February Pattern and Storm Discussion

[franklin NCwx]

Per coastalwx the op gfs beats the op euro at day 8. Besides op models are not great past 5 days.

[Nraleigh]

Doesn't it seem they always lean toward the model with the most conservative look at the time?

I think that is because, for this area, that is climatalogically what usually happens.  They have to have a lot of strong reasons to say otherwise.

[DaculaWeather]

I just saw this looking at ffc's homepage and they now have weekly web briefings videos on youtube. Maybe I missed this being mentioned but I  had no idea they have been doing this and I'm sure I'm the only one. 

 

Anyway, they started. apparently. not too long with 13 videos uploaded dating back a month or so.  Maybe other offices have been doing this for a while, I don't know...but I think it's cool they are doing it.

 

Here is this weeks link to the flooding/rainfall potential in the coming days. Now it is a day old  but still good (nice graphics alone make it worth it)

 

The only the thing I would wish for is it would be awesome if they would update these videos every day when facing severe weather, winter weather, heavy rains, etc as needed. For example, uploading one today after this mornings rainfall reports and new model runs. I know though they are real busy but maybe they can make it happen. (you ffc forecasters that visit or post here...hint hint lol )

 

Still can't complain too much though and glad they are doing it.

I think Jessica Fieux ([email protected]) would be the one to contact. She's been very helpful and responsive in my dealings with them. They also have a lady met that goes by TDP that does outstanding AFD's now. Very impressed.

[Tacoma]

I see no one wants to comment on the 00z GFS LR? It looked abysmal for late winter lovers. Gotta hope that is just a hiccup. The Euro EPS Control run looked good for the LR even had a few chances of southern snow. One thing to remember is that while the models may not be showing what we want the last two systems we've had (for NC anyways) showed up about 3 days out. Just don't be surprised if we have something to watch come next Monday or Tuesday for the following weekend. 

I hope your right on watching next week for something next weekend.  models have been hinting at something for next weekend.  if the cold air gets all the way down in the gulf maybe and sometimes a storm will pop up.  Let's hope.

[Bevo]

I'll take the longrange Euro over the GFS anytime. Not to say the Euro is right, but I think it gets it right more times in the longrange versus the GFS. I don't really like the extreme cold solutions, though. That usually means cold and dry when it is that cold. But all winter the models have backed off on the extreme cold the closer we get to the event. If it does get that cold, maybe we can cash in on something like you said at the beginning or the end before it is too dry.

 

In a split flow set up - yes.  I agree without question.

 

Outside of a split flow, or in late spring, summer and fall months - GFS can hold her own.

[Tacoma]

alright show me some love someone.  tell us that the models are looking good for next weekend.  at least there is a little excitement when that happens.  when is the cold suppose to start, just looked at the 15 day and it still shows 40's and 50's thru March 8.  or is this the nws being conservative right now?

[Lookout]

I think Jessica Fieux ([email protected]) would be the one to contact. She's been very helpful and responsive in my dealings with them. They also have a lady met that goes by TDP that does outstanding AFD's now. Very impressed.

I know we have some that come here with even one or two who sometimes post here...just can't recall their names....just hope they see my post (and my pimping of their videos LOL)

 

If I'm too lazy,  forget (like I often do), and since you have already had good contacts/responses with her/them, would you mind doing it just in case? Maybe you can get her to post her, we would *love* to have her here...regardless big thanks goes out to her for the responses and great afd's. She now has a new fan. I'll still email them/her about it though if I'm not too stupid to forget lol

 

At any rate,  their afd's overall have improved a lot vs the past for sure. Instead of a paragraph or even a few sentences, we now get detailed and long discussions. I've often been critical of them for a very long time for their short afd's,  lack of reasoning, and info but I can't do so anymore and I'm really really happy they have changed.

