calculus1 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 2m temps look pretty warm on the 00z NAM, as shown, outside of maybe the higher mountain peaks. We shall see. I have a hard time seeing this scenario playing out well aside from a few inches of snow in the mountains. Respectfully, I don't really agree with that. Both the 00Z NAM and the 21Z SREF show temps in the 30s NW of Charlotte to the mountains. The NAM is even colder than the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I'm going to say that NAM snow map is a pure clown map because the NAM soundings for Beech Mtn (via TwisterData) suggest a major ice event rather than a major snow event. NAM shows a strong warm nose between 700 and 850mb. Of course this is 60+ hours away from now but verbatim it is not showing major snow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 2m temps look pretty warm on the 00z NAM, as shown, outside of maybe the higher mountain peaks. We shall see. I have a hard time seeing this scenario playing out well aside for a few inches for the mountains. Probably not high mountain peak related at all...pretty sure it may be hinting at some freezing rain/cold rain along the eastern part of the mountains. Northern mountains have been advertised several chances of snowfall measured in feet this winter from the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 EURO for one run had 1-2 near Winston...but now looks to keep all the snow limited to Wilkes/Surry and mountains. Possible it comes back. What hr are you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 NCSNOW, I'll help us out in this category, but you weren't kidding either. Wowza! There is a ton of precip progged on this latest run of the NAM, winter or otherwise. I think this one actually has potential for the NW piedmont as well. Time will tell... Appreciate! Can't post maps of the gadget I surfing on tonight. The thing is the 24 hr qpf is over 1.25. You posted 72 hour about the same. If you use the precip type you see it's snow and ice on last frame over the mountains. The 15-20 inch accum is in the neighborhood of MT Mitchell. One run and its the Nam but cutting this in half would be a big event none the less. Snowjoe is 4500 ft in Yancey county. This would get him out of the closet and back on here posting since it bullseye his BY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 What hr are you looking at? Shortly after hour 90 I believe per WunderMaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I'm going to say that NAM snow map is a pure clown map because the NAM soundings for Beech Mtn (via TwisterData) suggest a major ice event rather than a major snow event. NAM shows a strong warm nose between 700 and 850mb. Of course this is 60+ hours away from now but verbatim it is not showing major snow there. Thanks for the reality check, Moto. I don't want to get my hopes up too far. However, you do know that new board rules autocratically implemented by Isohume declare the word verbatim to be verboten, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Thanks for the reality check, Moto. I don't want to get my hopes up too far. However, you do know that new board rules autocratically implemented by Isohume declare the word verbatim to be verboten, right? LOL...hey I majored in Meteorology with is math and science heavy (my two best subjects). English is my worst. LOL Btw...these P-type maps from instantweather maps match what the sounding present...verboten....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 The NAM P-type maps don't indicate any snow of significance. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znamptype072.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znamptype084.gif EDIT: Moto beat me to it, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I'm going to say that NAM snow map is a pure clown map because the NAM soundings for Beech Mtn (via TwisterData) suggest a major ice event rather than a major snow event. NAM shows a strong warm nose between 700 and 850mb. Of course this is 60+ hours away from now but verbatim it is not showing major snow there. The clown map is exaggerated no doubt. One thing to keep in mind this is a ULL bowling ball and 3800 feet up under a ULL is an exception in this part of the conus rather than the rule. So who how's how the dynamics would shake out under these circumstances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Shortly after hour 90 I believe per WunderMaps. Much as i wanted to disagree with you,pro map show dp's 30 surface 30-35 and precip falling around midnight,good for you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Respectfully, I don't really agree with that. Both the 00Z NAM and the 21Z SREF show temps in the 30s NW of Charlotte to the mountains. The NAM is even colder than the SREF. I haven't looked at the SREF, but the NAM shows sub-freezing temperatures in the mountains, but that's about it. The rest of the Piedmont is stuck in the mid to upper 30s and eventually warms to near 40 by hr 84. It just looks like a cold rain to me, but I hope I'm wrong (or maybe not ... don't really want ZR!