GaWx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 On 0Z goofy, KATL barely above 32 for high on 3/2 with decent sunshine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 One thing if you live in Tn,much of Tn if the bowling ball sets up to the E side of the lakes it should stream moisture down for a couple days.Been watching this the last few runs.Its not a big deal but its there[/quotNoticed that as well. Might be able to help the nw GA guys out as well or at least send a snow shower or two their way. Yeah.it looks to be lake effect,it should go N to E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 On 0Z goofy, KATL barely above 32 for high on 3/2 with decent sunshine! I dont see how we can get a storm with that vortex in the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I dont see how we can get a storm with that vortex in the NE yes you can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Think its rather amazing when there is a chance of snow in N/florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 According to the 0z GFS twisterdata maps...there was a trend to more frozen precip for WNC. Other GFS runs were consistently around nothing. Taking a glance...its breaks out 1-3 for much of western VA south into WNC mountains. Like already said, temps may not be really supportive but this is the first run showing anything measurable from twisterdata. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Obviously it's going to warm up after the 15th. It has every year and this year will be no exception. It's called the change of seasons. Exactly, in W-S from the 1st of March to the 15th, the average temp goes up 4 degrees to 61/39 and even if it should be 10degress below normal, that still doesn't equate to wintry weather Now if you go by the climo and the tendency of the CFSv2 and GFS to overstate the cold all winter, I think it is safe to say our time is almost up after the first 10-15 days of March for wintry precip of any consequence for the VAST majority of people (outside of the mountains) on this board. Not a master forecaster at all but I can read the numbers and go by the historical averages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 0z gfs had the same thing that all the other model runs I've seen lately.......cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Think its rather amazing when there is a chance of snow in N/florida What shows that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 0c 850!line makes it to Miami on the 0 z goofy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Gulf of Mexico effect snow shower chance at 192. Too early for a thread Florida folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Surface temps would make that FL snow a non-starter. I don't care what the GFS clown maps show. Tampa isn't seeing snow. That's ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 It looks like the Euro is still favoring a little bit of snow in the mountains at the start of our next system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 It looks like the Euro is still favoring a little bit of snow in the mountains at the start of our next system. Yep and this time includes Hickory/Winston/Reidsville with something light for 1 frame. Best accumulations are for Hendersonville, Marion, Morganton, Lenoir, Boone, and North Wilkesboro. Just looking at Wundermap output. Goodnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 0Z Doc is so close to being special for part of the SE 3/3-4. Anyone else agree? Although there's no telling whether or not wintry precip. will materialize, this is the best (1st) potential yet this winter for something sig. for areas pretty far south. Watch this period on future runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 GFS says upslope snow areas should go ahead and prepare for glory beginning the middle of next week...frequent upslope episodes with massive cold vortex spinning around in the Great Lakes and Northeast 06Z GFS keeps that trend. It shows upslope snow showers on every frame from hour 114 to hour 300. Constant moisture over the mountains for the entire period! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 0Z Doc is so close to being special for part of the SE 3/3-4. Anyone else agree? Although there's no telling whether or not wintry precip. will materialize, this is the best (1st) potential yet this winter for something sig. for areas pretty far south. Watch this period on future runs! Agreed, it has a closed low dropping south into central LA day 8-9, but to positively tilted. There is some southern stream energy which is digging into Mx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 0Z Doc is so close to being special for part of the SE 3/3-4. Anyone else agree? Although there's no telling whether or not wintry precip. will materialize, this is the best (1st) potential yet this winter for something sig. for areas pretty far south. Watch this period on future runs! Yes, I saw that and agree. Although, beyond the CMC, the 240hr map was hinting at something digging into the trough as well. I find it hard to believe with such a massive vortex over the SE something doesn't materialize during the next 10 days..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 0Z Doc is so close to being special for part of the SE 3/3-4. Anyone else agree? Although there's no telling whether or not wintry precip. will materialize, this is the best (1st) potential yet this winter for something sig. for areas pretty far south. Watch this period on future runs! I agree. Where does it go? Energy drops into the base of the trough late according to the Doc. For the past six months, the bullseye for rain has been the TN Valley - as Robert has been saying. My guess is that the next system, if there is one, will follow a similar pattern. Now, the real question...has that changed? Not that I have seen. However, this could be an illusion as it is really out there. But one would think that a big storm could come from this pattern. I don't know the thicknesses, but even parts of Florida are cold enough on the GFS for a little fun - different event though. Someone in the South, maybe more than once, could score big from the upcoming pattern as you have noted often and early. Gotta think with spring wavelengths and plentiful cold, this pattern could produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Gulf of Mexico effect snow shower chance at 192. Too early for a thread Florida folks. Was thinking the same thing. It's rare but it does happen. In fact, I've always been fascinated by ocean effect snow showers in florida. And not to toot my own horn but toot toot. I have mentioned it and gotten it right long before anyone else 850s and 925 temps seem cold enough but surface temps might be a problem. However, I would suspect that given the warm gulf temps and cold mid level temps, there's going to be some instability and there's going to be some rather convective elements (assuming it happens) and that should get at least a mix to the surface. And if it goes over to all snow (especially inland), surface temps should drop enough to even get some accumulation. I would not be surprised if this happens either because