pcbjr Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Average last day for a freeze here is today. Bring on an average buster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Average last day for a freeze here is today. Bring on an average buster! You are nearly 50 degrees warmer than me right now. That is like snow vs. sand cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 You are nearly 50 degrees warmer than me right now. That is like snow vs. sand cover. Watch it,everything is surpressed,i can see a BOMB going through Gator Country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 GFS has backed off the big warm up on the 18,it even shows some -20 in N/DAK at the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 ^ We'll see a bomb during March Madness in Gator Country. Dadgumit - snow in the Rowdy Reptiles. In all seriousness - 2 days ago, GFS was back to several nights of below 30º; now seems to be backing off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 ^ We'll see a bomb during March Madness in Gator Country. Dadgumit - snow in the Rowdy Reptiles. In all seriousness - 2 days ago, GFS was back to several nights of below 30º; now seems to be backing off. Euro still shows some well below numbers,showing some dp's 40 close to Miaimi,that should be well below norms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 ^ We'll see a bomb during March Madness in Gator Country. Dadgumit - snow in the Rowdy Reptiles. In all seriousness - 2 days ago, GFS was back to several nights of below 30º; now seems to be backing off. I'm betting pretty far down there will see some flurries over the next few weeks if the weeklies are pretty good at sniffing things out. I think by Wed we'll have a lot better idea of how cold we'll be seeing it, unless bizzaro's anti forecast works out for him, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Anything down here past 2/28 is a freak - but it has happened. 18Z isn't making me "freak out" (yet) - though at 2 M it is still warmer than 12Z, which was warmer than 6Z, which was warmer than 0Z ..... I hope you are correct: I'm betting pretty far down there will see some flurries over the next few weeks if the weeklies are pretty good at sniffing things out. Beer's on me if so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Just don't see any strong signal on any of the models for a snow in March before the warm-up after the 15th which is likely to occur in a quick change scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Third run in a row of the GFS dumping a bit of snow in east TN next Thurs/Fri. I'm digging the consistency, pardon the IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Just don't see any strong signal on any of the models for a snow in March before the warm-up after the 15th which is likely to occur in a quick change scenario You are talking 30 days long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Have to admit its hard to complain after spending the entire day stuck on 34-35 degrees and watching it rain. I long for days like this during July and August, way better deal IMO. I've had 2 separate occasions in this past week of seeing frozen precip. Last Saturday it snowed for almost 7 straight hours and I have zero accumulation from both events. Next opportunity is all but about 65 hours away. 21 z sref basically has a redux of the current event, except it should yield better results for the mtns and northern foothills possibly. Font end mix , to freezing rain to cold rain. Then the big March in like a lion pattern should unfold. I have to admit the configuration of the axis that sets up is gonna be the deciding factor of cold/dry v/s big ticket storm. I just hope after waiting 2 years it produces. Been a fab feb temp wise as we will come in below normal at Greensboro for sure now and could have got our annual Feb snow if it would have stuck last Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Just don't see any strong signal on any of the models for a snow in March before the warm-up after the 15th which is likely to occur in a quick change scenario You must be a master forecaster to know that it's going to warm up after the 15th. That's only 3+ weeks away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 0ZNAM out to 72 right in line with 21z serf. Looks like it could put down a inch or 2 in mountains and northern foothills. I'd be a whole lot more interested in this event then the current one from last night. Watch the trends on 850 s over the weekend. Lot more qpf with this one if you can get the cold to work in your favor Edit go check out the accumulated 84 hour snow map 1 foot plus in the mtns. They mix with ice at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I can see the bust potential too but I can also see it verifying. 50/50...CFSV2 has been out to lunch this winter so not sure what to believe. It has been super wet that even the hard struck drought areas are seeing major improvement. I can see it being dry for 2 weeks in March for some here. Please specifically expound as to just HOW out to lunch the CFS has been...It's prog for the ending weeks of January weren't too far from reality, as I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 The event early next week could be similar to this last one...maybe a touch warmer. You want to see good confluence in the NE, a strong signal for cold HP, and a very cold air source from which cold, dry air can be advected in. Most of those elements are not modeled to be in a state that would favor anything more than another nuisance event. The way it looks now, it will be another cold rain event for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Just don't see any strong signal on any of the models for a snow