GaWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Like the 12Z Goofy, the 12Z Good Doctor also may have its trough further west based on hour 156. Let's see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 But check out the storm at 192. Wow! Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 JMA is on board with the Euro weeklies! So a heck of long ways to go before spring.. Deep trough week two in the se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Euro was closer this run for mid next week, but ended up with a late developing coastal with snow breaking out in E VA on Thurs. There were a few 12z GFS Ens members with a SE storm Yep and If Im a betting man my money over the next 2 weeks is on eastern NC as prime spot # 1 outside the NWSF events to score a big one. Heres the Thurs event next few days show potential for the coastal areas as well. Close but no cigar deals, but ENC looks most favorable at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 But check out the storm at 192. Wow! Tw Here you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Euro was closer this run for mid next week, but ended up with a late developing coastal with snow breaking out in E VA on Thurs. There were a few 12z GFS Ens members with a SE storm Close for us, grazes the MA and than pounds the NE....again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The hr192 posts...that's from yesterday's run - OK, image has updated now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Deep cold trough on the Euro, but dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Euro close in the D6-D10 range of a big storm for early March. Just need the s/w over the SW diving south at 144 to trend stronger to allow greater separation between the storm over the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Euro close in the D6-D10 range of a big storm for early March. Just need the s/w over the SW diving south at 144 to trend stronger to allow greater separation between the storm over the east. Keep an eye on the noisy STJ for embedded disturbances riding ENE from the EPAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Keep an eye on the noisy STJ for embedded disturbances riding ENE from the EPAC. Looks like there is actually a LOT of "noise" in the northern branch to go along with that fairly healthy wave in the southwest at 144. It wouldn't take a lot of tweaking to generate a storm of the wintry variety. I could see something phasing if the vortex around the great lakes was in a different spot and there is a second, more consolidated wave diving in as the impulse in the southwest comes east Anyone with Euro ensemble access care to give us a run down here in a few when they see them would be much appreciated. I have to get on the road. TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 18z Hi-res NAM 60 hours...good rains for the South-East. Should be slightly above freezing back in far WNC overnight Monday. Then CPC is going dry for most of the US for 1-2 weeks which brings us to around March 11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 New map made yesterday for March outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 euro control run is meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I would say I smell a bust coming on, for both of your last two posts. I can't imagine a period THAT dry for 2 weeks in March, and all signs point to below normal temps for much of the first two weeks of March. Even with a dramatic turnaround that temp forecast would be in trouble from the get go. New map made yesterday for March outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Doesn't quite match these either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I would say I smell a bust coming on, for both of your last two posts. I can't imagine a period THAT dry for 2 weeks in March, and all signs point to below normal temps for much of the first two weeks of March. Even with a dramatic turnaround that temp forecast would be in trouble from the get go. I can see the bust potential too but I can also see it verifying. 50/50...CFSV2 has been out to lunch this winter so not sure what to believe. It has been super wet that even the hard struck drought areas are seeing major improvement. I can see it being dry for 2 weeks in March for some here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 But the CFSv2 also shows below normal precip too. I'd would think that's based on the cold air that will be in place. But remember, it doesn't take a lot of precip when it's cold enough. Plus, with the cold air in place, it forces storms to take a more favorable track for SE snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I can see the bust potential too but I can also see it verifying. 50/50...CFSV2 has been out to lunch this winter so not sure what to believe. It has been super wet that even the hard struck drought areas are seeing major improvement. I can see it being dry for 2 weeks in March for some here. I agree about the CFS being out to lunch. But this time the models and teleconnections are also agreeing, which they didn't do before. I don't think any of the models could get a handle on the overpowering Pacific this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 WxSouth saying this is how you want to see the GFS at that time, though. http://www.facebook.com/#!