 

BIG kudos to FFC for giving us long discussions, a lot more reasonings, and to me improved forecasts overall. Other than a few exceptions (like them going too overboard with winter weather events  a few times this year...which to me is better than underestimating winter potential), I've been happy and impressed with their forecasts. It's nice to say that and I don't think it's a coincidence either with their improved discussions. I don't know the names of the forecasters but I have to believe they have some new ones to be so much better.

 

Btw, here is the latest forecast for the total rainfall amounts through early next week. I certainly would be happy with it since they show 4-6 inches here . (and hpc is bullish too)

 

[SnowNiner]

Per coastalwx the op gfs beats the op euro at day 8. Besides op models are not great past 5 days.

 

That's pretty well understood I think.  Even CPC gives more weight to the GFS in the long range this winter over the EURO.  I think if I had to guess, there's a good chance the GFS is right and we stay cold and dry.  On the other hand, the GFS has been very good at pattern recognition, but I wonder if that accuracy has carried over to pattern location?  It seems the ridge it sniffed out is going to come about, but I don't necessarily know if it's going to be right about the location of it; which seems to be so very important to us. 

[Mr Bob]

I've noticed this also and don't like the looks of it. No storm is going to be able to make the turn so you have everything south and east. If the ridge continues to show up east, we are looking at a cold and dry type pattern imo. I could be wrong (my wife tells me I am all the time) and hope I am.

The latest Euro weeklies from last night suggest that a good chunk of March will be below normal in the southeastern US suggesting that blocking sticks around through the 4 week period. This has been a stable feature in the weeklies for 4 runs now.  While the relative strength of this does feature cold and dry for us in the mid term, a very gradual weakening over the second and third week of March would perhaps allow for a more active period during that time frame...Larry was gold on this...credit where credit is due! We will just have to wait and see if it is too late for winter frivolity...(Yes! A somewhat hopeful post from Mr Bob regarding winter! )

[tnweathernut]

The latest Euro weeklies from last night suggest that a good chunk of March will be below normal in the southeastern US suggesting that blocking sticks around through the 4 week period. This has been a stable feature in the weeklies for 4 runs now.  While the relative strength of this does feature cold and dry for us in the mid term, a very gradual weakening over the second and third week of March would perhaps allow for a more active period during that time frame...Larry was gold on this...credit where credit is due! We will just have to wait and see if it is too late for winter frivolity...(Yes! A somewhat hopeful post from Mr Bob regarding winter! )

 

I agree, if this unfolds like the weeklies suggest, I think Larry will have done a GREAT job and his statistical abilities will have pegged this.  Kudos to him. 

[griteater]

I don't know if anyone else noticed, but it appears as if the ridge that was progged to be ON the west coast from the Euro just a couple of days ago is now progged to be inland and inching east (ala the GFS). Who knows how this period of extreme blocking works out, but without something undercutting the ridge it would lead me to believe we see the dreaded cold and dry for most.

I've noticed this also and don't like the looks of it. No storm is going to be able to make the turn so you have everything south and east. If the ridge continues to show up east, we are looking at a cold and dry type pattern imo. I could be wrong (my wife tells me I am all the time) and hope I am.

 

Agree, Agree, and the GFS/GFS Ensemble ideas are leading the way here.  

[Brick Tamland]

Allan Huffman giving some hope from his blog today.

 

The pattern seems very threatening for a suppressed storm system to form and bring the threat of wintry precipitation to areas far to the south. However, the models are not latching on to any one s/w yet or one storm system. Some of the various ensemble members do show winter storms, but none of the operational models yet, although the 00z ECMWF is very close. Stay tuned to the 2/28 through 3/5 time frame as I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a storm threat pop up in that time window. Either way it looks to be well below normal temperature wise.

 

http://www.examiner.com/article/cold-close-to-winter-ahead?CID=examiner_alerts_article

[SnowNiner]

Allan Huffman giving some hope from his blog today.

