back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Farther out the 12Z Doc is pretty dull, not even any real super cold. I say bring on severe season. Yup - but it's only one run (and as I'm constantly reminded, things change - sometimes for good and sometimes for not). Still looks chilly, though, if not "cold" per se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 This could be a scenario where the central ATL ridge is a good thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 How cold could 3/1-5 be relative to history in the SE? I have the KATL stats. Keeping in mind the GFS cold bias, the 6Z GFS per MeteoStar has KATL at 31 F, which would be a whopping 20 below normal and 11 below the mid Jan. normal!! The coldest single day to date this winter has been only down to 36 F. Here are the coldest 3/1-5's 1930-2012: **Normal is 51*** -28 1960 major ZR and 0.8" S/IP -37 1943 0.4" S/IP -37 1975 -37 1978 T of S/IP -37 1980 2.7" of S/IP -38 1947 2 T's of S/IP -38 2002 -39 1942 3.7" S/IP -39 1962 2 T's of S/IP -40 1930 -40 1954 -40 2009 4.2" S/IP Even if the 6Z GFS is off by 5 F (very possible considering the cold bias), it would still be 36 F, the 2nd coldest since 1930! Keep in mind that KATL's median total S/IP in the entire season is only 1" and mean 2". Based on the above, I'd think that a T of S/IP would be likely at the very least. I just want to get a high below freezing. 3 years + and counting I don't care if it's March, or April. Just get me a high below freezing again, so I can say I saw a winter once more 25 hours below freezing...that's not so much to ask for..except for recent years of this heat bowl we've been living in. I've gotten 4 inches of rain this week so far, and 8 inches the past two weeks...so getting some cold should be easy after the struggle to get out of this drought, lol. My money, and the Mole's money is on this weekend. If I can get 8 inches of rain out of a number of systems, then sleet and below freezing should be a cinch!! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 12z EURO holds on to something frozen near hour 75 for WNC. A few other frames of additional accumulations too... The Euro is definitely much colder at the surface during this Monday night system than is the GFS. During the time it is printing out those snowfall images, the surface temps are below freezing above a line that basically coincides with I-40. Checking the 850 temps, shows that only the mountains are below freezing over that same time periods. As such, I think we're looking at a decent shot at some freezing rain or sleet (depending on the depth of the warm nose) in and NW of cities such as Hickory, Lenoir, Wilkesboro, Mt. Airy, Winston-Salem, and Greensboro. The further north you are, the better chance there is for seeing more of the frozen stuff. In addition, if the 850s can cool any more, the same regions that got a little snow on Friday morning might see some more overnight Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 One thing if you live in Tn,much of Tn if the bowling ball sets up to the E side of the lakes it should stream moisture down for a couple days.Been watching this the last few runs.Its not a big deal but its there I've thought for a few days watching the gulf respond to the wave moving down that Tues could get real interesting for Tenn, N Ala. and NGa. If that cold air keeps running hard though tomorrow it could catch up...I swear it could...it just has to leave everything on the floor Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 12z makes 6 runs in a row of the GFS bringing snow love to east TN next Thurs/Fri. Now it's showing about 1.5 inches for the central valley and up to 3 for tri cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I'm beginning to think I'm delusional! I'm watching the 18z gfs come in and the 500mb map has all this energy diving south and I'm thinking something has to pop up on the sfc map. I go check the sfc map and nothing! I'm out to hr 183. EDIT: And nothing on the 18z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I'm beginning to think I'm delusional! I'm watching the 18z gfs come in and the 500mb map has all this energy diving south and I'm thinking something has to pop up on the sfc map. I go check the sfc map and nothing! I'm out to hr 183. Patience...the MoleStorm won't show again until maybe Tues night/Wed night. We just want the moisture around for now, and the cold air well south. Notice how well the gulf responds to the early week event, and the cold keeps getting in closer to snow for Ala, Tenn. parts of north Ga. The gulf wants to play, it's itching to play...just need to wait until mid week to see it, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Patience...the MoleStorm won't show again until maybe Tues night/Wed night. We just want the moisture around for now, and the cold air well south. Notice how well the gulf responds to the early week event, and the cold keeps getting in closer to snow for Ala, Tenn. parts of north Ga. The gulf wants to play, it's itching to play...just need to wait until mid week to see it, lol. T Thanks dsaur! I have to admit my patience is running thin...LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 500mb map from Feb 12, 2010 compared to 500h from todays GEFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Euro EPS control run was very close to popping a big dog next weekendish. It also has a good snow storm for the Carolinas in the LR and brings the motherload of cold air in around March 10th of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 BOOM HPC going with Ice Storm Warning criteria for WNC. Advisory Criteria highlighted for trace... High end advisory...