/WxSouth What's a retrograding flow? Dumb question probably, but I just don't know. Trough goes east to west? It sounds like Robert likes the GFS look better than the EURO. I thought we wanted the other way around. I'm getting lost in a whirlwind of meteorological ambiguity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 18z Hi-res NAM 60 hours...good rains for the South-East. Should be slightly above freezing back in far WNC overnight Monday. Then CPC is going dry for most of the US for 1-2 weeks which brings us to around March 11th. Looks like the EPS,bringing a 1000 through the mountains/TN/NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Not biting on any type of winter weather pattern for March. The average last freeze date for Wilkes is near April 21st so we should always see some cold relatively speaking. I think we can see up to the first week of March colder than normal...from some of the data you guys are showing...but still end up above normal for the month like the CPC is showing too. I don't consider (1) March snowstorm a developing winter weather pattern so will leave that there as a possibility...seeing how recent winters have produced something in March! We have more rain this weekend...and early next week. That will send the totals in the 8-16 inch range for the month for some places to our south. I do buy much below normal precip in the 7-14+ day range...which could consequently be cooler than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Anyone with Euro ensemble access care to give us a run down here in a few when they see them would be much appreciated. I have to get on the road. TIA Nothing of note really with the Euro Ensemble...pretty well matches the op run with the longwave pattern. Strong -NAO blocking with deep cold trough developing in the east. Western ridge looks similar. The ensemble mean was noticeably less amped with the wave through the southern plains mid next week, but probably to be expected with a mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I can see the bust potential too but I can also see it verifying. 50/50...CFSV2 has been out to lunch this winter so not sure what to believe. It has been super wet that even the hard struck drought areas are seeing major improvement. I can see it being dry for 2 weeks in March for some here. Didn't you say a few weeks ago how the skies needed to heal and how it would dry out? How did that work for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 What's a retrograding flow? Dumb question probably, but I just don't know. Trough goes east to west? It sounds like Robert likes the GFS look better than the EURO. I thought we wanted the other way around. I'm getting lost in a whirlwind of meteorological ambiguity. When you have strong high latitude ridging, the ridging has a tendency to retrograde a bit to the west which tends to block up the flow even further, forcing deep troughs and ridges upstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Not biting on any type of winter weather pattern for March. The average last freeze date for Wilkes is near April 21st so we should always see some cold relatively speaking. I think we can see up to the first week of March colder than normal...from some of the data you guys are showing...but still end up above normal for the month like the CPC is . You do understand what it would take to reverse a week plus of -15 daily departures, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Nothing of note really with the Euro Ensemble...pretty well matches the op run with the longwave pattern. Strong -NAO blocking with deep cold trough developing in the east. Western ridge looks similar. The ensemble mean was noticeably less amped with the wave through the southern plains mid next week, but probably to be expected with a mean. Nothing of note really with the Euro Ensemble...pretty well matches the op run with the longwave pattern. Strong -NAO blocking with deep cold trough developing in the east. Western ridge looks similar. The ensemble mean was noticeably less amped with the wave through the southern plains mid next week, but probably to be expected with a mean. If somehow that piece in the GOM could become less surpressed around D9 that would be a big storm for you guys possibly,something to keep an eye on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 You do understand what it would take to reverse a week plus of -15 daily departures, right? Yes..for the negative departures to trend slightly warmer leading up to it and then for a strong March sun to give us +15 departures beyond the first week of March. It may not be a hot March but I don't see how we can rule out the possibility of it being above normal either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 12z EURO still showing something frozen on the WunderMaps for several frames. hour 90 2-3 south-west of Asheville hour 93 3-4 just east of Asheville...2-3 for Boone and Asheville....1-2 North Wilkesboro hour 96 2-3 North Wilkesboro...Mount Airy... And lighter returns through 102. Probably a cold rain here and high elevation snow/mix the more likely outcome... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Yes..for the negative departures to trend slightly warmer leading up to it and then for a strong March sun to give us +15 departures beyond the first week of March. It may not be a hot March but I don't see how we can rule out the possibility of it being above normal either. You better hope your trend starts soon ........bc if anything it's going away from your thoughts and looks to be digging a big hole for you to get out of. Maybe cpc has a job opening for you. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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