 

 

 

http://www.examiner.com/article/cold-close-to-winter-ahead?CID=examiner_alerts_article

 

I have to give props to Allan on our last 45 minute blizzard a couple weeks ago, he always stayed positive on that storm even though the models never really sniffed it out until a couple days ahead of time.  Although Raleigh always had a better chance with that storm to begin with...maybe that's why. 

 

Also, here's a question, no matter the ridge axis, if the trough went negative tilt like the last storm we had, wouldn't that cause a LOW to form in the gulf?  If the western ridge is steep enough, can't that be an option on the table too?  Just trying to look at past circumstances and come up with alternatives we could look at. 

[Lookout]

Allan Huffman giving some hope from his blog today.

 

 

http://www.examiner.com/article/cold-close-to-winter-ahead?CID=examiner_alerts_article

Allan is good as always.

And I said earlier, Even if there is not a big storm, I expect s/w's/clippers rotating around the cutoff low. At this point, I don't expect the models to latch on to them, get the timing right, get the strength right, or get the precip right.(which also means the chance for a larger storm)

And given how long it's forecast to there and how cold it will be for so long it would be surprising if nothing came out of it. So I think someone will get a little snow regardless. Just hope it won't be along the gulf coast

[Stovepipe]

While we are waiting on the 12z suite, I thought I'd mention that both the 06z GFS and the 00z Euro from last night show snow in east TN next Thursday.  Only an inch or so, but hey, it's something to keep an eye on.

[franklin NCwx]

I have to give props to Allan on our last 45 minute blizzard a couple weeks ago, he always stayed positive on that storm even though the models never really sniffed it out until a couple days ahead of time.  Although Raleigh always had a better chance with that storm to begin with...maybe that's why. 

 

Also, here's a question, no matter the ridge axis, if the trough went negative tilt like the last storm we had, wouldn't that cause a LOW to form in the gulf?  If the western ridge is steep enough, can't that be an option on the table too?  Just trying to look at past circumstances and come up with alternatives we could look at. 

No, If the ridge axis is too far east then then trough axis will be too far east.

[jaxjagman]

GFS has slowed down to the Euro,if the L headed to the OV drops anymore S,Ark wil hit it nice again

[tnweathernut]

GFS has slowed down to the Euro,if the L headed to the OV drops anymore S,Ark wil hit it nice again

 

It would not surprise me at all to see this trend to the south and east.  Not enough to help anyone on this board (save potential CAD areas), but giving Arkansas a good chance, along with parts of Kentucky, and maybe even areas around TN and northern MS (though not currently modeled to do so)

[GaWx]

 The 12Z Goofy at hour 150 has the trough further west than the prior runs. This could ultimately make things more interesting for the SE later in the run. Let's see!

[Chattownsnow]

that blocking high south of Greenland just stops the GL low in its tracks. it just wont go away.

[Srain]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1058 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

VALID 12Z MON FEB 25 2013 - 12Z FRI MAR 01 2013

...'BLOCKY' PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

...ACTIVE MIDWEST WINTER STORM TRACK EXPECTED...DAYS 3-5...

TRENDS CONTINUED WITH THE BLOCKY (NEGATIVE) NAO PATTERN EMERGING
IN THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS DEFINITELY
COME AROUND TO THE IDEA THAT THE SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST CYCLONE
PROGRESSION ACROSS THE CONUS WILL COME TO A HALT AROUND DAY 5. THE
PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND SPLITTING SYSTEMS CONTINUES
THROUGH DAY 7.

AS A BASELINE...THE MANUAL GRAPHICS EASILY MAINTAINED CONTINUITY
WITH THE PREVIOUS PROGS BY USING A BLEND OF THE 22/06Z GEFS MEAN
AND 22/00Z ECMWF MEAN. BOTH WERE GIVEN EQUAL WEIGHTING ALOFT...AND
THEIR OPERATIONAL COUNTERPARTS...SOME CONSIDERATION TO 27/00Z. THE
OPERATIONALS DID A NICE JOB WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PRIMARY
CYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WITH THE CYCLONE'S INTERACTION
WITH THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCK. AFTER 27/00Z...HOWEVER...THE
PERSPECTIVES AND DETAILS WERE TOO 'ILL-DEFINED' TO REASON FOR
THEIR (THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS) CONTINUED USE. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE IN TERMS OF STORM TRACK AND DEPTH AFTER 27/06Z.