in March before the warm-up after the 15th which is likely to occur in a quick change scenario Talk about long range... Look for the signals that show up for 3-5 days out. That's where your statistical money should be. It shouldn't be a concern to not see signals almost 1 month from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Robert's comments for Monday on Twitter @WxSouth: Powerful bowling ball upper low tracks through mid South Monday night. More snow nw side, severe near Gulf possible. Snow, Ice western Va/NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Y Robert's comments for Monday on Twitter @WxSouth: Powerful bowling ball upper low tracks through mid South Monday night. More snow nw side, severe near Gulf possible. Snow, Ice western Va/NC Yep nam crushes the northern mtns. I wish I could post the clown map for you guys. Worth a road trip if that verefies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 0ZNAM out to 72 right in line with 21z serf. Looks like it could put down a inch or 2 in mountains and northern foothills. I'd be a whole lot more interested in this event then the current one from last night. Watch the trends on 850 s over the weekend. Lot more qpf with this one if you can get the cold to work in your favor Edit go check out the accumulated 84 hour snow map 1 foot plus in the mtns. They mix with ice at the end of the run. The computer generated snowfall maps are based on some pre-set algorithms that are not really valid for this event. Mixed precip should just cause light accumulations for mountains/foothills if it is cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 You must be a master forecaster to know that it's going to warm up after the 15th. That's only 3+ weeks away. Obviously it's going to warm up after the 15th. It has every year and this year will be no exception. It's called the change of seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 The computer generated snowfall maps are based on some pre-set algorithms that are not really valid for this event. Mixed precip should just cause light accumulations for mountains/foothills if it is cold enough. Really Wilkes. Thanks for clueing me in. It has over 1.25 qpf all frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Y Yep nam crushes the northern mtns. I wish I could post the clown map for you guys. Worth a road trip if that verefies Shows 10" in the mountains....overdone likely 4 to 6. Still I will take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Really Wilkes. Thanks for clueing me in. It has over 1.25 qpf all frozen I am going with King EURO...for days now it continues to show warning criteria snow from roughly Asheville to Mount Airy. More like 3-6 with locally heavier amounts. Could change probably will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teconnectivity2013 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Shows 10" in the mountains....overdone likely 4 to 6. Still I will take it! does it show anything for the piedmont of both north and south carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Yep nam crushes the northern mtns. I wish I could post the clown map for you guys. Worth a road trip if that verefies NCSNOW, I'll help us out in this category, but you weren't kidding either. Wowza! There is a ton of precip progged on this latest run of the NAM, winter or otherwise. I think this one actually has potential for the NW piedmont as well. Time will tell... Here's the snowfall map at 84 hours: And here's the 72 hour precip at 84 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 NAM AT 84,step back,breathe deep ,say it will never happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Folks, Per the 18Z Goofy per MeteoStar, the average temp. for KATL for 3/1-5 will be 36 F. Now, I fully realize that the GFS has a cold bias. However, in this case, the blocking is so impressive and the models have been so consistent that I can believe this 36 as a legit.possibility. A 36 F would be a whopping 6 F colder than mid Jan! It is 15 F below normal. Also, KATL's coldest day to this point was 2/17's 36! Even if this run were 4 F too cold, it would still be a cold 40 F, which is 2 F colder than mid Jan.'s norm. How cold would 36 F be in relation to history at KATL? - Since 1930, only one 3/1-5 was colder: the 28 F of 1960. 1960's 3/1-5 had a major ZR as well as 0.8" of S. -Tied for 2nd were four cases of 37's: 1943, 1975, 1978, and 1980. An impressive two of those 3/1-5's produced measurable snows: 1943 (0.4") and 1980 (2.7"). 1978 produced a T. 1975 had no S. -Tied for 6th at 38 were 1947 and 2002. 1947 had two days with T's. 2002 had none. -Tied for 8th at 39 -were 1942 and 1962. 1942 had a major (3.7") whereas 1962 had two T's. -Tied for 10th at 40 were 1930 (none), 1954 (none), and 2009 (major of 4.2"). So, to summarize, the coldest eleven 3/1-5's since 1930 at KATL, whose values ranged from 29 to 40 F, had multiinch S 3 of the 11, measurable S 5 of the 11, at least a T of S 7 of the 11, and major ZR once. So, 4 of the 11 had either a major ZR or a multiinch S. Those are pretty respectable odds for just a five day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 2m temps look pretty warm on the 00z NAM, as shown, outside of maybe the higher mountain peaks. We shall see. I have a hard time seeing this scenario playing out well aside from a few inches of snow in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 does it show anything for the piedmont of both north and south carolina EURO for one run had 1-2 near Winston...but now looks to keep all the snow limited to Wilkes/Surry and mountains. Possible it comes back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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