if there is some convective elements and heavy precip, it'll probably happen. It should be noted though the euro is not nearly as cold and way too warm. 12z was dry and 0z is wet....ie rain and warm. So as you said, far too early to say this is discussing much or worthy of a thread yet. Just too far out. Gulf of Mexico effect snow shower chance at 192. Too early for a thread Florida folks. Was thinking the same thing. It's rare but it does happen. In fact, I've always been fascinated by ocean effect snow showers in florida. And not to toot my own horn but toot toot. I have mentioned it and gotten it right long before anyone else 850s and 925 temps seem cold enough but surface temps might be a problem. However, I would suspect that given the warm gulf temps and cold mid level temps, there's going to be some instability and there's going to be some rather convective elements (assuming it happens) and that should get at least a mix to the surface. And if it goes over to all snow (especially inland), surface temps should drop enough to even get some accumulation. I would not be surprised if this happens either because if there is some convective elements and heavy precip, it'll probably happen. It should be noted though the euro is not nearly as cold and way too warm. 12z was dry and 0z is wet....ie rain and warm. So as you said, far too early to say this is discussing much or worthy of a thread yet. Just too far out. At any rate, closer to home, it's still impressive how long we stay cold. I still think s/w's rotating around the cutoff low will produce at least some snow showers....especially over west/NW Ga/TN/AL...and of course the TN/NC mountains. It would be hard to believe if it wouldn't happen given the duration of the cold and location of the cutoff low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 some of the other mets are also saying storm could pop in the gulf toward the end of next weekend looking how everything is laid out and some models were hinting at this at one time. Not sure about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 The JMA is very bullish about a system next week that is cold enough for all snow across the SE but it is the JMA Sent from my EVO using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 The JMA is very bullish about a system next week that is cold enough for all snow across the SE but it is the JMA Sent from my EVO using Tapatalk 2 well its a start. maybe more models will start coming on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Noticed the ukmet 5h has the ULL digging further south at hr 72 on Allan site. That's as far as it goes out. Anyway the 6z nam clown map come down from the extreme accums in the mtns, still gives out 8-12 inches Tuesday. SREF continues to start northern foothills off as snow then to ice. And last but not least the 6z DGEX gives west coast Florida some of that ocean effect snow shower love. Be so ethi g if they end up with more snow than me this year ( only need an inch) but I wouldn't be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I think this is the latest SREF run? You are correct NCSNOW.. It seems to be alot colder shows quiet a bit of Ice in the Mountains and Foothills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Noticed the ukmet 5h has the ULL digging further south at hr 72 on Allan site. That's as far as it goes out. Anyway the 6z nam clown map come down from the extreme accums in the mtns, still gives out 8-12 inches Tuesday. SREF continues to start northern foothills off as snow then to ice. And last but not least the 6z DGEX gives west coast Florida some of that ocean effect snow shower love. Be so ethi g if they end up with more snow than me this year ( only need an inch) but I wouldn't be surprised. 6z GFS had snow for S Florida at 180-192 and at 216. Only problem was that suface temps were in the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I'm going to say that NAM snow map is a pure clown map because the NAM soundings for Beech Mtn (via TwisterData) suggest a major ice event rather than a major snow event. NAM shows a strong warm nose between 700 and 850mb. Of course this is 60+ hours away from now but verbatim it is not showing major snow there. this... although meager warm advection will kill a major ice event from being possible as that warm air mixes down dynamically... it's interesting how easy it is to forget that dynamic warming also happens as warm air is pulled down from a warm pocket above as heavy precip falls it's pure gold that the NAM is given so much weight on this board... if one looks at comparisons, it's easy to see this model is shaky... 12z NAM is displaced 300 miles with the core of the upper-low in Oklahoma compared to the 0z NAM valid the same hour... I just looked for S & G, but when are we going to agree to stop looking at that disgraceful model outside of 24 hours in advance? to add, I must admit that I usually wait for Wilkes to post before I determine what p-type will fall over my head hell, I normally wait on a Wilkesborodude-post for confirmation that the coast is clear to attempt to walk out of my house in a safe manner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I beleive the 12z nam is a bit colder than 00z with Monday night/Tuesday event. Not quite as wet either, which is probably good if we want any chance at ice. 12 z is also just a bit slower. From the looks of the NAM, I'd say there is a very good chance that there would be a period of zr. Maybe an extended period. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 this... well, that and the 12z NAM is displaced 300 miles with the core of the upper-low in Oklahoma compared to the 0z NAM from last night last night at the same hour... when are we going to stop looking at that disgraceful model outside of 24 hours in advance? to add, I must admit that I usually wait for Wilkes to post before I determine what p-type will fall over my head hell, I normally wait on a Wilkesborodude-post for confirmation that the coast is clear to attempt to walk out of my house in a safe manner In May when there's no chance of snow here! j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 this... although meager warm advection will kill a major ice event from being possible as that warm air mixes down dynamically... it's interesting how easy it is to forget that dynamic warming also happens as warm air is pulled down from a warm pocket above as heavy precip falls it's pure gold that the NAM is given so much weight on this board... if one looks at comparisons, it's easy to see this model is shaky... 12z NAM is displaced 300 miles with the core of the upper-low in Oklahoma compared to the 0z NAM from last night last night at the same hour... when are we going to stop looking at that disgraceful model outside of 24 hours in advance? to add, I must admit that I usually wait for Wilkes to post before I determine what p-type will fall over my head hell, I normally wait on a Wilkesborodude-post for confirmation that the coast is clear to attempt to walk out of my house in a safe manner Really Great post, especially the bold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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