DAYS 3-4...ANTICIPATE ANOTHER WINTER STORM FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MIDWEST. A COARSE BLEND OF THE 00Z/06Z GUIDANCE GENERATES A
SUB 1000MB CYCLONE TRACK FROM WICHITA KS TO KALAMAZOO MI. IT IS
AFTER 27/00Z...WHEN THE GFS AND ECMWF PART WAYS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
THE DEPTH AND TRACK OF THIS STORM SYSTEM.

BEYOND DAY 5...THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE BLOCK ALLOWS THE DAY 3/4
CYCLONE TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MIDWEST TO STALL AND THE
(PRIMARY) SURFACE REFLECTION TO WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THE CYCLONE DIES OR THE STORM IS OVER.
RATHER...THE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE SEPARATES FROM THAT SURFACE
WAVE...AND BECOMES THE 'DRIVER' FOR A DEEP INTRUSION OF NORTHWEST
FLOW ORIGINATING IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO. A SERIES OF DECENT
LAKE-EFFECT SNOWFALLS ARE IN THE OFFING. THIS LEANS MORE TOWARDS
THE SLOWER...LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION VS THE GFS.
DOWNSTREAM...THIS SETS UP A COLD AND WINTRY...(NORTHWEST FLOW)
PRECIPITATION REGIME FOR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND DOWNWIND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE.

OF NOTE...REGENERATION OF A SERIES OF SECONDARY SURFACE WAVES
ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES IS A VERY
REASONABLE CONCLUSION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL PORTION OF THE CYCLONE
REMAINING IN PLACE BEYOND DAY 4.5 AND LIKELY TO WOBBLE IN
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST THROUGH DAY 7.

THE DETAILS WITH PERIODS OF ONSHORE FLOW...WINTER P-TYPE
PRECIPITATION EVENTS FOR COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC APPEAR TO BE TIED TO THE SLOW...EAST-NORTHEAST
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL PORTION OF THE CYCLONE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THOSE DETAILS WERE POORLY HANDLED BY THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS.

VOJTESAK

 

[packbacker]

that blocking high south of Greenland just stops the GL low in its tracks. it just wont go away.

 

It's hard to imagine a winter storm with that titanic of a low over the lakes, that's just a killer for anything other than flurries.  It seems to want to lay down some roots there.

[burgertime]

Man GFS looks really close but it's showing nothing at the surface. 

[franklin NCwx]

Nothing can amplify with the upper low stuck over the lakes. Southern stream where are you?

[packbacker]

When I look at the GFS for the next 8+ days and have to live through cold/dry I really wish we could have last March's weather...

 

 

[packbacker]

Nothing can amplify with the upper low stuck over the lakes. Southern stream where are you?

 

Disappointing looking at that setup, nothing is going to amplify with that low over the lakes, and with the crazy blocking it's not going anywhere.  Bring on spring.

[burgertime]

This run of the GFS looks to be all about the near misses. We'll see if it blows something up after truncation. 

[franklin NCwx]

Disappointing looking at that setup, nothing is going to amplify with that low over the lakes, and with the crazy blocking it's not going anywhere.  Bring on spring.

If only that low could be over eastern Canada, or Maine.

[burgertime]

If only that low could be over eastern Canada, or Maine.

 

I'll buy that low parking there when it actually happens. GFS has not exactly been stellar with placement of northern energy this year. 

[Chattownsnow]

If only that low could be over eastern Canada, or Maine.

it may be on future runs. we just have to wait it out. and like others have said if it doesn't scoot out sooner. it has to eventually and maybe that will be our window.