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 The clown map is exaggerated no doubt. One thing to keep in mind this is a ULL bowling ball and 3800 feet up under a ULL is an exception in this part of the conus rather than the rule. So who how's how the dynamics would shake out under these circumstances. Very true. Elevation is always king with ULL's. The soundings I was looking at was for areas over 3k feet up. I wish I could figure out how to copy and paste TwisterData soundings without it getting all jumbled up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Found out I could just save the image of the skew T instead. Check out that massive warm nose just above 850. This sounding takes into account being at over 3k feet elevation. This has got major ice storm written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I haven't looked at the SREF, but the NAM shows sub-freezing temperatures in the mountains, but that's about it. The rest of the Piedmont is stuck in the mid to upper 30s and eventually warms to near 40 by hr 84. It just looks like a cold rain to me, but I hope I'm wrong (or maybe not ... don't really want ZR!). The SREF was a little more sexy looking 850 over triad into northern foothills. That's what sent me on the 0znam chase. Then I was shocked in discovering the clown maps as they unfolded. It gets things rolling a good 6 hours earlier compared to nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 LOL...hey I majored in Meteorology with is math and science heavy (my two best subjects). English is my worst. LOL Btw...these P-type maps from instantweather maps match what the sounding present...verboten....lol Verboten is the German word for forbidden. (It's one of the few German words I know, picked up from watching old WWII movies.) I was trying to play off its similar sound to the English word verbatim and Isohume's apparent dislike for that word, for some reason. I haven't looked at the SREF, but the NAM shows sub-freezing temperatures in the mountains, but that's about it. The rest of the Piedmont is stuck in the mid to upper 30s and eventually warms to near 40 by hr 84. It just looks like a cold rain to me, but I hope I'm wrong (or maybe not ... don't really want ZR!). I definitely agree that the temps, as modeled, are not below freezing. I was just implying that in 84 hours time, temps currently being modeled in the mid- to upper-30s could possibly turn out to be colder, if CAD strengthens. However, we just had a similar situation this morning, and temps actually remained a little warmer than many models were forecasting just prior to the event. So, who really knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 NAM real close to Ice here! MON 7P 25-FEB 0.8 -0.6 1020 88 100 0.20 563 548 TUE 1A 26-FEB -0.1 2.6 1015 96 99 0.44 562 550 TUE 7A 26-FEB 0.7 6.4 1005 97 100 0.63 557 553 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 While the NAM snowfall maps have been a known problem for years, can the same be said of the EURO? I don't recall the EURO snowfall maps having the NAM issues...could be wrong. Anyway Raysweather has been been mentioning an icy mix here in Wilkes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 NAM real close to Ice here! MON 7P 25-FEB 0.8 -0.6 1020 88 100 0.20 563 548 TUE 1A 26-FEB -0.1 2.6 1015 96 99 0.44 562 550 TUE 7A 26-FEB 0.7 6.4 1005 97 100 0.63 557 553 Can you get soundings for your area off SREF? If my memory serves me correct it looked colder for you and surrounding counties. Should get a front end inch of snow looking at 21z sref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I definitely agree that the temps, as modeled, are not below freezing. I was just implying that in 84 hours time, temps currently being modeled in the mid- to upper-30s could possibly turn out to be colder, if CAD strengthens. However, we just had a similar situation this morning, and temps actually remained a little warmer than many models were forecasting just prior to the event. So, who really knows? Yes, I think we are in agreement, then. Of course, the 00z GFS looks completely different than the NAM. It's a lot slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Can you get soundings for your area off SREF? If my memory serves me correct it looked colder for you and surrounding counties. Should get a front end inch of snow looking at 21z sref No can't seem to find it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 gfs dont look like snow for the mountains,to much WAA and its coming in the afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Hp is in a good spot for cad though. We'll see what happens. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 GFS may not be cold enough for Tuesday but sure as heck is juicy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Hp is in a good spot for cad though. We'll see what happens. TW Kinda weak though 1024 or so, need it to trend stronger! But yes it is in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 One thing if you live in Tn,much of Tn if the bowling ball sets up to the E side of the lakes it should stream moisture down for a couple days.Been watching this the last few runs.Its not a big deal but its there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 So it appears to be the battle between EURO/NAM vs. GFS. Probably all wrong and will compromise within 48 hours to show some ice in WNC IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 GFS shade to warm for mischief tues compared to nam sref. Also seeing that eastern VA low again for Thursday. Might be good for Vance warren Halifax county then gets Delaware with a few inches on its way ots. I think after this time frame earlier run today it wraps up and slingshots back into Boston and they got walloped again. Nonetheless something that NE NC may be able to trend in their favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 One thing if you live in Tn,much of Tn if the bowling ball sets up to the E side of the lakes it should stream moisture down for a couple days.Been watching this the last few runs.Its not a big deal but its there[/quot Noticed that as well. Might be able to help the nw GA guys out as well or at least send a snow shower or two their way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 GFS says upslope snow areas should go ahead and prepare for glory beginning the middle of next week...frequent upslope episodes with massive cold vortex spinning around in the Great Lakes and Northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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