>0.1 Ice Storm Warning criteria...Greater than 0.25 Ice Storm Warning Criteria...Greater than half inch of ice. Winter Storm Warning Criteria maybe...starting to highlight some snowfall to not make it all ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Euro EPS control run was very close to popping a big dog next weekendish. It also has a good snow storm for the Carolinas in the LR and brings the motherload of cold air in around March 10th of NC. Is that a 544 cutoff over central FL @ 216hrs; looks closed to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Tuesday morning may be the last wintry ordeal here in the foothills for a while...I see below normal temps and a extremely dry pattern coming up. A few feet of NW flow maybe but don't think that would amount to more than flurries here in Wilkes/Surry. I am not biting on specific 10-20+ day storms so need the Tuesday event to work out here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Tuesday morning may be the last wintry ordeal here in the foothills for a while...I see below normal temps and a extremely dry pattern coming up. A few feet of NW flow maybe but don't think that would amount to more than flurries here in Wilkes/Surry. I am not biting on specific 10-20+ day storms so need the Tuesday event to work out here! Please stop hyper-focusing on your back yard, that behavior is generally frowned upon, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Anyone see the canadian? 972mb low slams the NE at 216hr...wouldn't take much for this to trend in our direction. Just shows some models are trying to sniff something out around then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Goofy definitely has a sense of humor. YOu can see it when it gives Fla and Tenn, and Joe, snow, and the rest of us....not so much, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Goofy definitely has a sense of humor. YOu can see it when it gives Fla and Tenn, and Joe, snow, and the rest of us....not so much, lol. T 4th run in a row to show snow for Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Goofy definitely has a sense of humor. YOu can see it when it gives Fla and Tenn, and Joe, snow, and the rest of us....not so much, lol. T That's the funniest map I have ever seen, what a dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 12z GGEM and ECMWF are extremely similar in the extended, day 7-9, minor timing issues but both bring a system out of FL around 3/3, H5 on the op EC is very impressive after 180, eps control more so. I am on board for this one, officially, high confidence we will see a storm in the period, details remain unseen. Remember the old e-e rule, may have to start a new 4d if in fact this does materialize... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 12z GGEM and ECMWF are extremely similar in the extended, day 7-9, minor timing issues but both bring a system out of FL around 3/3, H5 on the op EC is very impressive after 180, eps control more so. I am on board for this one, officially, high confidence we will see a storm in the period, details remain unseen. Remember the old e-e rule, may have to start a new 4d if in fact this does materialize... I'm with you on this one. I've believed since the day first appeared on the maps...but it's less wish casting now, lol. This one could happen. At least the chances are better than anything in a long time that a storm will pop. But if not for all uf us... I still think Fla sees snow flurries The irony would be too delicious, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 18z gfs says congrats Florence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Well, it is a week later now and there is still "something" out there in the 3-2/3 range. We'll get into 'real' forecasting in about 48-72hrs. The fact the models have generally pointed to a potential this long has me interested....despite it being March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 18z gfs says congrats Florence Congrats KC as well. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Please stop hyper-focusing on your back yard, that behavior is generally frowned upon, thanks! Thank you for saying that, I was thinking the same thing!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 12z GGEM and ECMWF are extremely similar in the extended, day 7-9, minor timing issues but both bring a system out of FL around 3/3, H5 on the op EC is very impressive after 180, eps control more so. I am on board for this one, officially, high confidence we will see a storm in the period, details remain unseen. Remember the old e-e rule, may have to start a new 4d if in fact this does materialize... What is the old e-e rule? 4d? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 What is the old e-e rule? 4d? It was DT's old Double EE Rule - "When the 60 - 84 Hour ETA matches the ECMWF day 3-4 at surface and 500 MB, that is a pretty good winning hand. Take it to the bank." The ETA was replaced with the NAM in 2006. For the "new 4d" rule, I think Weather NC is saying if we get a storm, we should add a 4d rule, as in the Euro and GGEM run 4d-VAR data assimilation. One note on that though is that the GGEM was running 4d-VAR prior to its recent upgrade. So, 4d-VAR is not new to the GGEM http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39325-major-upgrade-coming-to-the-canadian-global-model/?p=2115870 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 It was DT's old Double EE Rule - "When the 60 - 84 Hour ETA matches the ECMWF day 3-4 at surface and 500 MB, that is a pretty good winning hand. Take it to the bank." The ETA was replaced with the NAM in 2006. For the "new 4d" rule, I think Weather NC is saying if we get a storm, we should add a 4d rule, as in the Euro and GGEM run 4d-VAR data assimilation. One note on that though is that the GGEM was running 4d-VAR prior to its recent upgrade. So, 4d-VAR is not new to the GGEM http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39325-major-upgrade-coming-to-the-canadian-global-model/?p=2115870 Wow, it just seems like yesterday. I can't believe I've been looking at these models for 8 years. I think there's something wrong w/ me! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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